[COMPLETE] THE MADEMOISELLE'S BANQUET (December Mafia)—GAME THREAD

[MintyMimix]

[[I should clarify - note hard vote necessairly, a 'who would you vote on'

On that note - @MintyMimix Asking casually, who would you suggest we vote? What are your thoughts there?]]

((I'll be honest: I had so little idea of who to vote for that an extension was the only thing I had in mind, but I also wanted to do it in a way that would guarantee the extension would happen without it seeming too suspicious. I am so, so relieved that Inke was okay to my bullshit idea haha. I was half-expecting a "Nice try, but that's against the spirit of the idea" and end up getting the boot, so I was sweating bullets up until Inke posted #446.))

((So since I don't have any hard votes, I'm going to rate everyone on a scale of -5 to +5, where +5 is "if you are actually Mafia, I will yell because I was so sure you were town", and -5 is "if you are actually Town, we've been masterfully manipulated".))

Character	Rating / Reason
Loïc	+3: Details, details, details! So much detail in #182 While this does not absolve her of suspicion persay, it's an approach that is for certainly helpful to Town. Everything logically follows that she should be good, but there's something in the back of my head itching at me. I will say this: I don't think Pano/Sind are a pair, because of the closeness of #82/#83/#84 and #273/#274's near simultaneous timing reacting to The Bombshell, and #477.
Diamond	0: #431 Raises reasonable points regarding possible unusual TP focus and cast doubt on the Bus Driver theory due to its convenience. While I admit that it is possible to be a gambit, I really do not peg Tetra to be that kind of extremely emotionally manipulative person to have the reaction that she did in #256 - #270. Literally the only reason for a suspicion point for me; everything else is pretty neutral-leaning. Would not vote off Seren first because of this.
Anti-Bravoman	-1*: I wavered so hard between -1 and +1, but I'm settling on -1. This -1 can quickly flip to a +1 because of the good plays going here, but it will be considered a -3 if these conditions are not both met by EoD: following up on the promise for analysis (#422), and retracting the vote on me now that we have the extension (#426). [Condition #2 met: #480] Now, the reason for me considering +1 comes from performing the first hard pressure with a fair reason and retraction (#54 , #66, #85) with a fair reason when pointed out the contradiction of the action (#134), and weaving good play advice within it. They also had very good reads on Free and Jackie (#151, #177, #189) and suitable pressure throughout (#177). However, my -1 comes from two points: (1) How did they come across the information that they felt confident, outside of a "hunch"? Hoping the elaborations can help clear the air. (2) Tetra and Jackie have been the only named suspects, with Tetra still named post-Bombshell (#313). It's not an indicator of tunneling, since they've been busy and we all suspected those two early on, just something I'm considering.
Steven Stone	?: ((Let me get back to you on this one. I need to do Pano and Yellow post-by-post personal analysis before giving a read. I really want to get this post in first to show my activity / not get ninja'd.))
Hana	+4: Either you're really, really good at faking reactions, or #261 - #270 were real. Even if your behavior has been suspect before, I'm betting on your innocence given how real that was, and how that more aggressive posting pasting has aligned with your behavior throughout the game in terms of timing consistently, even if the claims themselves may not always be.
Litno	0: I'm willing to look the other way and say they're a victim of circumstance and general lack of clarity in this game, but I'm also not opposed to try to verify on vote if we have no other suspects. It fucking hurts me to say that after getting a positive read from them and came to a general understanding, but it also as others have stated is a "safe" bet. I'm sorry.
Salem Weir	+5: Look, what hasn't already been said? Claiming cop at the time that she did would be a baffling scum move, and all reasons given for past actions track very well. If there anyone I am certain of Town, it's Jackie.
Neo	?: ((See Pano))

((I was supposed to just have a quick answer over and hour and a half ago but ended up going ham. Oops.))

 

[Seren]

[[The problem is everyone's plays feel towny it seems. I am inclined to consider voting shinji unless we have another reasonable target, but I'm around all night so I'll hold off.]]

[[This is kind of how I'm feeling. The fact that the new EoD means that it will be 4 am for me and I work again tomorrow (I'm around now because Sunday/Wednesday are my off-days, hence why I was working and unavailable on Saturday) means I will not be staying up for it.]]

[[Because this was the second night in a row where only one person died. In basically every other mafia game I've been in there was a SK/Arsonist/etc

And multiple people died per night fairly often! 1 death was surprising to me!]]

[[I guess I'm taking it more on a case-by-case basis, especially as this game is small by normal standards? I have less experience, but I figure one death per night would be the norm, not the outlier. I just found it unlikely for there to be a TP without us somehow knowing about it by this point, in a game this small, so for it to even be mentioned so out of the blue just made my brain go ???????????

Thank you for at least clarifying why you mentioned it, even if the timing did still feel odd to me. ]]

[[Its true that I haven’t been as involved this game, but also…that aside, I feel like I’ve still been pretty darn active? Aside from missing EoD on D1, which was for a very valid irl reason, I’ve been doing my best to keep up. I have tried to give as much information as possible without giving my role away, I’ve been theorizing and sharing my reads, etc. I genuinely don’t know what more you want from me, lol

[[See below. ]]

He straightened and barked at Snot Bird. He couldn’t read minds, but he did have a plan! Rest assured, he, Neo, would solve this case. He would blow it wide open!

[[This is the kind of thing I've been seeing from you early that makes me side-eye you. It's a lot of fluff but nothing really... insightful. You've definitely stepped it up though, and your acknowledgement of my previous post's points helped settle my nerves a little bit, and I also appreciated the willingness to role claim,but... the fact remains that we still have little else to go on, so I'm resorting to nitpicking things like this to try to gleam any information out of them. I know it's not much to go on, and not in itself a spectacular reason to sus you, but I feel there's little else to go on.]]

((I was supposed to just have a quick answer over and hour and a half ago but ended up going ham. Oops.))

[[Kind of want to also mention that if we're reading Sind on the clean list, I'd argue Minty should be too, if only because of the level of detail in this latest report. Doesn't mean a scum couldn't/wouldn't also be keeping track of all of this, too, but I feel this level of detail/work put into research and backtracking would be unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. ]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[lolllllll]]

The soft flick of the knife sliced through the silence of the room. Steven gave a bored glance at the hissing Mimikyu. Touchy little creature. Who knew ghosts were so sensitive? Mildly, he wondered if anyone had ever exorcised a ghost by hurting their feelings.

