Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Persephone]

"You all talk a lot for people with nothing much new to talk about. But, fine, I can haul myself out again and share my thoughts and defenses with the world.

Yes, I have been falsely read a few times. This could be because of poisoning, false positives, or, perhaps, that the Elgyem is lying~~~

In hindsight, I should have saved my slayer shot for right about now. Even if I was getting poisoned, at least that would save our info roles. But I'd just been red-checked twice and I was getting a lil nervous that this was quite literally a do-or-die moment. My thoughts on Rui, the horses, and Malacahi are that they're playing about how they should with that role (claim) whether or not they're scum. I guess I can talk a little more about what last night says about the game?

CLAIMS

Morgan reads Glastrier and Elgyem. One is the demon.

Elgyem reads that one of Hareta or I is scum.

Glastrier reads that Malachai was the ravenkeeper.

We have every reason to believe that Rocky and Hareta are town.

So, some possibilities (please note that when I say "poisoned," it could also include drunk, which I had not considered until I was deep in the list):

1) No one is poisoned, no one is lying, no false positives: This cannot be true since one of Elgyem or Glastrier would have to be scum and, therefore, lying.

2) No one is poisoned, no one is lying, Morgan hit a false positive: I would be scum. I would be the only scum left.

3) Morgan was poisoned, no one is lying: I would be scum. I would be the only scum left.

4) Elgyem was poisoned, no one is lying: This is impossible. There would be no scum left.

5) Spectrier was poisoned, no one is lying: I would be scum, I would be the only scum left.

6) Morgan is lying, no one was poisoned: I guess Morgan and I would have to simultaneously be scum? This seems unlikely since it would require Watt to have been poisoned N0. I am discounting this, even if it is technically possible.

7) Elgyem is lying, no one was poisoned: Elgyem is scum, they are the only scum left.

8) Spectrier is lying, no one was poisoned: ...why tho? Confirming Malachai as scum would have been much easier for shoring up their defense. Oh, and I guess under this scenario Chibi and I would be scum.

9) Spectrier was poisoned, Elgyem and Morgan are both lying: Uh... then I guess Malachai, Elgyem, Morgan are our scum team? This is technically possible, but I'm going to dismiss it as a little implausible.

10) Morgan was poisoned, Elgyem and Spectrier are both lying: Well, then we have our scum team. Probably with Drake.

11) Elgyem was poisoned, Morgan and Spectrier are lying: Morgan / Spectrier scum team, probably with Drake.

12) Elgyem was poisoned, Spectrier is lying: Spectrier is scum, potentially alongside Morgan.

13) Elgyem was poisoned, Morgan is lying: Morgan is the only scum.

14) Morgan was poisoned, Elgyem is lying: Uhhh. I guess this is Elgyem as the only scum? It would be weird to consistently frame me if we were scumbuddies.

15) Morgan was poisoned, Spectrier is lying: Spectrier and I are scum.

16) Spectrier was poisoned, Morgan is lying: Morgan is the sole remaining scum.

17) Spectrier was poisoned, Elgyem is lying: Elgyem is the only remaining scum.



[[Yeah I kind of confused myself. I do find Chibi's play to be way too willing to die for this time of the game for someone who's actually innocent. I know as scum I've feigned a willingness to die to get heat off of me. Which does mean it's also kind of too dumb of a play for scum!Chibi to make? I'm frankly more confident Malachai was scum than Rui, so I think, positionally speaking, my vote will be for Elgyem, again.]]

 

[Persephone]

"Oh, and my gut is telling me that the actual scenario is that the horses were poisoned, the Elgyem is lying, and they're the only scum left."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

DRAKE

UNLIKELY? - Drake is #1 Spectrier hater, seems unwise to bus so hard as scum buddies to leave only 1 scum alive afterward. Could imply Spectrier lied about Drake's scum role, and Scarlet Woman is still in play to not be worried about bussing 1/2 remaining scum roles and are confident we'll never find the last scum player.

