Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

Rocky continued scribbling in the dirt, only to stop with a sudden screech, tapping fervently at his diagrams.

"Rocky worried we are in EoL right now. Is true one Bad Guy must be currently eliminated. But we don't know if more than one is out."

"If two Bad Guys still in game, and we vote out Good player tonight, nothing stopping Bad Guys from getting rid of another Good Guy in the night, then next day starts with 2 Good Guys and 2 Bad Guys, and in that case, Bad Guys win."

"If we not one hundred percent sure Spectrier is Bad guy, we all die! Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad--"

[[With 6 players remaining still alive, if we mislynch today, scum kills another in the night, and we start D5 with 2 Town and 2 Scum and that's an automatic win for Scum since ghost votes don't count.]]

 

[windskull]

-Chibi/Phant(Phant is not the demon)
-Chibi/Aer
-Chibi/Persephone
-Aer/Persephone
-Aer/Phant(Phant is not the demon)

[[Looking at this again. Short of hardcore bussing, I don't think Aer/Persephone is a likely pairing based on the D2 gameplay. Because of that, the list is really more like...
-Chibi/Phant (Phant is not the demon)
-Chibi/Aer
-Chibi/Persephone
-Aer/Phant(Phant is not the demon)

Or I was poisoned, then you could put Phant/Persephone on the table but I don't think that's reasonable based on the same reasons I don't think Aer/persephone is.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

"If we not one hundred percent sure Spectrier is Bad guy, we all die! Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad--"

"Okay, yeah, that's why I'm voting for them. I mean, what possible two-person evil team do you see that doesn't include them? They're all pretty far-fetched. The only one I can see is Maddie and Elegym, which'd be bizarre given the claimed redcheck. If you called it as Elegym and I then you have no fucking info roles and we went crazy hard pushing for Maddie in a bizarre way just to back down when we could've forced the miselim though."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

forced the miselim though

[[*through]]

Morgan tried her best to lock eyes with Rocky, although she wasn't sure if those really were eyes on the front of his head. "I'm serious here. I've humoured your complex about the horse so far because you don't seem to be plausibly evil. But if you really want to try to pull our votes off the horse... Well, I won't listen either way, but you should at least tell everyone else which other scumteam you're worried we're not covering for, and which player on it is even more likely to be evil than the horse. Take the shot. Won't even hurt my feelings if you include me."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[Even Chibi's posting isn't positing that we're at Elim or Lose right now if they're town. I don't think this is a concern I can understand, sorry.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

With 6 players remaining still alive, if we mislynch today, scum kills another in the night, and we start D5 with 2 Town and 2 Scum and that's an automatic win for Scum since ghost votes don't count.]]

[[This much we agree on!

Been saying this, this is what I was trying to prevent yesterday lol

Cannot afford a mislynch]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

Yes we ARE of course you're saying this

"If you believe that we are at ELO, and you actually believe I am the demon, then you should not be taking issue with my pact!"

[[Seriously, it doesn't even make sense to say that me saying we're not at ELO is some kind of ploy because I believe we have eliminated two scum, and I'm offering to be eliminated to prove I'm not the demon. So unless you think the remaining scumteam is Morgan/Elgyem or Madeline/Elgyem (??????) then you should be fine with this.]]

The self-vote from Chibi is also really baffling. Whyyyyy do that if we're so close to EoL? We have no way to know if there's one or two scum left, and if it's two, well, voting yourself out if you're town doesn't seem like the smartest play. But someone can correct me if that assumption is wrong.

"If two Bad Guys still in game, and we vote out Good player tonight, nothing stopping Bad Guys from getting rid of another Good Guy in the night, then next day starts with 2 Good Guys and 2 Bad Guys, and in that case, Bad Guys win."

"If we not one hundred percent sure Spectrier is Bad guy, we all die! Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad--"

[[Likewise, the reason I was comfortable making that offer is (1) to show I fully intended to keep my word from yesterday, (2) because I know that the only way we'd lose is if the remaining scum were either Morgan/Elgyem or Madeline/Elgyem (I do not believe either is feasible), and (3) because it would prove I'm not the demon. There are now two separate inspections on me and I would really like to just prove I'm not the demon the only way I can so that we can move on from it, otherwise we're going to have to go through this exact same thing again tomorrow, which sounds exhausting.]]

