[COMPLETE] THE MADEMOISELLE'S BANQUET (December Mafia)—GAME THREAD

[Sinderella]

And again, Seren on their own suggested a Town Roleblocker stopping them, not a mafia one (which makes Seren very likely to be Mafia and not town).

[[OH you know, true. Alright, fair point. I can wait to see how Seren ends up flipping then.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Agreed with Pano’s points so far. However, Negrek made a good point here:

There's a town explanation here, but if this is true you've been sitting on an awful lot of information that could have been a big help in previous days.

Still can’t get over the fact that Pano sat on all this vital info for so long. If Seren flips innocent, I am gunning for Pano and Minty HARD the next day. Their stories line up which could mean either they really are town, or they’re a diabolical galaxy-brained scum team and if they’re the latter, I’m going to be hugely impressed. I will congratulate them and then shove them down a laundry chute out of spite.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[Agreed with Pano’s points so far. However, Negrek made a good point here:



Still can’t get over the fact that Pano sat on all this vital info for so long. If Seren flips innocent, I am gunning for Pano and Minty HARD the next day. Their stories line up which could mean either they really are town, or they’re a diabolical galaxy-brained scum team and if they’re the latter, I’m going to be hugely impressed. I will congratulate them and then shove them down a laundry chute out of spite.]]

[[I have no defense to Negrek's point other than self-preservation and paranoia. My worry was that coming out with this information too early would mean there wasn't enough to substantiate my claims. Also, keeping the fact that I was an information role secret while there was a target-swapping power on the loose meant for every claim Jackie couldn't confirm, I potentially could. I 100% admit I let Jackie take the fall in order to keep my information safe.

That being said, I now realize another point about Negrek/windskull. How did Mafia know to swap Jackie when she only soft claimed the role? Do we think that Mafia's other power is potentially Rolecop? Otherwise, windskull hinted in their posts that they knew Jackie was cop. If wind figured that out from the softclaim, they could tell their scum teammate to target Jackie and get a false Guilty reading on Tetra (especially given how that day played out with the sus flying around between Tetra, Jackie, and Wind) and let Jackie and Tetra dig their own graves fighting over the misinformation.

Yes, I know I kept quiet about Tetra's innocence, not corroborating her Motivator claim until today. I would have spoken up earlier if the vote had swung Tetra's way, but it didn't. At that point, keeping quiet and getting two untampered tracks that night was the most important play, in my mind.

Does that make me a jerk? Probably. Was that the only way I could see that we might be able to figure this out? Yup.

If Seren does flip innocent, I don't blame you for going for my head. At that point I can say I would honestly have no clue what was going on and would not be an asset to the Town any more. If this was all a mistake, it's my mistake, and I will take the fall for it.]]

 

[Sinderella]

Still can’t get over the fact that Pano sat on all this vital info for so long. If Seren flips innocent, I am gunning for Pano and Minty HARD the next day. Their stories line up which could mean either they really are town, or they’re a diabolical galaxy-brained scum team and if they’re the latter, I’m going to be hugely impressed. I will congratulate them and then shove them down a laundry chute out of spite.]]

[[With you on this. I am willing to wait for Seren’s flip to haul for Minty because Seren’s been on the top of my list from the getgo, but if we’re wrong my eyes are going to Minty and Pano—I still cannot poke holes in their logic but there’s so many things not adding up with them. Smoke blowy posts, and sitting on that info. I guess now I UNDERSTAND the point of the smoke-blowy posts but considering how at each other’s throats we all were, and how UNSURE we all were on top of it, it would have saved so much time. So. I’m torn, but I have my line of sight.]]

 

[Sinderella]

How did Mafia know to swap Jackie when she only soft claimed the role? Do we think that Mafia's other power is potentially Rolecop?

[[I mean, that’s an option, but I couldn also sooner believe they did it to take a chance? A softclaim was probably better than nothing for them.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

I 100% admit I let Jackie take the fall in order to keep my information safe.

