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Seventh Anniversary Mafia

aer

Bug feeder
Pronouns
they/them
Partners
  1. hawlucha
"Ugh, well. It sounds like it's coming down to one or the other. If it's not the horse, it has to be the clothghost. Do I think I'm talking to a townie or the demon? I shouldn't have ignored my results. Okay."
Vote Madeline @Inkedust
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
“If Madeline’s evil instead, then the mafia has to have left Elgyem alone N1 and poisoned Morgan instead, then poisoned Elgyem N2, then once again left Elgyem alone N3 and poisoned Morgan. And they’d have to have poisoned Morgan N3, because if the poisoner were dead, then Morgan’s unpoisoned result from N2 where Spectrier isn’t Demon contradicts her also unpoisoned result from N3 where either Elgyem or Spectrier is Demon, because in this scenario we’re assuming Elgyem is legit. I still don’t know why they would do this, if Madeline is Demon and they could easily have stopped letting Elgyem continue to get more incriminating reads on her.
[[This might be a stupid question but couldn’t this easily be explained by Morgan or Elgyem being Drunk? And the other poisoned on some nights nights? I’ve been operating on the assumption that I’ve been the Drunk all along, but I could have been poisoned N0 instead. Granted idk why anyone would target me first over more skilled players, but on the first night I could see scum just choosing randomly, since there’s no info for potential roles to go off of.

Have I mentioned how much I despise Drunk AND poisoning being a thing in the same game? Because I do. SO MUCH. :unquag:]]
 

JFought

Sloooowly writing...
Location
HCL
Pronouns
they/them
Partners
  1. jfought-sword
  2. jfought-blue
  3. deerling-summer
  4. charmeleon
  5. vulpix
  6. monferno
  7. herdier-oscar
  8. swoobat-benigno
  9. purrloin
"Hey this guys sounds suspicious to me! He's been watching us? We gotta get rid of him!"
Oscar turned his head up. "Spoken like a criminal! I find it is rather common for malefactors to shrink in my presence!"

It was either that, or more likely, instinctual intimidation. But the great detective was a 'mon of class, who would never give in to their baser impulses. The rattata had nothing to fear. Because I told myself I'd stop chasing smaller 'mon a long time ago. I don't think I snapped at him...

I can't figure out any reason scum!Chibi would be so willing to give up today other than their actual remaining scum partner is Phan and because we're all looking at Perse or aer, it's kind of a shoe in to get to EoL tomorrow.
[[The way I'm choosing to see it is, if Chibi is evil, you're not the demon, and so dying now buys time. In this scenario, whether it's today or tomorrow, the numbers work out so that town only has one chance to eliminate the demon correctly or they lose, and if you push to not vote for you, then you risk town choosing correctly on who the demon is today and losing the game. That risk still exists tomorrow, but buying time allows mafia to try and coordinate in the night to win the game D5, rather than being uncoordinated today, and so arguably, sacrificing yourself is less risky.

It's kind of hopium on my part but it makes sense. Basically every chance evil!Chibi had to argue their innocence has been stripped away from them, I'm not sure what else they could play that wouldn't involve some element of risk.]]

"My conscience is clear! According to my deductions, I am completely certain that the horses must be evil!"

Vote Spectrier @Inkedust
 

Inkedust

Harbinger of Sunrise
Location
Pokémon Square
Pronouns
she/her
Partners
  1. ninetales-inkedust
  2. solgaleo-inkedust
  3. xerneas
  4. zoroark-inkedust
  5. zoroark
  6. absol
  7. indeedee-f
9 hours remain in the day.
Spectrier: 4
- Spectrier (Chibi Pika)
- Morgan (Shiny Phantump)
- Rocky (Panoramic_Vacuum)
- Oscar (JFought)
Elgyem: 1
- Madeline (Persephone)
Madeline: 1
- Elgyem (aer)

- Watt (windskull)
- Rui (HelloYellow17)
- Dave (Dragonfree)
- Malachai (unrepentantAuthor)
- Odette (Sinderella)
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[This might be a stupid question but couldn’t this easily be explained by Morgan or Elgyem being Drunk? And the other poisoned on some nights nights? I’ve been operating on the assumption that I’ve been the Drunk all along, but I could have been poisoned N0 instead. Granted idk why anyone would target me first over more skilled players, but on the first night I could see scum just choosing randomly, since there’s no info for potential roles to go off of.

Have I mentioned how much I despise Drunk AND poisoning being a thing in the same game? Because I do. SO MUCH. :unquag:]]
"Mmmm, no no no no. Rocky ran scenarios where information roles were Drunk or Lying, and the way game play out, if you were Poisoned, then Spectrier must be Bad guy or is unreliable. Either way, is good to eliminate Spectrier at that point."