But the nasty creature was dead serious, brandishing the knife. With a hint of amusement, Steven wondered if all those patches in its cloak were from swinging it around so haphazardly. Tricky business, that. Playing with sharp things will leave you cut.

He tipped his head to the side and uncrossed his arms, letting the light glint off the bladed edge of his wings; each one larger than the Mimikyu, disguise and all. "What do you really think you're going to accomplish with that thing?"

Loïc looked mostly unfazed by the big blades. He’d seen way worse at trainer school, and he beat those guys down easily…with Ange and Enora and Solene and Isaur’s help, of course…

Still, Blue Big Bird was clearly asking for it. He proceeded to make a clicking noise as he raised his other hand, the iconic silver Monopoly thimble, car, boot, and dog laying in his palm. The plastic houses probably wouldn’t hurt, but these…he could make them hurt.

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

Loïc looked mostly unfazed by the big blades. He’d seen way worse at trainer school, and he beat those guys down easily…with Ange and Enora and Solene and Isaur’s help, of course…

Still, Blue Big Bird was clearly asking for it. He proceeded to make a clicking noise as he raised his other hand, the iconic silver Monopoly thimble, car, boot, and dog laying in his palm. The plastic houses probably wouldn’t hurt, but these…he could make them hurt.

Steven sighed. So the irritating little gremlin didn't get the hint after all. Did he even know who he was picking a fight with? Sure, Steven had never fought a battle as a pokemon, but one did not simply become a League Champion by accident. Besides, Empoleon were steel types. How much different could it be?

A sickening curiosity swept over Steven, and he channeled all his thoughts into the move he was sure he should know. The surge of power was almost immediate. The tips of his wings ignited in a white glow and quickly grew to sheath the rest of the blade edges in light. Steel wing's energy hummed through him, and he almost shivered in anticipation.

It had been a while since his last match. He was never one to crave battle, but for some reason it was suddenly an itch he wanted to scratch.

Though, were they even allowed to fight within the mansion? He snuck a glance at the Mademoiselle, but she seemed bored off her rocker and paying the two of them no mind.

Mentally he shrugged. If the Mimikyu wanted a battle, that's what he would get.

He smirked. "I'll do the gentlemanly thing and give the challenger the first move."

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Arggghhh... I won't be up until just before 7am my time, which won't be long to catch up on anything.

I guess I'll have to wing it and hope for the best. I don't want to vote yet, I'll have to hope I can catch up enough come morning.]]

 

[windskull]

Anti gave the combatants a long stare and, for a moment, considered jumping in. But no, he didn't need to get himself into trouble - he was in enough as it was.

[[Alright, now that I'm home time to shape things up. First, before I start getting into analysis, I want to present a thought I had at work. We've discussed back and forth the fact its felt like there was no organization for the mafia. ANd maybe... there isn't, during the day? While not the TR standard, some games don't let the mafia talk privately during the day. Something like Jackie's cop claim could leave things disorganized. (And now I'm having flashbacks to vanilla mafia)

As for Jackie and picking up on her being a cop, there were some things she said day one that tipped me off that she had some sort of info role. Namely, these:

Why are you so excited to kill someone when you know getting it wrong might get rid of someone really useful? Like a Doctor or something!"

[[Voting for the quietest player is fucking bullshit and I'm sussing you extremely hard for it, tbh. Anyway, I know I'm town and I'm getting my strongest townread off Free, which leaves the person sussing us both.

She voted for someone I'm certain is a townie which could "seriously mess up towns chances at victory" and now she's on about how voting for her is sus when there's no more hard evidence she's town that for anyone else?

The fact that Jackie was certain that free was town suggest to me that, if not cop, Jackie had some really good reason to get a strong read off of Free, likely through some form of info role. Free's been known to be really good as stealth mafia, so Jackie checking free early in the game makes a lot of sense.

Deeper analysis coming shortly. Due to time constraints, I'm only going to focus on people I'd be willing to vote for this phase, which as of right now are Yellow, Shini, and possibly Seren, depending on my review. Tetra and Minty aren't off my radar but there are better choices for the night. I'll briefly touch on why they're still on radar though.

Tetra I touched on briefly last night, but her innocence as of right now is solely dependent on a manipulative role, such as deflector or bus. And, to me, her role reveal felt a little bit convenient, as it's something that can't be verified until tomorrow. A mislynch today and a kill in the night puts us at 4/3 on against a theoretical 3 mafia team. Not a great position. That said, with the current roll of suspects still narrow, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt and give it a chance to be proven.

Minty feels extremely town to me, and the only way I can see them being mafia is if they're on a team with Shini, and Shini has a more valuable role. But that feels extremely outlandish, and only works in that very specific scenario. I'm not against revisiting it on a later day. But I'm not giving it any deeper thought right now.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Ok I might be going to bed soon and it appears we are no closer to a vote than we were four hours ago. I am not going to be present for EoD as it is 5AM my time and I will not be awake for that. I don’t want to push people but…I’d like to have an idea of where we’re headed so I’m not blindsided come morning.]]

 

[MintyMimix]

((Every single time I thought I was finished combing through these posts, there were more. Holy hell, this took awhile.))

Spoiler: Pano Posts

#41:
Roleclaim Town. Pointed out that her trying to get rid of Zen as a first KO would be not a good idea.

#53:
"At this point, if the scum can use a coin flip for their decisions, then so can I. And I believe I have the prerequisites for my pool of votes as well... Unless of course, someone wants to speak up and change my mind."

#63:
Clarified #53 as flavor (while IC). Goes with assessment of 3 scum and unknown TPs.

#67:
Goes along with Wind's proposition and votes for the opposite of Wind's suspects (Wind went for Tetra, so Pano went for Jackie) to put pressure and keep the theories running evenly and concurrently. Suspected Tetra and noted that vague "role is good" is not convincing. Claimed time limit as the leading factor for this pressure.

#77:
Suggested possibility of Jackie being a Silencer role.

#83:
Noted that Jackie posting shattered the Silencer theory.