[[Mmm considering Jackie was the cop, this does not reflect well on you as a town player.]]

How did Mafia know to swap Jackie when she only soft claimed the role?

[[My guess is they didn’t know for certain and simply chose to swap Jackie because they’re a good player and always intimidating to scum.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[heck, now I'm back on my end-game paranoia train... heck someone talk some sense into me.

What's to stop the last killer from just choosing to not kill tonight to mess up our plan?? No kill and double block on Negrek means it's a Negrek vote the next day. If (and this is a big if) Negrek flips innocent, then what?

Also if (and this is an even bigger if) Seren flips innocent, what does that mean for the night? There'd still be two killers on the loose, so blocking Negrek means nothing. A kill will still happen...

At that point, do we have a second best suspect? I'm at a loss because everyone's stories line up *except* for Negrek and Seren.

- Tetra's power is proven per my usage and Minty's claim. If that 2x power is on the Mafia side, I'll eat a hat.

- Everything in Yellow's story lines up: hard to describe role, being good for town if she can use it twice in a night, being able to vouch for Free *and* trying to stop the kill on Jackie last night. Again, if she's not town, damn girl you did it to us again, gg.

- Minty's story as Town Roleblocker, while wild, is corroborated by my result being blocked the night they claimed to have blocked me. Also Seren suggesting it was a Town Roleblock before Minty claimed, while everyone else thought the Roleblocker was scum

- Sind, boy oh boy, girl if you've been fooling us this whole time, gg, you deserve it.

That leaves me, (which I know my own alignment), Negrek, and Seren.

- Negrek's in a tough spot having to come into this game cold and make heads or tails of their own play as well as everyone else's. That's craziness. But wind's play thus far has offered nothing about their own role, utility to town, or strong reads toward any player. Tracking wind/Negrek to Jackie last night is damning evidence, especially considering the way the rest of the group's powers and claims do not suggest they could be scum.

- Seren, again, has played similarly to wind, offering a few hints (one of which made no sense to me: how can a power role in Town's hands in which the player visits someone else during the night NOT be useful to be used twice? Of course, they didn't know I had seen them traveling around at night, probably hoping to suggest a passive-self role with that hint, like a soft OSBP claim) and not strongly suspecting any players, at least not enough to cast leading votes. The suggestion of a Town Roleblocker is the nail in the proverbial coffin for me, considering up to that point, the rest of the group considered Roleblocking a Mafia-useful power, not a Town one.

Again, I honestly can't see any way for these two to be the remaining two scum, and if any of the above town reads are actually scum, legitimately gg, you've fooled us all.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[Mmm considering Jackie was the cop, this does not reflect well on you as a town player.]]



[[My guess is they didn’t know for certain and simply chose to swap Jackie because they’re a good player and always intimidating to scum.]]

[[Like I said, I played it like a jerk. From where I sat, with the reveal that Jackie's cop reads could be tampered with, me as a stealth info gathering role was as good as a cop for town. Bad look? Yeah, probably. If what I've done is the Town's undoing, then this game's loss is on my head, and I accept the blame there 100%]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Mmm considering Jackie was the cop, this does not reflect well on you as a town player.]]

[[True but... Jackie would be dead anyway. Clearly they figured out they were cop by our actions. I can understand why Pano did what they did, theoretically, given how wierd this game is....

We'll see what Seren says...]]

 

[Flyg0n]

That being said, I now realize another point about Negrek/windskull. How did Mafia know to swap Jackie when she only soft claimed the role? Do we think that Mafia's other power is potentially Rolecop? Otherwise, windskull hinted in their posts that they knew Jackie was cop. If wind figured that out from the softclaim, they could tell their scum teammate to target Jackie and get a false Guilty reading on Tetra (especially given how that day played out with the sus flying around between Tetra, Jackie, and Wind) and let Jackie and Tetra dig their own graves fighting over the misinformation.

