Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Shiny Phantump]

[[I feel like the main takeaway here is "phan has to hedge all of her statements more" and like okay that's something I'm working on now bc it's bit me in the ass a few times. I mostly figured it'd be fine bc I expect people to take each other with a grain of salt but I've seen the light and the problems that can come with overstatement of confidence. Is that a scumread? I have almost no town experience (esp early this game when it was just bastardafia, even my irl clocktower experience skews scum I rolled imp instantly bc that's just my luck.)]]

I understand that, but my whole reason for pointing this out is why are we assuming that it was Elgyem that got poisoned and not Phan, hence why I'm asking if I just completely glossed over something?

"Augh, did you sleep though yesterday?" [[Morgan's being rude. No judgement from me. We're on page 25 already there's a lot going on.]] "We did a lot of talking about me being poisoned night one. It was my main thesis for the day. It went poorly. Now we're pretty sure that it isn't the case, and I was poisoned night zero if at all... and maybe tonight, depending on how you feel about the horse."

I missed whatever the warning shot was

"Although they apparently didn't notice me voting for them for a bit last night, which is interesting."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Ahhhhh that's where I got twisted, thanks for clarifying!]]

yw <3

 

[Sinderella]

"Augh, did you sleep though yesterday?" [[Morgan's being rude. No judgement from me. We're on page 25 already there's a lot going on.]] "We did a lot of talking about me being poisoned night one. It was my main thesis for the day. It went poorly. Now we're pretty sure that it isn't the case, and I was poisoned night zero if at all... and maybe tonight, depending on how you feel about the horse."

[[No that's a valid question for her to ask, and the answer is yes and I'm just waking up

Right I KNOW that was your thesis for the day. I guess where my brain is getting so fried is that everyone's like "well I know for a FACT that X got poisoned" and "I know for a fact that Y is Drunk" (obv I am exaggerating here but you get the idea) when.......we don't?? Like simply put I cannot trust a goddamn thing any of y'all say because the points are contradicting each other and not, and reading everyone being like P SURE IT'S NOT THE CASE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED has me like.............WE DON'T KNOW THAT CHAT. But that's also the point of the game obv, it's a matter of who is appearing more trustworthy around those claims (I promise I have a high IQ like honest to god)

I mean tbf I was squinting at Aer/Elgyem from the beginning because of the way their Empath reveal came out and everyone got on me for still dogging them, so if it turns out that they're lying after all of this, I will accept both my laurels and my crow.

Honse and Bigbat are the next two I need to look at but I admittedly fried all of my synapses combing back all morning so that's going to be for later, but I might only have time to do one. It will probably be Chibi.]]

"Although they apparently didn't notice me voting for them for a bit last night, which is interesting."

[[.....it's actually funny that they missed that you were gunning for them because I caught that, and I am fucking notorious for missing in-thread hints.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

I think Phan favours high-info play and is incautious

[[While this is true of me even from a Clocktower perspective, I like info bc I don't trust my social/soft reading skills, I also think Clocktower privileges informed gamestates more than Mafia— unique roles with guaranteed alignments in an open setup alone can be powerful deductive tool, and poison/drunkeness encourages collating multiple data points. D1 massclaim is niche but viable, while insane in Mafia. D1 no claims is really fucking scary, but normal in Mafia.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[Also need to make it clear I didn't expect anybody to read all of that, it was for me to break everything down, so don't get your knickers twisted about it at first glance ]]

"No, this good! Is helpful! Rocky will read. Flashcards boring, read them too many times. This new, useful. Good good good."

 

[aer]

[[Because if Tetra is scum, scumteam already knew I had to be Ravenkeeper. There literally weren't any other things I could be! The only way scum wouldn't know is if Tetra was town and kept her role secret. Which she didn't, anyway. Which I was expecting her to do if she was scum.

So the logic here is that if Tetra is Mafia, the Mafia would have known the Noivern was the Ravenskeeper? Why not Librarian or Soldier?

