[[Ooookay, here we go. Before today's catch-up, I want to address something I've been considering very heavily. Please keep in mind that I only have the tiniest sliver of info regarding anything that happened
today (meaning since thread re-opened again roughly 8 hours ago), and all of what I
do have was learned very hastily during my half-hour lunch break in which I was posting earlier, so everything in this post is essentially void of info from page like. 42 onwards. I will address and correct things as necessary as I resume catch-up, but for now, I just want to get this out there for people to discuss. I'm going to line up several post quotes in a row to clarify my thoughts since they all relate to the same topic. I had this thought at the tail end of D2, and I spent a large portion of Saturday night/Sunday morning forming this into a coherent thought. Bear with me for today’s first incoming longpost.
[[Oh, hang on. Delayed activation roles aren't in the list of nopes. That was a big feature of Second Anni. Could be the deaths will escalate?]]
"Um, guys? I think the Slakoth is being truthful. I don't want to vote for him. Because I think he's right, about the cults I mean. And yeah, that's plural for a reason."
"The way my card is worded, in one of my abilities it uses the term "factions". That's... What's the word? I dunno, the Boss is the big word using guy."
"Oh yeah, that's it. Binary. It's not "town" and "Mafia" but "factions". All these marks flying around, and people claiming to protect or cure them. And only one kill a night. I think the game involves tagging people and making them part of your team, and then at some point, one team gets big enough and wins. And all these teams don't know how many other teams they're competing against."
Dave paced a rough, agitated circle on the ground. "Okay. This actually kind of ties into something else I was wondering about, which is why would an ability that cures something leave a mark? Something visible during the next day? Snivy even clarified that it doesn't apply some permanent protection that lasts until the next night or anything. So why would that even be a thing? The mark being 'recruitment' into some kind of faction would explain that, I guess." He looked at Snivy. "Have you got any insight on why your power would leave a visible mark? It sure doesn't seem like anyone else's power has been doing that so far."
"So far that makes sense, at least for any sort of affliction status. Dread, Strings, and whatever the Alolan Meowth got from the Quagsire last night. They were all announced to the player.
On the other hand, protection seems to be more obscure. The diamond being the biggest source of confusion. Sure it became an actual mark, but Delcatty wasn't informed about what it was even called, unlike the other statuses. And then the Slakoth's power, again is more stealthy, probably to prevent those who can protect from being targeted themselves."
[[I may be asleep before EOD, so I'm going to lock in a protective vote now just in case I'm not here!]]
vote: Nanu/Blossomleaf
[[I like Nanu's solvyness and the questions he's been asking, feels pro-town to me so far. ^^ Good vibes!]]
She glared at the slakoth. "I still do not trust him. I don't understand why it took him so long to clarify anything about his role... Wait." Mademoiselle looked at the snivy, then back at the slakoth.
Wouldn't that mean that the snivy is the one capable of curing whatever the slakoth inflicts on others?"
"Snivy, I know you're always tied in with the Slakoth in the discussion of your powers. Do you have any reasons why you don't trust anything the Slakoth had said?
Do you think you both have protection powers? I still can't understand why the Slakoth would bring up cults if they themselves were a cult leader. Can someone explain this to me?"
Okay, obviously, all of the above posts relate to the same topic: sans/Bluwii’s role. Here’s what we’ve come up with. I’ll interject with some outsider thoughts, but for now… Kimiko, if you please. ]]
The snivy nodded as she addressed the gathered. “Sans/Bluwii is not a cult leader. He's an
arsonist." She held out her leafy hands in front of her to stop anyone from interrupting. "I know, I know. My guardian fucked this up HARD in a previous game [[second anniversary]], but hear us out, alright? Arsonist!sans would explain why mafia tried to set him up as a red herring, and yet no one came to his defense – he’s not actually mafia, so
they had no reason to defend him, and he already had people side-eyeing him, so he was an easy target. Being third party is also why he had no one
else coming to his defense either, and yet the linoone did. Most everyone else was already busy questioning his lack of clarity at this point, and it was because of that lack of clarity that he hadn’t made any friends to that point.”