#102:
Continued putting pressure on Jackie. Suggested having Tetra reveal role on the gamble that the Protector would let her be spared. Pressured Yellow and Gojira after.

#126:
Pointed out that she no longer had a working theory but did not retract the vote on Jackie.

#128:
Pointed out that Wind did actually try to nudge Tetra for inactivity despite that she posted. Used this as evidence of having a connection with Tetra and intentionally targeting her first as a scumplay.

#137:
Pointed out contradiction with Tetra's reasoning. Then suspected Wind.
[Still is voting Jackie based on the coinflip Wind proposed to begin with?]

#144:
Reads. Proposed Tetra/Wind and Free/Jackie as scum pairings. Asserted 3 Mafia members again, and suspected Yellow as the 3rd. All others Town-ish.
[I understand why she had no qualms with me and Sind, but was it ever established why Seren and Gojira felt Town-oriented by this point, other the the initial poking by Seren? Regardless, suspicion is now on Gojira with her as the primary driver for that play, so not a point worth harping about.]

#146:
Insisted that Tetra reveal her role to save her skin, but clarified an understanding with past games as to why Tetra might not be inclined to have done so.
Noted off-ness of Jackie's post. Result was being the only one to fully commit to Jackie.

#157:
Pointed out TP foundation on Tetra's power was an odd swerve.
[I agree.]

#163:
Pressured Jackie, Seren, Wind, Sind [and fire] and Yellow.

#170:
Asked everyone to begin sharing information (allusion to roleclaiming?).
Suspected myself, Gojira, Wind, and Seren for lack of activity.
Stated defense for not revealing role due to being a useful one. "My powers can help the town's cause, but I cannot do this on my own."
[This is very interesting phrasing. Putting a pin on it, because that's not the topic of discussion right now; remind me to follow up on D3 if I'm still alive.]

#255:
Retracted suspicions on Tetra after the full description of her role claim. Praised Free [now deceased] and Jackie for targeting Tetra and blowing the case wide open. Emphasized that no one should claim today. Pressured Jackie again for the hardline stance, but refrained from suspecting.

#273:
On board with idea that scum has a deception role.
Suggested that no info from an inforole can be definitively substantiated anymore due to presence of deceiver.

#296:
Suggested Deflector as the deceiver role.

#310:
Expressed regret at forcing two critical roles out into the open.

#324 - #328:
Questioned why Tetra would be the target of Deflector due to be Prime Suspect.
Concerned that we had no guesses on scum powers / other powers at play.
Hypothesized abilities are weighted towards town.
Suspected inactive members; urged Gojira in particular to begin posting due to everyone else's minor suspicions on him.

#332:
Glad that Gojira was active, but asked for his defense which hadn't been present in the post.
(For clarification, Gojira followed up #333/#334 by stating that a nudge vote wouldn't need a defense and timezone issues).

#366:
Stated that 2 scum is more likely now due to lack of vote bandwagoning indicating lack of Mafia voting power.

#385, #389:
Unconvinced by Gojira's overall contributions and defense, hardline stance voted for him.

#401:
Made a proposition:
1. One of the scum is likely a Roleblocker. [I don't believe that's necessarily the case.]
2. Because of the above, Mafia has 3 sabotage-ish actions, and if the town could create a 4th possible actions, that would force the Mafia's hand as they cannot take everyone out at once. Thus, in this scenario two people should reveal their role.
3. Volunteered herself to do so (implied stipulation that someone else needs to be on board with this).

#403:
Retracted proposition convinced by Jackie saying it's too unsafe to assume the presence of a scum Roleblocker. [I agree.]

#408 / #441:
Further hardline on Gojira due to lack of defense and lack of time.

Spoiler: Yellow's Posts

#55:
Asked Pano to share information about suspects.

#58:
Claim Town-oriented.

#147:
Initial skim evaluation. Side-eyed Tetra for aggressive voting but still evaluated as Town move due to prior games. Named off Free as Town, Sind/Tetra/Gojira as soft Town.

#149:
Voted to Abstain.

#156:
Questioned why Tetra brought up TP as a possibility.

#159:
Once clarified that it was actually meant to be a "no TP with kill power", suggested that it wasn't entirely safe to rule out due to possible special conditions to multiple deaths.

#162:
[Going to preface this by saying this is a summary of this post; let's not go over some of these points which have been long overturned.]
Made some claims:
1. Pano was demanding a lot of information, but failed to provide any herself.
2. Called out Jackie for suddenly abstaining as a first action while also accusing Tetra.
3. Low activity on D1 meant throwing suspicion suddenly would be questioned, so a quiet mafia was expected.

#165:
Lessened suspicions on Pano. Trusted Free, who trusted Tetra, so trusted Tetra as well.

#169:
Further cemented trust in Tetra after her rebuttal.
Suspicious of Jackie.
Claimed against abstaining D1 due to small game size, but wasn't in a position to voice thoughts.
Side-eyed Gojira due to being quick to vote to abstain after Jackie suggested it on basis of scum following teammate's lead. [Now that Jackie's been mostly absolved, does this also change this suspicion?]

#171:
Noted riskiness of Pano's massclaim proposal, but was willing to play along.

#186:
In response to Sind's board and a second look at the posts, suspected Tetra again.
Side-eyed Jackie due to suggesting to abstain D1, but defend her on rule clarification.
Soft defended Wind on missing Tetra's first post due to also missing posts, believing it as a nudge.
Agreed with Sind's potential idea of TP Tetra.
Hestitantly agreed to go along with Pano's idea and softclaim, but emphasized that not everyone should softclaim, and it's only because of lack of information.

#193:
Agreed with Sind's idea of Jackie being Mafia and killed Free as a ploy to appear more innocent.
Noted that Tetra killing Free after being tunneled would be a terrible move on Tetra's part, and lessened suspicion as scum.
Continued entertaining TP as a possibility, but noted unlikely nature of 3 scum and a TP due to game size.

#228:
Reads.
1. Sind as Town.
2. Jackie as suspicious.
3. Reproposed offer to softclaim to help put everyone's minds at ease.
4. Noted that her role is "not very straightforward".
[Putting a pin on #4 for D3 discussion. Not relevant for D2.]

