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Fall 2020 Mafia - Game Thread

DawningWinds

Ace Trainer
Partners
  1. hawlucha
Ultimately the idea that DW just happened to flag me, not only as mafia, but as specifically the killer, after just day 0 is ridiculous. Espy is the one who prevented the murder attempt.
HOW? SHE SPECIFICALLY CLAIMED NOT YO HAVE DONE ANYTHING! And as I said, IT WAS ONLY ONE FACTOR IN MY VOTE ON YOU. All things considered, I realize there's still a pretty low chance that it was you- bulletproof or an actually doctor just as easily could've done it.
 

DawningWinds

Ace Trainer
Partners
  1. hawlucha
HOW? SHE SPECIFICALLY CLAIMED NOT YO HAVE DONE ANYTHING! And as I said, IT WAS ONLY ONE FACTOR IN MY VOTE ON YOU. All things considered, I realize there's still a pretty low chance that it was you- bulletproof or an actual doctor just as easily could've done it.
Edit By Way Of Post (EBWOP)
 

DawningWinds

Ace Trainer
Partners
  1. hawlucha
HOW? SHE SPECIFICALLY CLAIMED NOT TO HAVE DONE ANYTHING! And as I said, IT WAS ONLY ONE FACTOR IN MY VOTE ON YOU. All things considered, I realize there's still a pretty low chance that it was you- bulletproof or an actual doctor just as easily could've done it.
EBWOTP because I somehow missed a thing in my first one.
 

windskull

Bidoof Fan
Staff
Partners
  1. sneasel-nip
  2. bidoof
  3. absol
  4. kirlia
  5. windskull-bidoof
  6. little-guy-windskull
  7. purugly
  8. mawile
  9. manectric
I've gone back to look over what's happened tonight. Particularly, I looked at both DW's and Nuki's posts in isolation. As of right now, I still think Tanuki is the safer lynch, though I'm less certain than before, especially with Phantump's claim.

Based on currently available information, I am almost completely certain that he's telling the truth about his role. Reason: Dawning did not counterclaim that she blocked me, which, if she had, would have been more useful to claim as it would have raised more suspicions. Ergo, we can probably assume Tanuki is being honest about his role. This does not, however, clear him.

By backing up myself and equita, it would have given him a better alibi to fly under the radar for longer.

Now to look at DawningWinds claim. Like I said before, it would have been better for her to claim she blocked me, if she's scum trying to get Tanuki lynched. Reasoning: If she's lying, then there was the chance of being caught by a tracker or watcher. And if Tanuki flips innocent, then it'll be obvious that she's lied. If she's telling the truth, then I believe Tanuki must be telling the truth as well, because it wouldn't explain how I was blocked N0.

It is possible that she's lying and actually targeted me though. It's also possible that she's lying about her role entirely. For all we know, she could be the killer. In which case, she claims that she roleblocked Phantump when, in actuality, she tried to kill phantump and failed because of the bulletproof. This is possible, but seems unlikely. If she really tried to kill phantump, then why bother getting phantump to check and see if She knows when she's been targeted?

... but. it's important to note this: if DW is the killer, she wouldn't have had an action N0. Only N1, which would correspond with her claim of who she targeted. Additionally, this is something that wouldn't be able to be verified by a tracker or watcher. Sort of. A tracker or watcher could have seen her interact with Phantump, but they wouldn't see what she did. If she killed phantump then yeah, it'd be a bit harder to claim. But since phantump didn't die, we can't prove that she actually blocked phantump.

Another, related possibility: Phantump is lying about being bulletproof: Easy role to lie about, but can be somewhat verified by equita's role, provided he doesn't die tonight. If he wants to do that, at least. It doesn't seem like the best use of his role though. Especially since it seems very unlikely.

If everyone thus far is telling the truth, there are a couple of possible scenarios.

1. Waffle, Persephone, or Fusion is the killer. They also targeted phantump.
2. Similar to 1, but one of the remainders is a doctor and happened to target the same player as the killer.
3. Similar to 1, but one of the remainders is a bus driver and happened to swap the target and phantump.