[[Wind basically said they knew from the get go. Jackie thought them staying quiet about this made them seem towny but I don't think so, scum has just as much reason to pretend to stay silent, especially if they could pin the town against each other.

As for the plan, well if Mafia abstains we still force their hand. They can try to kill tonight or they can abstain but not killing is still good for town.

But if someone has other reasonable suggestions for how to arrange the roles, I'm open to suggestions]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[An alternative plan I guess could be Pano following Yellow? It's hard for me to put into words why this is helpful but like, its a good way to see if anyone is lying.

Like if Pano follows yellow then we can, one wya or another, confirm that both are telling the truth about powers and actions if everything lines up?

Idk. ]]

 

[Negrek]

That being said, I now realize another point about Negrek/windskull. How did Mafia know to swap Jackie when she only soft claimed the role? Do we think that Mafia's other power is potentially Rolecop? Otherwise, windskull hinted in their posts that they knew Jackie was cop. If wind figured that out from the softclaim, they could tell their scum teammate to target Jackie and get a false Guilty reading on Tetra (especially given how that day played out with the sus flying around between Tetra, Jackie, and Wind) and let Jackie and Tetra dig their own graves fighting over the misinformation.

This is not how the redirection would have needed to work. Bus driver swaps two players for the purpose of night actions that target them. This means that Tetra was the one swapped with a Mafia player N1, not Jackie[/b], in order for that to have worked. Deflector works by bouncing all night actions aimed at one player to another. This means that actions aimed at Tetra were bounced to a Mafia player in order for that to have worked. In both cases, Tetra would have to be the target, not Jackie.

...which is pretty fucking weird, I'll admit. Why would the mafia target Tetra there? They either thought she was likely to be inspected, or thought one of their own was likely to be inspected and wanted to use her as a shield. In my experience, mafia bus drivers usually use their powers to remove the guards from people they want to kill, not throw shade--the former is much more consistently useful. It was a very risky play, but apparently it worked out. I started out today fully expecting to be voting Tetra because of how zany that all was, but with her role confirmed multiple times over, I don't really have a choice but to throw Occam's razor out the window in this case.

I am not very hot on any plan that requires Minty to confirm roles tomorrow night, because in the case that Minty's mafia, they could potentially get two kills tonight. That means that if Seren is a mislynch and Minty is mafia, the mafia has the potential to just win tonight. Seren's a soft lynch target, so it wouldn't be hard to get a train going. To me, figuring out whether or not Minty is mafia is going to be the critical thing, because if they are, we are potentially in a lynch or lose situation.

Right now my suspects are Sind, Seren, Pano, and Minty. I feel like I have a good enough grasp on Seren and Pano for now. I'm going to be rereading Sind and Minty, then looking at potential mafia pairs out of those four and what seems most plausible.

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I eagerly await a reasonable explanation of Mafia!Minty. It doesn't add up to me, absed on many factors

Minty roleblocked Pano, Pano had randomly brought up possibility of a roleblocker seemingly out of the blue, which they would do if they had gotten roleblocked. Unless Pano and Minty are the scum pair, which is insane, it doesn't all add up properly.

It would be a wild twisty to think of a world where Minty is scum because my power doesn't even work on mafia's nightkill, from what I understand, so we have nothing to fear.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I do think we need to decide on conditional actions though

Like If Seren flips scum, we do X

and If Seren flips innocent, we do Y]]

 

[Negrek]

[[I eagerly await a reasonable explanation of Mafia!Minty. It doesn't add up to me, absed on many factors

Minty roleblocked Pano, Pano had randomly brought up possibility of a roleblocker seemingly out of the blue, which they would do if they had gotten roleblocked. Unless Pano and Minty are the scum pair, which is insane, it doesn't all add up properly.

It would be a wild twisty to think of a world where Minty is scum because my power doesn't even work on mafia's nightkill, from what I understand, so we have nothing to fear.]]

