[Town victory] Vanilla Mafia!

[Flyg0n]

"I just noticed an important thing!!!"


"For this to be true, the bad guys can't have a strong-guy! Or any other powers besides the doctor!"


"But if THIS is true, then the bad guys need to have another power. To keep things even. Right?"

"I think that's right. These hints can't both be true, I think."

"Also... I just realized I don't know how the serial killer fits into that..."

[[SK fits into this if one of them is lying I think?]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[Wait, I'm not following how you're getting alignments from this? What's the difference between Vanilla Mafia and Vanilla Town in the context of these hints?]]

"It's cuz we already have 11 special powers we know are in the game!"

2 rolecop
2 doctor
1 cop
1 bulletproof
1 serial killer
4 lovers

"Maybe the Serial Killer doesn't count...? Well, it's still 10. So for the Sylveon to be telling the truth, that means no other powers! Which mean, no other bad guy powers."

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I think this all tracks and my brain hurts too much to think further, urgh.

For now just worried with Bart.]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

"Maybe the Serial Killer doesn't count...? Well, it's still 10. So for the Sylveon to be telling the truth, that means no other powers! Which mean, no other bad guy powers."

"But since we know the bad guys have an even number, if they have no other powers besides doctor, that means they gotta have 3 goons! But if they have three goons, then for the Ninetales to be telling the truth, we have to have an odd number of normal-guys. But... with the list of powers we already know about... it can't be an odd number! No way!!"

"So... they both can't be telling the truth, I think. But... if someone can find a way for them to both be telling the truth... they should say it!!"

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Hazel nodded. "I see what you mean. There can't be the strong-killing power in there unless people are lying about their powers... I don't think anyone is lying, so that would make the thing on the note about that power nothing more than a red herring."

She suddenly wanted to know what the doctors had done last night, perhaps they had overdosed her friend... She didn't think it was a good idea to ask, though. There was no way to be sure who was lying, and the people who told the truth would only be revealing themselves to the bad people.

But since we know the bad guys have an even number

"I see what you mean now. I did not think that was what that clue meant... I had thought it meant the total amount was even when both sides were added up. If it is meant the way you meant it... I think it still is not possible to tell with certainty if it is true. But it could be. It always could be, no matter what."

 

[Chibi Pika]

"I see what you mean now. I did not think that was what that clue meant... I had thought it meant the total amount was even when both sides were added up. If it is meant the way you meant it... I think it still is not possible to tell with certainty if it is true. But it could be. It always could be, no matter what."

"Oh, I just meant Reme's hint! Reme said there was an odd-number of bad guys. Then there was the Yamask who was on nobody's side. So there's absolutely definitely an even-number of good guys. We can use that to figure out a lot of things!"

 

[Chibi Pika]

"Ack, I got it mixed up! Odd good guys! Even bad guys! Aaaaa!" She buried her face in the sand out of embarrassment.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Secretly, Hazel was just glad she wasn't being confused for no reason.

"That's okay! We all make mistakes..."

She took a moment to recollect her thoughts. "In that case... If the Sylveon's hint is true, the Ninetales' hint also has to be, but if the Sylveon's hint is wrong, the Ninetales' hint might still be right, because, really, it always might be right. There's probably four bad people, so if two have powers and two don't, that's even, but the Sylveon's hint could still be wrong if the good people have more than half...

"No. Wait. The thing about there not being the killing power would still probably be true even if you were mixed up about something else?"

---

[[On that note, I feel like I'd be much happier trying to work things out when it's not nighttime... I'll probably be unable to help but to check once or twice more today just compulsively, but I think it's mostly reading/writing time for me now.]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

Ebony excitedly grabbed a stick in her mouth and drew lots of boxes in the sand. Then she wrote names in the boxes. Being able to read was cool!

"Sylveon said there were 10 powers! So here's one possibility! Sylveon is (sort of) telling the truth in this one? But there's no way for Ninetales to be telling the truth! Impossible!"

Spoiler

"But if Sylveon is lying, there could be other powers that we don't know about at all. Maybe 11, or 12, or 13 powers! In that case, there could be lots of ways for Ninetales to be telling the truth."

"But... I can't find anything that fits what both of them said! Also, umm... I really don't know what to do if there's 6 bad guys. That's a terrible number! The worst!"

