[Town victory] Vanilla Mafia!

[HelloYellow17]

[[I wanna say she claimed that it was her hint sometime during D2, when people were really fine-toothed-combing her post?]]

[[I’m trying to find it but if you know where it is, could you quote the post for me? Brain is friend and I’ve spent so long scanning the thread 😅]]

 

[Homestar!]

[[I’m trying to find it but if you know where it is, could you quote the post for me? Brain is friend and I’ve spent so long scanning the thread 😅]]

[[WHERE IS THE FRIGGIN' FILTER BY PERSON BUTTON AJHSFKJHDKJHSD]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Oh, a few more thoughts on Jean and Hazel:

Hazel defended Anti, which is definitely a townie move, though of course that doesn’t automatically clear all suspicion. All her other posts have been…pretty solidly town friendly though. She did kind of lead the charge against Pixie I think, but then unvoted even before the lover claim.

Jean very aggressively defended Clovis right from the start! Which…I suppose if Clovis and Pixie are mafia, would end up looking really really sus. Ugh we need someone to read/check them maybe.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[WHERE IS THE FRIGGIN' FILTER BY PERSON BUTTON AJHSFKJHDKJHSD]]

[[tbh I’ve never found it, I just use the search bar and search the specific user 😅]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[Okay I'm going to make some real quick oops not so short ooc notes on the roles in this setup for the uninitiated:

Goon (Considered vanilla; no particular role; at night, choose a person to kill if nobody else in the mafia chooses to do the same)
Villager (Considered vanilla; No particular powers or abilities; use your power of deduction to sniff out the mafia!)
-At 20 people expect a number of these. Also, lovers should probably pretend to be them so, add 2 or maybe 4 more fake ones who are on our side and we shouldn't kill them.
-Which goon does the kill is unlikely to matter in this setup
-In this game all vanillas, regardless of alignment, were given a hint in some capacity. If your hint sounds like something a mafia player might contradict in a lie, keep it secret so we can use it to oust them. If it's only helpful to us than let us know.

Cop (At night, check someone if they're Mafia or not)
-The most powerful role here, I will literally eat a hat if there are two. Mafia Enemy Number One and likely Juggernaut target.

Doctor (At night, pick someone to protect from being killed)
-Again, probably not 2 because then they can both protect each other and if the Juggernaut is used they become immortal. Not a juggernaut target despite their power because they can't protect themselves. If you are a doctor please act from the shadows without letting the Mafia know who you are.

Lovers (A pair; if one dies, so does the other)
-Will always appear in multiples of 2 for logical reasons, and 4 seems like a lot. Would guess 2. Anti-utility since they die together and have no other ability, if you have this please pretend to be a villager because otherwise the scum will come after you for what is basically a free bonus kill.

Bulletproof (Once, when you are targeted for a kill, you don't die)
-Mostly a Townie role, but could also be one on the scum team for Serial Killer insurance. Of minor notability, but you can pretend to be a power role like doctor to waste Mafia time. No reason for there to only be one, so don't be surprised by two.

Juggernaut (Only once the whole game; at night if you kill, you can activate this power. The kill pierces doctor and bulletproof powers)
-Very likely to have one to prevent "follow the cop" where the doctor protects the cop every night while keeping their identity secret it's super duper powerful without something like this to nope the cop. If you are the cop STFU about it until it's really important, this guy will 100% kill you if at all possible. If the Mafia have two of these I will also eat a hat because they are too good at killing power roles to be here in plural.

Serial Killer (Performs a kill each night; wins if they're the very last one standing)
-With two night kills tonight and no other killing roles (other than the Mafia's one shared factional kill) it can be said with 100% certainty that there IS one of these buggers about. Chaos role that will probably struggle to win but is scary. They're scary to the Mafia, too, because in this setup they're the only way Mafia can get nightkilled. Tbh they might be more scary to Mafia than us because, with smaller numbers, if one of them gets randomly stabbed that's really bad for them. That doesn't make them an ally, though, because they also hate our best power roles as much as the mafia and will also kill them on sight.
-There is a Serial Killer strategy where you claim, seeking the town's protection from Mafia in exchange for the use of their power as basically-a-vigilante. Hopefully our serial killer does this.

Role Cop (At night, select a player to see what role they have, if any.)
-Assuming correct information we have two of these in this setup. Returns "Vanilla" for powerless characters if they are goons or villagers, so less reliable than a Cop in town hands but very frighting in Mafia hands because they can oust the Cop or whatnot in scumchat and we would never even know to protect them. It is a likely assumption that one is Town and the other is Mafia. With two town Rolecops the only notable roles to find would be Juggernaut or Serial Killer so I think that's unlikely. If you are a Town Rolecop and you find another Rolecop please please please report them because they are Mafia and also way more powerful than you are because of that.]

