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[COMPLETE] THE MADEMOISELLE'S BANQUET (December Mafia)—GAME THREAD

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
[[While I potentially believe you, from what I've read on the wiki, an Absorber is a passive role to start. Meaning on N0 you should have had no powers. Yet I tracked you moving that night, going to Free. How can you explain this?]]
[[HMMM okay this is a very good point and idk if Seren will be able to reply to it before EoD. If Seren flips scum, that pretty much exonerates Pano because Pano’s been gunning for Seren HARD all D3. If Seren is innocent, though…Pano is most definitely scum and should be our first vote the next day.]]
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
[[This would likely mean Negrek is innocent, too, since Pano has very assertively gunned for both of them as scum.]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[I can only go off of what my tracking reports give me, and try to work backwards from there. It's not a foolproof system, but based on everything I've seen, it's the best I've got.

Yellow, I'm not asking you to reveal anything, but is there anything left in your bag of tricks that we can use to have a better plan going into tonight?]]
 

Sinderella

Angy Tumbleweed
Staff
Location
In Guzma's Closet
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. sylveon-shiny
  2. gothitelle
  3. froslass
  4. chandelure
  5. mimikyu
The issue with this is that we would just have to take yours and Minty’s word for it. There isn’t a mechanical way for use to prove Minty will actually block you aside from your word and theirs. And since we still don’t know who to trust yet…I’d rather have Minty block Negrek with both blocks, I think?
[[Well this is also why I offered that Pano track Minty and Minty either use one block on me and one block on Negrek, or now, I guess both on Negrek because it is indeed probably the safest bet. I’m not really worried about getting shot, I’m worried about clearing myself so you guys DO NOT mislynch me if Seren flips innocent.


This is making me side-eye Pano again. Pano says she was boosted last night and used that to accuse Negrek of killing Jackie…but what if she just shot Jackie twice instead?]]
I need to go back and read Pano’s full tracker report but are you implying that Pano used the boost to kill Jackie INSTEAD of track two targets???]]


N0: I tracked Seren to DragonFree
N1: I tracked Yellow but was given a "No Result" which can only be returned if I am blocked, or Yellow is a Ninja.
N1: After I got back my tracking result, I was informed that I was now "Motivated" and could use my powers twice the following night
N2: I tracked Seren again, this time they did not go anywhere (which is now confirmed to be because of Minty's interference)
N2: My second action that night, I tracked Wind/Negrek to Jackie.
 

Sinderella

Angy Tumbleweed
Staff
Location
In Guzma's Closet
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. sylveon-shiny
  2. gothitelle
  3. froslass
  4. chandelure
  5. mimikyu
[[That’s also why I’m saying that if you have SOME MEANS of tracking Pano, to see what she does, you should do that]]
 

Negrek

komorebi
Staff
[[

I am catching up on the thread and writing a post, but I did want to start with asking something quick... Why are people suggesting that Minty double block someone? I'm not sure what that would accomplish, because blocking doesn't stack... A person with two actions still can't do anything if they get blocked a single time, and a Strong action cannot be blocked, no matter how many blocks you throw on a single player.

My immediate thought is that if Minty's town, they need to block the two people they feel are most likely to be mafia. Unless I misunderstand how Tetra's role works, and you get two uses but only a single target?

]]
 

MintyMimix

Otherworldly Dessert
Location
Florida
Pronouns
They/Them
Partners
  1. lurantis
  2. noivern-astrea
[[

I am catching up on the thread and writing a post, but I did want to start with asking something quick... Why are people suggesting that Minty double block someone? I'm not sure what that would accomplish, because blocking doesn't stack... A person with two actions still can't do anything if they get blocked a single time, and a Strong action cannot be blocked, no matter how many blocks you throw on a single player.

My immediate thought is that if Minty's town, they need to block the two people they feel are most likely to be mafia. Unless I misunderstand how Tetra's role works, and you get two uses but only a single target?

]]
((The reason for the double block suggestion is based on the suspicion of a Deflector/Bus Driver's existence while Jackie was still alive. While it is probable that Gojira was the deceiver role, we cannot confirm this entirely. If Seren turned up as Mafia, then that leaves only one Mafia - who may or may not be the deceiver. A double-block would end up expelling the use of the deception while still denying the kill.))
 

Negrek

komorebi
Staff
[[ Not sure I'm reading correctly: are you saying you're worried about a single remaining mafia member with both bus driver and kill powers? Unless Inkedust is running a very different game than usual or something extremely weird we don't know about is in play, they will only be able to kill or swap, not do both. Also, a single roleblock should generally prevent them from using either ability in either case. But since that's your role, if you asked Inkedust about it, she'd probably tell you whether you'd need one or two blocks in that scenario. ]]
 

MintyMimix

Otherworldly Dessert
Location
Florida
Pronouns
They/Them
Partners
  1. lurantis
  2. noivern-astrea
[[ Not sure I'm reading correctly: are you saying you're worried about a single remaining mafia member with both bus driver and kill powers? Unless Inkedust is running a very different game than usual or something extremely weird we don't know about is in play, they will only be able to kill or swap, not do both. Also, a single roleblock should generally prevent them from using either ability in either case. But since that's your role, if you asked Inkedust about it, she'd probably tell you whether you'd need one or two blocks in that scenario. ]]
((Actually, I'm not sure of that to be honest. I'll ask.))
 