 

[Dragonfree]

Dave sighed, looking at Odette. "No offense, but I think you're a down in a tunnel. A lot of what you're pointing to is just Morgan changing her mind in light of new relevant information, which is generally a good thing.

"I have trouble believing Morgan is scum because of how yesterday played out. If you're going to lie about being an inforole with an incriminating read on somebody, why in fuck's name would you do it like that? Not just "I got an incriminating read", but "I got an incriminating read yesterday, and then I did another read today but actually I got a negative result but actually that's definitely because I got poisoned, and now I'm going to act for all intents and purposes like this was total mechanical confirmation"? Why the fuck would you even think of that? If you want to get your target executed, then you just say you got an incriminating result today instead of cooking up this whole scenario where you got it yesterday and your result today was actually negative; if you really want the plausible deniability of maybe you were poisoned if town ends up confirming your target was innocent, then you probably don't stand there for 80% of the day confidently explaining your results mechanically confirm your target is the Demon. You want galaxy brain scum strats, Morgan's play is some of the galaxy-brainiest shit I've ever seen. If she made up all that as scum, I'd be amazed."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

So the logic here is that if Tetra is Mafia, the Mafia would have known the Noivern was the Ravenskeeper? Why not Librarian or Soldier?

Morgan winked at the Elegym. "Quite simple: Librarian is a start of game info role, and would have claimed early into the game. Soldier could contest the idea that the dog's Monk power blocked the kill, and both players had already tacitly accepted this fact. Especially the Noivern, who had explicitly said they couldn't contest the Monk claim with a Soldier or Monk claim of his own."

Morgan was getting tired of this back and forth on subjects that weren't going to affect her decision. [[This is not an ooc request for people to not discuss things I don't feel effect my choices right now, of course.]] She was gonna have to vote, and do it sometime soon. (Rocky hadn't managed to vote yet, either. Did he need to press his voting buddy to act? He hadn't even told them who it was yet.)

"Regardless, I have to decide whether to point the fing— point a tendril at Mal or the Horse tonight. Theoretically, Mal and then Horse gives us one more read, one on Mal's emera, as dubious as that info may be. But I just find that the Horse's explanation of what'd have to be true for them to be good and who we should vote for if that's the case... so deeply impersuasive. Meanwhile, as much as I misread Mal as a power role, their reasoning seems to, well, bear scrutiny as they might say and I respect the fact that they didn't do what an evil Mal could have to cause more problems yesterday. It's not a lock, I'm open to persuasion, but for now..."

@Inkedust VOTE: SPECTRIER aka GLASTRIER / CHIBI PIKA

[[Chibi, if you wanna defend yourself then my #1 tip for an angle would be that I'm really curious on your thoughts on Malachai, since I consider them a much more plausible evil than Madeline right now.]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[[Also I voted Rui D1 because I thought she was scum because her intel got Watt killed. Which might be because Watt was evil? ... but, no, that couldn't have happened, because Watt has to be innocent because Watt was killed by the Virgin, a sure sign of Virginity I mean Innocence. So then Phan had to have got an evil result for Mimikyu, or was poisoned, or was drunk, or was lying. But if Phan was drunk, then Rui couldn't have been. But if Rui is drunk, then Phan had to be poisoned. Or lying. But there's probably no spy, which would mean that Elgyem wasn't poisoned N0, because then Hareta and Rui wouldn't have been innocent.]]

"Hang on, I'm not following. You yourself got a result saying Rui was innocent on N0. Now you're saying you ended up voting for Rui on D1 because her intel got somebody killed, because of some chain of logic revolving around Morgan being poisoned? But from your point of view, the only way Rui could be evil was if you had been poisoned or drunk. What are you talking about?"

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

(Rocky hadn't managed to vote yet, either. Did he need to press his voting buddy to act? He hadn't even told them who it was yet.)

There came the sound of stomping and an indignant screech. "Rocky vote! Right at top of page! Morgan ask about Odette last sleep, Rocky think maybe he need to ask Morgan about her last sleep, instead."

Rocky glared hard at his own diagrams, scribbled and scribbled-over-again as they were, then grunted and stamped the ground once. Hard.