[[

You said you were worried about the potential for a double kill back here. Did something happen that made you change your mind on whether it's possible and I missed it?

I agree, we need to figure out what we do depending on the results of the lynch tonight. Gonna do that after I've done some reading and heard Seren's claim.

]]

 

[Negrek]

[[

Okay, reviewed Sind. I do see what she meant about doing more analysis earlier in the game, lol. I had mostly been remembering her wrap-up note posts, such as this one, which were great summaries (and much appreciated!) but didn't contain much analysis. But she followed up with much more solve-y posts like this one and this one.

Initially she seemed most suspect of Tetra and Jackie, but was put off by the fact that they were attacking each other, and it didn't seem as though both could be mafia. She started calling for more from Seren and Shini shortly after the Jackie/Tetra debacle of Day 1, here. This was after HelloYellow had started looking for claims from them here. She remained sus of Seren, Shini, Wind, and Pano as of this post, which is I think the last I can find for that Day addressing the topic. She ultimately cast no vote, and I would not be surprised if the awful time of the extension vote had something to do with that. She wasn't one of the most ardent members of the Shini bandwagon, and ultimately didn't vote for him, but she certainly didn't do much in the way of defending. Could very easily be town, could possibly be mafia resigned to bussing but hopeful enough to not literally vote her teammate. But although she's been a bit quieter today, I think she did put in plenty of work yesterday. Nothing that absolutely clears her in my mind, but I feel better after reviewing her.

Also, her RP has always been on point, so good show there regardless of alignment. Made it more fun to go back over old posts!

]]

 

[Flyg0n]

You said you were worried about the potential for a double kill back here. Did something happen that made you change your mind on whether it's possible and I missed it?

[[A couple stuff, yes. One, someone alluded to that role-blocking would only work if the person that night as the one with the nightkill, and two, when I asked inke about motivating scum, they implied that if I motivated someone with a killing role, then it would be doubled.

Rereviewing what Minty said leads me to believe that they had no reason to lie, and even if they did there is literally nothing I can do about it now. They're already boosted.

And I won't vote for them tbh bc they still feel town enough to me with how they described when they blocked, the order of everything, and so on. Now its possible they're scum roleblocker, but either way unless strong info comes to light I'm reluctant to vote them, as of now.

However, even if they are scum roleblocker and have factional kill, under the plan I suggested if they kill twice they're outed. The plan forces mafias hand. Two kills means Scum!Minty. So they'd be forced to waste it and kill once, or not at all.

The idea of the plan isn't even just about trying to sus out scum, but forcing scum into a position thats hard to lie about, by creating layered mechnical confirmations.]]

 

[Negrek]

when I asked inke about motivating scum, they implied that if I motivated someone with a killing role, then it would be doubled.

[[

Sorry, I'm having trouble parsing this. Are you saying that if you targeted someone with a killing role, they would have double power, a strong shot like HelloYellow suggested?

]]

 

[Negrek]

[[

Looking at Minty. Didn't do much Day 1; mostly went along with what other people were saying and ultimately ended up abstaining. That was... honestly my impression for the second day, too. They mostly seemed to be following other players' leads and seemed to end up on the Shini wagon less out of conviction than out of inertia. They were doing more here, though, posting readlists and going more into analysis. Just not really taking it to the next step and trying to move the discussion along with that info. But they are a newbie and still learning the ropes, so confidence is not really expected! Just doesn't give me much to work with.

Voting an extension on themselves was a bold play, and probably their most notable action before today. Extending the day could potentially have given Mafia time to get their act together and move the vote of Shini; could have been an attempt to give Shini more time to talk and move suspicion off themselves; but clearly neither of those happened. All in all this reads Town to me.

