[Town victory] Vanilla Mafia!

[Equitial]

[[
Bruh, did we really never ask Inke who they targeted n0? I'm annoyed at myself.

And can people explain to me why they're so certain about Phan. I've never been able to see why people read them that way.
]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Chibi has never been scum before and openly dreads it. They play to scumhunt. Free is an excellent stealth scum... because she just imagines being town and plays like that.]]

[[Interesting you say this given Chibi expressed some doubts about Jean/Free, and I have a lot of my own. Worth future consideration.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Yellow could be stealth scum. If so, it's the best newcomer scum performance I've seen since Altair's debut.]]

[[I thought long and hard about this honestly and if its true would be a stunning performance]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[[On my way home, very quick thoughts before I get to backreading:

Technically we do not actually know that Steven was rolecop. We’re assuming this based on him stating that he had found out Hana/Abra’s role. I forget precisely how he phrased it, want to look at that again in a bit, but it was very much a softclaim. I’m not comfortable calling them mechanically confirmed, especially with an actual hardclaimed town rolecop coming out of the woodwork. I’m just really weirded out by two town rolecops? What are they even for? (The other thing that would explain this is scum Chibi? Need to go through and form an opinion on how plausible that is as well, but I certainly have been reading Chibi as town.)

SparklingEspeon’s information does indeed look extremely suspect.

I stand by my post from D2 about how I find Equi’s dismissive approach to the notion of a mafia doctor here really alarming and untowny. First order of business is probably to go back through his posts for more thoughts.]]

 

[Equitial]

[[
Pano's roleclaim, fyi:

He paused, adjusted the lapels of his jacket, and took a steadying breath. One hand lingered over the outside of his jacket pocket where the letter sat. "I believe I know a few things about the roles some of us may have. As for alignment, though, I can't quite say. To protect as many people as possible, I cannot say exactly how I've come to conclude these things. For all I know, I could be mistaken about a grave number of them. The only thing I do know is that by not divulging anything tonight, our enemy cannot glean anything from me either."

[...]

"Please know for now that while I have my suspicions, I have no plans to act on anything without further evidence. Before the day is over, though, I intend on casting a vote. For now, I'll simply say this..."

Steven turned to regard the small, devil-like creature that had calmed considerably since their initial meeting. "Kent, I believe your innocence."

]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Alright worst case scenario:
-We mislynch Equi tonight as town doctor/something.
-Mafia kills a lover in the night.
3 deaths, 4 from previous days, 7 town dead altogether.
1 Mafia is already dead, out of anywhere from 4-6 (maybe).

We probably have, at worst, 13 town total.
-4 Dead town which means at worst
-9 living town/5 Mafia
if 3 town die, (mislynch + lover death)

That means 6/5 ratio which is rough, honestly.

Things look better if there's 4 mafia.

Just overview.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[jeez if there's 6 mafia and we have 4 town lovers thats... ugh really icky]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[[
Hey, Dragonfree. Since Mafia did target Inke, who left in this game also plays Mafia on TCoD?
]]

[[The only people in the game who play on TCoD to my knowledge are me, kyeugh and Bluwii. As we know, Bluwii was mafia, so it seems plausible he could have influenced the mafia's plans before being eliminated - although I also don't think going for people unlikely to be healed is such a specific thing that the mafia couldn't just as well have independently come up with it. (Of course, they then went on to go for Anti, and for all we know they had some other reason to go for Inkedust. This was entirely spitballing because people were doubting whether Inke could be telling the truth on the basis that the mafia wouldn't have gone for her.)]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[Okay please call me stupid if necessary because maybe I missed this completely but What about the other night? Did you check out anyone else? Might as well share.]]

"I already said Ferry was normal and Anti was cop."

[[Alright worst case scenario:
-We mislynch Equi tonight as town doctor/something.
-Mafia kills a lover in the night.
3 deaths, 4 from previous days, 7 town dead altogether.
1 Mafia is already dead, out of anywhere from 4-6 (maybe).

We probably have, at worst, 13 town total.
-4 Dead town which means at worst
-9 living town/5 Mafia
if 3 town die, (mislynch + lover death)

That means 6/5 ratio which is rough, honestly.

Things look better if there's 4 mafia.

Just overview.]]

"I don't think the bad guys are going to go after the lovers until the end. They'd be better off going for the dangerous players first. And that's what they've been doing."