"Eh. I don't feel the need to put too much stock in that. Horsie wouldn't wanna tie themself to the rat's sinking ship. Rat's gotta act appropriately pissed about being flipped evil in turn or they've got no reason to exist. Evils'll bicker with each other on the regular to create distance. I'll give him this, though, if they are on the same team he's pretty damn committed to the bit~"

"Oh, and my gut is telling me that the actual scenario is that the horses were poisoned, the Elgyem is lying, and they're the only scum left."

"Huh? Who's doing the poisoning in this case? Can't be Mal or the Horsie would've flipped 'em once they died. Can't be the rat, or Horsie would've been able to flip 'em once they died. Same problem for Rui. A poisoner can't hide a poisoner's death, and the poisoner hasn't flipped yet. That's why they're now calling themselves drunk, but that's... a bit of a reach."

Morgan shrugged. She was lucky she didn't have actual flesh shoulders to tire out, felt like she was doing that a lot. "It's not impossible for 'em to be drunk, but in that case I feel like we gotta start calling... Dunno, a Rui, Mal, Elegym scumteam? Feels weird to me. Breaks the Baker rule and requires two of them come swinging out the gate lying through their teeth for no clear reason. Would be pretty damn weird."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Wait, but you can fake this role?

[[Yeah, I said you can fake it. It's possible Madeline faked it. You can just say you're Slaying and then nothing will happen. What I was getting at is that either Madeline is scum and Morgan isn't, or Morgan is a minion and Madeline is town, or maybe they're both town, but they're probably not scumbuddies.]]

scribbled over diagrams

[[this is pretty sick, nice work]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

they're now calling themselves drunk

[[Phrasing correction: possibly drunk, my intended point being that they're not speculating that they're poisoned by a poisoner that'd almost certainly be dead due to that being logically impossible.]]

 

[Persephone]

"Oh. Right. The missing poison. Spectrier's poison. The poison meant for Spectrier. Right... Uh..."

[[Huh. That's... quite the conundrum, then. I guess I can strike 3, 4, 5, 13, 14, 16, and 17 as possible scenarios. 1 was already impossible and 6 is improbable. So, let's look at the remaining possibilities.

2) I am the only scum left.

7) Elgyem is the only scum left.

8) Horses and I are the only scum left.

9) Morgan and Elgyem are the only scum left.

10) Elgyem and Spectrier are the only scum left.

11) Morgan and Spectrier are the only scum left.

I am not scum. I cannot prove this, but it does narrow my thinking to possibilities 7, 9, 10, and 11.

Seven, if true, would mean that Malachai and Chibi are not scum. I guess Rui could be scum, but then Watt would have been poisoned or drunk. It's possible, but I'm not liking the odds.

So... nine, ten, and eleven. I think Morgan's play is too convoluted to be realistically scum. So... Elgyem and Spectrier. But given that there's a world where Elgyem is our only remaining scum and not one where Spectrier is, my vote is still on Elgyem.]]

 

[aer]

In hindsight, I should have saved my slayer shot for right about now. Even if I was getting poisoned, at least that would save our info roles. But I'd just been red-checked twice and I was getting a lil nervous that this was quite literally a do-or-die moment. My thoughts on Rui, the horses, and Malacahi are that they're playing about how they should with that role (claim) whether or not they're scum. I guess I can talk a little more about what last night says about the game?

"Yeah I'm not sure. Despite me trying to get the mimikyu unlynched a few times it's been consistently true that every day the mimikyu's been voting for me. If you're town, I'd say that I think you're locked in on me because you were the Slayer and really thought you were 50/50ing it on D2, and you should reconsider that, but I don't know if you're town."

"I think it comes down to evidence. Reading back with an eye for it, I noticed the rat Drake didn't seem to notice I was softclaiming. The evidence I have against it being the mimikyu basically hinges on the mafia realizing I was the Empath, and deciding to poison me N1 after they recognized my claim. Obviously no mafia's going to claim now that they didn't notice me claiming, but seeing how things are going I wonder if they noticed me in the first place. It feels kind of odd that we just let someone with two guilty reads on her just go off based on a hunch."