#230:
Encouraged Tetra to claim first, stating it would be say to assume there is at least one Doctor or Protector role that could try to safeguard Tetra.

#241:
Asked others to confirm validity of Motivator. Noted that she was not the chosen target.
[NOTE: #246 from Tetra clarifies that she did not use her ability N0, but did N1 with a 1 turn delay due to logistical reasons. Thus, we will not see the effect of this until D3. In fact, if one of us ends up getting the boosted use, it might be worthwhile to come right out and say it tomorrow.]

#247:
Provided point of information on Motivator role. Noted it is a bit of a convenient excuse, even if it was an elaborately detailed thing to make up and she had done the same thing as scum in the prior game.
Asked for boost as it is "extremely helpful for Town", but also noting that roleclaiming would be lesser risk than a Doctor or Cop due to be "not quite as vital as others".

#249:
"I strongly recommend you boost either me or…others (who shall not be named) who have very subtly hinted at their roles."

#259:
Instant reaction of surprise to The Bombshell.

#268 / #271:
Stated that one of three things happening:
A. Jackie is lying about her read on Tetra.
B. Tetra is lying about her role.
C. They're both telling the truth, and a bus driver [proposed by Tetra] had deceived Jackie.
Upon review, stated scum doing trade-offs would be a terrible play, so Option (C) is extremely likely, with a softer but still unlikely Option (B).
Also called out Seren and Gojira due to inactivity.

#277:
Threw a vote on Gojira to get him to talk.

#280:
Visceral reaction to the possibility that no info from an inforole can be definitively substantiated anymore due to presence of Deflector.

#360:
Showed skepticism at full innocence of Tetra/Jackie based on Deflector/Driver theory. Not 100% brought in but not actively suspicious either.
Asked about what Pano meant in #53.
"I’m less sure about whether they were actually hinting at their role or if we’ve both been reading too much into it. Hmm."
Clarified #247. Apologetic for inactivity EoD D1.
Gremlins attacking. [I'm sorry Yellow :C If you want to chat after the game, I'd be more than happy to do so.]

#361:
Agreed with Jackie's Townread of Sind.

#383:
Asked why Tetra finds her sus.
Uncertain about who to suspect other than the inactive players, who have clarified that work obligations are keeping them from posting/analyzing thoroughly.
Noted Gojira as the safest vote, but doesn't feel right about it, since he's been asked to elaborate but have remained silent and feels there's something else happening behind the scenes.

#387:
Acquiesced to Tetra's reasoning for suspecting her.

#405:
Agreed with Tetra that anyone trying to defend Gojira at this point would look suspicious. Wanted to cut Gojira slack due to newness and timezones, but lack of defense making it difficult. Wind and Seren's inactivity, while also reasonable, made them suspect. Noted that Seren seemed to be trying his best to be present.

#406:
Stood by that Gojira is the safest vote.

#448:
Stated she is trying her best to keep up without giving role away, theorizing and sharing reads - uncertain how else she should be defending herself at this juncture.
Noted not being totally sold on both Tetra & Jackie being innocent due to slim chance of Tetra making up the role and reaction, but still willing to buy into it for now due to being a reach.

#450:
Asked for clarification on Minty/Gojira would not work as a pairing.

#452:
Noted top suspects were Wind, Seren, and Gojira.

#472:
Poked Pano. (Got ninja'd as #471 was posted right before.)
[This at least absolves Pano/Yellow as a possible scum pairing.]
Noted Gojira is first pick, and Seren as second.

((Bearing all of this mind and what has happened, let me boot up the table again.))

Loïc	+3: Details, details, details! So much detail in #182 While this does not absolve her of suspicion persay, it's an approach that is for certainly helpful to Town. Everything logically follows that she should be good, but there's something in the back of my head itching at me. I will say this: I don't think Pano/Sind are a pair, because of the closeness of #82/#83/#84 and #273/#274's near simultaneous timing reacting to The Bombshell, and #477.
Diamond	0: #431 Raises reasonable points regarding possible unusual TP focus and cast doubt on the Bus Driver theory due to its convenience. While I admit that it is possible to be a gambit, I really do not peg Tetra to be that kind of extremely emotionally manipulative person to have the reaction that she did in #256 - #270. Literally the only reason for a suspicion point for me; everything else is pretty neutral-leaning. Would not vote off Seren first because of this.
Anti-Bravoman	+1: Thank you for the follow-ups on #480 on #486. Performed the first hard pressure with a fair reason and retraction (#54 , #66, #85) with a fair reason when pointed out the contradiction of the action (#134), and weaving good play advice within it. They also had very good reads on Free and Jackie (#151, #177, #189) and suitable pressure throughout (#177).
Steven Stone	+2: I will agree that there's a bit of vagueness and deflection here and there. However, the vast majority of the moves Pano has made have been attempts to draw out information, propose possibilities, pressure subjects and in general just get the conversation going for the Town. Very Town-oriented.
Hana	+4: Either you're really, really good at faking reactions, or #261 - #270 were real. Even if your behavior has been suspect before, I'm betting on your innocence given how real that was, and how that more aggressive posting pasting has aligned with your behavior throughout the game in terms of timing consistently, even if the claims themselves may not always be.
Litno	-1: I'm willing to look the other way and say they're a victim of circumstance and general lack of clarity in this game, but I'm of the opinion they're still our strongest lead. It fucking hurts me to say that after getting a positive read from them and came to a general understanding, but it also as others have stated is a "safe" bet. I'm sorry.
Salem Weir	+5: Look, what hasn't already been said? Claiming cop at the time that she did would be a baffling scum move, and all reasons given for past actions track very well. If there anyone I am certain of Town, it's Jackie.
Neo	+1: While there was a lot of nodding and going along early game, I think what makes Yellow Town-leaning for me are posts #241, #249, #259 (for purely timing reasons), #268, #271 and #360. It seems like on the surface she genuinely is trying to contribute to the conversation and even was willing to softclaim as part of Pano's strategy.

