Oscar nodded to Malachai. "I appreciate your concern. However, I am fully aware of the rules of this game. In fact, while I may only join now, I have been spectating since it's beginning!"
Oscar's confidence felt hollow without Benigno by his side to give it substance. But this group couldn't know that.
Just speak with conviction: the game is close to solved by this point anyway.
The great detective held his head high and addressed the horse next. "And of course I am innocent! I am the esteemed, Great Detective Oscar! And I am here to utilize my vaunted deductive reasoning skills to relieve you all of the burden of solving this mystery!"
[[Hi, I'm here to sub in for Zdr and save the game from an EoL scenario! No need to onboard me, as Oscar said, I've been spectating this game from the beginning and am already like, super invested lol. To just run through my suspicion table real quick:
Drake, Odette, and Watt are confirmed Town, Rocky may as well be confirmed Butler, so that just leaves...
| Hareta, now Oscar (me!) | I was already under the impression they were Hard Town while spectating, and it goes without saying that impression hasn't changed! The Washerwoman claim was too strong and nothing about their behavior felt evil. Since I didn't suspect them to begin with, when I speak, I am speaking from the perspective I possessed as a spectator watching the game, and in regards to their innocence, I can only hope that everyone can continue to trust precedent on this. |
| Morgan (Shiny Phantump) | Hard Town. Frankly, the only way I see Morgan possibly being evil is if she's the demon with Madeline as Poisoner, and there's so much wrong with even that. Their play has been consistently Town even in situations where playing town would be bad for mafia (such as breaking the tie yesterday). I won't discount the possibility, I just feel like the stars would have to be aligned to make it true, starting with Watt's info being wrong and getting crazier from there. |
| Drake (Flygon) and Rui (HellowYellow | One is scum. Like everyone else, I believe our first dead mafia is either Drake or Rui. I think they're both equally likely, and at this point in the game I also don't think it matters which one it is anymore (except for arguing, like, very specific scenarios. They're mostly interchangeable). Drake being evil opens up the possibility for Drunk!Rui, but that's basically the only difference outside of analyzing their plays and trying to figure out likelihoods from that. Personally I have more sus on Drake then Rui, Rui hasn't really pinged to me as super evil so far, but I'm not discounting it if I think it makes more sense. |
| Malachai (uA) | Neutral. I was pretty convinced of their guilt Day 2 but the recent read by the horses changed things. I think voting them out actually worked out in town's favor overall, since that move by Morgan plus subsequent call from Spectrier helped to limit the possibility space for scum teams (which we wouldn't have gotten if Chibi had died). Now, there are still a few possibilities for evil!Malachai, but their guilt is much less likely overall and hinges on things like drunk!Spectrier. And if they are evil, well, they're dead lol. |
| Spectrier (Chibi Pika) | Most likely scum. The only likely scenario where they aren't scum is if they're the drunk. But since all the most likely scum teams at this point include them, I kind of have to assume their guilt. I definitely don't think they're the demon, though. If Spectrier is the demon, then Morgan wasn't poisoned. But if Morgan wasn't poisoned, then Elygem must have been. But if Elygem was poisoned, then Madeline is the Poisoner, and just poisoned Elygem to point a finger at herself. Which isn't an invalid play if you're just trying to prolong the game, but it would certainly be something! And we're voting Chibi out regardless, so. |
| Madeline (Persephone) and Elygem (Aer) | One is the demon. I agree with everyone on this, it seems pretty clear at this point. Madeline has gotten pinged as evil quite a few times, and obviously that would make most sense if she is, though it would require a poisoner to have been in play alongside her for most of the game. Personally, I think Elygem is more likely, just because it seems... neater, I guess? There were a few suspicious plays, but what it really comes down to is that the possible scum teams with a Demon!Elygem in it just make more intuitive sense to me with the way the game has been played than the ones that don't. Will probably elaborate later but am tired and I mostly just need to get this post out to get my foot in the door and indicate where I lean rn. |
[[Also I'd like to say, I had been planning to come in and point out that if we assume Elygem is the demon, the poisoner is most likely dead, but it looks like Phan beat me to the punch, I took waaaay too long to make this post lol. Narrowing the scum teams down was actually most of what I was thinking about offering here, so I'd just like to corroborate those claims and say that that I think Demon!Maddie/Poisoner!Spectrier/Who!Cares and Demon!Elygem/SW!Spectrier/Dead!Poisoner are the most likely scum teams, with most other possibilities relying on ambiguity from things like whoever the drunk is, or unlikelihoods like Elygem and Madeline being on a team together.]]
[[To comment on what the GM just said, if drunk's info could be entirely random, that makes Town!Chibi substantially less likely, right? If we assume Chibi is innocent but not drunk, off the top of my head that would only leave Demon!Elygem/Morgan, Demon!Elygem/Madeline, and Demon!Morgan/Madeline as valid scum pairs, I think. All of which are tough to argue for.]]
