[Town victory] Vanilla Mafia!

[Sinderella]

[[I’m not at all following the Jean sus train, deadass thought our targets were Sparkleglimmer and Ebony today.

I’ve been stuck on that “Steven was/wasn’t our Rolecop for a while, because yeah, he can read people but he can’t see alignment? And we’ve kinda just been coasting on that because we were all so inclined to trust Steven? I know he flipped town when he died, but it was…weird. I was under the assumption I missed something about his read, that he knew their alignment somehow and didn’t really question it but no, my gut was right, how the hell did he know and why were we so gung ho to believe his read was right? Again, I know he flipped town, but there’s still a 50% chance he read wrong, right?

I could just not be combing the thread right because hi hello burnout 🥲 but I haven’t caught anything myself that makes me want to turn on Free, and I’m not following the logic—it seems to me like some people are grasping at straws and trying to find somebody to target. If somebody wants to master post why they find Free sus, I’m all ears, but right now it looks like we’re looking for a tunnel out of desperation here.

I’m still really stuck on Espy and their reads—I know they explained themselves, but I can’t get over the “I was hard sussing the lovers but didn’t get a read on the lovers” thing, because they were one of the ones I know was hard gunning for Perse and I, and I’m finding that really hard to just overlook, especially because the logic doesn’t quite make sense to me either way.

Haven’t seen enough from today Chibi to say anything about them yet, and GOAT is a fucking enigma. No clue.]]

 

[Homestar!]

[[I’m not at all following the Jean sus train, deadass thought our targets were Sparkleglimmer and Ebony today.

[[Salem was our doc, according to some softclaims. Chibi is our town!RC, as claimed D3. She found the strong-man (Free). Now Free is in Fight For Your Life mode.

See my previous picking-at-the-seams post, and the final conclusion that Free wasn't really clearing themselves; they're just blowing smoke in all directions and hoping someone else becomes more suspicious.]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[Salem was our doc, according to some softclaims. Chibi is our town!RC, as claimed D3. She found the strong-man (Free). Now Free is in Fight For Your Life mode.

See my previous picking-at-the-seams post, and the final conclusion that Free wasn't really clearing themselves; they're just blowing smoke in all directions and hoping someone else becomes more suspicious.]]

[[OH okay, got it. Thank you! Will wait for further postings from them, then.]]

 

[Dragonfree]

Oh, I had a reason for this multi-quote, right. I picked this out because, throughout your posts today, you didn't do very much to actually clear yourself of suspicion. You blew a ton of smoke in several different directions, but never actually made any claims that definitively exonerate yourself. You questioned other players, questioned the rules, even questioned the game. This felt like an attempt to raise suspicion of several other people all at once.

[[Here's the thing: in mafia people rarely have anything to "definitively exonerate themselves". The only actual accusations that have been levied against me are:

- Chibi says they rolecopped me and I'm strongman, I say I'm not; unfortunately, no, I can't definitively prove what my role is, because usually people can't do that
- I gunned particularly hard for Equitial (I have already contended that I did not, and this is as best I can tell being extrapolated merely from the fact I actually went through Equitial's posts and spent a lot of time talking about what about him was suspect as a result, while most people were content to say "Okay, we eliminate Equi today")
- but you guys free is so suspicious!!!

Please do ask if you have any further questions about my conduct, but expecting me to magic definitive proof of my innocence out of thin air or I'm guilty is silly; this is a game where definitive proof of anyone's innocence is deliberately hard to come by.

You can see, if you check my posts from previous days, that I've been pretty sure there are exactly two doctors; this was because of my info. I also, hilariously, forgot that strongman was even a role in this game yesterday. But no, that's not definitive proof of anything! That's not how the game works. Ultimately it's always a game of deciding who you believe.

Also Free said they were gonna convince us that Chibi was bad, but never actually did. So there's that.

Consider: maybe I sometimes I make plans to spend time doing things that are not playing mafia, and instead plan to do the exhausting review of the literally 90-page mafia at some slightly later point than within the next four hours after I mention it]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

Technically, Steven softclaimed that he knew some people's roles but not their alignments, and then said he trusted Kent. This is not actually mechanical confirmation of anything. Especially now that we have a third supposed rolecop.

