Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

Rocky continued scribbling in the dirt, only to stop with a sudden screech, tapping fervently at his diagrams.

"Rocky worried we are in EoL right now. Is true one Bad Guy must be currently eliminated. But we don't know if more than one is out."

"If two Bad Guys still in game, and we vote out Good player tonight, nothing stopping Bad Guys from getting rid of another Good Guy in the night, then next day starts with 2 Good Guys and 2 Bad Guys, and in that case, Bad Guys win."

"If we not one hundred percent sure Spectrier is Bad guy, we all die! Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad--"

[[With 6 players remaining still alive, if we mislynch today, scum kills another in the night, and we start D5 with 2 Town and 2 Scum and that's an automatic win for Scum since ghost votes don't count.]]

 

[windskull]

-Chibi/Phant(Phant is not the demon)
-Chibi/Aer
-Chibi/Persephone
-Aer/Persephone
-Aer/Phant(Phant is not the demon)

[[Looking at this again. Short of hardcore bussing, I don't think Aer/Persephone is a likely pairing based on the D2 gameplay. Because of that, the list is really more like...
-Chibi/Phant (Phant is not the demon)
-Chibi/Aer
-Chibi/Persephone
-Aer/Phant(Phant is not the demon)

Or I was poisoned, then you could put Phant/Persephone on the table but I don't think that's reasonable based on the same reasons I don't think Aer/persephone is.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

"If we not one hundred percent sure Spectrier is Bad guy, we all die! Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad--"

"Okay, yeah, that's why I'm voting for them. I mean, what possible two-person evil team do you see that doesn't include them? They're all pretty far-fetched. The only one I can see is Maddie and Elegym, which'd be bizarre given the claimed redcheck. If you called it as Elegym and I then you have no fucking info roles and we went crazy hard pushing for Maddie in a bizarre way just to back down when we could've forced the miselim though."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

forced the miselim though

[[*through]]

Morgan tried her best to lock eyes with Rocky, although she wasn't sure if those really were eyes on the front of his head. "I'm serious here. I've humoured your complex about the horse so far because you don't seem to be plausibly evil. But if you really want to try to pull our votes off the horse... Well, I won't listen either way, but you should at least tell everyone else which other scumteam you're worried we're not covering for, and which player on it is even more likely to be evil than the horse. Take the shot. Won't even hurt my feelings if you include me."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[Even Chibi's posting isn't positing that we're at Elim or Lose right now if they're town. I don't think this is a concern I can understand, sorry.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

With 6 players remaining still alive, if we mislynch today, scum kills another in the night, and we start D5 with 2 Town and 2 Scum and that's an automatic win for Scum since ghost votes don't count.]]

[[This much we agree on!

Been saying this, this is what I was trying to prevent yesterday lol

Cannot afford a mislynch]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

Yes we ARE of course you're saying this

"If you believe that we are at ELO, and you actually believe I am the demon, then you should not be taking issue with my pact!"

[[Seriously, it doesn't even make sense to say that me saying we're not at ELO is some kind of ploy because I believe we have eliminated two scum, and I'm offering to be eliminated to prove I'm not the demon. So unless you think the remaining scumteam is Morgan/Elgyem or Madeline/Elgyem (??????) then you should be fine with this.]]

The self-vote from Chibi is also really baffling. Whyyyyy do that if we're so close to EoL? We have no way to know if there's one or two scum left, and if it's two, well, voting yourself out if you're town doesn't seem like the smartest play. But someone can correct me if that assumption is wrong.

"If two Bad Guys still in game, and we vote out Good player tonight, nothing stopping Bad Guys from getting rid of another Good Guy in the night, then next day starts with 2 Good Guys and 2 Bad Guys, and in that case, Bad Guys win."

"If we not one hundred percent sure Spectrier is Bad guy, we all die! Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad--"

[[Likewise, the reason I was comfortable making that offer is (1) to show I fully intended to keep my word from yesterday, (2) because I know that the only way we'd lose is if the remaining scum were either Morgan/Elgyem or Madeline/Elgyem (I do not believe either is feasible), and (3) because it would prove I'm not the demon. There are now two separate inspections on me and I would really like to just prove I'm not the demon the only way I can so that we can move on from it, otherwise we're going to have to go through this exact same thing again tomorrow, which sounds exhausting.]]

[[And before tetra says something like "oh well obviously chibi is poisoner then" I can't poison anyone if I'm dead! I'm pretty sure poison has already been removed from play, but self-eliminating means no one else has to be paranoid about it either. It just drastically reduces the possibility space and makes the inforoles guaranteed reliable, and if I don't do it, then everyone's just going to keep debating about me forever. @_@]]

[[Also my ability is garbage and I might be salty about it.]]

"Ah, it appears one of our number has been altered," he purred, bemusedly. "Welcome, Herdier. Are you already familiar with the rules?"