She held up a leafy hand, sticking up a finger. “First of all, what got us started on this line of thinking was that I suspected
Puck/ Yellow might have been an arsonist. My role makes it pretty clear that we do have one somewhere, as I'm pretty sure cultist stings are not something I can cure, although... I'll ask about this one later. Puck/Yellow claims to have targeted Laura/Jackie. She also claims to be unblockable, but that her target can (possibly) be swapped/redirected, based on the fact that it wasn’t addressed in her role PM; this tracks with an arsonist. Laura/Jackie later confirms that she was targeted by
something. I can see the misplay/misdirection of Puck/Yellow thinking their prime might have been swapped, and for whatever reason, left a visible mark on the person it got swapped to (Ajia/Chibi).”
She turned her attention to Puck. “There’s a few flaws in this reasoning, however, and remember, these are
before today when Puck/Yellow claimed what their role supposedly can do; firstly, [[according to the wiki]], the person who is primed
does not know it. So unless that’s been changed for this game [[which I assume to
not be the case due to the “no hidden abilities/lying GM” rule in effect]], there’s no reason for Laura/Jackie to know that Yellow had primed them - and also why I don't think I can cure cultist strings. Secondly, as far as I can tell, the name of the status effect that my power cures has nothing to do with the patron that Yellow claims to have, so from a lore perspective I can’t imagine how it would make sense for mine to counter hers.” [[I’ve been debating whether or not to reveal the name of the status I can cure, but at this point I’m glad I haven’t, as it’s given me a small advantage right here; no one can pretend to know what I can cure and thus lie about their own patron accordingly.]] “I’m still not entirely sure how Puck/Yellow connected this specific diamond-shaped mark to
her ability/patron
before assuming it was the work of another player, but that’s another topic.”
“Anyway, with that dead end, the topic of conversation had shifted to sans/Bluwii, and I got to thinking about all the questions surrounding them and their ability. Supposedly, it leaves an invisible mark on someone, and they have no idea what it does nor do they know they’re even marked. This also tracks with an arsonist. The difference here is, I believe Bluwii is being honest about having to vote in order to prime someone. We know for a fact that a vote-activated, negative utility power is a thing right off the bat thanks to Dave’s dread and miller ability. Sans/Bluwii would have to have found a reason to justify why he’s casting seemingly questionable votes. Saying he has a
different vote-activated negative utility power, but lying about what it does, is a logical way of going about this. The catch, however, lies in the fact that he stated his mark can’t protect against another specific type of mark – the one of the patron that he suspects I have. But as was pointed out, my mark is also one of protection. Why would one protection mark be ineffective against… another protection mark? It makes absolutely no sense, unless
his marks are the ones I can cure.”
“As a reminder of my ability; A few people, myself included, have speculated that it sounds very similar to a firefighter. Someone leaves a status on others, that my ability can cure (among other things). Bluwii claims his power causes a mark that leaves no trace, and the person who gets it has no idea they’re even marked (at least, that’s the idea – with Bluwii having to spill his role, he had to make it something that we’d believe while still being able to perform it without drawing unwanted attention). This lines up with how an arsonist’s role works. Also the fact that the people getting strings are different than the people sans/Bluwii has voted for implies that they're not connected. Why would his power protect from marks, only for another ability of his to... mark people with strings? He specifically says people he targets don't know they've been targeted, yet the strings are visible to anyone who gets them?“
“Now, due to some confusion over patrons with Puck/Yellow’s false swapping debacle, Bluwii claims his marks don’t work on one specific patron’s effects, and he thinks that one is mine. Given that mine can cure something, and his won’t interact with them (or, well, mine will override his, in a way), it’s logical to assume that ‘s because Bluwii’s invisible marks are arsonist primes, while my marks are removing those primes.” She turned and looked up into Sidney’s eyes as she added, “You asked why I think my marks are visible while others aren’t? I suspect they may be visible to all players to alert the arsonist in question who was targeted/cured so that they don’t think they have some and go to ignite and find that they only killed one instead of four players or something like that. I admit it’s not the best reasoning, but given that I wasn’t actually given a reason on my patron’s card, it’s the best explanation I’ve got. Call it
my negative utility, I guess. Most every role revealed so far has had some negative utility to it, mine is that it gives away who I'm targeting every day. I will also reiterate [[because I know I've stated this several times]] that
this light mark does have a secondary effect, however I currently have zero way to know whether or not it's doing anything so I'd rather not say what it is.”