2) I am the only scum left.

How about 12) Madeline and Glastrier are the scum left. I think that's still possible.

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Exhausted, did a walk, might do one more post today of observations. Not that I feel i have much to offer, no vote and all lol]]

 

[aer]

POV: you're me right now

[[No note this made me laugh so hard.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Holy shit, looks like we're getting @JFought for this. Hey bud -- you're kinda getting in at the deep end by subbing in, but don't be intimidated. It's a silly game where we kill each other for seeming sus and whatever. I hope you have a good time and don't stress too much about the preceding 30 pages lmao. I'll give you a tl;dr of it all tomorrow if nobody else does first lol <3]]

Malachai turned his gaze to where the Squirtle had been stood.

"Ah, it appears one of our number has been altered," he purred, bemusedly. "Welcome, Herdier. Are you already familiar with the rules?"

 

[Flyg0n]

[[OMG hi jfought!!]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I happen to be compiling a list of stuff but it will not be perfect and I think its only fair that all of us try contribute and help to eliminate bias, hah welcome! Don't be too intimidated, nobody bites (hard). Happy to have you!]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Okay I pretty sure I gave my input multiple times so I'm not gonna bother right now. Instead I've been thinking about just trying to list some absolutes. Gonna avoid saying anything bias if I can rn. This is a sum up, mostly focusing on yesterday and the other days.

There's Two branching timelines

1) Wind was 100% correct

2) Dark evil fricked up timeline: Wind was poisoned/lying/spy whatever (to be clear I am not saying Wind could ever be spy, just making a point there's only two possibilities/ wind is accurate or not accurate, and if innaccurate it would be poison)

Let's put timeline 2 aside because thats whacked ahaha.

Timeline 1 - No Scum Pair Timeline

Spoiler

• Jackie voted Spectrier at the beginning of the day
• I Ghost Voted Spectrier shortly after (this is unchangeable)
• At some point during the day the votes tied between Jackie and Chibi
  • They cannot both be scum
• At the end of the day, the tie was broken by Phan, who voted Jackie
• Perse is a Slayer according to herself, and shot Phan. Thus if Perse is town, Perse was Poisoned or hit a Minion. If Perse is lying its a plot to pretend to be slayer
  • (Poison affects the night and next day)
• According to Phan's read, neither I nor Jackie are a Demon.
• Multiple power roles are getting conflicting reads. The sole explanation is poison, lying, or drunk
• Rui's Intel at Day Start is verifiably false. Poison, Lying, Drunk
• I claimed Mayor
• I was executed that same night
• Chibi called me Scarlet Woman the next day
• Jackie roleclaimed ravenkeeper
• Jackie was executed by the tiebreak
• Chibi calls Jackie a Ravenskeeper the next day
• Chibi believes they are Drunk
• Chibi believes Jackie is Scum
• Chibi believes Rui was poisoned
• Aer got a Scum read on Madeline nights 1 & 3 but none on Night 2
  • Day 1: Between Rui & Hareta - 0 evil
  • Day 2: Between Madeline & Hareta - 1 (poisoned?)Day 3: Between Madeline & Hareta - 0
• N0 one of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.
• N1 neither Rocky and Madeline registered as Demon.
• N2 Neither Chibi nor Drake is the Demon
• N3 Checked Aer & Chibi - Demon

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Okay i somehow hit enter on that way too early]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Please ignore? i guess??? Its incomplete and disorganized sorry y'all, gonna try and repost if I can muster the strength, UGH]]

 

[windskull]

[[Hey hold on a sec. Given that drunk, as I understand it, would have gotten a random result... If Chibi was drunk/poisoned, that would be a 1/22 (or 1/21 given their own presumed undertaker role?) chance that they'd read Jakie as the ravenkeeper role, right??? It's not impossible, but it is improbable. Like. Someone please fact check me bc I don't feel like I'm thinking straight but like.
-if jackie is town, Chibi would not be drunk/poisoned because they got the correct read
-if Jackie is Scum, Chibi could theoretically be drunk/poisoned but we're talking about a 5%ish chance they just happened to land on Jackie's fake claim.