[We can ask Namo and see if we're allowed to know in this case bc all roles are listed in the setup, but I wouldn't count on it]


Read your role dm again. Do you not have a line... I don't think we're allowed to quote verbatum but something along the lines of "all vanilla players have this" should be there.

Here y'all

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Very very very very tired. Some thoughts.]]

[[ If I’d been mafia I would’ve killed Chibi Day 1 for the lulz. At work right now, cannot make more substantive post. ]]

[[Can confirm that Pers' main goal in Mafia is to get Chibi killed, bc she's really dedicated to being a gremlin I guess?]]

[[Interesting you say this given Chibi expressed some doubts about Jean/Free, and I have a lot of my own. Worth future consideration.]]

[[Chibi was definitely just fessing up to finding Free hard to read. They're an excellent scumhunter, but Free is particularly evasive as scum.]]

[[Technically we do not actually know that Steven was rolecop.

[[Shit, you're right. He was very confident, so perhaps he had a vanilla hint that was especially potent and reasoned some stuff out? This would make Espy's hint valid, I suppose...?]]

scum Chibi?

[[Hardest townread right now, to be honest. Plus I'm still convinced of Mafia Doctor and there's no way Chibi is faking being this surprised and horrified at heal clash, which they'd know if they were scum. It's a couple leaps, I know, but I have the worst and most ominous feeling about Equi Mafia Doc: the Sequel and how easy it is to cry 'statistically implausible' about this awful possibility.]]

I find Equi’s dismissive approach to the notion of a mafia doctor here really alarming and untowny.]]

[[I don't care for it either.]]

"I don't think the bad guys are going to go after the lovers until the end. They'd be better off going for the dangerous players first. And that's what they've been doing."

"And if there's SIX bad guys"--she said this with a tone of disgust--"then one of the lovers has to be bad, otherwise the good guys would be too weak. I would think it would be Clovis and Pixie. The only way that would make sense is if one of the normal bad guys got a hint that the good lovers could talk to each other. But I'm still never going to vote for them unless we got rid of four bad guys and the game was still not over. So I'm not going to be suspicious of them unless that happens."

[[Listen to this, guys. Scum hunt powers, not bodies. Otherwise they just get found out faster. I did think earlier that a Goon getting a hint about mason-lovers was a valid possibility, which would give the scumteam a really good way to plausibly fake Four Lovers. But I don't think it's the most plausible of the possibilities.]

 

[Homestar!]

Here y'all

[[Ohhhhh, re-reading this, Equi was right about that: technically she hasn't given out her hint? Because her PM told her that all vanillas get a hint?

I'm stupid so I'm gonna shut up.]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[Yeah, I still just find these posts really strange. Equi explicitly (supposedly) had no idea who the other doctor was originally, but was still willing to just offhandedly dismiss the idea there could possibly be a scum doctor - and then, on realizing who it was, just immediately went "yeah cool town, this is good, we're golden." Scum would know not to try to push the other doctor being scum, because they'd inevitably flip town; a town doctor has no actual reason to be so ready to just blindly assume this and move on.

Ebony perked up. "I was really hoping you'd say that! Aaa, I feel really, really good about you now!"

[[Up until now I still had a bit of the usual paranoia over my inability to read Dragonfree. So without many other options, I tried to think of a way to engineer a better read:

• I didn't really know who the doctor was, but I had some guesses.
• I bluffed that I did know, hoping Equi would agree that he'd also deduced it.
• I of course had no way of knowing if he actually had, but that wasn't really important.
• What WAS important was seeing how other players would respond to this claim of his.

Dragonfree's response makes me very confident that she's town (combined with a few other things today.)

(Also elyvorg, if you're reading this, thanks for the strat, genuinely love it.)]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[It's a couple leaps, I know, but I have the worst and most ominous feeling about Equi Mafia Doc: the Sequel and how easy it is to cry 'statistically implausible' about this awful possibility.]]

[[Inside of you, there are two wolves. The first one knows how probability works. The second one says that THERE IS NO WAY EQUI GOT SCUM DOCTOR TWICE WTF--]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Ohhhhh, re-reading this, Equi was right about that: technically she hasn't given out her hint? Because her PM told her that all vanillas get a hint?

I'm stupid so I'm gonna shut up.]]