At this point I'm starting to think Steven may have just been a vanilla who was wrong, and Hana and Kent have been coasting all too easily on that ever since. Logically, it's definitely either that, Yellow lied about her hint, or one of Chibi/Espy is not a rolecop at all, of any alignment.

[[You just threw suspicion at several people who have been largely read as “hard town” for most of this game (with the exception of Espy.) This is…not a good look, and I have to agree with Homestar that it seems like you’re blowing smoke in all directions to direct our attention away from yourself.

Chibi’s play as a mafia just doesn’t really make sense to me here, as they’re basically trading their life for yours if you flip innocent, and considering how close we are to narrowing this down, would be kind of a death sentence for mafia. From my understanding, mafia doesn’t do trades, especially in a game where there’s only four of them. They also rarely, if ever, start a vote train on a teammate. Yeah, it could be a tactic to secure innocence, but in a game of 20 players and only 4 (most likely) mafia? That just sounds like you’d be shooting yourself in the foot, tbh.

I’ll explain why I’ve been suspicious of you: you’ve been spectacularly hard to read this whole game. In fact, while going through my notes, I realized I’d been placing you as town but…didn’t really have any real evidence to back it up, it was simply that your play style seemed pretty towny. But after analyzing your posts, you’ve been pretty darn neutral and never really gunned for anyone except for Equi (who, to be fair, was playing scummy af.)

Previously, I wrote this off as you keeping your cards close to your chest because I assumed you were a power role—but it seems you aren’t, so the fact that a vanilla townie would try to stay so deliberately low-key is kinda weird to me.

That’s all I have to say for now.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Oh! One more thing:

I agree that Espy is sus AF, but it genuinely feels more like a townie who is out of the loop rather than a mafia member, because…idk? I don’t think mafia would let a teammate flounder so much without offering some guidance? The whole hint thing would be a big mistake for mafia to make. Don’t get me wrong, Espy is NOT in the clear for me yet, but I think we have bigger fish to fry today—AKA, you.

That said, if Espy is actually town, I do have to say that I’m not super thrilled at the lack of participation here. I get that people have busy lives, but if you’re not going to attempt to keep up with what’s happening, then it really hurts the other town players and gives scum an advantage because then you end up looking sus by default. It’s frustrating and tbh it was a huge sore spot for me last game because town got screwed over so hard by people being inactive and/or dropping out.

General PSA: Just be aware of how much you’re able to contribute before signing up for games. Please. ]]

 

[Sinderella]

General PSA: Just be aware of how much you’re able to contribute before signing up for games. Please. ]]

[[In my defense, I’ve been mildly inactive the past few days only because every time I catch up, people have already made connections that I was picking up on, so I don’t post so I don’t just repeat things that have been said. 🥲🥲]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[You just threw suspicion at several people who have been largely read as “hard town” for most of this game (with the exception of Espy.) This is…not a good look, and I have to agree with Homestar that it seems like you’re blowing smoke in all directions to direct our attention away from yourself.

Chibi’s play as a mafia just doesn’t really make sense to me here, as they’re basically trading their life for yours if you flip innocent, and considering how close we are to narrowing this down, would be kind of a death sentence for mafia. From my understanding, mafia doesn’t do trades, especially in a game where there’s only four of them. They also rarely, if ever, start a vote train on a teammate. Yeah, it could be a tactic to secure innocence, but in a game of 20 players and only 4 (most likely) mafia? That just sounds like you’d be shooting yourself in the foot, tbh.

I’ll explain why I’ve been suspicious of you: you’ve been spectacularly hard to read this whole game. In fact, while going through my notes, I realized I’d been placing you as town but…didn’t really have any real evidence to back it up, it was simply that your play style seemed pretty towny. But after analyzing your posts, you’ve been pretty darn neutral and never really gunned for anyone except for Equi (who, to be fair, was playing scummy af.)

