[Town victory] Vanilla Mafia!

[Equitial]

[[
I submitted that post early. Probably more typos than normal, RIP.
]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[
I submitted that post early. Probably more typos than normal, RIP.
]]

[[Well then who did you heal last night?]]

 

[Flyg0n]

didn't start the bandwagon. Dragonfree was the one who originally raised sus toward Pixie, and I just expressed willingness to vote whoever as long as we voted somebody.
]]

[[Also as I said you were the first person to vote Pixie. My post says others did raise suspicion first but you were the first to cast vote. Can you give any other defenses for yourself? You have to admit these things are lining up weird. ]]

 

[Flyg0n]

My advice is if you have a power role you want to keep hidden: NO HINTS. They will know.

I'd start with our bulletproof and a Lover pair.

[[Am I the only one who finds this and the statement of once again susing the lovers very very weird? We crossed that bridge already.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Salem glared around at those assembled, past the tearful beads welling up at her eyes. Anti had been Innocent, and truthful, and half the discussion about him had been about how he was suspicious, and couldn't be trusted. So much for trying to help the group, huh. Maybe Dusk had a point about keeping things close to your chest... And on top of everything else about how awful this 'ritual' was, she was exhausted and she didn't even know why.

[[Tired Jackie has been losing sleep to Blacklight Boss 15]]

"What's the point in having doctors if they can end up just making things worse?" demanded Salem, not expecting a real answer from anyone. "We could have an innocent doctor and a bad one, or three doctors, or maybe that porygon was a doctor. If there's a town doctor left alive..."

She winced at the thought that the only healing left might be in their murderous hands.

"Well, that person would have no idea whether healing someone would save them or kill them! And it might not involve the killers at all, apparently! In fact, if things went wrong in exactly the right way in this game, we could have lost as many as four or five people on the first night if we got unlucky enough! Just imagine if there had been a Mafia murder, a heal clash, and Altair struck someone, and two of the targets were lovers! And that's if we even have four lovers. Ugh!"

She looked around at the participants closest to here. At least she was still pretty sure all of 'Team Experiments' were innocent.

"I don't know if Bart is innocent or mafia, but I don't trust him!" hissed Salem. "And Reme doesn't seem suspicious now we know Anti wasn't a murderer! So... Unless someone other than him persuades me of a better choice, I'm voting for Bart!"

[[I'm knackered and need to recuperate before making any final decisions but I thought Bart was sus before now and while it's vanishingly unlikely that Equi rolled mafia doc two games in a row in a pool of 20, that's not actually evidence that he isn't mafia doc.]]

It doesn't matter if SK is a role or alignment, Inke claimed to be Bulletproof which definitely is. That's 11 roles there which obviously not. Also, I do believe that we have two Townie Role Cops, but why would we have two if there were barely any Mafia roles to detect?

We probably have a 5-scum lineup based on what Fuse said (15 town, 5 scum, 1 SK seems right), but that's only one power role for all of them. Vanilla-ish game, yes, but I feel that's too unbalanced. So, I feel like if Espy is correct we need to re-evaluate our current claimed roles. I'd start with our bulletproof and a Lover pair. But... also right now it seems like Espy is just incorrect? Which means she's guilty, but then my issues with the proposed balance still remain. My vote between her and Goat isn't very confident, and please even if you're dead-set on voting me today try to figure out what's going on with these two.

[[Pay attention to this, though. I suspect that either one of the lover pairs is fake, or Espy's hint is foul, and both lover pairs seem pretty convincing so far.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Pay attention to this, though. I suspect that either one of the lover pairs is fake, or Espy's hint is foul, and both lover pairs seem pretty convincing so far.]]

[[While I did agree two lovers was really weird which is why I gunned so hard for Sind, I have one refute.

Steven cleared me already. Then later, after Pixie/Sind revealed they were lovers, Pixie mentions nighttalking with Sind out of the blue which... theres no feasible way they could know nightalking lovers were a part of the game unless they were lovers.

And it would be the dumbest scum move ever to mention this if they were scum since nighttalking is something mafia can already do I'm sure.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I guess this also means Espy's hint is foul? MMmgghhh thats my best guess?]]

 

[Flyg0n]

View attachment 1464 "Bart, of course! On Night 1!"

Hana frowned as she contemplated the Houndoom's explanations. "Did you sniff out anyone else suspicious?"

[[Okay please call me stupid if necessary because maybe I missed this completely but What about the other night? Did you check out anyone else? Might as well share.]]

 

[Equitial]

[[Well then who did you heal last night?]]

Jean/Dragonfree, chosen semi-randomly from a pool of options.

[[Also as I said you were the first person to vote Pixie. My post says others did raise suspicion first but you were the first to cast vote. Can you give any other defenses for yourself? You have to admit these things are lining up weird. ]]

Actually, the first person to vote was uA (if I'm interpreting the bold right):

"I think I have to vote for Porygon just because Ebony chose them first and it might actually work... But I don't think they're quite as suspicious or unhelpful as Pixie! And maybe you'll all agree with me! So I'm going to try..."

 

[Equitial]

We probably have a 5-scum lineup based on what Fuse said (15 town, 5 scum, 1 SK seems right)

Wait, I failed at arithmatic. 20 minus 5 minus 1 equals 14 actually. So 4 or 6 scum. (I'd actually lean 6 imo.)

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[I guess this also means Espy's hint is foul? MMmgghhh thats my best guess?]]

