Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

Rocky glared hard at his own diagrams, scribbled and scribbled-over-again as they were, then grunted and stamped the ground once. Hard.

"Rocky make choice. Rocky vote."

Vote Malachai @Inkedust

 

[Zdrmonster]

[[Something tells me Hareta is gonna completely lose his shit soon and kill everyone]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[Damn, Sind, get in here someone's counterclaiming demon.

In all seriousness I'm too tired to weigh Mal vs Honse odds rn but my vote will inevitably land on one of the two tomorrow. Honestly I wouldn't be remiss to take out the other after if the game continues.]]

 

[Chibi Pika]

Why claim D2? I don’t have any Clocktower experience, but once the undertaker is claimed it seems so likely they could be poisoned that they stop being at all reliable. Was the information that Rui was a drunk worth it? Since there’s no risk of night kills silencing you forever, I think it would have been safer to wait a bit. Unless you want your very unlucky scum buddy to be able to participate freely.

"It is simple. I had information that I believed would be useful when combined with what the other two 'info-roles' had discovered."

[[I gotta be honest and say that I never really thought about lying low into the late game because the closed setup meant that scum would probably know most of the roles pretty early anyway (I've been mentally thinking of this game as much closer to ONUW than Mafia, mechanically). I thought it would be useful to immediately rule out drunk for both Morgan and Elgyem, and hoped that between the three of us we could pretty much solve the game, so I jumped on it. Obviously being poisoned forever would be unfortunate side effect, but I figured that if I ended up being a poison magnet, then that meant the other two *weren't* and I could basically shield them in a roundabout sort of way. Maybe it was a misplay, but I think lying low wouldn't have changed much since I don't actually think I've been poisoned yet.]]

I've done this method before, having a role and offhandedly mentioning its existence in the game. It doesn't outright sound like a softclaim, just speculation, but it's a softclaim with hindsight.

Glastrier swished its icicle-laden tail. "Spectrier is a fool," it muttered.

[[Ah. That wasn't meant to be a softclaim, although I can see how it'd look like it from the outside. Maybe just never speculating about what roles are in the game is the best play in the future.]]

"I've been turning this over in my head, honestly. 'Cause I pretty clearly fired a warning shot for who I was about to inspect last night, too, which makes the threat a bit more timely. Seeing the horse try to construct a reality in which they are innocent, and serving up reheated leftovers from my currently critically-damaged theory from last night hasn't exactly put my mind at ease either."

[[I missed whatever the warning shot was, but who else would I vote right now other than Madeline? I already said why I didn't think you or Elgyem were evil, I know I'm not the demon, I have pretty good reason to think Drake wasn't the demon unless I got some seriously weird false intel, therefore I know you weren't poisoned, therefore I think Elgyem was poisoned. If you think you were poisoned, there's probably nothing I can say that'll change that today, so the best thing I can do is explain my reasoning for my vote and hope it makes sense to everyone, and if I get eliminated then we can try again tomorrow with the new intel.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

before Dave was killed, there were no other kills that would suggest there even are scum

[[because there can't be deaths N0 and Dave protected Odette N1. it's that simple.]]

uA immediately backed off of Chibi once Tetra voted for them, because Tetra was being far too obvious and giving scum flags in her vote. uA knew how this looked and they have since backed off the Chibi train significantly.

[[I'm still voting for Chibi, actually. I haven't backed off that train at all? I said briefly that Tetra's force of argument made me doubt myself slightly but I also said that she might be scum trying to juke me in the same breath. You are overstating this.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"Someone double check Rocky logic, please. Rocky want to catch bad voters for Spectrier handed red. Bad bad bad bad bad--"

[[Please sanity check me here, I want to know if this is something or not, because I am uncomfy with this vote train on Chibi right now.]]

"Very well," growled Malachai, his nasal crest dipping as his brows furrowed. "I shall unravel this."

The dragon cleared his throat, and consulted his note-taking scratchings in the dirt.

"You've made an argument about what Spectrier could have predicted at the time they made these statements, or what his agenda might have been for the future..."

[[Sidebar where I translate Rocky-speak to the best of my understanding:]]

As I understand it, Rocky is making the following argument:
Right after Rui claimed Investigator, Spectrier made two posts.
In the first, he outlined the four possible outcomes for Rui's intel. He dismissed the idea that she was Evil, particularly a Spy. He hedged on whether Rui was trustworthy, but settled on trusting her and Morgan.
In the second, he realised that Rui could also simply have been given an Investigator fakeclaim. He equivocated a second time on trusting Rui, then settled on yes.
Both posts were made before we knew the intel was wrong.
Spectrier had no way to know the intel was wrong, even if Rui was evil.
Spectrier had no way to know he would have to falsely claim Rui was Drunk later.
It would have been easy enough to claim Rui was Evil instead of Drunk.
If Rocky were Evil!Spectrier, he would have done this, to dupe us into thinking there were fewer evils left.
The only way this is part of an Evil Spectrier's plan is if he's Spy, but he's not Spy. Therefore he had no plan back then to lie about Rui being Drunk later on.
Spectrier then voted for Watt, trusting the Rui/Elgyem intel and softclaiming about checking Watt's role shortly.
What would Spectrier's fake claim be for Watt? He didn't know Rui would be our real execution instead of Watt. Spectrier believes Rui, this doesn't sound like he's planning to pin Drunk on her.
Spectrier's probably Good. Let's catch Evils who are voting for him.