((Other thoughts:
- Pairing between Pano / Sind is unlikely. #82/#83/#84 and #273/#274 timing.
- Pairing between Pano / Yellow is unlikely. #471/#472 timing.
- Tetra's claim will need to be accounted for by someone on D3. If you get boosted, please say so (assuming the boosted person / Tetra are not victims... or scum).
- I believe we should investigate some of the role allusions Pano and Yellow have made in D3/D4.
))

((Given the above, I've cast my vote. Sorry for pushing a 12 hour extension only to loop back around; I'm just glad to have made a play that at least took some of the head off of me and have actual confidence in my vote now.))

Vote: ShiniGojira
@Inkedust

 

[MintyMimix]

((As a quick heads up for Friday since it looks like that's when the 48 hour mark will hit for D3: I have back-to-back meetings at work and run a TTRPG game after. Will be infrequent in my posts because of it. Giving that heads up in advance. Assuming I'm alive, of course, hah.))

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Aight so I went through Seren and Wind’s posts and compared them to each other. I am now significantly less suspicious of Wind, on the basis that they a) caught on to Jackie’s role but did not say it directly in an attempt to keep them hidden, b) started siding against Tetra as soon as they caught on to this, and c) their general notes and town reads have been pretty town-y to me. I do recall that, in the game before last, I spent an entire day SO SURE that Wind was Mafia, only to eat crow later, LOL. Wind has, from what I’ve seen, always been a slightly more low-key player. Which was the main basis for my suspicion in the previous game, but obviously that was wrong. I don’t want to make the same mistake again.

And upon going back through, I’m finding Seren more suspicious. For one, they did not buy in immediately to Jackie or Tetra’s innocence—to be fair, neither did I! But the more I think about it, the less it makes sense. I just can’t fathom a situation where either of them galaxy brained this hard and pulled it off so perfectly. After revising my theories and reads, I’m honestly inclined to believe both of them, despite my original misgivings. I think I got caught up in galaxy-braining.

The biggest thing that both changed my mind about Tetra/Jackie and made me suspicious of Seren was that Seren has been throwing around a lot of sus at nearly everyone, but especially has honed in on Tetra after Jackie’s roleclaim. It would be foolish to tunnel Jackie after such a claim, but Tetra is still vulnerable and, as we’ve seen before, is not immune to flailing when thrown into crisis mode. (Which is understandable, tbh.) It feels to me like Seren has been trying to sow seeds of doubt in everyone’s minds about this, and he has also come for Pano more than once, who has a fairly strong town read across the board.

Last but not least, I feel that Seren is trying, in a masterfully subtle way, to turn the votes to me. He hasn’t said hardly anything about Shini, but he’s been talking a lot about how suspicious I am—not that he’s the only one! But he’s felt the most insistent to me, and while I wouldn’t call it outright tunneling, it’s not something to be ignored.

But even if I did ignore any of his suspicions toward me, I can’t overlook the fact that he’s been interrogating everyone and emphasizing reasons why we can’t trust person A or B. Or coming after people for not being specific enough with their role hints, only to not even once say anything regarding his role, not even a “I’m helpful for town.” (If I missed this, please correct me. I don’t think I’ve seen it anywhere.)

Strong sus for Seren. The fact that he’s barely commented on Shini when he has so much to say about everyone else doesn’t help my suspicions about Shini, either. I firmly believe we should vote Seren or Shini.]]

 

[MintyMimix]

((Brain is fried after spending the last 4 hours with the post by posts, but I'm inclined to agree. I do not have the energy to do further research on the matter / will be sleeping through EoD so I am maintaining my vote. That being said, if there's enough support for the suspicion on both parties, all you need is a tie to make it a GM-coinflip on the vote.))

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[I realize this would be better if I quoted the actual posts I’m referring to, so please hold while I do that.]]

 

[Seren]

The biggest thing that both changed my mind about Tetra/Jackie and made me suspicious of Seren was that Seren has been throwing around a lot of sus at nearly everyone, but especially has honed in on Tetra after Jackie’s roleclaim. It would be foolish to tunnel Jackie after such a claim, but Tetra is still vulnerable and, as we’ve seen before, is not immune to flailing when thrown into crisis mode. (Which is understandable, tbh.) It feels to me like Seren has been trying to sow seeds of doubt in everyone’s minds about this, and he has also come for Pano more than once, who has a fairly strong town read across the board.

Last but not least, I feel that Seren is trying, in a masterfully subtle way, to turn the votes to me. He hasn’t said hardly anything about Shini, but he’s been talking a lot about how suspicious I am—not that he’s the only one! But he’s felt the most insistent to me, and while I wouldn’t call it outright tunneling, it’s not something to be ignored.

[[I'm finding sus with everyone because I'm reading almost everyone as town, and I know that's not correct. It's literally impossible. So as I said before, I'm nitpicking anything I can find that might be questionable. I could go back to not posting, but then I'd just be hearing "oh he's so quiet he must be guilty". Seems I'm damned if I do, damned if I don't.

As for Shini, I've already explained elsewhere that I don't like being sus of quiet players simply because they're quiet. They read to me like a newbie not sure what they're doing. What more is there to say about him? ]]

But even if I did ignore any of his suspicions toward me, I can’t overlook the fact that he’s been interrogating everyone and emphasizing reasons why we can’t trust person A or B. Or coming after people for not being specific enough with their role hints, only to not even once say anything regarding his role, not even a “I’m helpful for town.” (If I missed this, please correct me. I don’t think I’ve seen it anywhere.)

[[Is that not the point of the game? Trying to point out reasons why we can't trust person A or person B? Trying to figure out who can be trusted? I'm not sure what you're getting at here, trying to throw shade on me for, y'know, trying to play the game...

I haven't mentioned my own role much because it's not relevant. No one's asked, and I'm not going to just blurt it out like Tetra blurting out the possible third party thing. Also would be super hypocritical of me.

For what it's worth, if we're going to flat out mass-role claim, my only objection would be that I feel like just revealing everyone's powers is a bad idea in general. But if that's what it takes, then so be it. I'd be willing to reveal my power. Without giving it away, maybe I can provide a hint... assuming Tetra's being honest, I don't know how Tetra's could possibly interact with it successfully in a way that makes sense. ]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Alright I am freshly showered and ready to make a closing post. I should be awake before EoD by about 20 min. Hopefully I can catch up....

Yellow makes a good point that I was feeling about Seren. Yellow also feels very helpful and agreeing. This isn't a sus just a general remark...