"Rocky make choice. Rocky vote."

Vote Malachai @Inkedust

[[Boop, right here, top of page 24. See reasoning behind it in the previous post, last of page 23 :) ]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[oop my b]]

 

[aer]

Did he need to press his voting buddy to act? He hadn't even told them who it was yet.)

[[Isn't it Dave?? ... wait I remembered Rocky picks a new one each night.]]

"Hang on, I'm not following. You yourself got a result saying Rui was innocent on N0. Now you're saying you ended up voting for Rui on D1 because her intel got somebody killed, because of some chain of logic revolving around Morgan being poisoned? But from your point of view, the only way Rui could be evil was if you had been poisoned or drunk. What are you talking about?"

[[No, I'm trying to understand the purported version of Morgan's night actions in accordance with my own. My own information N0 was that there were 0 evils out of Rui/Hareta, which I believe is true (Rui/Hareta are innocent). If Rui got someone killed, that was because she was either poisoned or intentionally acting/Spy, which is a role would have set up to a D1 accusation of this kind very well, or the Drunk which was my later conclusion. I still feel like Drunk is more likely than Spy given how both Hareta and Watt's information matched up with each other to immediately exonerate Watt and make Rui (and thus me, because I corroborated her) look guilty. Like I really probably should've not showed up at the end of D1 while skipping the day discussion that could've gotten me executed for the same reasons people were voting Rui for, based on how many people are side-eyeing me because of it if I were playing ideally.

Either way I come from Mafialands where a vote by itself doesn't mean that much, so I'm still like :? that it's a thing people keep bringing up. I don't mind your confusion, that paragraph sucked for me to write too.]]

"I have trouble believing Morgan is scum because of how yesterday played out. If you're going to lie about being an inforole with an incriminating read on somebody, why in fuck's name would you do it like that? Not just "I got an incriminating read", but "I got an incriminating read yesterday, and then I did another read today but actually I got a negative result but actually that's definitely because I got poisoned, and now I'm going to act for all intents and purposes like this was total mechanical confirmation"? Why the fuck would you even think of that? If you want to get your target executed, then you just say you got an incriminating result today instead of cooking up this whole scenario where you got it yesterday and your result today was actually negative; if you really want the plausible deniability of maybe you were poisoned if town ends up confirming your target was innocent, then you probably don't stand there for 80% of the day confidently explaining your results mechanically confirm your target is the Demon. You want galaxy brain scum strats, Morgan's play is some of the galaxy-brainiest shit I've ever seen. If she made up all that as scum, I'd be amazed."

I will believe this because I still think that Morgan voting/implying someone is guilty because they checked as innocent is also really convoluted and switched targets a lot at the end of the day. Like all the daytime stuff doesn't matter if at the end of the day we switched to a better target, right? Now basically no one thinks Madeline is the Demon despite all of yesterday...

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

So the logic here is that if Tetra is Mafia, the Mafia would have known the Noivern was the Ravenskeeper? Why not Librarian or Soldier?

[[i think someone already covered this but: if I was Librarian I would've revealed my info early, and if I was soldier I'd be sussing Free. I even already said I wasn't -- and that nobody else could be.]]

Morgan's play is some of the galaxy-brainiest shit I've ever seen. If she made up all that as scum, I'd be amazed."

"This is, essentially, why I am reluctant to believe in the ghost's guilt," purred Malachai. "Although if the horse is not our demon, she will be one of only three candidates I could choose between tomorrow..."

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[Nah, still sus of them, specifically bc they (seem to be?) hypothesizing that neither/none of us are poisoned.]]

Glastrier shook its head. "I stated that I believed Elgyem was poisoned last night, not no-one."

"Although they apparently didn't notice me voting for them for a bit last night, which is interesting."

[[Ohh, you meant the vote, I wasn't connecting the vote to your choice of inspection targets, but also I have no idea how the strategy of playing clairvoyant works wrt navigating poison and whether it's better to try to use it to rule out null reads vs going after suspects.]]