Glastrier glanced at the Herdier with mild interest. "Ah, a newcomer. You're in luck--the seat you have taken is that of an innocent."

[[In any case, I am pretty damn sure I just figured out what the poison sequence was, I need to type it up and make sure I didn't overlook anything obvious, but I realized one of the assumptions previously made about N0 was never actually confirmed.]]

 

[windskull]

[[And before tetra says something like "oh well obviously chibi is poisoner then" I can't poison anyone if I'm dead! I'm pretty sure poison has already been removed from play, but self-eliminating means no one else has to be paranoid about it either. It just drastically reduces the possibility space and makes the inforoles guaranteed reliable, and if I don't do it, then everyone's just going to keep debating about me forever. @_@]]

[[If that's the case, how do we explain the differences between Aer's result last night and the night before? I'm trying to wrap my head around that. Because for that to work one of the following scenarios would have to take place, right?
1. Aer is lying - in which case we should be gunning for them as the most suspicious
2. Aer was poisoned N1 and N3 - The poisoner is still alive, and perhaps poisoned you on N2, if you are town
3. Aer was poisoned N2 - In this case, for the poisoner to be dead, the poisoner would have to be Jackie, which would mean YOU would have to be Drunk and your "undertaker" reads on Rui and Jackie had to be insanely unlucky (Reading Rui as drunk when you are, reading Jackie as exactly what their fake claim is). And if this is the case, we should be concerned about Demon Persephone again.
4. Aer is drunk. Then you would have to be poisoned N1 or lying because Rui wouldn't be drunk, and would be either poisoned or lying.

I'm curious what your thoughts on what the poison sequence is and who you think the poisoner is in this situation. But as it stands, I'm inclined to believe they're still around. ]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

"I believe I have discovered the sequence of poisoning. Pay attention!"

[[Okay, I think I've got the solve. So, I was kicking around the thought that Rui was poisoned, and that's how her intel was wrong without being the drunk, except for the fact that on a previous day, Morgan had been assuming she was poisoned N0. So I ran through the nights assuming she wasn't poisoned N0:

N0
Rui: One of Hareta and Watt is the Scarlet Woman (poisoned)
Elgyem: Both Rui and Hareta registered as Good.
Morgan: One of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.

N1
Elgyem: One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil.
Morgan: Neither Rocky nor Madeline registered as Demon. (poison explains the discrepancy with N0?)

N2
Elgyem: Both Madeline and Hareta registered as Good (poison explains the discrepancy with N1?)
Morgan: Neither Drake nor Spectrier registered as Demon.

N3
Elgyem: One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil.
Morgan: One of Elgyem and Spectrier registered as Demon. (see below)

The big thing that jumps out at me is that in the scenario where Morgan's N1 result was accurate and Elgyem is lying, then the scumteam would have had to just not used their poison N1. (Or else they aimed at someone else and missed???) I really don't find that likely at all, and that's why I think Morgan was poisoned N1.

There's also a discrepancy in that there's a separate demon ping on both Madeline and Elgyem that poison doesn't account for. Unless one of them is the false positive. There was some talk earlier that Watt was the false positive, but I'm not seeing any reason he has to be. I am now pretty damn sure one of them is the false positive and one of them is the demon, which means I need to go back and read through everything from both of them because I am not resting on my previous reads of them, not when it would put us into a 50/50 between winning and losing. (I'd be in favor of eliminating both of them back-to-back, except for the part where we'd just arrive back at everyone debating over me for a third day in a row. Please no.)]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[Hey hold on a sec. Given that drunk, as I understand it, would have gotten a random result... If Chibi was drunk/poisoned, that would be a 1/22 (or 1/21 given their own presumed undertaker role?) chance that they'd read Jakie as the ravenkeeper role, right??? It's not impossible, but it is improbable.

"No. It is not random information. It is misleading information."

[[From what I can tell, the info will be misleading in such a way that will make it non-obvious whether or not it's wrong. If I'd gotten a result like, I dunno, Soldier, then it'd be immediately obvious it was wrong, so it wouldn't be very misleading. This is also why telling the drunk that someone else was the drunk is so powerful.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[That is indeed how it usually works, although I wrote up and deleted something about recalling someone saying it was randomized when I couldn't source the quote, so I wonder where both Wind and I got that impression... Worth asking Inke about it probably? At worst she can't answer which'd be fair enough.]]

 

[Inkedust]

[[That is indeed how it usually works, although I wrote up and deleted something about recalling someone saying it was randomized when I couldn't source the quote, so I wonder where both Wind and I got that impression... Worth asking Inke about it probably? At worst she can't answer which'd be fair enough.]]

Are you asking now?

Edit: Whoops, that's way vaguer than I'd intended to cone off as. Just trying to clarify whether you're asking me this publicly or not.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[Yeah sure why not]]

 

[Inkedust]

While I cannot get into exact specifics of how I may handle Drunk/Poison, I consider random and misleading one and the same.