She paused a moment before continuing, still looking up at the cacturne. “With that said, I don’t really believe Sidney/Pano’s suggestion that we have multiple cults vying for recruits. We have no other
proof that multiple cults exist, at least as of yet. [[No second strings, etc.]] Furthermore, why would one recruitment method be visible to others/the person who got targeted, but not a different method? I can see why this might lead some people to believe
my mark might be another recruitment ability, but I feel that my previous statements already defend themselves... but I’ll reiterate them here just so I’m laying all my cards on the table. My marks are not ‘cured’ to my knowledge. They vanish on their own, which was proven today." She paused and pointed towards Ajia. "It wouldn’t make sense for a protective ability to be ‘cured’.
The strings have to be cured. Why wouldn’t there be consistency on how the roles work if they’re the same role just flavored differently?” [[We’re actually just assuming this; did Dave get any confirmation that his strings are something that can be removed somehow? I wouldn't imagine they're permanent, at least in the "they have to be removed" kind of way. Definitely sure they're permanent in a "these won't go away on their own like the light marks do" kind of way. ]]
She then turned her attention on the yveltal. “The fact that Mademoiselle /Inke already pointed some of this out [[specifically that Bluwii’s patron card is a direct opposite to my own, by Bluwii’s own admission]] makes me feel far more confident in myself, too, especially given that Inke is being read as town by numerous sources that I’ve been inclined to trust previously.” [[Side note to this: I know I’m very poor at posting my own readlists, but count Inke among my townreads. Not
just for coming to a similar conclusion before me; this simply solidifies it for me.]]
Again, she shifted to look at Sidney, deep in thought as she carefully considered how to phrase the next part of her monologue. “You asked why I didn’t trust sans. I hope this clears it up. I don’t believe he’s a second cult leader, I believe he's an
arsonist. I… admittedly have no idea what patron might be a counter to mine. My best guess would be perhaps lunala? They’re from the same, uh... "region", and… while it’s a little bit of a stretch, I
can see a connection between lunala and the name of the arsonist ability. Either way, I don’t think their patron is relevant at this point, unless we’re worried about what
other abilities the slakoth may possess. [[I’d also like to note something vaguely related at this point, in reply to Pano’s concern over what’s considered a faction: Town and Mafia can be described as two factions. Binary, yes, but still factions. Adding one or two more doesn’t change this fact. I don’t think this is an avenue worth attention. ]]
Her next target was Dave. “To address your concern that my own mark is a different type of cult recruitment… I don’t have any concrete way to prove it’s not.
I know it’s not. I’ll reiterate that my marks only last for a single day, and vanish after that. Unless I’m mistaken, your strings won’t just go away, they need to be cured. It just… it doesn’t make sense to me as a recruitment method to be temporary. Note that Ajia’s light mark is now gone, and I’m willing to bet she can answer whether or not she’s changed factions. I suppose, if that's not proof enough... I can try targeting someone who has strings tonight, and see if they go away tomorrow? Which reminds me,
those of you with strings, how were you informed? Was in more like "you have strings in your head"? Or was it more like "you're inflicted with X, which is..." ? Does this string effect have a name, that you know of? Because if anyone can tell me the name of the strings' affliction and it matches the one I can cure, then I can start doing that. And if it doesn't, or it doesn't have a name, well... chances are it's not the thing I can cure anyway, which backs up my claim of arsonist!sans rather than cult-leader!sans.
The snivy started pacing, as another thought came to her that she hadn't previously considered. "Fuck, if sans claims to be able to prevent against marks, I should have asked Dave/Free to target Nanu/Blossom last night. If Blossom got dread marks, we could have had a verified answer if sans/Bluwii is telling the truth! Fuuuuuck why didn't I think of that sooner...??"