[[And before tetra says something like "oh well obviously chibi is poisoner then" I can't poison anyone if I'm dead! I'm pretty sure poison has already been removed from play, but self-eliminating means no one else has to be paranoid about it either. It just drastically reduces the possibility space and makes the inforoles guaranteed reliable, and if I don't do it, then everyone's just going to keep debating about me forever. @_@]]

[[Also my ability is garbage and I might be salty about it.]]

"Ah, it appears one of our number has been altered," he purred, bemusedly. "Welcome, Herdier. Are you already familiar with the rules?"

Glastrier glanced at the Herdier with mild interest. "Ah, a newcomer. You're in luck--the seat you have taken is that of an innocent."

[[In any case, I am pretty damn sure I just figured out what the poison sequence was, I need to type it up and make sure I didn't overlook anything obvious, but I realized one of the assumptions previously made about N0 was never actually confirmed.]]

 

[windskull]

[[And before tetra says something like "oh well obviously chibi is poisoner then" I can't poison anyone if I'm dead! I'm pretty sure poison has already been removed from play, but self-eliminating means no one else has to be paranoid about it either. It just drastically reduces the possibility space and makes the inforoles guaranteed reliable, and if I don't do it, then everyone's just going to keep debating about me forever. @_@]]

[[If that's the case, how do we explain the differences between Aer's result last night and the night before? I'm trying to wrap my head around that. Because for that to work one of the following scenarios would have to take place, right?
1. Aer is lying - in which case we should be gunning for them as the most suspicious
2. Aer was poisoned N1 and N3 - The poisoner is still alive, and perhaps poisoned you on N2, if you are town
3. Aer was poisoned N2 - In this case, for the poisoner to be dead, the poisoner would have to be Jackie, which would mean YOU would have to be Drunk and your "undertaker" reads on Rui and Jackie had to be insanely unlucky (Reading Rui as drunk when you are, reading Jackie as exactly what their fake claim is). And if this is the case, we should be concerned about Demon Persephone again.
4. Aer is drunk. Then you would have to be poisoned N1 or lying because Rui wouldn't be drunk, and would be either poisoned or lying.

I'm curious what your thoughts on what the poison sequence is and who you think the poisoner is in this situation. But as it stands, I'm inclined to believe they're still around. ]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

"I believe I have discovered the sequence of poisoning. Pay attention!"

[[Okay, I think I've got the solve. So, I was kicking around the thought that Rui was poisoned, and that's how her intel was wrong without being the drunk, except for the fact that on a previous day, Morgan had been assuming she was poisoned N0. So I ran through the nights assuming she wasn't poisoned N0:

N0
Rui: One of Hareta and Watt is the Scarlet Woman (poisoned)
Elgyem: Both Rui and Hareta registered as Good.
Morgan: One of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.

N1
Elgyem: One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil.
Morgan: Neither Rocky nor Madeline registered as Demon. (poison explains the discrepancy with N0?)

N2
Elgyem: Both Madeline and Hareta registered as Good (poison explains the discrepancy with N1?)
Morgan: Neither Drake nor Spectrier registered as Demon.

N3
Elgyem: One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil.
Morgan: One of Elgyem and Spectrier registered as Demon. (see below)

The big thing that jumps out at me is that in the scenario where Morgan's N1 result was accurate and Elgyem is lying, then the scumteam would have had to just not used their poison N1. (Or else they aimed at someone else and missed???) I really don't find that likely at all, and that's why I think Morgan was poisoned N1.

There's also a discrepancy in that there's a separate demon ping on both Madeline and Elgyem that poison doesn't account for. Unless one of them is the false positive. There was some talk earlier that Watt was the false positive, but I'm not seeing any reason he has to be. I am now pretty damn sure one of them is the false positive and one of them is the demon, which means I need to go back and read through everything from both of them because I am not resting on my previous reads of them, not when it would put us into a 50/50 between winning and losing. (I'd be in favor of eliminating both of them back-to-back, except for the part where we'd just arrive back at everyone debating over me for a third day in a row. Please no.)]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[Hey hold on a sec. Given that drunk, as I understand it, would have gotten a random result... If Chibi was drunk/poisoned, that would be a 1/22 (or 1/21 given their own presumed undertaker role?) chance that they'd read Jakie as the ravenkeeper role, right??? It's not impossible, but it is improbable.

"No. It is not random information. It is misleading information."

