Before going into the main Players of the Day: some extraneous reads:
Not a full list, but here are some guys I've so far. These are all guys I find more likely to be innocent than the other way around.
Firstly, having been scumbuddies with Windskull twice, I think that their playstyle leans more innocent. When scum, they go more flying-under-the-radar, while this time around they seem more opinionated to me.
I also think that Wes and uA are more likely innocent. uA because I like their logic. Wes's logic, I find kinda faulty, but
not in a scummy way. They seem too aggressive and too faulty in a way; if they were scum, I think they would have been given guidance from their team and thus would be somewhat more reigned in.
(quick interlude, I realize I've been operating on a mafia/town dichotomy. umm, by more innocent rn at least I only mean not-screaum, idk about SK)
(fascinating misspelling of scum. head-hurty please give me leeway)
I think one of the most interesting things to analyze about the AbraPunk/Homestar debacle is that, assuming Homestar is telling the truth about the bulletproof gambit, the mafia probably would have assumed that he was legitimately the town rolecop and had a legitimate serial killer check on AbraPunk, unless AbraPunk was mafia. In either case, the mafia, in that situation, would have a vested interest in going for the Homestar train over the AbraPunk train, once there were doubts about Homestar to speak of, while up to that point probably acting in favor of eliminating AbraPunk (either because they assume she's legitimately the serial killer and want her gone, or because if AbraPunk gets lynched and turns out to be scum, which seems very likely when there's an apparent redcheck on her, you really don't want to have been defending her the whole time for nebulous reasons). (If Abra is the serial killer, they want them both gone, but if there's a legitimate claimed rolecop who just caught genuine scum, they will probably be targeted by doctors if they survive the day and require a juggernaut kill, whereas the mafia would merrily be able to nightkill presumed serial killer AbraPunk after eliminating Homestar.)
I was going to write more about this, but brain is not liking me whoops. Anyway, I like this logic.
The key players in this drama (Mike, Sind, Kent/Kurt):
Mike is a la sigh. Though actually...I'm kind of more inclined to believe less sus. Before, I wasn't very sure whether innocent or guilty. It was just that lying about Abra being SK would have been a baffling play for a Mafia to make, so I assumed he was telling the truth. With his confession...ahhhh. I think we've covered it wasn't a very good play, but now we're in the realm of,
okay now why would the Mafia do this. That would be two baffling plays neither of which would have helped Mafia long-term. For now, inclined to beleave him.
For Kurt--Kent--Kert??--THAT LIL SNOT--just saying if they're innocent, I wouldn't blame them for lightly claiming Lovers if they're about to be mislynched. That play could have made the Mafia waste a shot or even Juggernaut on them, which I approve. So I don't find their softclaim very scummy even if false.
50/50 on my vote between Kent/Abra and Mike/Homestar, only because if we lynch Kent/Abra based on Mike/Homestar's claim, and the claim turns out to be false, then we just turn for Mike/Homestar, but in that case we're down an innocent. On the other hand, if the claim turns out to be true, we down the SK. I need some more defense from Kent/Abra because I haven't seen enough.]]
"I considered that vital information, yes, but nothing that needed to be shared yet. Even as Kent falsely claimed lover while we were debating whether to lynch him or Mike, my goal was for the mafia to hopefully off him while we took down Mike, eliminating both the imminent threats in the process, without me having to paint a target on my back so early on by revealing this information, and hopefully using it later."
Right now I'm leaning for a
Clovis/Sinderella vote, because knowing that Kent wasn't a Lover makes how they leaned toward Mike making no sense. The argument for Mike being Mafia was he was a Mafia Role Cop who scoped Abra being a townie role (like Cop or Lover). Obviously, she could narrow Lover down. She could also believe that Abra was the SK but then...
What evidence would she have against Mike?
She says that she considered both a threat, I cannot see how Mike and Kent could
both be Mafia. Abra could be a Serial Killer, but then if you believe that you do believe Mike is telling the truth, thus there's no evidence to be being a scum, thus why is he sus more than anyone else, especially enough to want to risk a potential Town Power Role? If you don't think Mike's guilty, why vote him over Abra? If you think Abra's innocent, why were you hoping the Mafia would do a nightkill? The only person Town would like to be nightkilled is the SK, which Abra would be no more likely to be than anyone else. This is like trying to choose the way to be
most likely to get rid of an innocent.
Also, she initially claimed vanilla, but she also didn't know that vanillas are informed. Wait, something just occurred me. Honestly don't know if it's wise to bring this up, but screw it I feel like the Mafia would figure this out anyway during the night. A way Sinderella wouldn't know vanillas are informed and who are the Lovers are, are if
she's one of the Lovers.
That... makes me more hesitant to vote. But I don't like their story so *nervous giggling*.
Some other points of discussion:
People have pointed out me being less active, which (besides head hurty) I think is due to 1) Batholomew being Bartholomew--it's perfectly possible for a character such as nem to still contribute, but I may be getting the balance wrong--and 2) I actually was kind of trying to be less active, so that the newbies could have a chance to be more active, at least in the first half of the days.
Anyway, I think this criticism is very fair, and I don't consider anyone sussing me sus themself for it. During the night phase, I'll think some on how I want to do my playstyle.
[[F-Four? This setup typically maxes at 2 kills per night, only hitting 3 when Lovers go down. Unless I've misunderstood something badly, we should never have 4 because the Juggernaut needs to use up the Mafia's factional kill to activate their power. The doctor should be almost certainly be protecting you (<- Doctor read this) and Lovers are an absolute waste of a Juggernaut so we should two tops tonight unless scum gets real lucky guessing your partner... which is becoming increasingly likely with the claims today...
Just saying, another possible way that we could have more deaths is if we're doing healer clash again. That is something to worry about. I kinda don't think there's actively going to be a scum healer if only because that was a thing in the last game (where Namo was Mafia with me), but that
is still something to worry about.
Since we have some newbies around, we may want to offer advice in this case? I didn't actually do this last time obvi, but I said that a possible good strat was doing it semi-random. The Healer chooses players that might be hit, weights them for how likely, and then choose randomly among that weighted list. I think that's the best way we don't screw ourselves over trying to psych each other out.
For example, say we know a Lover, a Cop, and 3 guys we think are pretty good. Vanilla get one weight, roles 2. If my math is okay (not my strong point tbh) There's only a ~8% chance we overdose one of our roles. However, a 4/7 a power role the Mafia targets is protected. I think. Actually I'm questioning my calculations--uhhh blame my migraine and feel free to critique strategy.