"And if there's SIX bad guys"--she said this with a tone of disgust--"then one of the lovers has to be bad, otherwise the good guys would be too weak. I would think it would be Clovis and Pixie. The only way that would make sense is if one of the normal bad guys got a hint that the good lovers could talk to each other. But I'm still never going to vote for them unless we got rid of four bad guys and the game was still not over. So I'm not going to be suspicious of them unless that happens."

 

[Dragonfree]

Oh, and I realized this during the night phase but my suspicions of Chibi were 100% the result of paranoia, please ignore that. If Chibi was a scum Role Cop, it would have made zero sense for them to push at Mike, because whoops. Who will people gun for next after that?

[[Welllll... Chibi didn't push for Mike on the basis of a counterclaim. They just maintained both he and Kent were suspicious, and that his actions didn't make sense for a rolecop. This wouldn't automatically mean people'd go for Chibi if he'd flipped innocent - they didn't claim to know, in a way that'd be falsified by an innocent flip. As I went into on D1, the mafia did have a vested interest in eliminating Mike over Kent there, provided people were down with suspecting Mike, so there would have been a reason for them to push at him.

Chibi stepped up as the second person to express suspicion of Mike (I think, based on my notes), after Hana. I considered this probably too bold a play for mafia and left Chibi off my suspects list there. But it's not impossible, I don't think? If it had been a mafia play they certainly would in fact have gotten away with it - after all, many other people went on to express suspicion of Mike and even vote for him before he revealed the bulletproof gambit. On the other hand, a lot of that was because of the whole "serial killer appears vanilla to rolecop" debacle, which Chibi clearly didn't anticipate unless they were galaxy braining at a truly implausible level. All in all, still don't think it seems very likely, especially since Chibi also started the Pory train, but.

On a similar basis I kind of want to analyze the suspicion on Anti yesterday - the mafia would have had an interest in pushing that train, too.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

"I already said Ferry was normal and Anti was cop."

[[frick mbad😅

Alrighty then so my suspicion for today remains firmly on Equi.

"I don't think the bad guys are going to go after the lovers until the end. They'd be better off going for the dangerous players first. And that's what they've been doing."

"And if there's SIX bad guys"--she said this with a tone of disgust--"then one of the lovers has to be bad, otherwise the good guys would be too weak. I would think it would be Clovis and Pixie. The only way that would make sense is if one of the normal bad guys got a hint that the good lovers could talk to each other. But I'm still never going to vote for them unless we got rid of four bad guys and the game was still not over. So I'm not going to be suspicious of them unless that happens."

Good point.

I don't know if I'll even live tonight but if mafia keeps targeting power roles to save lovers for last, maybe I will.
That said I have some other thoughts to contemplate about secret scum that I'll try to post later.

And I was thinking that, but it'd be awfully unfair to tip off mafia to mason town, wouldn't it. But at this point nothing surprises me lol.

I do agree I have no interest in sussing them unless it comes to the end of the game though!]]

 

[Dragonfree]

Right now, it looks as though my best chance for people to stop sussing me is to dissuade the idea that I'm a scum Doctor. For that, I have a meta argument in that Namo, our host, was on the scumteam last time around, a scumteam whose quirk *was* an overdosing Doctor. I would argue that he wouldn't use the same trick twice. If people start disbelieving in a scum Doctor, my next step is to try to explain my reasoning for my moves yesterday, but idk I accept that mistakes have been made on my part.

The Nintendo hung in midair. Not a micrometer of movement, from neither console nor stylus. Slowly, the screens began to dim, but before they could go out entirely:

BARTHOLOMEW:
--oh!!! now i see who ur talking about
--good news--prob no Mafia Doctor here!
--and i feel better if i do get lynched
--bc I'm not the only one standing between Townie and certain death!!!
--and also
--that means according to our count before, the number of Mafia power roles is about, uh...
--zero
--that sounds weird
--so vote Captian Sparkley :DDDD
--and please look at Fancyson or Screm Fox before you die plz thnx

[[Yeah, I still just find these posts really strange. Equi explicitly (supposedly) had no idea who the other doctor was originally, but was still willing to just offhandedly dismiss the idea there could possibly be a scum doctor - and then, on realizing who it was, just immediately went "yeah cool town, this is good, we're golden." Scum would know not to try to push the other doctor being scum, because they'd inevitably flip town; a town doctor has no actual reason to be so ready to just blindly assume this and move on.

This is the biggest point against Equitial so far in my read, I think - he's mostly been doing a good job seeming to be cooperative and helpful today, but he also did that last game as scum after I accused him as I recall it, so I remain wary.

