Fall 2020 Mafia - Game Thread

[Shiny Phantump]

Wait, so you want me to give the flavour name of my power? I can quote that without getting in trouble, right?

 

[Equitial]

Yes, other people have done that too. Just don't quote any of the description or answers Starlight may have given you.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

“Mastery of Life”

 

[Fusion]

I have also woken up, and I'd really like to push that Nuki not get axed off

1. Waffle, Persephone, or Fusion is the killer. They also targeted phantump.

I have never targeted Phan.

The current theory is she was already hit by mafia, and now you want a vigilante to go after her? I doubt there’s a bulletproof role that lasts more than once. This is just transparently asking someone to kill a townie that you’ve gone out of your way to paint as the killer.

Now I don't normally know a good point when I see one, but this is, in fact, a good point.

I don't have much more to say honestly. Just that I am 99% sure Nuki isn't mafia

 

[Persephone]

I don’t have a counterclaim, no.

 

[Persephone]

I’ll be busy with school shit until ~3 hours before deadline today. Then I hope to give my final thoughts and participate in any last minute debates.

 

[Equitial]

To start, I'm going to think of some reasons why mafia!Tanuki or mafia!DawningWinds would have claimed. For Tanuki, this would have been a very safe roleclaim to prove. I already stated someone had to have blocked Windskull, and I stated I got "No result" from Espeon, so I confirm all of him. It's a scummy role, yes, but he did clear one town (only myself, if Tanuki is innocent Windskull is not in the clear, that was based on assuming the blocker was scum.) It would be a risky move without DW's roleclaim bc his rationales for targeting both Windskull and myself are admittedly shaky, but maybe could have turned out well for mafia!Tanuki.

For mafia!DW, I had to think. They only throw suspicion on themself and throw things into turmoil for coming out with this claim. It wouldn't turn out well for them individually, but maybe if they had a mafia partner who was probably going to get lynched? By coming out, they would throw suspicion on Tanuki, whom they would know to be innocent, and could get an innocent instead of their scum partner lynched.

Before the roleclaims, the person who was mostly likely to be lynched was Persephone, whom DW actually defended in a way I find odd and unconvincing. After Windskull put suspicion on Persephone, DW responded:

I think I see what you mean by similiar but more helpful- last game I remember her being a bit more lurky and not contributing as much, but yeah otherwise pretty similar. She said the last game was her game in a decade, so I'm inclined to think her being more helpful is either her actually being town or her trying to look more town than last time.

Keep in mind myself, Windskull, and Tanuki were also in the last game and find Perse sus. Also, keep in mind this is DawningWinds excusing Perse for being a noob. I called them out for that beforehand, but still. And consider what they said previously:

I'm actually going to agree with this, statistically speaking, anyway. In nearly every game I've been in with a D1 mislynch, there's been exactly one scum on the wagon that lead to said mislynch. It's actually kind of surprising how consistent that is. (Every game I've been in with a scum lynch D1 had had a lot of bussing involved.) I'll be taking a close look at Persephone and Equitia's posts in the morning or afternoon (it's past 1:00 AM for me) to see if I feel like either of them had scum moitivation behind their votes on Del, or anywhere really, just because not every game is the same and if I end up really feeling like they're both town, I'm going to not vote either of them.

Maybe DW is reconsidering their going after noobs, but apparently they find Perse so compelling they're overlooking the fact she was on the Del wagon. Everyone else is suspicious of Persephone, but not DW.

If there's a vig (especially with unlimited shots), I think they should shoot Phantump. While bulletproof is a role that can go either way, if she's lying about it she's probably scum. And if she's not, we know her role for sure. That's not to say I think she's lying, but unless whichever of Tanuki or I is lynched today flips Innocent, there's probably not a better target and having her role absolutely confirmed seems like a good idea.

Also, I don't think it's likely there are any more protection roles if Phantump and Espy are both town. If they are, town has two, plus a roleblocker who can stop kills (regardless of my/Tanuki's alignment). Which means the kill can be stopped ~1/2 the townies (3/8 or 3/7). That's quite a bit, so it's probably safe to say no regular doc in this game unless Phantump or Espy is scum.