(This is making me wonder if Chibi is maybe poisoner recognizing they've outlived their usefulness given the heat and trying to take the plunge, in which case we'd need to be looking at one of Perse/Aer as the demon, but I don't have the brain power for that right now)]]

 

[windskull]

[[Or maybe they'd have like a 5% chance as being right if Jackie is town? Either way like. That's weird. Either chibi is not poisoned/drunk or they're lying I think. And given player composition I'm inclined to believe the latter]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

So... Elgyem and Spectrier. But given that there's a world where Elgyem is our only remaining scum and not one where Spectrier is, my vote is still on Elgyem.

"Now that's what I call simplifying the game state~ Although if Elegym was our only scum, then both minions, poisoner included, are dead. So if the Horse was good here, I'd think the poisoner'd had flipped still, and I don't know who that'd be. So I think we could simplify it further, from where you're sitting I think both must look pretty evil."

[[Spoilers for where the thrust of this post is headed since it kinda bloated in scope as I wrote it: I have previously played with the possibility of Demon Maddie, Minion Horse and found it logically consistent. I'm about to take my suspicion that the remaining evils are Horse and either Maddie or Elegym and playing with all the remaining possibilities.]]

"Anyway, the reluctance to vote for the Horse until after Elegym had me worried that the Demon could be the horse, and Maddie the poisoner, fishing for a misexecution when they'd win the game that night. In that hypothetical..."

Morgan Result:	Watt or Maddie is Demon	Maddie is Nondemon	Rat/Horse Nondemon	Elegym/Horse Demon
Truth/Poison Value Above:	False (could be poison or false positive)	True	False (negative result could not be explained by a false positive, poisoned)	True
Elegym Result:	Rui & Oscar Good	Maddie or Oscar Evil	Maddie & Oscar Good	Maddie or Oscar Evil
Truth/Poison Value Above:	True, irrelevant	True	False (poisoned)	True

"Well, the results don't check out at all. 'Course, they could still both be evil if Maddie's the demon, but in that case she'd be happy to see Elegym gone in either order if that was the case. So I'll set that train of thought to rest. If Maddie's evil, I think she had to be the demon."

"At least from where I sit, and for anyone else confident in my innocence, a Minion Horse should only exist as a collaborator to a Demon Elegym, not a Demon Maddie. In which case, as the only real inforole to poison, my results would be..."

My Result:	Watt or Maddie is Demon	Maddie is Nondemon	Rat/Horse Nondemon	Elegym/Horse Demon
Truth Value	False (could be poison or false positive)	True	True	True

"Staggeringly accurate. You'd have to call the poisoner to be Drake, or maybe even Rui, then make Horsie the Scarlet Woman instead. That makes it plausible."

"And if we flip the script, make the horse the demon and Elegym the minion..."

My Result:	Watt or Maddie is Demon	Maddie is Nondemon	Rat/Horse Nondemon	Elegym/Horse Demon
Truth Value	False (could be poison or false positive)	True	False (Poisoned)	True (Somehow?)

"...It gets weirder. I'm not calling Mal the poisoner, but the poisoner'd be alive after we killed Rui and Drake, so I'd have to call Elegym the poisoner and then kinda have no good explanation for why I was able to get a true read tonight."

"So those are the two options I see: First option is what I already suggested in Dead Scarlet, Poisoner Horse, Demon Maddie. Secondly, Dead poisoner, Scarlet Horse, Demon Elegym. I... honestly don't like that. Would've rather gotten to call that I thought the Horsie was the Demon 'cause it'd signal the hopeful end of the game. But my convictions in the Horse's guilt remain the same, and I'd be happy to axe a minion. That way they have to let me get a surefire-unpoisoned read off, or go to an endgame with two townlocks. I like that better than trying to take a guess at which is which tonight. Plus, it might let us take out a Scarlet Woman, which is still important."

[[Also, hi JFought!!! Hope you enjoy subbing in for someone who's all but confirmed town to us!]]

