Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Persephone]

"You all talk a lot for people with nothing much new to talk about. But, fine, I can haul myself out again and share my thoughts and defenses with the world.

Yes, I have been falsely read a few times. This could be because of poisoning, false positives, or, perhaps, that the Elgyem is lying~~~

In hindsight, I should have saved my slayer shot for right about now. Even if I was getting poisoned, at least that would save our info roles. But I'd just been red-checked twice and I was getting a lil nervous that this was quite literally a do-or-die moment. My thoughts on Rui, the horses, and Malacahi are that they're playing about how they should with that role (claim) whether or not they're scum. I guess I can talk a little more about what last night says about the game?

CLAIMS

Morgan reads Glastrier and Elgyem. One is the demon.

Elgyem reads that one of Hareta or I is scum.

Glastrier reads that Malachai was the ravenkeeper.

We have every reason to believe that Rocky and Hareta are town.

So, some possibilities (please note that when I say "poisoned," it could also include drunk, which I had not considered until I was deep in the list):

1) No one is poisoned, no one is lying, no false positives: This cannot be true since one of Elgyem or Glastrier would have to be scum and, therefore, lying.

2) No one is poisoned, no one is lying, Morgan hit a false positive: I would be scum. I would be the only scum left.

3) Morgan was poisoned, no one is lying: I would be scum. I would be the only scum left.

4) Elgyem was poisoned, no one is lying: This is impossible. There would be no scum left.

5) Spectrier was poisoned, no one is lying: I would be scum, I would be the only scum left.

6) Morgan is lying, no one was poisoned: I guess Morgan and I would have to simultaneously be scum? This seems unlikely since it would require Watt to have been poisoned N0. I am discounting this, even if it is technically possible.

7) Elgyem is lying, no one was poisoned: Elgyem is scum, they are the only scum left.

8) Spectrier is lying, no one was poisoned: ...why tho? Confirming Malachai as scum would have been much easier for shoring up their defense. Oh, and I guess under this scenario Chibi and I would be scum.

9) Spectrier was poisoned, Elgyem and Morgan are both lying: Uh... then I guess Malachai, Elgyem, Morgan are our scum team? This is technically possible, but I'm going to dismiss it as a little implausible.

10) Morgan was poisoned, Elgyem and Spectrier are both lying: Well, then we have our scum team. Probably with Drake.

11) Elgyem was poisoned, Morgan and Spectrier are lying: Morgan / Spectrier scum team, probably with Drake.

12) Elgyem was poisoned, Spectrier is lying: Spectrier is scum, potentially alongside Morgan.

13) Elgyem was poisoned, Morgan is lying: Morgan is the only scum.

14) Morgan was poisoned, Elgyem is lying: Uhhh. I guess this is Elgyem as the only scum? It would be weird to consistently frame me if we were scumbuddies.

15) Morgan was poisoned, Spectrier is lying: Spectrier and I are scum.

16) Spectrier was poisoned, Morgan is lying: Morgan is the sole remaining scum.

17) Spectrier was poisoned, Elgyem is lying: Elgyem is the only remaining scum.



[[Yeah I kind of confused myself. I do find Chibi's play to be way too willing to die for this time of the game for someone who's actually innocent. I know as scum I've feigned a willingness to die to get heat off of me. Which does mean it's also kind of too dumb of a play for scum!Chibi to make? I'm frankly more confident Malachai was scum than Rui, so I think, positionally speaking, my vote will be for Elgyem, again.]]

 

[Persephone]

"Oh, and my gut is telling me that the actual scenario is that the horses were poisoned, the Elgyem is lying, and they're the only scum left."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

DRAKE

UNLIKELY? - Drake is #1 Spectrier hater, seems unwise to bus so hard as scum buddies to leave only 1 scum alive afterward. Could imply Spectrier lied about Drake's scum role, and Scarlet Woman is still in play to not be worried about bussing 1/2 remaining scum roles and are confident we'll never find the last scum player.

"Eh. I don't feel the need to put too much stock in that. Horsie wouldn't wanna tie themself to the rat's sinking ship. Rat's gotta act appropriately pissed about being flipped evil in turn or they've got no reason to exist. Evils'll bicker with each other on the regular to create distance. I'll give him this, though, if they are on the same team he's pretty damn committed to the bit~"

"Oh, and my gut is telling me that the actual scenario is that the horses were poisoned, the Elgyem is lying, and they're the only scum left."

"Huh? Who's doing the poisoning in this case? Can't be Mal or the Horsie would've flipped 'em once they died. Can't be the rat, or Horsie would've been able to flip 'em once they died. Same problem for Rui. A poisoner can't hide a poisoner's death, and the poisoner hasn't flipped yet. That's why they're now calling themselves drunk, but that's... a bit of a reach."

Morgan shrugged. She was lucky she didn't have actual flesh shoulders to tire out, felt like she was doing that a lot. "It's not impossible for 'em to be drunk, but in that case I feel like we gotta start calling... Dunno, a Rui, Mal, Elegym scumteam? Feels weird to me. Breaks the Baker rule and requires two of them come swinging out the gate lying through their teeth for no clear reason. Would be pretty damn weird."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Wait, but you can fake this role?

[[Yeah, I said you can fake it. It's possible Madeline faked it. You can just say you're Slaying and then nothing will happen. What I was getting at is that either Madeline is scum and Morgan isn't, or Morgan is a minion and Madeline is town, or maybe they're both town, but they're probably not scumbuddies.]]

scribbled over diagrams

[[this is pretty sick, nice work]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

they're now calling themselves drunk

[[Phrasing correction: possibly drunk, my intended point being that they're not speculating that they're poisoned by a poisoner that'd almost certainly be dead due to that being logically impossible.]]

 

[Persephone]

"Oh. Right. The missing poison. Spectrier's poison. The poison meant for Spectrier. Right... Uh..."

[[Huh. That's... quite the conundrum, then. I guess I can strike 3, 4, 5, 13, 14, 16, and 17 as possible scenarios. 1 was already impossible and 6 is improbable. So, let's look at the remaining possibilities.

2) I am the only scum left.

7) Elgyem is the only scum left.

8) Horses and I are the only scum left.

9) Morgan and Elgyem are the only scum left.

10) Elgyem and Spectrier are the only scum left.

11) Morgan and Spectrier are the only scum left.

I am not scum. I cannot prove this, but it does narrow my thinking to possibilities 7, 9, 10, and 11.

Seven, if true, would mean that Malachai and Chibi are not scum. I guess Rui could be scum, but then Watt would have been poisoned or drunk. It's possible, but I'm not liking the odds.

So... nine, ten, and eleven. I think Morgan's play is too convoluted to be realistically scum. So... Elgyem and Spectrier. But given that there's a world where Elgyem is our only remaining scum and not one where Spectrier is, my vote is still on Elgyem.]]