Okay, so DW wrote this before Phantump said that they get informed if they're targetted. With the logic in the second paragraph, if Phantump, Espy, and DW are town, then no one stopped the Mafia kill last night. Espy didn't act, Phantump wasn't targetted, and DW hit the townie bulletproof, not mafia. If town has no other healers, we know who the mafia is. Phantump must be lying, or a bus driver switched them, in which case the Bus Driver can come out and say who they switched. Tanuki would be scum too, so we did it, boys! Wonder why DW didn't think of this and isn't pushing harder?

Except I don't think it likely Phantump is lying. Especially considering no one else (cough Persphone) is claiming Bulletproof. Also... Phantump is our best shot if we have a vig? What about Persphone, whom everyone was suspecting before the roleclaim fiasco.

@Persephone. You have a role. Claim it.

And for what it's worth, I think we have another healer. I'm going to read the rest of the thread, but for now DawningWinds.

 

[DawningWinds]

The current theory is she was already hit by mafia, and now you want a vigilante to go after her? I doubt there’s a bulletproof role that lasts more than once. This is just transparently asking someone to kill a townie that you’ve gone out of your way to paint as the killer.

I just want to be thorough- I don't have much of a read on her and nobody else really seems to either. If she's got hm limited shots of bulletproof, she'll no doubt get notified when she's been shot, just so she knows how many we have left. And if she's not the one who got shot, then she's not confirmed bulletproof. Also I made that post at 1:24 AM so I should probably reconsider any thoughts I dropped in it. And I told you, I'm not convinced in the slightest that she's the killer. Just that it was one possibility.

I don’t know who killed me, but I know if my one shot gets used. (I didn’t want to claim one shot last night, because I didn’t want to make myself easy pickings if my one shot was used without me knowing.)

I... didn’t get any notification that my shot was used last night.

I see. One shot isn't something we've had on TR before, but perhaps it's because Star is a different host. That puts that theory out the window.

(For anyone wondering I'm typing this post as I catch up on what happened on the thread while I was asleep so any inconsistencies are due to the fact that new posts change things.)

I have never targeted Phan.

And Phan isn't the one who got shot.

Phan's Bulletproof only being one-shot means vig shotting her to test her claim would not be a very good idea. Definitely don't want to waste that.

And with Bulletproof being one-shot and Espy's role only allowing her to ever protect one person, and Roleblocker not being a direct protection role, that could leave room for one more protection role, possibly, but I still don't think I'd expect an actual doctor. Was babysister on the list of roles? Because if so, I can see that. Maybe even if not, I'm still using Negrek's games for comparison while expecting some deviation, so I wouldn't be shocked if Star used a role that wasn't on the list.

 

[DawningWinds]

Wonder why DW didn't think of this and isn't pushing harder?

Maybe because I'm not the Mafia genius you're all expecting me to be? And because there's no guarantee they both are?

Maybe DW is reconsidering their going after noobs, but apparently they find Perse so compelling they're overlooking the fact she was on the Del wagon. Everyone else is suspicious of Persephone, but not DW.

No, I just didn't get around to looking into you two to decide who to vote (or if I didn't want to) and didn't want to vote without checking. When I didn't have enough time for that level of work yesterday, I decided I was going to fo it today because I have the day off, but then... this happened.

I called them out for that beforehand, but still.

"But still" nothing! I said I was going to make an effort to keep in mind that everyone here is just beginning except me, and that's nothing but proof that I'm trying. People were trying to lynch me because I was failing at that earlier, and now you're trying to use me trying to as evidence to lynch me anyway!

 

[Equitial]

So who do you find suspicious? If we lynch Tanuki and he flips guilty, who should we go after next?

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Something that just occurred to me: If the Mafia Killer and the Vigilante target me, I’m gonna die, right? And then I’m going to look like Mafia because I got night killed with my supposed Mastery of Life still working.