"Example. Your information no good, unreliable. Spectrier say you are Drunk. If you Poisoned instead, they would only get that result if they were Drunk or lying. If they were Drunk, they also got Malachai's claimed role correct. Drunk can get correct information, because flashcards say bastard information in play. But more likely Spectrier lying at that point."

He sunk a little. "Rocky agree, though. Do not like how much unreliable information is in game, and not just affected by player role, either."
 

Chibi Pika

Stay positive
Staff
Premium
Location
somewhere in spacetime
Pronouns
they/them
Partners
  1. pikachu-chibi
  2. lugia
  3. palkia
  4. lucario-shiny
  5. incineroar-starr
  6. grovyle-ralsen
Normal.png
"I wish my ability had been more useful. I hope this helps everyone find the demon..."

Normal.png
"Let it not be said that I do not honor my word. I doubt Noivern would have been so willing to fulfill the pact had I been the first to die between us."
 

Shiny Phantump

Through Dream, I Travel
Location
Hallownest
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. sylveon
  2. absol-mega
  3. silvally-psychic
  4. ninetales-phantump
  5. cosmog
  6. gallade-phantump
  7. ceruledge-phantump
  8. mismagius
Morgan giggled to herself. "Great, glad we've reached the point of collective insanity where we're not just heavily scrutinizing each other's actual or possible actions, but also writing alternate universe fan-fiction about each other and scrutinizing each other's hypothetical in timelines that never came to pass. Love that for us~"

if Madeline is Demon and they could easily have stopped letting Elgyem continue to get more incriminating reads on her.
[[I don't think this is that implausible? Killing Elegym would stop further reads but also strongly suggest they're town which locks in an anti-Maddie narrative, while this way you can call Elegym's alignment into question— It'd be working out decently well for them based on the current town sentiment, I think. Idk I'd love to get to say Perse is town and got a break from being forever scum but I'm not sure we can lock that in yet.]]
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
"Example. Your information no good, unreliable. Spectrier say you are Drunk. If you Poisoned instead, they would only get that result if they were Drunk or lying. If they were Drunk, they also got Malachai's claimed role correct. Drunk can get correct information, because flashcards say bastard information in play. But more likely Spectrier lying at that point."

Rui straightened up. “Oh! That makes sense! Thanks for explaining!” She fidgeted and nudged at the grass with her paw, only for it to pass through completely. Eugh. She was not a fan of having to adjust to a Pokémon body on top of being turned into a ghost. “That was probably obvious to everyone else. Maybe being Drunk is more literal than I thought! Haha…”

Gods, what a stupid joke. She let her laugh fizzle out into awkward silence and hoped nobody had the psychic ability to hear her internal shrieks of embarrassment.

[[Fr though thank you for spelling it out lol, brain is not firing on all cylinders rn haha]]
 

Dragonfree

Moderator
Staff
Premium
Location
Iceland
Pronouns
she/her/hers
Partners
  1. butterfree
  2. mightyena
  3. charizard
  4. scyther-mia
  5. vulpix
  6. slugma
  7. chinchou
  8. misdreavus
  9. meowth
[[Perks of being in Spain: realizing when I get up that it's not actually mafia EoD yet]]

[[This might be a stupid question but couldn’t this easily be explained by Morgan or Elgyem being Drunk? And the other poisoned on some nights nights? I’ve been operating on the assumption that I’ve been the Drunk all along, but I could have been poisoned N0 instead. Granted idk why anyone would target me first over more skilled players, but on the first night I could see scum just choosing randomly, since there’s no info for potential roles to go off of.

Have I mentioned how much I despise Drunk AND poisoning being a thing in the same game? Because I do. SO MUCH. :unquag:]]
"Well, in the Elgyem is mafia scenario obviously Elgyem was neither Drunk or poisoned at any point. Morgan could be Drunk, but that has basically the same relevance as Morgan being poisoned every night. Either way Morgan's results can't be trusted at all

"In the Madeline is mafia scenario, suppose Morgan is Drunk. Then Elgyem still seems to have been poisoned on N2 but not N1 or N3. Unless..." He squeezed his eyes shut with an exasperated groan. "Unless a poison victim might be correct at random, so even poisoned Elgyem still correctly finds Madeline as mafia sometimes. Oh my God. I guess. Nothing means anything. Okay. Game master voice, can you get over here and clarify? Can someone who's poisoned give a correct result?"