Previously, I wrote this off as you keeping your cards close to your chest because I assumed you were a power role—but it seems you aren’t, so the fact that a vanilla townie would try to stay so deliberately low-key is kinda weird to me.

That’s all I have to say for now.]]

[[Thanks yellow. you cover a lot of my thoughts, I may type a thing to share my Free suspicions but yes, when accused your reaction was to flounder and blow smoke since you've been very obviously caught.



Scum Chibi play makes 0 sense and Free knows this which is why they can provide no real logical evidence other than blowing smoke at me and people who are weirdly town.

Also Phan sorta did the same thing but that is genuinely not my concern today. And I can agree Espy still isn't 100% cleared in my mind, though Free gunning for Espy and Free inevitably flipping scum may exonerate Espy? Not sure. I will be thinking but I will not be convinced by Free.

They are scum.

[[Oh! One more thing:

I agree that Espy is sus AF, but it genuinely feels more like a townie who is out of the loop rather than a mafia member, because…idk? I don’t think mafia would let a teammate flounder so much without offering some guidance? The whole hint thing would be a big mistake for mafia to make. Don’t get me wrong, Espy is NOT in the clear for me yet, but I think we have bigger fish to fry today—AKA, you.

That said, if Espy is actually town, I do have to say that I’m not super thrilled at the lack of participation here. I get that people have busy lives, but if you’re not going to attempt to keep up with what’s happening, then it really hurts the other town players and gives scum an advantage because then you end up looking sus by default. It’s frustrating and tbh it was a huge sore spot for me last game because town got screwed over so hard by people being inactive and/or dropping out.

General PSA: Just be aware of how much you’re able to contribute before signing up for games. Please. ]]

Also yes thank you.

Please. Please. I understand thigns arise during the game but. Yeah just. I agree here.

I'm only here for a short time so if I can I might try to post why I sussed Free but also I dont have to because Chibi already proved they were scum. its allllmost irrelevant.]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[[You just threw suspicion at several people who have been largely read as “hard town” for most of this game (with the exception of Espy.) This is…not a good look, and I have to agree with Homestar that it seems like you’re blowing smoke in all directions to direct our attention away from yourself.

[[Can I just point out that I have been saying for a while now that we can't be sure Steven was rolecop. I'm not pulling this out now all of a sudden to "divert attention", these are just the same things I've been trying to point out for half the game. Same with the serial killer rolecop thing. I quoted these things to write these responses before I even got to the point in the thread where Chibi accused me. It just bugs me a whole lot when people take things for granted that can't actually be taken for granted, and always has.]]

I’ll explain why I’ve been suspicious of you: you’ve been spectacularly hard to read this whole game. In fact, while going through my notes, I realized I’d been placing you as town but…didn’t really have any real evidence to back it up, it was simply that your play style seemed pretty towny. But after analyzing your posts, you’ve been pretty darn neutral and never really gunned for anyone except for Equi (who, to be fair, was playing scummy af.)

Previously, I wrote this off as you keeping your cards close to your chest because I assumed you were a power role—but it seems you aren’t, so the fact that a vanilla townie would try to stay so deliberately low-key is kinda weird to me.

[[Thank you for explaining!

I'm kind of surprised you've found me low-key, I admit; I feel like I've been writing up pretty extensive thoughts on most everything. On D1 I suspected several people, one of them Pixie (which was why the Pixie train happened), while taking a strong stance against killing Clovis. D2 wound up revolving entirely around the Anti/Altair debacle, in which I took a strong stance that we should kill Altair and not the cop; not sure what sort of gunning you expected from me that day, when Altair obviously pressingly had to be resolved. D3, I admit, I wish in hindsight that I'd found it more alarming how little anyone (except Persephone) was defending Equi and looked closer at alternatives, but I was pretty zonked out that day and had no time or energy left over once I'd finally managed to make my way through Equi's posts.]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

That said, if Espy is actually town, I do have to say that I’m not super thrilled at the lack of participation here. I get that people have busy lives, but if you’re not going to attempt to keep up with what’s happening, then it really hurts the other town players and gives scum an advantage because then you end up looking sus by default. It’s frustrating and tbh it was a huge sore spot for me last game because town got screwed over so hard by people being inactive and/or dropping out.