 

[Flyg0n]

OKAY TAKE 2

I talked about this already but there's good and bad timeline.

Here is the first list of events in the "Wind wasnt poisoned"
(btw for anyone curious Drunks cannot activate Virgins! Thats good)
This is my best approximation of just trying to gather a bunch of general statements without any particular susses or guilt thrown in, just saying whats been said.

Spoiler: Timeline 1

• Jackie voted Spectrier at the beginning of the day 3
• I Ghost Voted Spectrier shortly after (this is unchangeable)
• At some point during the day 3 the votes tied between Jackie and Chibi
  • They cannot both be scum
• At the end of the day 3, the tie was broken by Phan, who voted Jackie
• Perse is a Slayer according to herself, and shot Phan. Thus if Perse is town, Perse was Poisoned or hit a Minion. If Perse is lying its a plot to pretend to be slayer
  • (Poison affects the night and next day)
• According to Phan's read, neither I nor Jackie are a Demon.
• Multiple power roles are getting conflicting reads. The sole explanation is poison, lying, or drunk
• Rui's Intel at Day Start is verifiably false. Poison, Lying, Drunk
• I claimed Mayor
• Jackie roleclaimed ravenkeeper
• I was executed that same night
• Chibi called me Scarlet Woman the next day
• Jackie was executed by the tiebreak
• Chibi calls Jackie a Ravenskeeper the next day
• Chibi believes they are Drunk
• Chibi believes Jackie is Scum
• Chibi believes Rui was poisoned
• Aer got a Scum read on Madeline nights 1 & 3 but none on Night 2
  • Day 1: Between Rui & Hareta - 0 evil Poisoned?
    • If poison, Rui could be evil? If Rui Evil, then not Drunk, could be Poison
  • Day 2: Between Madeline & Hareta - 1 poisoned?
  • Day 3: Between Madeline & Hareta - 0 poisoned?
• Phan reads:
  • N0 one of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.
    • Poisoned? If Poison, Rui was Drunk or Lying
  • N1 neither Rocky and Madeline registered as Demon.
    • Poisoned? if so Perse could be Demon
  • N2 Neither Chibi nor Drake is the Demon
  • N3 One of Aer & Chibi registered as Demon
• My read: Called chibi scum, I stated Chibi lied about Rui and are scum, this leaves phan
  
  Pairings we cannot have in this timeline: Two scum together
• Chibi/Jackie
• Perse/Phan
• Aer/Rui
• Hareta/Rui
• Rui/Perse

Remaining Ghost Votes: Yellow, Sind, Dave, Jackie, Wind
Used Ghost Votes: Tetra (me)

I wanted to make this longer, basically just. compile a bunch of like, statements, but I lost energy rapidly.

Hoping someone else can fill in blanks.

Spoiler: Dark Timeline

I am not really entertaining this or advocating this, just providing this elaboration since it sounds like we have someone new joining?

Basically, if somehow Wind was poisoned, this upends several fundamental assumptions about the game.

Wind's clue as Chef was that there are no pairs of scum seated next to each other.

Wind shot the Virgin on Day 1 which confirms Wind is neither Drunk nor Scum.

However if Wind was poisoned this means there could be One scum pair.

It would mean that something like Perse/Phan or Aer/Rui or Chibi/Jackie could be true, and one or all inforoles are full of lies. But this is such a dark chaotic thing and requires quite a lot of shenanigans so. Someone else can unpack this if it needs explanation for the newcomer.

I'll be busy tomorrow for some of memorial day but ehg. Night!

 

[Shiny Phantump]

a Minion Horse should only exist as a collaborator to a Demon Elegym, not a Demon Maddie.

[[uhh disregards this subsentence it's absolute nonsense, a Minion Horse is more likely in either evil pairing. I'd later realize this— I started this post incorrectly assuming I'd come to a different conclusion before I wrote out the tables and changed my answer... I wrote that sentence in an earlier draft with a logical error that I corrected in the process of writing up the tables and conclusion. I failed to notice and correct it before posting.]]