They were generally bolder, and much more helpful, today. I like that they spoke up right away and generally . This would have to be either a careful mafia plan if it wasn't just general helpfulness. I wish they'd played more like this earlier--I think it would have made it easier for me to go, "Definitely town, nothing to worry about here!" As it stands, I'm coming away from this review liking them the best out of the four people who I think could be Mafia at this point. Not liking them well enough to potentially bet the entire game on them not being mafia. But if Tetra's power doesn't work on them, maybe that's irrelevant? Sorry, Tetra, I don't think I understand how you believe your power would interact with kills/why you think that?

Also, Minty did make the best post in the game.

((I guess you could say it was Free real estate?))

So hats off. :P

So my current read on my four suspects is: Pano and Seren the most outright suspicious; those are the two who've made actively weird plays, IMO. Pano witholding information, stuff like the massclaim back towards the beginning, makes me leery. But I'll admit I could be grumpy because she keeps trying to throw shade on me! On the other hand, Seren's been probably the lowest-key and least-helpful player to this point, and also the only one to have defended a known mafia. Not a good look. I will state that I don't think too much of his implication that the roleblocker was likely town; obviously a lot of people's thoughts go right to mafia when it comes to roleblockers, but they've been both alignments in games here, so the assumption that this one is town strikes me as weird, not damning.

Sind and Minty have both managed to steer clear of major trouble and done some useful analysis, but didn't do a lot to move things forward and didn't press hard on people (before today, in Minty's case). It's an easy place for a Mafia player to be. It's an easy place for a Town player to be. But given that I don't see Pano and Seren on the same team, I think one of them has to be Mafia. Currently liking Minty a little more than Sind. In a normal world I'd be 100% Seren/Pano for mafia, but I just can't see that pairing... so one of the other two must be mafia as well. Unless I'm on completely the wrong planet and, like, Yellow is involved or something.

]]

 

[Sinderella]

She ultimately cast no vote, and I would not be surprised if the awful time of the extension vote had something to do with that. She wasn't one of the most ardent members of the Shini bandwagon, and ultimately didn't vote for him, but she certainly didn't do much in the way of defending.

[[So yeah, I actually had every intention to vote Shini but uh, EOD was like 5am my time and…I forgot to set an alarm wasn’t waking up for that. I was side-eyeing the shit out of Shini internally but I think I mentioned not wanting to drill the fuck out of them because they were new, so I definitely kept to myself on that front and stuck to just throwing light sus.

Also, her RP has always been on point, so good show there regardless of alignment. Made it more fun to go back over old posts!

Lmfao thanks for that tho!

but didn't do a lot to move things forward and didn't press hard on people (before today, in Minty's case).

So I guess I can defend myself here—I’m indecisive and my eyes have been on Shini and Seren, and somewhat Pano, literally this whole game. I’ve been resigned to pressing the fuck out of them because 1.) Shini and Seren both newer players so I was giving them the benefit of the doubt and 2.) I kinda got shit last game for drilling too hard and was trying to hold off being abrasive again. I also cannot fucking read Pano to save my goddamn life—I think every game I’ve played with her I’ve read her sus only to have her flip town, so I never know what to do with her. This game kinda brings that to a head—motions scream mafia but explanations read Town to me.

My poking and prodding has been very lowkey, a lot more analysis based this game. I was admittedly trying to wait out revealing my role to see if I got shot in the night, as OSBP, but that hasn’t happened, so heh. Compared to everyone else I’m relatively useless in terms of roles, so I’m not sure what I could have done to propel the game forward except reveal my role first, so again, just stuck to providing (I hope) useful analysis and making it easier for Town to read posts. Because I’m town, I swear to fucking gods 🥲

Also, been lower key today mostly because I’ve been at a party, brain’s fried, and I don’t really have much to offer. Again again, my role is useless here for info gathering. I’m OSBP, I sit and wait to get a cap popped in my ass. There’s no way for me to collect info unless people reveal and I go back and analyze posts, which I haven’t been able to do today like I was able to do the previous days. Such is life.

Anyway, hope this clears some thingy things.]]