Minty is higher on my list conditionally for the moment. I like their plays, their insight, abstaining. Feels townish for now, not sus enough to vote for them.

Wind is still sus to me because if Wind knew Jackie was cop, even if they were scum there would be no reason to hide this. That said their plays still feel good, but not quite enough to exonerate them. And figuring out Jackie was cop early is good for scum and plays into my theory that Free was killed to pull double duty. Not saying anything is exactly what scum or town might do.

Pano I still feel town-y about as well, if only because this feels like mildly aggressive and wild plays and ideas that a townie would make because they don't have to appear too measured, if that makes sense.

Seren still feels mildly sus. If only because they seemed to be so weird about the TP thing and the bus thing (which is understandable but at this point I gotta pick something. *shrug *) fwiw you read kinda townish too.

Sind.... Sind I don't want to count out. I won't vote them for now but I don't want to assume anything yet. They make beeg posts and roundups, but that could be just scum playing good town? But they are helpful.

At the end of the day, someone has to go. Wavering between Shini, Wind and Seren...

 

[HelloYellow17]

"However, however! Now you are the one who has admitted to an important role." He cast a hasty glance towards Hana., then back to Steven. "But with a twist! Perhaps you are being honest with us after all, hhhhhmmmmmm???"

[[Seems to prod Pano to give more information once she has hinted about her role.

Diamond glanced at the others in turn. "Silence does not mean guilty," he stated outright. "In fact, one could argue that the most talkative ones are the most suspect! What better way to keep attention off yourself than to constantly do nothing else besides point that attention towards another?"

[[For the record, this is flavor. I am not saying I sus Pano, because as of yet, I haven't felt anything really scummy other than Steven's RP flavor attitude. That said, and maybe I'm letting the RP flavor bother me a bit too much, but I'm not getting a great feeling, either.

Defends the more silent players while throwing some doubt on the more active ones. To be fair, this is a valid point, but it also feels a little like misdirection to me.

I disagree with this one in the sense that Pano's been the main poker so far, I think. That said, I stand by what Diamond said in my previous post that while Steven has been poking people a lot, he hasn't really had a lot to offer up himself, either, other than a sturdier "My Role Is Good For Town" than Tetra's was.

Continues to express doubts of Pano and Tetra.

From what I gather, we're assuming there's a bus driver or similar role, which is why Jackie got a guilty reading on Tetra. Honestly, I want to believe her, in no small part due to the fact that I made a similar blunder back in my first game, with the difference being that my flailing was more in RP posts rather than panic spamming. But there's still a part of me that wonders if she'd still have done that if she were mafia, too?

More doubts of Tetra and the authenticity of the whole bus driver angle

[Frankly, truthfully claiming cop is a horrible idea too, unless you know for sure either you can survive, it will win your the game, or you just don't feel like playing anymore. ]]

…not sure what this is? Is this trying to sow seeds of doubt about Jackie, too?

Gonna just ditto what I said to Yellow. What are you looking for from me? I'm as surprised as anyone, but by the time I get home and start posting now, it's old news. What can I possibly add to it that hasn't already been said, without possibly painting a target on my own back, too? ]]

I find this ironic, as I have said the exact same thing back to you, and I have at least hinted at more information than you have!

[[Well of course I'm skeptical as all hell, but I just... can't see any alternatives? I feel it would just make me look bad if I was the only one objecting with no evidence as to why. I do just feel it's all very coincidental/hypothetical, but I have no alternative suggestions so the idea that Tetra was swapped is the one that makes most sense. ]]

More doubts/skepticism about the Tetra/Jackie debacle

[[Just going to say that I can see the reasoning. If they're busy, (IE at work, like I sometimes am when catching up), and don't have time to properly review all the info, I can see the case for making a post just being like "I don't want to vote without having proper insight which I do not currently have the time for right now". Admittedly they didn't give a reason there, but I wouldn't immediately be sus of it. ]]

Defends Shini for only posting “don’t have time to vote”. ]]

 

[windskull]

Ok I need to go to bed in like. 20 minutes so I'm cutting this deep analysis short so I can skim the rest of Yellow's and Shini's posts. Deep analysis on yellow goes up to post #186

Review of Yellow's day one.

Spoiler

Skipping over the first few posts as they seem to be all fluff, the first actual thing of note is this post, where Neo claims innocence and does little else. Which, like, fair, but also meaningless.

He wasn’t sure who was a bad guy yet, but he knew he wasn’t a bad guy!

In the next post of note, Yellow agrees with Sind's reasoning on the number of mafia, and expresses hesitance on voting for an inactive.

Hmmm. Neo liked the Rag Gremlin’s reasoning. He was quite smart, even if his ghost typing scared him a little. If Novo were here, he would feel a lot more at ease around them…

Hmm. That seemed smart, but Neo didn’t like voting for someone he hadn’t met yet. He wanted to give them a chance to show themselves first.

(As an aside, this was wrt steven voting for Salem, though it had been mistaken for me at first. I had still voted for someone I thought was inactive so the point is still fair)

Yellow offers loose d1 reads. Abstains shortly after.

I am side-eying Tetra a little bit for her aggressive voting—however, this does line up with her play in previous games so far. She has always been one of the first players to gun for people and try to pry out answers. So, minor side-eye, but not enough for me to be actively sus just yet.

I honestly don’t have any solid reads because today was so quiet, but I’ll go off just general vibes for the moment.

Town-ish vibes:
Free
Sind (?)
Tetra (?)
Uhhh I forget their name but the Goomy RPer

Day one is very vague and doesn't offer a lot to go off of, But that goes for most people.

Yellow's day two

Spoiler

Yellow asks tetra why she's bringing u TP shortly after the day opens. Short amount of time between these posts.

[[can you explain why? There was only one death, right? Why would this mean there’s an unusual third party?

Not that I’m doubting the existence of one. I’d just like to hear more of your reasoning.]]

Yellow says TP can't yet be ruled out just because there was only one death. (As an aside, at this point I personally suspect that if we DO have TP, it's something like a survivor.

[[Ahhh I see. Still though…I don’t think it’s safe to rule it out yet. There could be conditions as to why there haven’t been multiple deaths yet.]]