[[That's what I'm saying, for the exact reasons you laid out. A cleared cop cleared your pair (despite scummy, scummy play! naughty Kent!) and the Clovis/Pixie pair played exactly how I'd expect innocent mason-lovers of which one is busy to play. So... Either the game balance is even weirder than we thought, or Espy lied/is wrong some other way.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Also I can confirm I started the Pixie train, only to immediately about-face when Sind claimed. I was relatively suspicious of Poryfriend but didn't want to give in to confirmation bias on my own part that Bluwii is automatically sus, haha. I'm also suspicious of Astrid's inactivity, but like, I'm amazed Goat even signed up, he's so busy. Could absolutely be absent town. And a non-threat for now if he's a goon.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[That's what I'm saying, for the exact reasons you laid out. A cleared cop cleared your pair (despite scummy, scummy play! naughty Kent!) and the Clovis/Pixie pair played exactly how I'd expect innocent mason-lovers of which one is busy to play. So... Either the game balance is even weirder than we thought, or Espy lied/is wrong some other way.]]

[[Gotcha! At this point I would not be surprised if the game balance is really weird, but it seems we may also have caught a liar?]]

[[Also I can confirm I started the Pixie train, only to immediately about-face when Sind claimed. I was relatively suspicious of Poryfriend but didn't want to give in to confirmation bias on my own part that Bluwii is automatically sus, haha. I'm also suspicious of Astrid's inactivity, but like, I'm amazed Goat even signed up, he's so busy. Could absolutely be absent town. And a non-threat for now if he's a goon.]]

[[Oh I see. Must have missed that when I was reviewing. Thanks for clarifying.

I too admit the first Astrid post was weird but not enough for me to have them killed yet.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Lazy readlist...]]

Town:
Ebony, Hazel, Jean, Wes, Clovis, Pixie, Hana, Kent, Mike

Null:
Astrid, Sparkleglimmer

Scum:
Bart

Fuse:
Reme

💀
Ferry, PNS, Poryfriend, Steven, Altair, Anti

[[Oh look, what d'ya know? If we do have a four-person Mafia, then Bart and the nulls would fill it. If we have a six-person Mafia, then one of the collective townreads has to be scum. I don't remember who said the Mafia had an even number and if we can trust that info, but it does mean I'm realtively sure that if we keep sacrificing the non-townreads then unless we've been thoroughly bamboozled and out-played, we should be on track for a victory, even if the scum snipe our power roles.

 

[Flyg0n]

Jean/Dragonfree, chosen semi-randomly from a pool of options.

[[....Why Free?]]

 

[Equitial]

[[....Why Free?]]

Roll of the dice--she was only in there once.

Summary of my Heal Clash avoidance strat here:

Since we have some newbies around, we may want to offer advice in this case? I didn't actually do this last time obvi, but I said that a possible good strat was doing it semi-random. The Healer chooses players that might be hit, weights them for how likely, and then choose randomly among that weighted list. I think that's the best way we don't screw ourselves over trying to psych each other out.

For example, say we know a Lover, a Cop, and 3 guys we think are pretty good. Vanilla get one weight, roles 2. If my math is okay (not my strong point tbh) There's only a ~8% chance we overdose one of our roles. However, a 4/7 a power role the Mafia targets is protected. I think. Actually I'm questioning my calculations--uhhh blame my migraine and feel free to critique strategy.

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[That strat looks really reassuring until you consider that we might have two living town docs and a mafia doc that's guaranteed not to target the same person the mafia nightkill, and that protecting the wrong lover doesn't help at all, all of which makes the odds substantially worse.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Did I mention that heal clash is the worst mechanic?]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Lazy readlist...]]







[[Oh look, what d'ya know? If we do have a four-person Mafia, then Bart and the nulls would fill it. If we have a six-person Mafia, then one of the collective townreads has to be scum. I don't remember who said the Mafia had an even number and if we can trust that info, but it does mean I'm realtively sure that if we keep sacrificing the non-townreads then unless we've been thoroughly bamboozled and out-played, we should be on track for a victory, even if the scum snipe our power roles.

Out of everyone, unless you are the worlds most brilliant scum ever lol, I trust your reads mostly. You did nab us Bluwii D1 and were firmly on the nonAnti train, which I agreed with.

In which case I'm inclined to trust your reads.

So i guess I just want to be sure. Are you sure its worth the gamble that we might, on the most fractionally small of odds, kill one of our own doctors?

I am very sus of Bart/Equi and already pretty ready to vote them unless something huge comes to light anyways but...]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Out of everyone, unless you are the worlds most brilliant scum ever lol, I trust your reads mostly. You did nab us Bluwii D1 and were firmly on the nonAnti train, which I agreed with.

In which case I'm inclined to trust your reads.

So i guess I just want to be sure. Are you sure its worth the gamble that we might, on the most fractionally small of odds, kill one of our own doctors?

I am very sus of Bart/Equi and already pretty ready to vote them unless something huge comes to light anyways but...]]

[[Thanks. Now, others might not agree with my risk assessment here, but besides being generally sus of Bart and persuaded that we might have a mafia doc, I feel much more at ease losing a townie who's admitted to poor play who basically rolls Russian Roulette every night than I do losing a genuinely harmless absent vanilla townie. So, I think he's scum, but if he isn't, and we avoid a healer clash down the road, it's not so bad.]]