The idea of six mafia seemed particularly disturbing to Ebony for reasons that may have had to do with the last game to happen like this...

 

[HelloYellow17]

Ebony was…quite impressive with her logic. Wes grinned a little as he watched her drag the stick across the sand. Dammit, he wasn’t one to say the word “cute”, but it was the perfect word for the excitable Houndoom.

If only Neo and Novo were here…

He shook the thought from his head and spoke, ignoring the ache in his chest. “I’m not sure what to make of this, to be honest. Either one of them could be true, but…I think the Sylveon’s hint is more likely to be true than the Ninetales’ is?” He rubbed the back of his head. “It seems a stretch to say there are more than 10 power roles here, but maybe that’s just…wishful thinking.”

He scowled as he remembered how things had gone down last time. Gods, he hoped he only had four scum to deal with here. Six was…an unsettling thought.

“Either way, I know who I’ll be voting for today—unless something drastic changes, but even then, it’ll have to be pretty damn impressive to change my mind.”

Vote: Bartholomew/Equital

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I'd like to add: Many of us voiced unease over Pixie (mostly for activity but we know Perse was busy and lover. So they were probably laying low intentionally.

BUT it was equi who started the bandwagon on them and almost got them lynched and ended up ousting them.

So yeah another sus nail in the coffin. Not to mention the fact that they've not said much, not claimed anything specific and given no informaton that can really be disproven, its rather odd. What I mean by this is their only reasonings for their defense was something abotu meta rules, which makes no sense, they started the healer clash rumor (which might or might not be true) and yeah....

Don't think we need other evidence atm.

@Chibi Pika that said as long as you claimed who else have you checked so far? Cant recall if you answered this. In case you die tonight knowing is good]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Cant recall if you answered this. In case you die tonight knowing is good

[[Correct me if I'm wrong, but Ferry and Anti returned Vanilla and Cop]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Correct me if I'm wrong, but Ferry and Anti returned Vanilla and Cop]]

[[Wouldn’t there be one more though? Or…hang on. Can role cops use their powers on N0? If that’s the case, then Chibi would have had time to check 3 different people. But I don’t know the nitty gritty details like that so maybe it was only N1 onwards.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[I guess I assumed Chibi used their powers on N0 to check Ferry, as it wouldn’t make a ton of sense to check him after he’s dead and confirmed innocent.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

Wes observed Ebony scribble out her notes. As charming as it was to watch, he realized he ought to do the same, and so he sat on the white sand and, using another nearby stick, wrote out what he could remember so far:

[SPOILER = List of role claims and vanilla hints]
Vanilla: Wes, Reme, Sparkleglimmer, Astrid
Lovers: Clovis and Pixie, Hana and Kent
Doctor: Bartholomew
OSBP: Mike
Rolecop: Ebony

Vanilla hints:
•Two role cops (Wes)
•Odd # of town players (Reme)
•Special power roles vs vanilla roles is 50/50; thus, there are 10 special roles total in the game (Sparkleglimmer)
•The total # of vanilla players (both mafia and town) is an even number (Astrid)

[/SPOILER]

When he was done, Wes raised his head. “This is what I can remember. Someone let me know if I missed anything.”

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[LOL ok, RIP that spoiler I guess]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

@Chibi Pika that said as long as you claimed who else have you checked so far? Cant recall if you answered this. In case you die tonight knowing is good]]

"Bart, of course! On Night 1!"

 

[HelloYellow17]

View attachment 1453 "It's cuz we already have 11 special powers we know are in the game!"

2 rolecop
2 doctor
1 cop
1 bulletproof
1 serial killer
4 lovers

"Maybe the Serial Killer doesn't count...? Well, it's still 10. So for the Sylveon to be telling the truth, that means no other powers! Which mean, no other bad guy powers."

“Wait,” Wes said with a frown. “Didn’t the Sylveon say there would be no more than 10 power roles? And here we are, already aware of ten of them—but weren’t we told that heal clash exists? And doesn’t that mean there must be two doctors? If that’s the case, then that means there are more than 10 power roles…and that Sylveon is lying.”