[[I don't think this is that implausible? Killing Elegym would stop further reads but also strongly suggest they're town which locks in an anti-Maddie narrative, while this way you can call Elegym's alignment into question— It'd be working out decently well for them based on the current town sentiment, I think. Idk I'd love to get to say Perse is town and got a break from being forever scum but I'm not sure we can lock that in yet.]]
"I didn't mean killing Elgyem, I meant poisoning Elgyem. Nobody trusted your results at face value anyway when you were so likely to be poisoned and your results harder to compare day to day, while Elgyem was always going to get results on Madeline; why keep letting Madeline get redchecked? It's pretty fucking conspicuous when she gets checked repeatedly. But, of course, if Elgyem will just redcheck Madeline half the time anyway when poisoned, then all of that goes out the window and no information means anything. God."
 
D4 – END New

Inkedust

Harbinger of Sunrise
Location
Pokémon Square
Pronouns
she/her
Partners
  1. ninetales-inkedust
  2. solgaleo-inkedust
  3. xerneas
  4. zoroark-inkedust
  5. zoroark
  6. absol
  7. indeedee-f
For a fair amount of the day, Zevya appeared to be rather distracted. The squirtle has appeared to pull her aside to speak of a private matter and when they walked around the branches, Hareta was gone and the herdier, Oscar had taken his place. Not that she'd missed much anyway. Discussion appeared to be more focused on what would happen the next day as it appeared that everyone intended to remain true to their promise of clearing the right side of the field once and for all.

Votes were cast swiftly, and decisively. The horse even seemed to accept their fate, placing a vote on themselves with a frigid decisiveness. Too late to change their mind now.

While the emera was being shattered, Zevya took a quick headcount and clicked her tongue. "Looks like it's getting down to the wire." She rolled her shoulders and looked up at the sky – shining leaves that sparkled like the stars on a clear night. She smiled. "Could go either way, so think long and hard about what you wanna do tomorrow before bed, yeah?"

With a grin and a wave, the zoroark vanished into the darkness.


honse.png
Spectrier (Chibi Pika) was Eliminated
and...

THE GAME CONTINUES
Spectrier: 4
- Spectrier (Chibi Pika)
- Rocky (Panoramic_Vacuum)
- Morgan (Shiny Phantump)
- Oscar (JFought)

Elgyem: 1
- Madeline (Persephone)

Madeline: 1
- Elgyem (aer)

- Watt (windskull)
- Rui (HelloYellow17)
- Dave (Dragonfree)
- Malachai (unrepentantAuthor)
- Odette (Sinderella)


NIGHT FOUR HAS BEGUN

 
D5 – START New

Inkedust

Harbinger of Sunrise
Location
Pokémon Square
Pronouns
she/her
Partners
  1. ninetales-inkedust
  2. solgaleo-inkedust
  3. xerneas
  4. zoroark-inkedust
  5. zoroark
  6. absol
  7. indeedee-f
When light came, everyone would find Zevya sitting cross-legged in the middle of the grove, her gaze intense. It seemed that she'd been waiting for this moment for a long time. She said nothing, only giving an acknowledging glance towards an emeraless Oscar as everyone stepped into position.

Between that and the greatly reduced number of powers in play, the message was clear: It was do or die for both sides.

No matter what, it was going to end here and now. If there was any time to use those ghost votes...

But which side would come out on top? Who would be the first to falter?

Only the players themselves could determine that, but could they stick to their convictions or would they be swayed at the very last moment?

The zoroark smiled and sat back, waiting for the answer.


1779955779582.png
OSCAR (JFOUGHT) WAS ELIMINATED IN THE NIGHT

DAY FIVE HAS BEGUN



*To prevent the game from idling, if a vote train forms with an overwhelming majority within the first 24 hours of the day and little discussion follows, the day will end 24 hours early (Fri 9am UTC). Otherwise, the day will end at the scheduled time.
 

aer

Bug feeder
Pronouns
they/them
Partners
  1. hawlucha
N0: 0. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be Rui/Hareta) who are evil).
N1: 1. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be Madeline/Hareta) who are evil).
N2: 0. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be Madeline/Hareta) who are evil).
N3: 1. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be Madeline/Hareta) who are evil).
N4: 1. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be Madeline/Rocky) who are evil).

Madeline is the Demon. We executed the poisoner Chibi Pika last night, who got me N2. Vote: Madeline @Inkedust
 

unrepentantAuthor

A cat that writes stories.
Location
UK
Pronouns
they/she
Partners
  1. purrloin-salem
  2. sneasel-dusk
  3. luz-companion
  4. brisa-companion
  5. meowth-laura
  6. delphox-jesse
  7. mewtwo
  8. zeraora
Malachai eyed his shattered emera with disaste, then raised his head to nod curtly to his fellow players.