MintyMimix

Otherworldly Dessert
Location
Florida
Pronouns
They/Them
Partners
  1. lurantis
  2. noivern-astrea
((Right so I was mistaken on my part then. Clarification I got from Inke is as follows: Killing is an ability, regardless of faction. As such, Mafia acting alone cannot Kill and use another ability in the same night. A player with a separate role is "unlikely" to also be able to kill.

[My conclusion: This also means that kills can be Roleblocked so long as it is targeting the mafia acting to kill, and Roleblocking once on a person is sufficient.]))
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
Yellow, I'm not asking you to reveal anything, but is there anything left in your bag of tricks that we can use to have a better plan going into tonight?]]
[[I do! However what I decide to do will depend on how Seren flips]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[

I am catching up on the thread and writing a post, but I did want to start with asking something quick... Why are people suggesting that Minty double block someone? I'm not sure what that would accomplish, because blocking doesn't stack... A person with two actions still can't do anything if they get blocked a single time, and a Strong action cannot be blocked, no matter how many blocks you throw on a single player.

My immediate thought is that if Minty's town, they need to block the two people they feel are most likely to be mafia. Unless I misunderstand how Tetra's role works, and you get two uses but only a single target?

]]
[[for clarification I asked Inke about this 2x boost when I found out I had it, and Inke said that if I were blocked or interfered with, it would only affect one action of the two. But maybe that's a different scenario. I only have one ability that I'm using twice vs having two abilities and choosing one to act on.

Thank you for the clarification about what blocking can do on a Mafia member who could either use their role or kill. Sounds like then we only have to block someone once. (Though the use of the word "unlikely" makes me nervous lol)]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[I do! However what I decide to do will depend on how Seren flips]]
[[Ah, very good! In light of the news that we might only have to block someone once to nullify night actions, let us know if any new strategy we come up with will interfere with what you want to do.]]
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
[[Ah, very good! In light of the news that we might only have to block someone once to nullify night actions, let us know if any new strategy we come up with will interfere with what you want to do.]]
[[Sounds good!]]
 

Negrek

komorebi
Staff
((Right so I was mistaken on my part then. Clarification I got from Inke is as follows: Killing is an ability, regardless of faction. As such, Mafia acting alone cannot Kill and use another ability in the same night. A player with a separate role is "unlikely" to also be able to kill.

[My conclusion: This also means that kills can be Roleblocked so long as it is targeting the mafia acting to kill, and Roleblocking once on a person is sufficient.]))

[[for clarification I asked Inke about this 2x boost when I found out I had it, and Inke said that if I were blocked or interfered with, it would only affect one action of the two. But maybe that's a different scenario. I only have one ability that I'm using twice vs having two abilities and choosing one to act on.

Thank you for the clarification about what blocking can do on a Mafia member who could either use their role or kill. Sounds like then we only have to block someone once. (Though the use of the word "unlikely" makes me nervous lol)]]
[[ Good to know, thanks! Minty's answer is pretty much what I suspected, Pano's is not... but I don't think it changes how I would plan to do anything, since Minty's the one with two actions and wouldn't be blocking themselves anyway, lol.

almost done with my goddamn post]]
 

Negrek

komorebi
Staff
[[

Ah, well, at least Seren't post didn't completely upend everything. A relief to only have a couple pages to look at today. On the other hand, it pretty much comes down to whether Seren is lying and made a mistake by claiming Absorber without realizing the contradiction with Pano's N0 tracking result, or whether Pano is lying and made a mistake by claiming a visit result on a player with a passive role.

...which is a tough call for me, tbh. From my perspective, the only seriously major suspicious thing Seren's done is defend Shini. Plus that if Pano's telling the truth, his claim above doesn't work! While on the opposite side, Pano's play has felt off to me from what I've backread of the game. Plus, of course, if Seren's telling the truth above, her claim doesn't work! I do know that her explanation for what's gone on in the game so far is incorrect, since I'm not mafia, but unfortunately it does fit nicely and I can't find any direct contradictions, I guess except Seren's . But something has to be wrong there. On the whole I just feel worse about her than I do about Seren. Although it may certainly be bias, since Seren's posted so much less and so has had fewer opportunities to screw up!

Buuuut I'll also be real and say that I fear a scum team with Pano on it more than one with Seren on it. I think Pano is an overall safer lynch, and one that helps a lot with resolving the game state. People seem pretty dead-set on lynching Seren at this point, so I doubt it matters, but

Vote: Panoramic_Vacuum
@Inkedust

But I will assume Seren's getting lynched today. In light of that, what should we do at night?