I'm getting pretty sleepy and slightly headachey, so I think I'm taking a bit of a nap, but will continue later tonight.]]

 

[Equitial]

Scum would know not to try to push the other doctor being scum, because they'd inevitably flip town; a town doctor has no actual reason to be so ready to just blindly assume this and move on.

But as things seem to be progressing I'm going to be lynched today, so if I were scum it would be now or never. Anyway, Dragonfree's biggest sus on me is that I don't think Namo would put in a scum Doctor again. Which, what can I say besides: "Actually I do think that"

I've been reading through Dragonfree's and Phantump's posts again, and my thoughts still remain 1) Dragonfree good and logic and helpful and 2) I don't know why Phan has such strong townreads. Something that has occurred to me about Phan though is that, while she has claimed vanilla, she hasn't shared her hint yet. With a hypothetical scum!Phan, the more time that goes on the more difficult it will be to think of a hint that makes sense to conceal for so long. If it comes down to it, scum!Phan may be caught later on with that hint. If Phan considers her hint not that important, she might as well share it now so we can analyze it while I'm still alive.

Other random thoughts include that instead of Chibi inspecting Sind/Perse to check Espeon's claim, just check Espeon herself. Duh. That's if Chibi can survive the night, which I'd hope so considering I think the other Doctor is Town. Mafia probably used their Juggernaut on Windskull if they had a Juggernaut at all, so Town Doctor should be good. If however Chibi does die, I suggest you strongly consider the possibility the other Healer is scum. The rest of Town should be able to find them, since it didn't take me that long after Chibi spurred me to it. (ofc Mafia can also probably find them out now too so grumble grumble whatever)

Another thing: if Espeon is scum, that makes me think her scumbuddies are inactive/inexperienced. If you haven't been scum before, at least in my teams, many of our posts and claims were workshopped before sending them out. Scum!Espeon presumably would have given her hint before posting it in the thread. We sussed her claim pretty quick, so that means experienced partners would have more likely said, "Hey wait, are we sure this really works out?"

Before EoD, I want to look through uA posts, look through Yellow's posts (which I haven't done this game yet), and post my general scumreads. Though I may be taking a pause this evening; I've been Mafia Brain for a while.
]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[This is an unrelated question bot does anyone know if mafia can talk during the day?]]

 

[Equitial]

[[
When I was Mafia, yes.
]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Wow there’s a bit to unpack here, let me try to dive in a bit:

[[Yellow could be stealth scum. If so, it's the best newcomer scum performance I've seen since Altair's debut.]]

I’m genuinely, truly flattered that y’all are even entertaining this possibility, but I’ll say right now that, uh, I am not that good, lol. I will admit that I was clearly wrong about Anti and Reme, and let me tell you, that was a humbling experience because I was so sure of all my reads before today. 😅 That said, if anyone does have questions about my reads or votes, throw them at me, I’ll be happy to explain my logic.

"And if there's SIX bad guys"--she said this with a tone of disgust--"then one of the lovers has to be bad, otherwise the good guys would be too weak. I would think it would be Clovis and Pixie. The only way that would make sense is if one of the normal bad guys got a hint that the good lovers could talk to each other. But I'm still never going to vote for them unless we got rid of four bad guys and the game was still not over. So I'm not going to be suspicious of them unless that happens."

Yes, good logic! I agree with this, though I certainly hope we don’t actually have 6 mafia. I was pretty sure we might have 6 at first because of the large number of players, but seeing how all the roles shook out…well, yeah. Let’s pray there aren’t actually 5 more of them. 🙃

Another thing: if Espeon is scum, that makes me think her scumbuddies are inactive/inexperienced. If you haven't been scum before, at least in my teams, many of our posts and claims were workshopped before sending them out. Scum!Espeon presumably would have given her hint before posting it in the thread. We sussed her claim pretty quick, so that means experienced partners would have more likely said, "Hey wait, are we sure this really works out?"

This is probably the only thing that’s giving me pause with Espy. Mafia isn’t infallible, of course, but to claim such a hint that’s so easily disproved is kind of a big error. I dunno, though, it is a newbie game after all!

Mafia probably used their Juggernaut on Windskull if they had a Juggernaut at all, so Town Doctor should be good. If however Chibi does die, I suggest you strongly consider the possibility the other Healer is scum.

I think it’s pretty dangerous to assume the mafia has already used their Juggernaut. We do have four lovers to protect, and if the doc had any suspicions about Anti being scum, they could have opted to protect someone else.