[[haha yeah I was gonna say, that would be odd because every vanilla player was informed that the other vanillites (yes I’m gonna call us that now) would also be getting hints!]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Inside of you, there are two wolves. The first one knows how probability works. The second one says that THERE IS NO WAY EQUI GOT SCUM DOCTOR TWICE WTF--]]

[[The first time I ever played Amogus on TR, Nebby got impostor three times in a row in single-impostor games in maxed out lobbies. Probability doesn't give a shit.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

a way to engineer a better read:

[[Tired cat tying to understand the strat. The idea here is that a town doc with heal clash would be ready to hunt other docs, but the mafia doc would be happy to dismiss the idea of mafia docs? Because of course they don't wanna get sacrificed, and they know that flipping the other doc town looks bad on them. Right?]]

[[Also, everyone who was incredulous about healer clash is either innocent or moderately galaxy brained scum, ha. There is no way the docs didn't get the memo about clash, so if there's a scumdoc, scum knew. I reckon scum might have pretended not to believe in healer clash? It's mild galaxy braining, but not that much.]]

 

[Equitial]

[[Up until now I still had a bit of the usual paranoia over my inability to read Dragonfree. So without many other options, I tried to think of a way to engineer a better read:

• I didn't really know who the doctor was, but I had some guesses.
• I bluffed that I did know, hoping Equi would agree that he'd also deduced it.
• I of course had no way of knowing if he actually had, but that wasn't really important.
• What WAS important was seeing how other players would respond to this claim of his.

Dragonfree's response makes me very confident that she's town (combined with a few other things today.)

[[
ah I get it fucking neat

please don't lynch Dragonfree when I'm gone :D

I am still like 80-85% sure the person I guess is Doctor, which tbh is good for Town. But ofc I'd feel happier if Chibi agreed with me. For now the main thing is if Chibi die tonight 1) scum Doctor, sus them out or 2) it was Bench I guess,
]]

 

[Equitial]

[[
also I was misinterpreting Dragonfree's argument against me
]]

 

[Flyg0n]

View attachment 1469 Ebony perked up. "I was really hoping you'd say that! Aaa, I feel really, really good about you now!"

[[Up until now I still had a bit of the usual paranoia over my inability to read Dragonfree. So without many other options, I tried to think of a way to engineer a better read:

• I didn't really know who the doctor was, but I had some guesses.
• I bluffed that I did know, hoping Equi would agree that he'd also deduced it.
• I of course had no way of knowing if he actually had, but that wasn't really important.
• What WAS important was seeing how other players would respond to this claim of his.

Dragonfree's response makes me very confident that she's town (combined with a few other things today.)

(Also elyvorg, if you're reading this, thanks for the strat, genuinely love it.)]]

[[I am too stupid o follow logic but you're really really sure Free isn't scum?]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[I am too stupid o follow logic but you're really really sure Free isn't scum?]]

[[I’d like elaboration on this too, my poor brain isn’t connecting all the dots]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[I’d like elaboration on this too, my poor brain isn’t connecting all the dots]]

[[Free's smart enough to sus Bart for playing like a mafia doc (dismissing the possibility a mafia doc exists) and if she were scum she probably wouldn't be so willing to do this, is my interpretation.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I had a lot of strong suspicions about Free but... Can't compile them rn.
I guess today my thought was that frankly, the votes are already against Equi so it would make sense for scum to jump on the train right? No?
That would be the best way to garner town trust if equis fate is sealed]]

 

[Equitial]

[[
Guys I am actually really excited because (knock on wood) I think Town is still close to winning this game. I know no one trusts me yet but wierdly enough assuming I'm going to be lynched tonight is kind of taking pressure off of me. It's like all the data is here right now and I don't have to think so far into the future.

this Day phase: you'll prob lynch me, be shocked when I'm actually innocent, but know you can take my thoughts as a confirmed Townie trying their best

this Night phase: I'd like Chibi to inspect Espeon to see if vanilla or not. I'd like possible Healer to target Chibi. Mafia would be the best if they can take out info-role Chibi.

If Chibi doesn't die:
- you know if Espeon's hint is true or not. Go from there.

If Chibi dies (or there's two deaths):
-Healer is dead or
-there is both a scum Healer and a surviving reg Doctor, duh.

Going if Chibi survives, confirming Espeon isn't vanilla and thus scum:
-probably scum suspects are Goat and Wes/Phan

Going if Chibi survives, confirms Espie is vanilla and hint is legit:
-we got liars liars on our role list (because even if we cut some down that leaves zero power roles for scum)
-Sind/Pixie or Mike

If Chibi dies:
-obvi still hone on Espy because it's a good way to find out who's next, and it's somewhat more likely that Espie's hint is wrong, because that's 3 possible Doctors if it wasn't a dead person--that increases the power roles

(btw, I changed my mind and think there are 4 scums now)
]]

 

[Equitial]

I guess today my thought was that frankly, the votes are already against Equi so it would make sense for scum to jump on the train right? No?

[[
Again, if I flip innocent it is my recommendation you don't view Dragonfree badly for it. I think she's good.
]]