Morgan held up the tendril with her looplet affixed to it for inspection. It was,
miraculously, intact. She gave it a little kiss, just for dramatic effect. The amount of people openly declaring trust in her should have been a death sentence— It wasn't
everyone, but it was enough people to swing a vote. If they thought she was going to read her target correctly then...
"Should've killed me while you had the chance~"
There was a moment where it felt like her only paths to victory were an unforced error on the part of her enemies, or just hoping they'd already guessed the right person yesterday without clear information. But she
hated leaving things up to chance. She wanted to wake up with a final result and
conviction backing up her vote.
"In fact, I was pretty worried about waking up a bit extra dead today. I spent a lot of yesterday thinking about what to do about that. And of course, I couldn't help but think about who I should be inspecting, just to make sure that I wouldn't fuck it up on the off chance I did wake up."
[[
Honestly, am I really sure what I'm about to say is what happened? Not at all. But I put too much time into overthinking things during the last game day, and it'd be fun if I'm right, so let me lightyagamipost for moment. It's enrichment for me. You can skip to the redcheck if you want, I won't judge you.]]
"If this is a scenario where I'd greencheck one suspect, and redcheck the other, then not only am I more or less certain to die but also there'd be no need to think about who to target: Even if I woke up, either yes or a no check one narrows my suspect pool down to one person. So, I discarded that possibility. I assumed that, if I woke with my emera at all, it would probably mean that the two remaining players were my false demon and the true demon. So I started reverse-engineering what would've had to be true for that to come to pass, and I found one scenario that felt... more likely than I'd expected."
She touched a tendril to her chin thoughtfully, even though she'd actually finished thinking about all this yesterday.
"Even ignoring the fact that I probably was
not one of the players the evils were most scared of, since nobody knew my guardian or I had played anything like this before, the odds of my redcheck on Maddie night zero being due to poison were incredibly low relative to it being due to one of the two being my false positive." [[
If we assume both players next to me are town, which we are for the possibility that Maddie or Watt was my false positive, then it's ~28%.]]
"The redcheck on Elegym the night before we killed the horse being due to an poisoned false positive — when we know Elegym would've gotten true info on Maddie while the poisoner'd be alive and know to be on our asses — seem much lower. Especially because we more or less know that the Horse isn't my false redcheck. If Maddie's mafia, I'd sooner believe I was
poisoned into that redcheck and the false positive is someone I never bothered to look at— but if that was true, then I
should be dead."
And yet, here she stood.
Alive.
"Drake, who'd have to be the poisoner in an Elegymafia scenario for the accuracy of my endgame results to make any sense, would have to poison me on his last night alive, otherwise she's clearly a normal greencheck and Watt'd be the false positive. Since they'd know Maddie wasn't actually the demon, me reporting green while poisoned would look
a lot like I was poisoned out of seeing my false positive, although there's also some unknown, presumably much smaller chance that it was Watt all along and I just lucked into true info. The big caveat is the same one from last time, when I speculated I was poisoned out of registering Maddie as the demon for real: They'd need to have
noticed that I was claiming
something day 1. But you know what? For an Elegymafia, arguing that someone there picked up on what I was saying..."
I feel like I've been wanting to /w whisper to Morgan this entire game.
"...is actually not so hard as it is for a Madelafia. Plus, we don't have to ask why the poisoner would've hit me instead of Elegym! That'd be friendly fire for them~"
[[
Obviously, evils lie, and that statement being untrue was on the table. But as someone with too much scum experience, these kinds of smaller and less consequential social-emotional things are usually spontaneous and grounded in real feelings, from my experience at least It's not like there'd be any way to forsee this becoming a plot point at ELo.]]
"It felt like a hell of a long shot for every single one of those things to be true, but it was the
only shot I could at survival, and I
really wanted that last piece of info. So I went all-in~ Luckily, I'd already recanted my trust in Madeline for real, all the follow-up I had to do was..."
I do think we really ought to be investigating the possibility of Madeline being the demon more heavily.
I'd love to get to say Perse is town
"...suggest I was planning to try to check Maddie, and then just in case they weren't playing attention the first time, double down by — shortly before the end of the day in hopes it'd stop any of you lovely folks from pointing out what a bad idea this was — suggesting I really wanted to
greencheck her. Then,
just maybe, an Elegymafia seeing the amount of people declaring they wanted to vote for her next would decide that hoping I would redcheck Maddie was their best odds of changing the narrative against them."
"Odds were, my hopes would be vapourized upon contact with reality— The series of events required for the evils to believe Maddie was my false positive, the expectation I'd actually examine her and wasn't fucking with them, and the hunger for that redcheck required to deem it worth the risk would all have to align perfectly..." [[
Which is why, like I said before, I'm still not actually as sure as I'm having Morgan act that this is exactly what happened and am yagamiposting just because I put way too much time into overthinking this yesterday and want to blather on about it.]]
She shot Elegym the widest grin she'd offered anyone so far. "...But perhaps I'm in luck. 'Cause I
did wake up today. And I did it with a redcheck on Elegym~"
@Inkedust VOTE: ELEGYM / AER
[[
Anyway postscript time: There are some other scenarios here which I cut for time (by god this is too long already) bc they all seem like insane things to me, mostly involving 'what if I'm drunk and they know this and x/y/z wild reach' stuff. One of them being that Rocky was my second target, but I decided that the 5 redchecks on people who'd be town across two people and also me greenchecking them N1 was far too unlikely to worry about— the risks of picking Odette or whoever and contaminating things with a false positive on her if the Mafia let me wake up for reasons I don't understand seemed far greater than Rockyafia and if we suspect my results are bunk we'd still prob just kill Maddie and not Rocky lol.
Hilariously, even if this is all true, it almost certainly does nothing to change the outcome of the game since we were leaning against aer anyway. I guess it gives me peace of mind and reduces my stress levels over the next 48 hours, and that's not nothing.
Regardless, in the increasingly likely event that aer is scum, I think they played a fantastic game to be proud of. They were one of my most trusted soft reads for a good chunk of the game and also would also have had me way too scared of poison for way too long, and I was uncertain of my reads on the final suspects until my results came in tonight. And if it's not they clearly played an excellent game too.]]