If Seren flips innocent, things could get pretty bad! I think that would pretty much confirm Pano as scum, with either Sind or Minty as a partner. Pano/Minty is the worst possible scenario, as Minty can shoot twice and may be able to strongshot someone; one way or another they'll get at least one death. If they managed to get shots off on two different (non-Sind, who'd be innocent in this scenario) people, it would just come down to whether I picked the right heal target and/or whether Yellow could prevent it somehow. If not, that mafia team wins tomorrow night.

If the scum are Sind/Pano, then Minty has to choose between me, Sind, and Pano as block targets. We could end up with either one or zero dead based on who Minty picks and if I'm on point with my heal and unblocked. I guess in this scenario Minty should just make whatever they think the most correct blocks are and then hopes to live until tomorrow to report who they blocked, and if so we can try to sort out what went down from there. One way or another, in this scenario I think we need to lynch Pano tomorrow regardless and then sort out me/Sind the day after. Lots of uncertainty, it pretty much sucks. However, there's at least no way for scum to outright win tomorrow night in this scenario unless they've been sitting on a big secret power. But we will need to lynch correctly tomorrow or straight lose. If anyone has suggestions for mitigating risk in this scenario, I'm all ears.

If Seren's innocent I don't think there's really much we *can* do to confirm anyone's roles, except potentially in the case of Sind/Pano scumteam and Minty blocking them as outlined above. There are too many unknowns. I think the best thing to do is if Minty's Town, they block the two people they're most suspicious of from among me, Sind, and Pano--if they guess right and nobody dies, there's very likely at least one scum among those two. I think that if Pano's Town, her general best bet is to track Minty, as insurance against Minty dying or scum!Minty lying about targets. This is not perfect because scum!Pano could always lie about tracking targets, but I don't see any way to get around that; just something we'd need to be aware of and pick through on the following day. I think my best play is always just to heal whoever I think most likely to die tomorrow night, easy enough. And if Sinderella's town she should, of course, just chill. :p

At this point I'm simply leaving Tetra and Yellow out of the equation, unless anyone thinks there's a reason to keep them in. There is not much known about Yellow's ability at this point, and I think she ought to keep it that way. Since I think she's very, very likely Town, I trust her to use whatever she thinks is best at her discretion. I would also personally suggest that Tetra use her power on Yellow tonight if she uses is on anyone; picking wrong with it tonight would be very bad, and I think everybody else is under at least some degree of suspicion. (Unless it might get weird with Yellow's powers? That'd be for Yellow to say one way or the other if she's concerned.)

If Seren flips mafia, obviously things are a bit easier. The remaining scum is either Minty or Sind (like it could theoretically be Pano, but I don't think it's worth worrying about at that point), but of course we have to try to confirm my role, too. ;) And the remaining scum will only be able to kill, if this game is at all like the other ones that have taken place on TR.

In this case, I think Pano is cleared and should track Minty. Minty should block me and Sind. If someone dies, we know that Minty is scum. (or technically it could be pano/tetra/yellow, but at this point I'm simply discounting that possibility altogether) If someone doesn't die, then if Pano tracked Minty and it says they went nowhere, I think we can identify them as scum. The tracking is just intended to cover the potential case that this is a game where mafia are allowed to abstain from killing. Otherwise, if Pano tracked Minty to me/Sind, and there were no deaths, we know that one of me or Sind (so, Sind) is mafia. And nobody dies! So we can lynch the biggest suspect in the next Day and be in a really good position. Hope for this outcome, lol.

]]
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
I need to go back and read Pano’s full tracker report but are you implying that Pano used the boost to kill Jackie INSTEAD of track two targets???]]
[[Yes, it’s a theory. We’ll see how Seren flips.]]
 

Flyg0n

Flygon connoisseur
Pronouns
She/her
Partners
  1. flygon
  2. swampert
  3. ho-oh
  4. crobat
  5. orbeetle
  6. joltik
  7. salandit
  8. tyrantrum
  9. porygon
[[This is giving me a headache but the gist seems to be that we only need to block one person. In which case, we should block like, Negrek and Sind?

Pano can follow... OH! Pano can follow me. Then Pano needs to be able to tell everyone who I visited. You'll know it can be confirmed truth because you all know I'm town! Alt Pano can follow yellow either.

I think that works

(also I'll try to read Negreks big post but my brain is melting by now]]]
 

Negrek

komorebi
Staff
[[This is giving me a headache but the gist seems to be that we only need to block one person. In which case, we should block like, Negrek and Sind?

Pano can follow... OH! Pano can follow me. Then Pano needs to be able to tell everyone who I visited. You'll know it can be confirmed truth because you all know I'm town! Alt Pano can follow yellow either.

I think that works

(also I'll try to read Negreks big post but my brain is melting by now]]]
[[ I think that works to confirm Pano, but ime if Seren flips mafia Pano's pretty much confirmed anyway and it'd be more valuable for her to track Minty. ]]
 
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