General PSA: Just be aware of how much you’re able to contribute before signing up for games. Please. ]]

[[When I signed up for this, I didn't know my schedule was going to be totaled or that the game was going to be this mad. I thought this was going to be a low-key game that was much less of a hassle to keep up with. The second vaccine hit me like a truck out of left field, and I was out of the house for one of those days! And then school ended up being a lot more hassle than I wanted it to be for factors that are completely out of my control. And I have done my best to keep up despite that. Even if I wasn't posting too much and didn't have the best grasp on stuff, I've at least made efforts. I didn't just disappear once the game began and provide jack squat. So, y'know... stuff happens. I'm not super thrilled at being gunned at from this angle when I've already pointed out these are things that weren't in my control.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[In my defense, I’ve been mildly inactive the past few days only because every time I catch up, people have already made connections that I was picking up on, so I don’t post so I don’t just repeat things that have been said. 🥲🥲]]

[[GIRL YOU VIBING DON’T WORRY 💛 I understand that things happen and sometimes people are more active on some days than others! I was more addressing if someone feels like they’re too busy to be engaged with the game at all, then it might be worth reconsidering. Stepping away for a day or two to recover/take a break/deal with irl stuff is totally valid!]]

 

[Persephone]

[[ So the entire day comes down to whether we believe Chibi or Dragonfree, because at least one is scum. (Also I wouldn’t necessarily say DF flipping mafia means Chibi is innocent. Scum are probably fairly close to victory and with two lover pairs they really just need one of their number to be above suspicion until the end of the game. Extra easy if you picked off info roles early.

I’m inclined to believe Chibi for now. Starting the bandwagon on a teammate on the first day before info roles are gone is a bold strategy. Dragonfree, as others have noted, hasn’t been checking the people she’s skeptical of. Rather she’s been checking for potential power roles. I don’t like that at all, so the choice becomes clear.

Dragonfree. ]]

 

[Dragonfree]

I’m inclined to believe Chibi for now. Starting the bandwagon on a teammate on the first day before info roles are gone is a bold strategy. Dragonfree, as others have noted, hasn’t been checking the people she’s skeptical of. Rather she’s been checking for potential power roles. I don’t like that at all, so the choice becomes clear.

[[Are you confusing me with Espy here? I'm vanilla; I haven't been checking anyone.]]

 

[Persephone]

[[ Nevermind. I have confused Dragonfree with Espy, who I’m also 90% sure is scum. Nonetheless my vote stands because of Chibi’s D1 vote. ]]

 

[TheGOAT]

[[I’m caught up on today’s events, though the amount of reading certainly muddled some things. I was expecting gameplay to be about a magnitude slower when I initially signed up, and my schedule’s also taken a nosedive since. I apologize, I’ll take my lashes, and then I’ll move forward with the understanding that this pacing is well above what I’m capable of at the skill level I’m currently at. >.>;

Anyway, spending the last 2+ hours digesting the latest events has, judging by the page count, given me only a small glimpse into some of the deductions that have happened all game. The basic bits I’ve been able to pick up that are relevant as of late is that tetra worked out that one of either Espy, Phan, and myself is town, with the other two being scum, but Phan contends that this might not necessarily be true. I’m generally inclined to avoid making hard assumptions in a crazy guessing-game like this, but I’m still lacking much of the context needed to be sure. If tetra could point me towards when her reasoning for that happened—or type it up cumulatively if it doesn’t already exist on a previous page—that would be appreciated. I know for a fact that I’m town, so naturally that would be something I’d be curious about.

Also, there’s a voting train aimed at Free because of Chibi’s rolecheck, and Free’s contending that Chibi is actually mafia just making a claim, and that Steven not initially being a rolecop is a possibility that could then make possible that Free is innocent. Again, I’m missing hours and hours of readings’ worth of context, as this is clearly something multi-layered that extends back a ways into the game.

