I've gone back to look over what's happened tonight. Particularly, I looked at both DW's and Nuki's posts in isolation. As of right now, I still think Tanuki is the safer lynch, though I'm less certain than before, especially with Phantump's claim.
Based on currently available information, I am almost completely certain that he's telling the truth about his role. Reason: Dawning did not counterclaim that she blocked me, which, if she had, would have been more useful to claim as it would have raised more suspicions. Ergo, we can probably assume Tanuki is being honest about his role. This does not, however, clear him.
By backing up myself and equita, it would have given him a better alibi to fly under the radar for longer.
Now to look at DawningWinds claim. Like I said before, it would have been better for her to claim she blocked me, if she's scum trying to get Tanuki lynched. Reasoning: If she's lying, then there was the chance of being caught by a tracker or watcher. And if Tanuki flips innocent, then it'll be obvious that she's lied. If she's telling the truth, then I believe Tanuki must be telling the truth as well, because it wouldn't explain how I was blocked N0.
It is possible that she's lying and actually targeted me though. It's also possible that she's lying about her role entirely. For all we know, she could be the killer. In which case, she claims that she roleblocked Phantump when, in actuality, she tried to kill phantump and failed because of the bulletproof. This is possible, but seems unlikely. If she really tried to kill phantump, then why bother getting phantump to check and see if She knows when she's been targeted?
... but. it's important to note this: if DW is the killer, she wouldn't have had an action N0. Only N1, which would correspond with her claim of who she targeted. Additionally, this is something that wouldn't be able to be verified by a tracker or watcher. Sort of. A tracker or watcher could have seen her interact with Phantump, but they wouldn't see what she did. If she killed phantump then yeah, it'd be a bit harder to claim. But since phantump didn't die, we can't prove that she actually blocked phantump.
Another, related possibility: Phantump is lying about being bulletproof: Easy role to lie about, but can be somewhat verified by equita's role, provided he doesn't die tonight. If he wants to do that, at least. It doesn't seem like the best use of his role though. Especially since it seems very unlikely.
If everyone thus far is telling the truth, there are a couple of possible scenarios.
1. Waffle, Persephone, or Fusion is the killer. They also targeted phantump.
2. Similar to 1, but one of the remainders is a doctor and happened to target the same player as the killer.
3. Similar to 1, but one of the remainders is a bus driver and happened to swap the target and phantump.
As of right now, I'm about to go to bed. I'll leave my vote on Tanuki for now but may change after I sleep on it.