Yellow casts suspicion on Jackie, Pano, and Tetra. Reasons for suspicion for Jackie are factually incorrect based on game history, but Yellow isn't the only one to make this mistake so I'm not going to count it as a fault until I have time to revisit the thread as a wholetomorrow, given that she's not voted out today or eliminated in the night.

[[Quick ooc note: at EoD I was so busy I was BARELY able to skim the thread to know what was going on. Going back through, Jackie was the first to suggest an abstain, which…seems odd! From what I can recall, Jackie is usually against abstaining on D1, especially in smaller games, and this is one of the smallest games yet. It was also odd that they pushed for an abstain while also accusing Tetra.

Due to the low activity on D1, it wouldn’t be wise for any mafia to throw suspicion on anyone out of the blue. They didn’t have much to work with, so pushing to abstain while throwing sus on a few other players to sow seeds of doubt would be the best play. And Jackie did exactly that. Highly sus of Jackie rn.

As for Pano, the jury is still out, but I didn’t miss that she dodged questions and was very aggressively digging for info at the same time. The aggro approach is something I’ve never seen from Pano before, but it could also just be RP flavor, what with a different character and all. So I’m mostly unsure, but I sure am side-eying.

As for Tetra, she was also dodgy with answering questions—but this could be chalked up to being Town and not wanting to give any hints about her role. (The same could apply to Pano, too, if she’s town.) Buuuut I dunno. Something about her play seems off but I can’t put my finger on it.

Buuut, both Pano and Jackie have been pretty accusatory of Tetra. Either this is a mafia ploy to stage fights amongst each other to avoid suspicion, or Tetra is Town and both of them are Mafia. Those two are my top suspects rn. Would love to hear a defense from either of them.]]

Yellow's suspicion of Pano and Tetra lessen. Similar to above, the read of Free defending tetra was a mistake, but it was a mistake that several people make.

[[Yes soooo I really should have read over the thread thoroughly before posting, lol. Anyway, I’m still behind and catching up on EoD shenanigans. Pano mentioned vague suspicion of Jackie a couple of times—which definitely doesn’t clear her, but my suspicions have lessened slightly.

Free also defended Tetra in her last post. Free generally has good insight so I’m inclined to trust her instincts, but ALSO nobody is perfect and she could be wrong. However, she made a good point when she said Tetra was flailing a bit, and that didn’t read like someone who has a mafia team behind them.]]

Continues to be suspicious of Jackie, brings up the reason that she voted abstain (which, she didn't have to do it. But if town and the town majority were abstaining, could make for an easier target for the mafia to push blame on to.) Also places suspicion on Shini for voting abstain shortly after Jackie did.

I’m still highly sus of Jackie, but very open to what they have to say when they get up.

Two more things I forgot to say: one, I was VERY against abstaining yesterday because this is a small role madness game and abstaining just felt way too risky. However I wasn’t in a position to voice my thoughts on it so I just had to throw in the towel and vote abstain, even though I didn’t want to.

Second: I’m also side-eying Gojira juuuuust a wee bit. Shortly after Jackie pushed to abstain, they voted to abstain as well, saying there wasn’t enough information yet. This reads a lot like scum following a teammate’s lead to me—but it also could just be a new player wanting to play on the safe side of things. Either way, I want to hear a lot more from them.]]

Feels less bad about Pano, but dislikes the mass claim. I don't think distrusting an early mass claim can be used to point to being town or mafia. Both have valid reasons for not wanting an early claim (Mafia having to scramble for fake claims and town leaving all power roles heavily exposed)

Neo listened intently to Snot Bird’s outburst. Despite his misgivings, he had to admit that he sounded…sincere. Hmm. He was still unsure of him, but for now, the thought of the bird raised his hackles a little less.

He did, however, angle his ears back a little at Snot Bird’s suggestion. It wasn’t a terrible idea, but it certainly was risky! And how could they know who was telling the truth or not? What if everyone just claimed to have useful powers…what then?

Yellow expresses disbelief that Mafia killed Free to make Tetra look bad.

[[Did they, though…? I mean, Free was defending you by the end. My guess is they got rid of Free because she’s a very good scum hunter.]]

Other things of note after I ran out of time:
Yellow claims role is tricky to describe and is less effective once revealed. (I have some ideas of what they could be if town, but I'm probably wrong lol.
Yellow thinks Tetra's claim is legit, and would be broken if Mafia.
When Jackies cop claim went out, decides to focus on other possible suspects.
Brings up the fact that anyone defending Shini at this stage will probably look sus. Is a little weirded out by more vetran players allowing Shini the newbie defense. Defends self in 448

I feel like my overall read is still very Neutral and I'm having a hard time going higher than that, but nothing feels out of place either. Need to look at Shini's posts before I make a decision. WIll be back with a loose analysis and a vote within the hour.

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[desperately want to sleep but I’m waiting for windskull’s next post before I do. Don’t know what I’d do with myself if I woke up to a vote train starting on me and finding out I got lynched while asleep. 😅]]

 

[Seren]

[[Seems to prod Pano to give more information once she has hinted about her role.

Defends the more silent players while throwing some doubt on the more active ones. To be fair, this is a valid point, but it also feels a little like misdirection to me.

Continues to express doubts of Pano and Tetra.

More doubts of Tetra and the authenticity of the whole bus driver angle

…not sure what this is? Is this trying to sow seeds of doubt about Jackie, too?

I find this ironic, as I have said the exact same thing back to you, and I have at least hinted at more information than you have!

More doubts/skepticism about the Tetra/Jackie debacle

Defends Shini for only posting “don’t have time to vote”. ]]

[[Okay, let's respond to these in points since quoting doesn't apparently work within quotes.

-Yep, that was early game, when Pano's RP flavor was making it difficult to tell whether or not they were sus or just being dick-Steven. Pretty sure you were sussing them too... hell, you were the one to go out of your way to prod them back in RP (which I had even acknowledged as something you'd done even when I was criticizing your lack of engagement otherwise!)

-Again, I was trying to figure out what Pano was up to, being so aggressive in their prodding.

-In regards to Jackie, I don't see why saying "claiming cop is a stupid idea" is a questionable statement? No, I'm not doubting her now, I was just saying it's a stupid move to reveal you're a cop unless you just want to be killed or it's going to win the game for you. And based off what Jackie had said at the time, she didn't care anymore, hence why she claimed it. I was lamenting the fact that she had gotten to that point.