[[Yeah at first I was inclined to believe Espy’s claim but then I actually thought about it, lol. Also, doesn’t 10 vanilla sound like a lot? I get that this is supposed to be vanilla but idk, given how everything else has played out so far, I find it hard to believe that everyone else is vanilla. And since heal clash has been confirmed to exist in this game, that confirms the existence of two doctors, right? Or am I missing something here?]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

“Wait,” Wes said with a frown. “Didn’t the Sylveon say there would be no more than 10 power roles? And here we are, already aware of ten of them—but weren’t we told that heal clash exists? And doesn’t that mean there must be two doctors? If that’s the case, then that means there are more than 10 power roles…and that Sylveon is lying.”

"Yeah! I really just don't think it makes sense for the weird Yamask to not count? Even if having a kill power doesn't count as a special power--he was also bulletproof! He really should count... And there has to be two doctors, there just has to!"

 

[Equitial]

BARTHOLOMEW:
-lol im dead
-i'll literally innocent but im dead
-welp, watcha gonna do RIP
-vote: EspeonSparkling

[[
It'll be okay, guys. I've decided that this is actually the funniest timeline: after the last game, I'm literally the innocent Doctor but literally most people are 100% I'm guilty. When I am deaded it will be hilarious and also I'm finding this reversal completely fascinating--what has been going on.

Oh, and I realized this during the night phase but my suspicions of Chibi were 100% the result of paranoia, please ignore that. If Chibi was a scum Role Cop, it would have made zero sense for them to push at Mike, because whoops. Who will people gun for next after that? And then Chibi's post this day phase made it clear the simpler answer for all of this is...they aren't infallible and can misplay.

He also has an interesting propensity for revealing other players' roles before they claim, almost as if he knows he doesn't need to worry about info getting to the mafia. Pretty transparent, tbh.

My moderately self-aggrandizing theory for why I'm so scummy-looking this time around is that, since I'm actually innocent, I didn't put any effort into appearing so. Anyway that still counts as a misplay on my part, so I'm taking this as a learning experience.

Anyway, from my times as Mafia is that they're really good at finding the roles. The hints I picked up on, it was my assumption that the Mafia definitely already knew so it made no difference if I said anything. (I guess I could be wrong though, so this is something I'll ask about at the end of the game.) My advice is if you have a power role you want to keep hidden: NO HINTS. They will know.

[[After puzzling over it for a bit, I've just realised why Chibi is so certain Mafia Doctor might be part of this game's config, and I think I agree that it's plausible.]]

Like, uA was the one who outed Chibi here. Consider, the Mafia don't need to know exactly; they'll just gun for the person they think is most likely. The slightest hint and they got ya.

"If healers could kill people, then it would make sense for the bad guys to had one. And I was already pretty sure I knew who the good doctor was anyway.

I actually didn't pick up on this. I definitely agree there has to be another Doctor since heal clash, though I'm standing by Namo wouldn't make that a quirk twice in a row. And now I'm really hoping: the scum will probably kill Chibi next since why not. The identity of the hypothetical guilty Doctor will die with Chibi, but if I'm right we need our remaining Doctor alive.

while also being impossible to verify as true by any means because a single unclaimed dead vanilla/non-vanilla can alter the result, and is also rendered entirely redundant by Espy's hint.]]

This is also what I was thinking during the Night Phase, supported by my previous thinking that Espy's info would be likely to backfire on scum. But--

2 rolecop
2 doctor
1 cop
1 bulletproof
1 serial killer
4 lovers

It doesn't matter if SK is a role or alignment, Inke claimed to be Bulletproof which definitely is. That's 11 roles there which obviously not. Also, I do believe that we have two Townie Role Cops, but why would we have two if there were barely any Mafia roles to detect?

We probably have a 5-scum lineup based on what Fuse said (15 town, 5 scum, 1 SK seems right), but that's only one power role for all of them. Vanilla-ish game, yes, but I feel that's too unbalanced. So, I feel like if Espy is correct we need to re-evaluate our current claimed roles. I'd start with our bulletproof and a Lover pair. But... also right now it seems like Espy is just incorrect? Which means she's guilty, but then my issues with the proposed balance still remain. My vote between her and Goat isn't very confident, and please even if you're dead-set on voting me today try to figure out what's going on with these two.

BUT it was equi who started the bandwagon on them and almost got them lynched and ended up ousting them.

I didn't start the bandwagon. Dragonfree was the one who originally raised sus toward Pixie, and I just expressed willingness to vote whoever as long as we voted somebody.
]]