"This day phase is sure to be our last," he declared, solemnly. "There can only be a solitary Demon remaining, else the game would have ended already. Yet, if should fail to eliminate them, they shall kill again tonight, bringing us to parity, and ending the game in an Evil victory. We must Eliminate Or Lose, everyone."

He eyed the two primary suspects with a cold expression.

"We must decide which of Madeline and Elgyem we most suspect of deceiving us. Then finish them. I truly believe it can only be one of them..."

Privately, he suspected Elgyem more than Madeline, but until he could articulate why, and stress-test his assumptions, he would bide his time.
 

Shiny Phantump

Through Dream, I Travel
Location
Hallownest
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. sylveon
  2. absol-mega
  3. silvally-psychic
  4. ninetales-phantump
  5. cosmog
  6. gallade-phantump
  7. ceruledge-phantump
  8. mismagius
Morgan held up the tendril with her looplet affixed to it for inspection. It was, miraculously, intact. She gave it a little kiss, just for dramatic effect. The amount of people openly declaring trust in her should have been a death sentence— It wasn't everyone, but it was enough people to swing a vote. If they thought she was going to read her target correctly then...

"Should've killed me while you had the chance~"

There was a moment where it felt like her only paths to victory were an unforced error on the part of her enemies, or just hoping they'd already guessed the right person yesterday without clear information. But she hated leaving things up to chance. She wanted to wake up with a final result and conviction backing up her vote.

"In fact, I was pretty worried about waking up a bit extra dead today. I spent a lot of yesterday thinking about what to do about that. And of course, I couldn't help but think about who I should be inspecting, just to make sure that I wouldn't fuck it up on the off chance I did wake up."

[[Honestly, am I really sure what I'm about to say is what happened? Not at all. But I put too much time into overthinking things during the last game day, and it'd be fun if I'm right, so let me lightyagamipost for moment. It's enrichment for me. You can skip to the redcheck if you want, I won't judge you.]]

"If this is a scenario where I'd greencheck one suspect, and redcheck the other, then not only am I more or less certain to die but also there'd be no need to think about who to target: Even if I woke up, either yes or a no check one narrows my suspect pool down to one person. So, I discarded that possibility. I assumed that, if I woke with my emera at all, it would probably mean that the two remaining players were my false demon and the true demon. So I started reverse-engineering what would've had to be true for that to come to pass, and I found one scenario that felt... more likely than I'd expected."

She touched a tendril to her chin thoughtfully, even though she'd actually finished thinking about all this yesterday.

"Even ignoring the fact that I probably was not one of the players the evils were most scared of, since nobody knew my guardian or I had played anything like this before, the odds of my redcheck on Maddie night zero being due to poison were incredibly low relative to it being due to one of the two being my false positive." [[If we assume both players next to me are town, which we are for the possibility that Maddie or Watt was my false positive, then it's ~28%.]]

"The redcheck on Elegym the night before we killed the horse being due to an poisoned false positive — when we know Elegym would've gotten true info on Maddie while the poisoner'd be alive and know to be on our asses — seem much lower. Especially because we more or less know that the Horse isn't my false redcheck. If Maddie's mafia, I'd sooner believe I was poisoned into that redcheck and the false positive is someone I never bothered to look at— but if that was true, then I should be dead."

And yet, here she stood. Alive.

"Drake, who'd have to be the poisoner in an Elegymafia scenario for the accuracy of my endgame results to make any sense, would have to poison me on his last night alive, otherwise she's clearly a normal greencheck and Watt'd be the false positive. Since they'd know Maddie wasn't actually the demon, me reporting green while poisoned would look a lot like I was poisoned out of seeing my false positive, although there's also some unknown, presumably much smaller chance that it was Watt all along and I just lucked into true info. The big caveat is the same one from last time, when I speculated I was poisoned out of registering Maddie as the demon for real: They'd need to have noticed that I was claiming something day 1. But you know what? For an Elegymafia, arguing that someone there picked up on what I was saying..."
I feel like I've been wanting to /w whisper to Morgan this entire game.
"...is actually not so hard as it is for a Madelafia. Plus, we don't have to ask why the poisoner would've hit me instead of Elegym! That'd be friendly fire for them~"

[[Obviously, evils lie, and that statement being untrue was on the table. But as someone with too much scum experience, these kinds of smaller and less consequential social-emotional things are usually spontaneous and grounded in real feelings, from my experience at least It's not like there'd be any way to forsee this becoming a plot point at ELo.]]