[[From what I can tell, the info will be misleading in such a way that will make it non-obvious whether or not it's wrong. If I'd gotten a result like, I dunno, Soldier, then it'd be immediately obvious it was wrong, so it wouldn't be very misleading. This is also why telling the drunk that someone else was the drunk is so powerful.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[That is indeed how it usually works, although I wrote up and deleted something about recalling someone saying it was randomized when I couldn't source the quote, so I wonder where both Wind and I got that impression... Worth asking Inke about it probably? At worst she can't answer which'd be fair enough.]]

 

[Inkedust]

[[That is indeed how it usually works, although I wrote up and deleted something about recalling someone saying it was randomized when I couldn't source the quote, so I wonder where both Wind and I got that impression... Worth asking Inke about it probably? At worst she can't answer which'd be fair enough.]]

Are you asking now?

Edit: Whoops, that's way vaguer than I'd intended to cone off as. Just trying to clarify whether you're asking me this publicly or not.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[Yeah sure why not]]

 

[Inkedust]

While I cannot get into exact specifics of how I may handle Drunk/Poison, for the purposes of this game, I consider random and misleading one and the same.

 

[HelloYellow17]

NOT POSSIBLE* - DIED TO VIRGIN
*UNLESS SPY,

[[I’m confused about the Spy disclaimer here because one can only die to Virgin if they are Town. That should make Watt locktown, no?

[[Likewise, the reason I was comfortable making that offer is (1) to show I fully intended to keep my word from yesterday, (2) because I know that the only way we'd lose is if the remaining scum were either Morgan/Elgyem or Madeline/Elgyem (I do not believe either is feasible), and (3) because it would prove I'm not the demon. There are now two separate inspections on me and I would really like to just prove I'm not the demon the only way I can so that we can move on from it, otherwise we're going to have to go through this exact same thing again tomorrow, which sounds exhausting.]]

[[Honestly this is a pretty convincing argument. Don’t know that I agree with it, because if there are two scum left, then self voting when you’re not scum is a terrible move. But I can’t imagine how exhausting all the debate around you has been, so I feel that.

You seem very convinced then that we have eliminated two scum. Who do you think they are, then? Do you still stand by a Jackie/Tetra scumteam even with your read on Jackie?

If Jackie is scum, they’re playing off the aftermath remarkably well. So, if it turns out they were scum all along, massive kudos for that because I’m second guessing everything over here. 😅

My gut says it has to be between Madeline or Elgyem. I can’t for the life of me envision two living scum left between Elgyem, Madeline, or Morgan. (As in, I can’t picture any of them as scum buddies from their play.)

Phan/Chibi scumteam makes no sense since Phan has been gunning for them for a while.

Aer/Chibi scumteam doesn’t make much sense either since Aer has been very willing to vote them out since D2.

Perse/Chibi on the other hand…

Either Chibi is town and tired of the endless debate (valid, but it hinges on having already found two scum which we can’t be sure of?), or they’re scum and trying to take heat off the demon, which at this point I feel can only be Persephone. Granted, idk what to make of their latest post because it left off kind of inconclusively. Seemed like they were pointing at Persephone but also it’s late, I’m tired, and I skimmed the backlog to catch up so idk how much I’m understanding correctly.

Wow sorry this ramble is an incoherent mess. TLDR: I think I’ve narrowed my suspicions down to Chibi or Persephone, but I’m heavily leaning towards Persephone as the actual Demon.]]

 

[JFought]

Oscar nodded to Malachai. "I appreciate your concern. However, I am fully aware of the rules of this game. In fact, while I may only join now, I have been spectating since it's beginning!"

Oscar's confidence felt hollow without Benigno by his side to give it substance. But this group couldn't know that. Just speak with conviction: the game is close to solved by this point anyway.

The great detective held his head high and addressed the horse next. "And of course I am innocent! I am the esteemed, Great Detective Oscar! And I am here to utilize my vaunted deductive reasoning skills to relieve you all of the burden of solving this mystery!"

[[Hi, I'm here to sub in for Zdr and save the game from an EoL scenario! No need to onboard me, as Oscar said, I've been spectating this game from the beginning and am already like, super invested lol. To just run through my suspicion table real quick:

Drake, Odette, and Watt are confirmed Town, Rocky may as well be confirmed Butler, so that just leaves...

