[COMPLETE] THE MADEMOISELLE'S BANQUET (December Mafia)—GAME THREAD

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[Regarding power use: genuinely don't know what the best plan is. It's a game of multi-layer WIFOM, don't you think? If we advise our protector(s) and Tetra to do one thing, the Mafia will know. But then, we know that, and could do something else. But the Mafia know that we know that. Classic mindbender that's impossible to resolve. It means that it's very difficult to know whether I'll survive the night, or who to spy on, etc. I think... My advice/request to town is to not reveal anything else today, and then try to solve the logic knot starting tomorrow at the earliest with mass-info sharing. If I'm still alive, I'll be very excited to help figure that out in a logical way. I love puzzles like that, as much as they give me a headache.]]

Steven tapped the tip of his fin against his chin, staring hard at the ground as he spoke. "Regarding the play moving forward, if what we currently believe is true, there are at least two scum, one of which we are very certain has some kind of deceptive powers. The second very well may have blocking powers. In that case, as it stands from our assumptions, there are three possible plays for them at night: block, swap, and kill.

"Right now, we have two known targets, meaning that while the scum cannot eliminate both of them, they can block or swap the other, and still be free to attempt to find another town target with the remaining skill."

"The scenario I just described is if we mislynch a town member today. However, if we choose well, it's very possible the scum will lose one of the above skills, meaning they might only be able to block OR swap, not both."

Steven paused, his stern expression turning into more of a grimace than anything else. He seemed hesitant to speak again, but speak he did. "...If more town players were to reveal their role today, theoretically, scum would not be able to deal with them all if there are four revealed roles. Ultimately town would suffer some casualties, and I agree, even as I'm saying this it sounds crazy, but I will volunteer myself as one of those who reveals their role if this strategy has any merit."

Steven's expression grew even more strained. "I realize all of this is dependent on our assumptions of what has happened so far being correct. If we aren't, then, well... I don't have to explain what will transpire should we go through with this."

"If this is an insane idea, which I'm sure it is, please tell me and I will happily drop the idea. I defer to those who have more insight into how this game typically unfolds. I just fear for what might happen if we guess wrong and the scum guess right... All the effort we've put in will be for naught."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[I don't think it's safe to assume they have a roleblocker. I'd give it really good odds, but it's not a safe assumption.]]

[[Anyway... I'm not sure. We only have a couple hours to discuss and I want to spend them honing in on a better-than-coinflip lynch, and I don't want to go into N2 with an uncoordinated town and a mafia that has a shitton of extra info on town powers.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[I don't think it's safe to assume they have a roleblocker. I'd give it really good odds, but it's not a safe assumption.]]

[[Anyway... I'm not sure. We only have a couple hours to discuss and I want to spend them honing in on a better-than-coinflip lynch, and I don't want to go into N2 with an uncoordinated town and a mafia that has a shitton of extra info on town powers.]]

[[sounds good to me. There's a lot of assumptions flying around about the set up... late in the day too, agree on all points. I was inspired by Sind's summary of "Tetra does math". Looks like "Pano does math" is not what I should have been going for here lol]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Regarding ShinjiGojira: I'm unfamiliar with Gojira as they're a new participant with no play history, but I am reading them as slightly better than null. I don't detect an agenda in thier posting, and I think their decent-effort lists and scuh are an indication of trying to be useful with limited experience to bring to bear. I believe that we shouldn't vote for him today.]]

[[I will now be closely examining Seren, Wind, Yellow, and Minty.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[It could be that the other scum are too scared to defend shini....]]