—

As an irl related note, I’m going to step back for an hour or two, because worrying about Mafia is distracting me from the schoolwork that I’m already behind on. I’ll still be back well before end of night, so don’t worry, I can see whatever Pers says and maybe even change my vote if another crazy thing has gone down.

 

[Equitial]

Something that just occurred to me: If the Mafia Killer and the Vigilante target me, I’m gonna die, right? And then I’m going to look like Mafia because I got night killed with my supposed Mastery of Life still working.

Well, you won't look scummy because your role will be revealed upon death. No idea what happens if you're targetted twice in s night, though.

 

[Equitial]

Now to look at DawningWinds claim. Like I said before, it would have been better for her to claim she blocked me, if she's scum trying to get Tanuki lynched. Reasoning: If she's lying, then there was the chance of being caught by a tracker or watcher. And if Tanuki flips innocent, then it'll be obvious that she's lied. If she's telling the truth, then I believe Tanuki must be telling the truth as well, because it wouldn't explain how I was blocked N0.

Meant to put this in later -- DW could not have claimed to have targetted Windskull bc they'd already said a townie blocker doing anything N0 would have been a bad move.

A townie roleblocker probably would've held off night zero, not wanting to blocking a useful information role, especially since there was no nightkill that they had a chance of blocking. Windskull was almost definitely blocked by Mafia.

 

[Tanuki]

I'm not convinced in the slightest that she's the killer. Just that it was one possibility.

So you want a vigilante to target someone you don’t even think is the killer. Mental.

 

[DawningWinds]

So who do you find suspicious? If we lynch Tanuki and he flips guilty, who should we go after next?

I don't know who we should go after next. I hadn't decided who I wanted to vote for the Day when Tanuki went and dropped his claim. Persephone would be someone I'd strongly consider, at least, but I'm not sure. Maybe Waffle- she feels like she's trying to lurk/blend in and I've seen some new townies look like that (but also new scum), so only maybe. Can't think of anyone else in particular right now. I'll probably get a full readslist put together by the end of the day or during the night phase and drop it first thing D3, assuming I'm not dead. I'll try and do it today.

Well, you won't look scummy because your role will be revealed upon death. No idea what happens if you're targetted twice in s night, though.

The first shot takes out the bulletproof and the second kills her, most likely. Which is why I said vig shouldn't shoot her after she claimed one shot.

 

[Equitial]

So you want a vigilante to target someone you don’t even think is the killer. Mental.

Have to agree. Also keep in mind that it's likely we have something like an odd/even-numbered vig or a vig who has only one shot. Maybe only encourage the vig to shoot someone you actually think is scum???

 

[DawningWinds]

Mental.

Accurate.

 

[Tanuki]

Sorry, wanted.

 

[DawningWinds]

Have to agree. Also keep in mind that it's likely we have something like an odd/even-numbered vig or a vig who has only one shot. Maybe only encourage the vig to shoot someone you actually think is scum???

Testing her bulletproof when I thought it is was infinite (which it always has been in the past on TR, so thinking that isn't exactly crazy) didn't seem like it had any downside. If she was lying, probably Mafia. If she wasn't, absolutely no harm done. The fact that it's one shot changes this. I said before that I don't think a vig should shoot her due to the fact that it's one shot and wasting it doesn't seem smart.

 

[Equitial]

I don't know who we should go after next. I hadn't decided who I wanted to vote for the Day when Tanuki went and dropped his claim. Persephone would be someone I'd strongly consider, at least, but I'm not sure. Maybe Waffle- she feels like she's trying to lurk/blend in and I've seen some new townies look like that (but also new scum), so only maybe. Can't think of anyone else in particular right now. I'll probably get a full readslist put together by the end of the day or during the night phase and drop it first thing D3, assuming I'm not dead. I'll try and do it today.

Come on, you were so on the ball D1 and in the last game. Surely you can put together a little something in case you're lynched today. Especially since you definitely have people that you'd defend.