Hareta, now Oscar (me!)	I was already under the impression they were Hard Town while spectating, and it goes without saying that impression hasn't changed! The Washerwoman claim was too strong and nothing about their behavior felt evil. Since I didn't suspect them to begin with, when I speak, I am speaking from the perspective I possessed as a spectator watching the game, and in regards to their innocence, I can only hope that everyone can continue to trust precedent on this.
Morgan (Shiny Phantump)	Hard Town. Frankly, the only way I see Morgan possibly being evil is if she's the demon with Madeline as Poisoner, and there's so much wrong with even that. Their play has been consistently Town even in situations where playing town would be bad for mafia (such as breaking the tie yesterday). I won't discount the possibility, I just feel like the stars would have to be aligned to make it true, starting with Watt's info being wrong and getting crazier from there.
Drake (Flygon) and Rui (HellowYellow	One is scum. Like everyone else, I believe our first dead mafia is either Drake or Rui. I think they're both equally likely, and at this point in the game I also don't think it matters which one it is anymore (except for arguing, like, very specific scenarios. They're mostly interchangeable). Drake being evil opens up the possibility for Drunk!Rui, but that's basically the only difference outside of analyzing their plays and trying to figure out likelihoods from that. Personally I have more sus on Drake then Rui, Rui hasn't really pinged to me as super evil so far, but I'm not discounting it if I think it makes more sense.
Malachai (uA)	Neutral. I was pretty convinced of their guilt Day 2 but the recent read by the horses changed things. I think voting them out actually worked out in town's favor overall, since that move by Morgan plus subsequent call from Spectrier helped to limit the possibility space for scum teams (which we wouldn't have gotten if Chibi had died). Now, there are still a few possibilities for evil!Malachai, but their guilt is much less likely overall and hinges on things like drunk!Spectrier. And if they are evil, well, they're dead lol.
Spectrier (Chibi Pika)	Most likely scum. The only likely scenario where they aren't scum is if they're the drunk. But since all the most likely scum teams at this point include them, I kind of have to assume their guilt. I definitely don't think they're the demon, though. If Spectrier is the demon, then Morgan wasn't poisoned. But if Morgan wasn't poisoned, then Elygem must have been. But if Elygem was poisoned, then Madeline is the Poisoner, and just poisoned Elygem to point a finger at herself. Which isn't an invalid play if you're just trying to prolong the game, but it would certainly be something! And we're voting Chibi out regardless, so.
Madeline (Persephone) and Elygem (Aer)	One is the demon. I agree with everyone on this, it seems pretty clear at this point. Madeline has gotten pinged as evil quite a few times, and obviously that would make most sense if she is, though it would require a poisoner to have been in play alongside her for most of the game. Personally, I think Elygem is more likely, just because it seems... neater, I guess? There were a few suspicious plays, but what it really comes down to is that the possible scum teams with a Demon!Elygem in it just make more intuitive sense to me with the way the game has been played than the ones that don't. Will probably elaborate later but am tired and I mostly just need to get this post out to get my foot in the door and indicate where I lean rn.

[[Also I'd like to say, I had been planning to come in and point out that if we assume Elygem is the demon, the poisoner is most likely dead, but it looks like Phan beat me to the punch, I took waaaay too long to make this post lol. Narrowing the scum teams down was actually most of what I was thinking about offering here, so I'd just like to corroborate those claims and say that that I think Demon!Maddie/Poisoner!Spectrier/Who!Cares and Demon!Elygem/SW!Spectrier/Dead!Poisoner are the most likely scum teams, with most other possibilities relying on ambiguity from things like whoever the drunk is, or unlikelihoods like Elygem and Madeline being on a team together.]]

[[To comment on what the GM just said, if drunk's info could be entirely random, that makes Town!Chibi substantially less likely, right? If we assume Chibi is innocent but not drunk, off the top of my head that would only leave Demon!Elygem/Morgan, Demon!Elygem/Madeline, and Demon!Morgan/Madeline as valid scum pairs, I think. All of which are tough to argue for.]]

 

[JFought]

[[Also I have work running through the middle of the day Monday, so I won't get to say more for potentially up to 15 hours from now, unless I can manage something in the morning.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

I’m confused about the Spy disclaimer here because one can only die to Virgin if they are Town. That should make Watt locktown, no?

[[Actually, the Spy can die to Virgin bc the Spy registers as Good. It's in the wiki as a method of gaining huge towncred, even. The main reason we don't believe this is because if there was a spy the scumteam would've shot Dave N1.]]

, I've been spectating this game from the beginning and am already like, super invested lol

[[sick. best mafia substitute ever]]

The only likely scenario where they aren't scum is if they're the drunk.

"I refuse to believe that our ostensible Undertaker is Drunk when they just declared me Ravenkeeper. If your assertion is correct, then is far more likely they are a manipulator."