[[This. Anyone jumping to Shini’s defense rn would probably look sus, no? Especially since so many people have been so quiet, so it’s not like many of us have done much in-game for others to defend, if that makes sense. I’m conflicted becayse Shini is new and I want to cut them some slack, but also they haven’t been defending themselves or…really doing anything besides RP and a few read lists? (Admittedly, the readlists are very detailed!) But at the same time, the same can be said of Wind and Seren…though it feels like Seren really has been trying his best to be as present as possible. UGH THIS GAME HAS ME MALDING]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Anyway I still think Gojira is our safest vote for today, but I’m open to other arguments. We have less than an hour and a half left, and I’m pretty busy irl, so uhhh I’ll do my absolute best to be watchful of changes! But unless someone presents a convincing argument, I’m keeping my vote where it is.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Had a look over Wind's posts. Getting towny vibes, making a lot of observations I consider sensible, spotted that I might be a cop but said nothing, like a sensible person. Not hungry to lynch them.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[This. Anyone jumping to Shini’s defense rn would probably look sus, no? Especially since so many people have been so quiet, so it’s not like many of us have done much in-game for others to defend, if that makes sense. I’m conflicted becayse Shini is new and I want to cut them some slack, but also they haven’t been defending themselves or…really doing anything besides RP and a few read lists? (Admittedly, the readlists are very detailed!) But at the same time, the same can be said of Wind and Seren…though it feels like Seren really has been trying his best to be as present as possible. UGH THIS GAME HAS ME MALDING]]

[[I hate playing "outside" the game, but consider that the people most interested in defending Shini are ones not currently present... ]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[This. Anyone jumping to Shini’s defense rn would probably look sus, no? Especially since so many people have been so quiet, so it’s not like many of us have done much in-game for others to defend, if that makes sense. I’m conflicted becayse Shini is new and I want to cut them some slack, but also they haven’t been defending themselves or…really doing anything besides RP and a few read lists? (Admittedly, the readlists are very detailed!) But at the same time, the same can be said of Wind and Seren…though it feels like Seren really has been trying his best to be as present as possible. UGH THIS GAME HAS ME MALDING]]

[[I was jumping in to say this and I actually mentioned this earlier--mafia wouldn't be defending Shini because Shini hasn't said anything that could warrant a defense (at least up until their big play-by-play post). Honestly, the only person who has really been defending Shini is...Tetra. And now Jackie. Tetra's been saying Shini's a town read and I haven't seen her say why as of late (I'd need to go back to my tri-fold and re-read her read posts) and Jackie's tentatively chalking it up to n00b play.

Also LMFAO MALDING.]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[ACTUALLY I take that back, Tetra was sussing Shini for a while until this post ]]

Anyways you make a fair point there at least. If we try to tentatively assume shinji isn't a sacrificial lamb and Sind & Shinji might be town...

thats 5 unknowns.

4 if we assume pano is tentatively trustworthy?

So its better odds.

Means picking between... Yellow, Wind, Seren, Minty.

gggrr.... its requires some assumptions tho...]]

 

[ShiniGojira]

I don't have time to vote, goddamn. I'm already at school

 

[Sinderella]

[[And only started not sussing Shini because Jackie said this]]

[[I haven't seen anyone defend Gojira, and I think if they were scumteam they'd be receiving more help. My concern right now is directed not at the quiet newcomers, but at the helpful-but-not-too-helpful players. Really hope to get enough time today to figure out a favourite pick for lynching. I can figure out an eavesdropping target during the night. Shame I can't trust the result.]]

 

[MintyMimix]

[[Had a look over Wind's posts. Getting towny vibes, making a lot of observations I consider sensible, spotted that I might be a cop but said nothing, like a sensible person. Not hungry to lynch them.]]

((I actually didn't remember this, so I went back looked through. This checks out.))

He turned away, addressing the rest of the crowd. "As for the purrloin... I was thinking of their behavior and the things they said last night and... I actually trust them. I... could be wrong, but I have a hunch. A hunch that I think is best left unsaid.

If Jackie is mafia then of course they'd still try to sway the vote to the innocent (unless they're both mafia and Jackie's role was more valuable). If Jackie is town and has a role that they feel is useful, then they'd probably want to protect themselves. I feel like there's several factors at play here that could mean it could be either way. After I finish tetra analysis I want to do a Jackie analysis. Don't know if I have time.