"I have trouble believing Morgan is scum because of how yesterday played out. If you're going to lie about being an inforole with an incriminating read on somebody, why in fuck's name would you do it like that?

"This is the main reason I find it implausible for Morgan to be evil, particularly because this would mean that she had a perfectly good miselimination (Morgan and Madeline cannot be partners) and abandoned it for no reason, which ensured Drake's demise instead. It holds only the barest shred of sense in the world where Drake was not evil, which I do not believe is the world we inhabit."

[[I know I've been overconfident in townreads in previous games, but this is a case where I can just turn my brain off and let the vote record do the talking.]]

[[Chibi, if you wanna defend yourself then my #1 tip for an angle would be that I'm really curious on your thoughts on Malachai, since I consider them a much more plausible evil than Madeline right now.]]

"I stated several times that I believed it was very plausible Noivern was collaborating with Rattata. I didn't suspect him of being the demon specifically in the scenario where he is collaborating with Madeline." [[Which I considered way less flawed than either Mal/Morgan and Mal/Elgyem, and I've been primarily fixated at looking at most plausible teams rather than reading individuals, feels more reliable.]]

"If it comes to it, I would accept mutually-assured destruction, because trading my life for his would be a worthy sacrifice. If you believe Noivern is more plausible than Madeline, then who do you believe his accomplices would be?"

[[This would admittedly be me putting all the eggs in the "the scumteam is not Drake/Morgan/Elgyem" basket which is a basket I'm pretty damn sure of for a lot of reasons I've laid out, but it is a gamble nonetheless, which is why I'm not gunning for it hardcore.]]

"Although if the horse is not our demon, she will be one of only three candidates I could choose between tomorrow..."

Glastrier exhaled a frosty breath at the Noivern. "I can state with certainty that the game will persist tomorrow even if today brings my demise. The choice will be upon you soon enough."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"Well, now... We can assume that Odette will die this night. I would surprised at any other outcome. If the game continues, then I would only consider voting for Morgan, Madeline, or Elgyem. Which of them first, I have yet to decide."

[[mostly because Mafia is cognitively exhausting :'D ]]

 

[Sinderella]

You want galaxy brain scum strats, Morgan's play is some of the galaxy-brainiest shit I've ever seen. If she made up all that as scum, I'd be amazed."

Odette’s nose was still deep in the notes her guardian insisted on putting together. Once the scribbling actually started making sense (which was barely), she huffed.

“Yeah, you’re right. The more I look this over the more it looks like my guardian just really likes dying on hills.”

[[Yeeeaaaaah, I guess when you put it like that, the fact that she’s been keeping up with the play, it’s not as scummy. At the beginning it kinda felt like it was moving with the crowd but in recent play, less so. But if it comes down to just process of elimination, which I think we’re getting dangerously close to…I don’t know.

It probably won’t matter for me tomorrow, I am almost POSITIVE I’m dead tonight anyway]]

"Well, now... We can assume that Odette will die this night. I would surprised at any other outcome. If the game continues, then I would only consider voting for Morgan, Madeline, or Elgyem. Which of them first, I have yet to decide."

“Speaking of dying, yes, I will be genuinely surprised if I don’t get slimed tonight.” Never did she think she’d be so calm saying that. But, as long as she wasn’t in her real body, she decided it didn’t matter.

“I think now that my asshole guardian got her hyperfixation on gunning for the party slipping under the radar right now, I’ll look at somebody who’s actually on the chopping block.”

[[In light of recent posts, I think I will look over Chibi’s posts. Then i’ll make a call on vote I guess. Yk before I likely die.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Got some chores to do then gonna do a post or two but idk why we should discount something like. Phan/Morgan only because it's galaxy brained because that's the sort of thing that mafia would do still? Me n Jackie is such a funny thought.

I really wanna review sind in particular since I know she at least isn't guilty hah. I stand by my Rui & Chibi who may even be our demon but if they aren't the demon and are poisoner then I'm definitely leaning more Phan? Will see

Unless Sind is the SK guys I think I solved it kekekke]]