"It felt like a hell of a long shot for every single one of those things to be true, but it was the only shot I could at survival, and I really wanted that last piece of info. So I went all-in~ Luckily, I'd already recanted my trust in Madeline for real, all the follow-up I had to do was..."
I do think we really ought to be investigating the possibility of Madeline being the demon more heavily.
I'd love to get to say Perse is town
"...suggest I was planning to try to check Maddie, and then just in case they weren't playing attention the first time, double down by — shortly before the end of the day in hopes it'd stop any of you lovely folks from pointing out what a bad idea this was — suggesting I really wanted to greencheck her. Then, just maybe, an Elegymafia seeing the amount of people declaring they wanted to vote for her next would decide that hoping I would redcheck Maddie was their best odds of changing the narrative against them."

"Odds were, my hopes would be vapourized upon contact with reality— The series of events required for the evils to believe Maddie was my false positive, the expectation I'd actually examine her and wasn't fucking with them, and the hunger for that redcheck required to deem it worth the risk would all have to align perfectly..." [[Which is why, like I said before, I'm still not actually as sure as I'm having Morgan act that this is exactly what happened and am yagamiposting just because I put way too much time into overthinking this yesterday and want to blather on about it.]]

She shot Elegym the widest grin she'd offered anyone so far. "...But perhaps I'm in luck. 'Cause I did wake up today. And I did it with a redcheck on Elegym~"

@Inkedust VOTE: ELEGYM / AER

[[Anyway postscript time: There are some other scenarios here which I cut for time (by god this is too long already) bc they all seem like insane things to me, mostly involving 'what if I'm drunk and they know this and x/y/z wild reach' stuff. One of them being that Rocky was my second target, but I decided that the 5 redchecks on people who'd be town across two people and also me greenchecking them N1 was far too unlikely to worry about— the risks of picking Odette or whoever and contaminating things with a false positive on her if the Mafia let me wake up for reasons I don't understand seemed far greater than Rockyafia and if we suspect my results are bunk we'd still prob just kill Maddie and not Rocky lol.

Hilariously, even if this is all true, it almost certainly does nothing to change the outcome of the game since we were leaning against aer anyway. I guess it gives me peace of mind and reduces my stress levels over the next 48 hours, and that's not nothing.

Regardless, in the increasingly likely event that aer is scum, I think they played a fantastic game to be proud of. They were one of my most trusted soft reads for a good chunk of the game and also would also have had me way too scared of poison for way too long, and I was uncertain of my reads on the final suspects until my results came in tonight. And if it's not they clearly played an excellent game too.
]]
 

unrepentantAuthor

A cat that writes stories.
Location
UK
Pronouns
they/she
Partners
  1. purrloin-salem
  2. sneasel-dusk
  3. luz-companion
  4. brisa-companion
  5. meowth-laura
  6. delphox-jesse
  7. mewtwo
  8. zeraora
Malachai smiled thinly.

"Given the state of play, I did anticipate that Morgan would check Elgyem. I'm encouraged by the guilty result that aligns with my gut feeling... I'll give it another moment before I commit, just to be sure, but I believe I shall vote for the little alien today. Let us hope we are correct."
 

JFought

Sloooowly writing...
Location
HCL
Pronouns
they/them
Partners
  1. jfought-sword
  2. jfought-blue
  3. deerling-summer
  4. charmeleon
  5. vulpix
  6. monferno
  7. herdier-oscar
  8. swoobat-benigno
  9. purrloin
1779955779582.png

OSCAR (JFOUGHT) WAS ELIMINATED IN THE NIGHT
"WHAT?!"

"But I just got h-!" Oscar abruptly sneezed, then sat straight and brushed his nose. "I-I mean, I see the demon has made a grave mistake! I knew I was correct not to openly analyze their best move, and thus will it into existence. Why, the entire reason I involved myself was because I knew a confirmed-innocent great detective would be too tempting of a target to eliminate, allowing Morgan to retrieve the information necessary to solve the game!"

The great detective held his head high, as if assured that everything had definitely gone exactly according to his plan. "I will allow everyone to speak their mind before I vote, but let it be known that I suspected Elygem from the moment they claimed Madeline was evil on Day Three. I am certain that the horses are their partner, and I shall allow the Poisoner to say their piece before I claim them too. I suggest they choose their words carefully if they wish to argue their way out of this position!"

[[Oscar's bullshitting. Anyway, it seems the most useful thing I did for town was instantly die lmao. I did figure Morgan was the better target, but didn't want to risk suggesting that yesterday, since I noticed that no one was seriously considering it as a possibility, which meant there was a possibility it wouldn't happen. Seems I was right to keep quiet! But that does make me curious as to scum team's strategy here.]]
 
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