The only thing I want to address here is the role reveal thing, though it's relatively moot now. Revealing too early can be dangerous, yes, but if it looks like you will be voted out, please share. Especially if you're an info role. That way any info you DO have is out in the open and the mafia can't fake claim your role.

Jackie - I'd kind of gotten a vibe that they had some sort of info role before they confirmed. The cop claim lines u with that. I'm also very afraid of lynching the cop, if they are faking it. I don't think they are and would rather focus on more uncertain reads.

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Took a look at Seren. Lots of flavour and not many posts total, but... It feels a lot like the townplay I saw from Seren in 2nd Anni, according to my gut. Putting him at just above 'null' in my reads. Worth keeping an eye on, would consider voting if someone spots an actual scumtell, but I'm not seeing one.]]

[[So then, wait. Are you saying bus driver doesn't classify as power misinfo? Because like... There's no misinformation in that you did get the correct result... on the player that was swapped. Am I making any sense? Probably not. I hate this swapping shiz tbh. I have a hard enough time following who may have done what without it.]]

[[It's simply that I'd hoped that my results would be reliable, but alas, Deflector actually seems like a perfectly reasonable thing for the game in hindsight.]]

 

[Inkedust]

Mademoiselle looked over towards the clock and hummed, "Your time is running short however, in less than ten minutes if any leading vote occurs on anyone but the goomy, your time will be extended by 12 hours. If you do not wish for this to happen but intend to vote for anyone else, place your vote now."

-
CURRENT VOTE COUNT:​

2—ShiniGojira (HelloYellow17, Panoramic_Vacuum)

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[While looking at these posts, I saw the word 'mastermind' come up a few times. I believe that most events in mafia are best explained by large sets of simple decisions made by a dozen confused people, not convoluted strategies. I believe that it's quite likely we have 2-3 mafia, who might have poorly-aligned timezones and availability, and/or be inexperienced. 2-3 people is not a large cabal. The scumteam might feel rather on the back foot here! We don't win by finding the most intelligent players, but by finding the people who make questionable suggestions, or say one thing but do/mean another, or wiffle-waffle about nothing. Alas, most of the scumtells I've spotted have been Tetra's, and I've bought into this Deflector theory for the time being...]]

[[Tl;dr: the mafia aren't geniuses, they're randomly selected and probably just as panicky, if not more, than town. Also, the Deflector theory has to continue to hold water for Tetra to remain trustworthy.]]

 

[MintyMimix]

The Professor pondered the Yvetal's words. Could that mean...? It was worth a shot - assuming they were going by word of the law rather than spirit of the law. He blanched at the thought, but bit his tongue. If this didn't work, it would be the ultimate price.

"Please do not look deeper into this, but I do believe we have the opportunity 'game the system' here. Swift action is required, and we need to collectively look out for one another. I understand there are some soft suspicions on me, but few hard suspicions on others. Therefore, I will make an attempt to extend the time here. I pray that you have the sense to retract the votes shortly after should you agree to go through with this."

Vote: MintyMimix
@Inkedust

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"I don't think Goomy Litno is part of the team of killers! I think they'd have more to offer than just readlists if they had secret meetings with other players, and that someone would have said something earlier to protect them... In a really small game, letting another killer get sacrificed would be like letting yourself lose! Whoever the real killers are, I think there'd be resistance to sacrificing them from one of their teammates... And they haven't said anything really suspicious!"

Salem waved awkwardly to Empoleon Steven. "Do you not have any better ideas...?"

[[I won't be voting for ShinjiGojira without a reason better than 'they're only posting readlists'. I think they'd have workshopped their takes more if they had teammates. Let's have a different wagon, please. Will @Panoramic_Vacuum reconsider her vote?]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I don't know who is our best bet at this point. I am torn between Jackie and Pano's arguements for shini and how they haven't posted defends or done anything much, which could be newbie of either side. And not voting, because if they'd made readlists I would have expected to be able to drop a vote?

But again could be wrong...]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[The problem is everyone's plays feel towny it seems. I am inclined to consider voting shinji unless we have another reasonable target, but I'm around all night so I'll hold off.]]