As of right now, I'm about to go to bed. I'll leave my vote on Tanuki for now but may change after I sleep on it.
 

DawningWinds

Ace Trainer
Partners
  1. hawlucha
If there's a vig (especially with unlimited shots), I think they should shoot Phantump. While bulletproof is a role that can go either way, if she's lying about it she's probably scum. And if she's not, we know her role for sure. That's not to say I think she's lying, but unless whichever of Tanuki or I is lynched today flips Innocent, there's probably not a better target and having her role absolutely confirmed seems like a good idea.

Also, I don't think it's likely there are any more protection roles if Phantump and Espy are both town. If they are, town has two, plus a roleblocker who can stop kills (regardless of my/Tanuki's alignment). Which means the kill can be stopped ~1/2 the townies (3/8 or 3/7). That's quite a bit, so it's probably safe to say no regular doc in this game unless Phantump or Espy is scum.
 

DawningWinds

Ace Trainer
Partners
  1. hawlucha
Also, I don't think it's likely there are any more protection roles if Phantump and Espy are both town. If they are, town has two, plus a roleblocker who can stop kills (regardless of my/Tanuki's alignment). Which means the kill can be stopped ~1/2 the townies (3/8 or 3/7). That's quite a bit, so it's probably safe to say no regular doc in this game unless Phantump or Espy is scum.
Meaning, assuming they're both honest town, Phantump was most likely the nightkill target or became so by bus driver.
 

Tanuki

Friend of All Chu
Location
Rhyme City
Pronouns
He/him/his
If there's a vig (especially with unlimited shots), I think they should shoot Phantump. While bulletproof is a role that can go either way, if she's lying about it she's probably scum. And if she's not, we know her role for sure. That's not to say I think she's lying, but unless whichever of Tanuki or I is lynched today flips Innocent, there's probably not a better target and having her role absolutely confirmed seems like a good idea.
The current theory is she was already hit by mafia, and now you want a vigilante to go after her? I doubt there’s a bulletproof role that lasts more than once. This is just transparently asking someone to kill a townie that you’ve gone out of your way to paint as the killer.
 

Starlight Aurate

Ad Jesum per Mariam | pfp by kintsugi
Location
Route 123
Partners
  1. mightyena
  2. psyduck

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
I've just woken up and haven't deeply read through everything yet, but I find Phantump's claim of Bulletproof interesting because I originally pegged that as Persephone's claim:

Not exactly willing to claim rn since it would make my role much less effective.

What role is made less effective if known? The only one I can think of is bulletproof.

@Shiny Phantump, what is your ability called? (No screenshots or direct quotes though -- against the rules.) @Persephone, have a counterclaim?
 

Shiny Phantump

Through Dream, I Travel
Location
Hallownest
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. sylveon
  2. absol-mega
  3. silvally-psychic
  4. ninetales-phantump
  5. cosmog
  6. gallade-phantump
  7. ceruledge-phantump
I don’t know who killed me, but I know if my one shot gets used. (I didn’t want to claim one shot last night, because I didn’t want to make myself easy pickings if my one shot was used without me knowing.)

I... didn’t get any notification that my shot was used last night.

I only see 3 ways for this to be possible. The rest of you will see 4, where I’m mafia killer, but obv I don’t.

1: Tanuki roleblocked the killer (Since this makes Tanuki town, it makes DW scum)

2: Scum chose not to kill hoping to frame someone with a roleblock (Could’ve been planned with either player being scum, but DW is the one who actually tried it.)

3: Scum chose not to kill because they were hoping for a mislynch on Fusion or Persephone. Since DW wouldn’t blow up that chance with... all this, this option makes Tanuki scum and DW town.)

I’m inclined to continue hedge my bets on DW being scum, although I’m less certain of it than before.

(I mean, technically there’s a 4/5th possibility in Espy lying about guarding someone, but the odds of that are negligible, so I’m willing to discard it as a possibility and I don’t think anyone will fight me on that.)
 
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