Lastly, I’m still side-eying Jean, but I do think we have more suspicious members to pressure before we need to resort to questioning our town reads. That said, if Bart flips scum, then Jean is fairly cleared to me since she’s been putting a lot of pressure on Bart and questioning their logic. If Bart flips innocent, well…then I’ll be a lot more suspicious of her.

As for Hazel, I’ll have to read through her posts again. I was initially sus of her for immediately jumping on Mike’s accusation of Kent and voting Kent, but then she was the one who caught Mike in his lie and effectively saved Kent, or at least helped in doing so. Though, that did turn the suspicion to Mike, who is almost certainly town, so I guess it could still have been a mafia play. Not sure, but she’s been reading very town for me this whole time. I’ll have to review her posts and come back with more thoughts.]]

 

[Homestar!]

I'd start with our bulletproof and a Lover pair.

[[In my defense, I tried to quit because I knew town would waste time/days on this. Mafia would never want to be down a person; meanwhile, there is a whole role (quitter) around strategic self-elimination.]]

[[Am I the only one who finds this and the statement of once again susing the lovers very very weird? We crossed that bridge already.]]

[[Not really. As the other target he sus'd, both seem like smart leads. For the record, still think you and kent are authentic. Skeptical about Clovis/Pixie, but not enough to not vote Bart.]]

You did nab us Bluwii D1 and were firmly on the nonAnti train, which I agreed with.

Mike stirred from where he sat in the surf, the tide having come, gone, and leaving him drenched and salt-lined.

"Excuse me? Are we gonna ignore the biggest galaxy-brainer here who totally called that from a country mile away?"

[[Just wanted to RP lmao]]

[[Voting priority according to Cat Voice]]

[[Why is Reme on there? Didn't Wind clear Fusion?

Ah there it is, I mean we can chalk that up as misplay. Everybody gets one lmao]]

Technically we do not actually know that Steven was rolecop. We’re assuming this based on him stating that he had found out Hana/Abra’s role.

[[He could have been vanilla, or even an actually good OSBP player baiting the Big Jug Hug:tm:. Flyg0n's performance was pretty transparent, and it wouldn't be 'Mikeposting' to say to onesself "Instead of confirming/'confirming' the innocence of one half, I'll confirm the innocence of the other and save their ass."]]

Something that has occurred to me about Phan though is that, while she has claimed vanilla, she hasn't shared her hint yet.

[[She did, within her rules post. Her hint was that Vanillas all got Hints.]]

Other random thoughts include that instead of Chibi inspecting Sind/Perse to check Espeon's claim, just check Espeon herself. Duh.

[[That feels like a deflection off of the 'fake lovers,' IMO.]]

As for Hazel, I’ll have to read through her posts again.

[[Her play thus far reads as lover whose partner got the finger pointed at them. It was a big, fat, stupid finger, but yeah, if Flyg0n flips Mafia I'll eat my hat.

Okay, caught up. Guess I should try to throw together some general take-aways?

First, IMO, Equi has done nothing but cry innocent and raise suspicion throughout this day. While I admit that I am brand-spankin'-new, I hate the idea of choosing heal targets at random (or at least, as randomly as they claim). I dislike the further sus on me, and combined with the idea to check Espy instead of the potential fake lovers looks like two deflections away from the fake lovers (iirc).

I'm DEFINITELY sticking with an Equi vote this round. Next round, I really wanna figure out the "Oops! All Lovers!" game we seem to be playing.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

Her play thus far reads as lover whose partner got the finger pointed at them. It was a big, fat, stupid finger, but yeah, if Flyg0n flips Mafia I'll eat my hat

[[I think you misread my post, lol. I was talking about Hazel/Phan, not Hana/Flygon!

[[She did, within her rules post. Her hint was that Vanillas all got Hints.]]

Wait what?? Did she claim this as her hint? I gotta go back and find this because, uh, if that’s the case, I might have Thoughts.]]

 

[Homestar!]

[[I think you misread my post, lol. I was talking about Hazel/Phan, not Hana/Flygon!

[[Lmaoooooo yep, I thought it was Hazel/Flyg0n this whole time.]]

 

[Homestar!]

Wait what?? Did she claim this as her hint? I gotta go back and find this because, uh, if that’s the case, I might have Thoughts.]]

[[I wanna say she claimed that it was her hint sometime during D2, when people were really fine-toothed-combing her post?]]