Making deductions based on surface level/incomplete info is something I’m very hesitant to do. Here’s what I know for sure: I am vanilla town, and the hint I received said, “There is an even number of vanilla town and vanilla mafia total.” My goal at this stage in the game is to minimize the chances that town loses, and for the time being, that involves waiting and absorbing more info so that I’m less inclined to vote with the mafia based on false information.]]

 

[Homestar!]

“There is an even number of vanilla town and vanilla mafia total.”

[[I won't bombard you immediately with anything else --- we're waaaay the hell in the weeds here, and this game has been a rollercoaster --- but I did want to iron something out:

Do you mean to say that the number of vanilla players is split evenly across mafia and town
or
Do you mean that, adding together Mafia and Town, there is a result that is an even number?

Given that wording, I am inclined to believe the latter. But (and perhaps I was simply confused) I initially took it to mean the former.]]

 

[TheGOAT]

[[Judging by the phrasing given (i.e. the word “total”), I also believe it’s the latter. The total number of vanilla mafia and town, when all added together, is an even number.]]

 

[Homestar!]

[[Judging by the phrasing given (i.e. the word “total”), I also believe it’s the latter. The total number of vanilla mafia and town, when all added together, is an even number.]]

[[Sweet, that honestly puts you off my radar for now. Thanks for coming back! Let us know if we can be of any help!]]

 

[Namohysip]

"Um... well, while this is happening... it seems the day is getting over soon," Eien said. "I'd make more tutorials, but I don't think there is much of a need for one just yet. Maybe I can make it easier with another hint! Give me a moment, I'll be sure to find one useful!"

Evening vote count:

Jean: 6 (Chibi, Flyg0n, Phant, Homestar, Yellow, Persephone)

No vote: Espeon, Goat, Sinderella, Abra, Fusion, Dragonfree

Less than a day remains.

 

[Dragonfree]

[[Examining Chibi's famed Porygon vote, since it's the main thing making everyone trust them...

- This is where the vote happens. Chibi makes it clear the vote is kind of random and reluctant, not throwing much actual suspicion on Porygon. At this point Clovis is leading the vote, and Chibi doesn't exactly encourage anyone to follow their particular vote; they're just emphatically voting "someone who hasn't claimed lover".
- Later, after the Pixie train had taken over (technically this is also after Clovis claimed Pixie was a lover, but Chibi was clearly writing the post before this happened), Chibi again expressed hesitance about actually eliminating Porygon, while expressing that they felt wary of how fast the Pixie train had taken off.
- And finally, after the Pixie train collapsed and Porygon took over again... Chibi seized upon the vague discussion of the possibility of deliberately pushing for a day extension and called for doing it for real.

This really isn't the ironclad exonerating evidence it's being made out to be. The vote was definitely made at a somewhat risky time, but it wasn't a rallying call for a train on Porygon. Even while expressing some hesitation over the Pixie train, they didn't actually try to get people to move to Porygon instead - and once it actually looked like Porygon'd be eliminated, they made a last-ditch attempt to stop it. Of course none of this is damning either - I think we were all reluctant to eliminate Porygon! - but this all easily rhymes with a mafia motivation:

- people have been expressing suspicion of Porygon throughout the day; the mafia is worried this means he might get eliminated early, and thus really wants to establish some distance if possible
- hence, resident deep stealth mafia Chibi throws a distancing vote on Porygon when they'd naturally want to vote for Somebody Else, without actually pushing to get them eliminated
- Pixie train picks up; the mafia knows she'll flip innocent, and that they'll want to cast suspicion on those who voted for her afterwards, so Chibi posts about how they're a little wary of it and doesn't change their vote, but also doesn't want this to result in people getting back on Porygon, so in the same post they make Porygon not sound like a great alternative
- and then when oops Pixie is lover and everyone moves onto Porygon, obviously they don't want to make some desperate attempt to get people to vote for someone else, which'd look very bad, but when the topic of extending the day is raised, they try to go for it]]