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All right, wrapping up with a look at potential scumteams among Minty, Seren, Pano, and Sind.
Minty/Seren - In this scenario Pano is innocent, so her roleblock report has to be true, but it's possible that some of what else Minty/Seren have said about roleblocking otherwise is false. Is there anyone we'd suspect more/less if Minty's blocks didn't actually land where they claimed? It's possible they hoped that having Seren claim he was roleblocked, then having Minty confirm, would take some of the heat off Seren--it just depends on how much people trusted Minty and what Seren was planning to claim beyond that. But if this is real and the two of them were trying a gambit, it clearly backfired. This is still a dangerous one because Minty at worst has enhanced killpower and at best can probably really screw Town over tomorrow night, but if the vote stands where it is, at least Minty will be alone after a potentially very rough night phase for Town.
Minty/Pano - This is a scary one. This scenario is pretty much what Yellow hypothesized: Motivator let Pano turn a regular factional kill into a strongman last night. In this case, there are two possible outcomes tomorrow night. Best case, mafia don't get to pass the factional kill around as they please and Minty simply gets to screw with Town a lot tomorrow night through double roleblocking. Worst case, mafia can choose who kills, and if Pano was able to Strong off a Motivator charge, then presumably that means another unblockable kill coming our way tomorrow night. I am very, very worried about this one because although less dangerous, it strikes me as more plausible than Minty/Sind. What I'd be curious about in this scenario is why block Seren? Do they know something about him--or think they know something about him--that make him a good block target and someone they're really, really eager to push for a lynch on this day? This is the pair that I'm most hoping will have some light shed on it by Seren's claim.
Minty/Sind - Thiiiiis is possibly the most dangerous combo. In this scenario, Sind is one-shot strongman and used it on Jackie last night. Minty is roleblocker, but in a scenario where the mafia chooses what member kills, they still have the potential to do a strong kill tonight. If this is reality, Minty and Sind are just cheerfully taking advantage of a Town player making a mistake. Seren would be a mislynch, and they have the potential to do a lot of damage. Even if not, they'd be going into the next day in a pretty strong position. These two have been pretty in step throughout the game, but haven't directly interacted much. It would be a very good place for a scum pair to be.
Seren/Pano - Just not possible at this point, I think. Or this is the most intense and rancorous bus I've ever seen.
Seren/Sind - Could be, but feels very unlikely. Of all the scenarios that seem even a little plausible to me, this is the least scary because not only is there no chance of a double kill and no chance of it happening in the future (no way Tetra's gonna target someone claiming OSBP), if the vote stays where it is, Seren's out this day, which leaves Sind in a tight spot staring down a potential roleblock tomorrow night. Hope for this combo, lol. I'm not inclined to worry about it much unless something changes.
Sind/Pano - Seems unlikely in that I can't see why Pano would drive so hard for a mislynch on Seren in this scenario.
I think, for me, it's going to come down to Seren's claim. Does it seem in any way plausible? Does it point towards any of those combos in particular? And how Tetra believes her power interacts with the factional kill. Tetra, could you break that down for me again? I think I need it in small words.
I will admit I'm pretty nervous, because we are not at a point where we can waste lynches. I think I was wrong about the potential to outright lynch wrong and lose at this point, but with the way this game's been going I'm worried that something wacky's going on. I will look over Tetra's plan after I hear Seren's claim and get an explanation of what we should expect from a potential empowered kill tomorrow night. Seems pretty quiet, and I'll be going to bed in the next couple hours, so that will likely happen tomorrow?
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All right, wrapping up with a look at potential scumteams among Minty, Seren, Pano, and Sind.
Minty/Seren - In this scenario Pano is innocent, so her roleblock report has to be true, but it's possible that some of what else Minty/Seren have said about roleblocking otherwise is false. Is there anyone we'd suspect more/less if Minty's blocks didn't actually land where they claimed? It's possible they hoped that having Seren claim he was roleblocked, then having Minty confirm, would take some of the heat off Seren--it just depends on how much people trusted Minty and what Seren was planning to claim beyond that. But if this is real and the two of them were trying a gambit, it clearly backfired. This is still a dangerous one because Minty at worst has enhanced killpower and at best can probably really screw Town over tomorrow night, but if the vote stands where it is, at least Minty will be alone after a potentially very rough night phase for Town.
Minty/Pano - This is a scary one. This scenario is pretty much what Yellow hypothesized: Motivator let Pano turn a regular factional kill into a strongman last night. In this case, there are two possible outcomes tomorrow night. Best case, mafia don't get to pass the factional kill around as they please and Minty simply gets to screw with Town a lot tomorrow night through double roleblocking. Worst case, mafia can choose who kills, and if Pano was able to Strong off a Motivator charge, then presumably that means another unblockable kill coming our way tomorrow night. I am very, very worried about this one because although less dangerous, it strikes me as more plausible than Minty/Sind. What I'd be curious about in this scenario is why block Seren? Do they know something about him--or think they know something about him--that make him a good block target and someone they're really, really eager to push for a lynch on this day? This is the pair that I'm most hoping will have some light shed on it by Seren's claim.
Minty/Sind - Thiiiiis is possibly the most dangerous combo. In this scenario, Sind is one-shot strongman and used it on Jackie last night. Minty is roleblocker, but in a scenario where the mafia chooses what member kills, they still have the potential to do a strong kill tonight. If this is reality, Minty and Sind are just cheerfully taking advantage of a Town player making a mistake. Seren would be a mislynch, and they have the potential to do a lot of damage. Even if not, they'd be going into the next day in a pretty strong position. These two have been pretty in step throughout the game, but haven't directly interacted much. It would be a very good place for a scum pair to be.
Seren/Pano - Just not possible at this point, I think. Or this is the most intense and rancorous bus I've ever seen.
Seren/Sind - Could be, but feels very unlikely. Of all the scenarios that seem even a little plausible to me, this is the least scary because not only is there no chance of a double kill and no chance of it happening in the future (no way Tetra's gonna target someone claiming OSBP), if the vote stays where it is, Seren's out this day, which leaves Sind in a tight spot staring down a potential roleblock tomorrow night. Hope for this combo, lol. I'm not inclined to worry about it much unless something changes.
Sind/Pano - Seems unlikely in that I can't see why Pano would drive so hard for a mislynch on Seren in this scenario.
I think, for me, it's going to come down to Seren's claim. Does it seem in any way plausible? Does it point towards any of those combos in particular? And how Tetra believes her power interacts with the factional kill. Tetra, could you break that down for me again? I think I need it in small words.
I will admit I'm pretty nervous, because we are not at a point where we can waste lynches. I think I was wrong about the potential to outright lynch wrong and lose at this point, but with the way this game's been going I'm worried that something wacky's going on. I will look over Tetra's plan after I hear Seren's claim and get an explanation of what we should expect from a potential empowered kill tomorrow night. Seems pretty quiet, and I'll be going to bed in the next couple hours, so that will likely happen tomorrow?
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