[[ Okay, here's my thoughts on everything that's happened so far since the start of D2:
1) Let's start with Sike Saner's death. Don't have much to say here other than that it's a good thing nobody from Town died. Looking at the list of potential roles, her being a serial killer was pretty is likely. If this is true then the Mafia actually might have helped us here, since the chance of a serial killer eliminating town players is much greater than eliminating mafia players. Not sure why we only got one elimination on each night, but maybe she couldn't kill until after a certain amount of nights.
2) DW's claim to be a JOAT is an interesting one. If this is true then it would mean she's innocent. Swapping JackieYellow and Wind doesn't really seem that beneficial to the Mafia unless one of the two is Mafia, but I didn't really get that impression of either of them.
There is of course the chance the DW is lying. I'm not necessarily saying that this is true, but I at least wanna keep the option open. She claimed the role right after people concluded that there was a swap, which seemed a bit opportunistic to me. It's also a good way to obtain a "legitimate" status among the group after being suspected of being mafia the prior day.
That said, nobody else is claiming to have done the swap, so this could be wrong. On the other hand if there's a legit town Bus Driver (so not a JOAT) I can also imagine that this person doesn't wanna reveal himself. A town Bus Driver can almost be as annoying to the mafia as a doctor, so speaking up would make you a likely target. Hell, if DW
is mafia this can be even all be bait for the town Bus Driver to reveal himself.
3) Alright, and now onto the messages, which I think is the most interesting. Yesterday's messages didn't really give us much, but things are different here. From a first glance, there appear to be three Mailman at the moment:
1. The person sending unimportant stuff (messaged Starlight on N0 and Pano on N1)
2. The person sending "items" (messaged Free on N0 and tried to message Wind on N1, but ended up messaging JackieYellow instead)
3. The person claiming to not have sent anything on N0, and that there might be a parrot (tried to message JackieYellow on N1, but ended up messaging Wind instead)
It does seem a bit strange to me that there are three Mailman, so I'd like to present a different theory:
The messages so far have been sent by two Mailman, a Parrot, and an Absorber.
A Parrot is able to use the role of the target against him. So if a Parrot targets a Mailman, then the Parrot is allowed to send a message to the Mailman.
An Absorber is able to absorb roles that he got targeted with and use them on subsequent nights.
At first the Parrot theory seemed unlikely to me, since the people messaged on N0 are completely different than N1. This would make it impossible for a Parrot to have messaged someone on N0 and N1. However, with an Absorber in the mix the Parrot theory actually is possible! Basically on N0 a Mailman targeted the Absorber, while the Parrot also targeted a Mailman. Then on N1, two Mailman send out a message, with the third being sent by the Absorber.
This means one of two things:
1. Free is a Mailman, while Starlight is an Absorber
2. Free is an Absorber while Starlight is a Mailman
@Dragonfree @Starlight Aurate can both of you give me your thoughts on this? ]]