[[ It's okay, calm down. I hadn't thought of that either. Go ahead, continue. ]]
Kimiko stopped pacing to stare at her guardian stone, then sighed. Her gaze jumped between Arctozolt and Nanu. “Right. One more thing to address regarding this topic, then: This suspicion I have is why I chose to mark Arctozolt/Bench last night. If my suspicion is accurate, they were primed by Bluwii’s first vote, and so I’m hoping to have cleared them.” [[In addition, Arctozolt/Bench had stated to have something to contribute today, and I’m hoping that I’m correct and was able to cure them.]]
“I will also point out, however, that somewhere in the confusion [[which I have quoted above]], sans/Bluwii has sneakily placed and then redacted [[?? Did he, actually? Will have to go back to confirm this, I can't recall ]] a vote on Nanu/Blossom seemingly out of nowhere. He defends this by saying he likes the questions they’ve been asking and they feel town to him, and that he voted for them in order to confer their “protective” invisible mark. Blossom/Nanu’s also a player who isn’t really high on many other player’s radars at the moment [[well, at least in terms of sus or town... they certainly got a fair bit of attention
now, considering the back-and-forth this afternoon]], which means he likely wouldn't get much attention in the night. It also means he’s a good target to prep a kill on for later; My guess is that sans/Bluwii assumes the more juicy targets will be taken out before he has to bother wasting a prime/ignite on them [[such as the oft-targeted Ajia/Chibi or Dave/Free]], so he's planning
now for the future kills with his targets.”
She signed, then cast a pleading look at the crowd. “Listen guys, I swear I’m on to something with this. It all
fits! Please give me your thoughts and input. Have I missed/not answered/misinterpreted something?”
[[Well done, Kimiko. And you kept your cool the whole time, good job.
I have a couple of final thoughts on this topic, however:
In light of arsonist!sans, I’m slightly less wary of Yellow/Puck than I was before this epiphany, but she’s still highest of my scum suspect reads. She could be telling the truth, but she’s also proven to be a very skilled liar and could be entirely faking it, and the drawn-out confusion with my light mark doesn’t make me feel better about things. After combing through every page after D2, there wasn’t a single thing among anything she said that makes me feel better about her. Her defense amounted to little more than an “oops looks like I was wrong about the swap, sorry” and that was it, and goes on to discuss the rest of the drama going on. Her willingness to claim her patron and test the strings theory was bold, though, and her argument with Blossom over inactives felt genuine and town-y; if she were mafia, I don't think she'd have gone this hard on inactives. For any
scumbuddy inactives, she'd just have all of scum-chat on their backs at night telling them to step the fuck up and start posting, and she wouldn't need to care that anyone else is quiet, so I don't think she'd have gone on that huge salty rant about it because for mafia!yellow, it would be largely irrelevant. I'll have to re-evaulate her posts from today after the day officially opened to get a better opinion.
I'm still unsure of why she would assume her power was connected to my diamond-shaped marking? (This was before I pointed out that the “light” part of the description was relevant.) Okay, so she can block someone and then they get to act twice. There's no hidden properties of your power in your role PM, so why would she assume it was hers if it wasn't stated to be an effect? I honestly feel she’s my highest scumread right now. In part due to this whole debacle, but admittedly also due to the lack of any other solid leads at this point (arsonist!sans not withstanding).
On the other hand, I’ll also reluctantly acknowledge the fact that
I’ve scumread Yellow before and been incorrect about it.
Finally; I am 100% willing to put sans/Bluwii on the back burner if we agree that someone is very likely scum before end of day. It's pretty obvious that, whatever sans/Bluwii is up to with their power, that I can counter it, so I can keep them in check while we take down other
actual scum, who are probably higher priority right now. That said, if we don't have any better options, I'm gunning for sans/Bluwii, and until/unless that changes, my vote will remain on them.
So… that’s it, I guess. Thoughts?
]]