-Finding something ironic doesn't make it questionable. The "without paining a target on my back too" was intended as a subtle warning that, hey, I don't want mafia attention on me! And as you said, you had made the exact point to me prior to me saying it to you. Why is it sus when you say it to me, and when I return it to you it comes questionable?

-If I'm not mistaken, you also have/had doubts about the Tetra/Jackie thing, so how are you finding me sus over something you yourself questioned? You had agreed with me! Because now you've changed your mind and I haven't?

-Again, I stand by what I said that that's a valid point for Shini. It's flat out stupid to cast a vote if you don't have the proper insight. What's Shihi gonna do, get sussed and just not bother responding? They made that mistake already in this game and seem to have learned from it, as they started posting more afterwards. They posted a reason why they can't catch up and make an informed vote. I legit can't begrudge them for being busy when I am often in the same position - and I know you know how often I'm working, so you know I'm not lying about this. When am I most active on the discord? After 9 pm most nights (which I believe is 10 pm your time), or on my days off. I can make a couple comments here and there on my breaks/lunch, of course, but I learned last game I played that I can not be playing mafia while I'm on the clock. It's not mentally healthy, and it's also putting my job at risk to be constantly, y'know, reading on my phone and not dealing with customers (believe me, I'd rather be doing the former!). It's in bad taste to judge someone, anyone else, for that same reason. Which is why I don't like when people sus the quiet players.

That said, if you feel I should be going and reading in between the lines of all Shini's posts individually, then fine, I can do that. Take note on my last read's list (post #203) that they were already null to me beforehand, though.

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Never mind, I’m too exhausted. Despite all my suspicions of Seren, I still keep second guessing myself so I’m gonna settle for the safest vote, which is Shini. I’m sorry, friend. And if I’m wrong about you…then I’m doubly sorry, not just to you but to all town players for being the one to lead a mislynch and probably lose the game for us. Kinda feels like a curse for me at this point. 🙃 Hoping some sleep will help me feel better, maybe.

VOTE: ShiniGojira

@Inkedust

If I survive to tomorrow, I’ll have lots of things to share. I feel like I should share this sooner rather than later, so: for those of you unhappy with my lack of info, I can say that on D1 I knew of Dragonfree’s innocence. But I am not a cop. This is why I’ve been kicking myself so hard for not being present at EoD because I could have at least vouched for Free then, and maybe even confirmed her innocence. Though that may have ended in a Tetra mislynch anyway, but still.

That’s as much as I will say about my role for now. If I survive to D3, I will reveal my whole role. Please know that if you mislynch me tonight, you will very likely lose the game. Not that I can blame anyone for voting for me, because my play has been absolutely awful. And frankly, if a vote train did start on me, I don’t know if I would have it in me to defend myself.

But a good town player never gives up when they know they are innocent. To throw in the towel would be unsporting. I honestly would wait for wind’s post before saying all I’ve said, but I need to go to bed. So consider this a pre-emptive defense in case a train starts on me, I suppose.

Goodnight, all. ]]

 

[ShiniGojira]

[[I'll... wait I gess, for now. Until Wind posts.

Then I'll post further thoughts, unless people have questions.

I demand a vote from @ShiniGojira though sometime.]]

Like I said before, I was already at school. And my school does not allow phone usage in any form unless phoning for someone, you honestly expected me to find my notes, read through them to find a vote in roughly three minutes?

Actually, why are we voting for me anyways? Other than me being quiet and only providing read lists?

I'm still learning!

Everyone's been providing their own lists so I thought that by providing lists of my own I'd actually contribute to something rather than be a quiet, shy little bi-

Everyone is biased to their own experience, play history and out-of-game relationship with each other, so while something doesn't feel like it's possible, it's probably your own brain trying to override that thought with what you think they would do.

I'm the unknown, in both play history and out-of-game relationship. That allows me to gauge a metric ton on simple cues that are left out by your own bias towards each other, taking in low possibilities and going insane on my own theories but obviously, it works both way.

Just as easy as it would be for me to gauge responses that are overlooked, it also provides a seemingly easy kill for the Mafia, especially if it's a three-scum Mafia.

If I'm town, which I am, I'm like the sacrificial sheep for the wolves, apparently not having a use other than an extra count.

If I'm Mafia, which I'm not, I can easily be an easy sacrifice especially when I don't have a useful role.

But what if? I'm TP?

Hah, nah, that's still not gonna help me in not being voted.

So as you can see, for both town and Mafia, I'm an easy sacrifice, seeing as I'm an unknown.



My defenses were essentially nothing and that's fair. But why wouldn't you/any of you think that maybe there's a reason why I'm not trying to defend myself? Especially when defending myself could paint a target on my back.

D1, I was quiet and only did RP, but that's because I was trying to establish a way to overcome my relunctancy to talk (Having anxiety beating you up everytime you think about talking is absolutely painful). Then, everyone decided to only post most of their things at EoD, and I had only an hour to catch up and read.

D2 started while I was in school, which was when all the chaos happened. Prior to this, I'd only read one day of a Mafia thread, Humble Vale, which had a buddy system so it wasn't as good of an example to this thread. So when I had read the absolute chaos that had occurred, it struck me a bit surprised at how quickly everyone got off Tetra's case when she was the one that not only suggested a TP but also a Bus Driver (Like why instantly assume a Bus Driver? Oh that's right, Tetra was read as guilty). Then Pano brought in an alternative, a Deflector.

You want my thoughts about that? Fine, it was so goddamn coincidental that Pano would instantly go into the wiki and bring up an alternative.

Then, Yellow immediately commented about how they hadn't thought of that, literally only a few minutes after Tetra suggesting a Bus Driver to save her hide.

Everyone seems so dead set on me being a useless asset, and I feel like anyone that immediately wants to vote me should be scrutinized and analyzed more thoroughly.

Like why are you so eager? What do you gain from killing an inexperienced player other than a lower player count?



My vote is hovering over Yellow, Pano and a bit on Tetra.

These three feel like they could be on a three-scum team and craft an absolutely insane plan.