"However, there are some flaws in your reasoning I should like to point out..."

[[Sidebar where I contest a few of these points:]]

Spectrier would know Rui's intel was wrong in any scenario where Spectrier is Evil. Rui's intel was that someone was scum. Scum know who scum are.
I don't think Spectrier needed to have a plan from the beginning to pin Drunk on Rui, but he could have done, or he could have adapted to the needs of the situation. I don't think this is anything.
It would have been easy enough to claim Rui was Evil instead of Drunk, but I disagree that this is optimal for the mafia this game. If we believe Rui is Drunk, then we don't believe anyone else is Drunk, which could lead us to believe bad intel. If we believe more players are evil, then we are forced to believe that our townreads are lying. This is necessary for scum to win. I believe it can be in scum's interest to make us trust dead players. Remember that dead scum can vote, and if we trust them, we can vote with them.

"...as I say, so long as Spectrier is Evil, then Spectrier knows the Investigator intel is wrong immediately. If he and Rui are both evil then he also knows the Investigator claim is fake immediately. He can even discuss it during Night Zero with his teammates. He then outlines every possibility, hedging his trust, but still pushing for a miselimination. And it remains in his interest to paint Rui as trustworthy after the fact because of how the rules of this game work – in that evil ghosts still participate in voting."

He smiled coolly.

"Does that give you a new perspective, Boldore Rocky?"

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

This is simply not true. You pivoted to Chibi and stayed on Chibi until 30 minutes before EoD.

[[Take a look at the following:]]

I reckon one of Dave or Drake is mafia

If nobody's going to claim Monk/Soldier then we have to believe one of two things is true: either Free is Town, or we have neither Soldier nor Monk and the scumteam passed up an opportunity to kill somebody just to give Free credibility.

[[Taken together, the meaning is clear: I believe Tetra is mafia.

I then poked at Tetra a bit to see if she would give up on keeping her claim secret. I believed she would fold first if she was mafia. She did fold first.
I then typed up most of the following but fell asleep without posting it because it was 1am and I had to drive to work in the morning:]]

Here's what I was typing up last night before I crashed:

Unclaimed town/outsider roles:

• Librarian
• Ravenkeeper
• Soldier
• Mayor
• Recluse
• Saint

I don't believe we have a Recluse or Saint, or they'd have claimed already probably, and we seem to have identified two Outsiders anyway. Pano is Butler, someone (Yellow?) is Drunk. That leaves only four town roles:

• Librarian

The Librarian is another non-repeating inforole, like Washerwoman. They would have said something by now.

• Soldier

The Soldier is the only other claim that could cast doubt on Free's Monk claim. Either we have no Soldier, or someone has lied that they're something else to conceal that they're the Soldier... and I don't believe that's happened. It would be really risky, since town don't have safe fakeclaims to make.

• Ravenkeeper

Tetra is not the Ravenkeeper, because I am the Ravenkeeper. There is now no chance of my being killed in the night, which is what would make me useful to the town. Unfortunate.

• Mayor

Tetra is either the Mayor, or she is scumteam and will fakeclaim Mayor. I don't believe we can both be town, so I believe she is Mafia.

[[In this post I lay out why I believe Tetra is mafia, and why there's no point in keeping my role secret.]]

If their role is so beneficial to town that it shouldn’t be revealed, why suddenly suggest a massclaim? Why not leave scum guessing, like Tetra (very adamantly) insisted?

[[Because if Tetra is scum, scumteam already knew I had to be Ravenkeeper. There literally weren't any other things I could be! The only way scum wouldn't know is if Tetra was town and kept her role secret. Which she didn't, anyway. Which I was expecting her to do if she was scum.

I believe this backs up my claim that I wanted Tetra dead and that there was a good reason for the other things I said.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Also, once again, I can't stay up posting in this thread past 1am and I have a limited window in the morning to post. If I post in the morning it apparently doesn't matter because it's right before EoD. But if I don't respond to everything that happens in the night, then I'm "absent from EoD" and that's sus too. This is an unreasonable line of argument.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

This is the one and only time that Tetra has directed any suspicion at uA.

[[I thought I'd check, and while Tetra hasn't been gunning for me very hard, I did find two other examples of her sussing me:]]

Malachai, who mostly has made roundup posts and readlists. And didn't Vote perse even though Perse rang guilty and they believed Phan and Aer?

I am convinced that one of chibi or Mal is one of the scum.
[...]
I find myself leaning Mal I guess

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

"Mmm, this part where Rocky not so sure."

He can even discuss it during Night Zero with his teammates.

"Rocky flashcards say bad guys have three fake claims for N0, but would not have any other intel, for example, Spy information."

"If Rui Good, Spectrier know Rui not part of bad guy team, but wouldn't know what she'd claim. Spectrier would only know what if Rui was Evil, too."

Rocky stopped, humming to himself. "Rocky not sure if that the case..."

"Rocky ask the group this: if Rui Drunk role is correct about Minion type but wrong about player, that confirms Spectrier's read of Drake. How likely is Drunk to have some correct information versus none, question?" Two taps.

"And, no offense, but Rocky want to hear from players who are not already convinced Spectrier is Evil. Grace stress importance of 'confirmation bias' in science. Double check Rocky does not have any, either. Yes, peer review!"

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[Because if Tetra is scum, scumteam already knew I had to be Ravenkeeper. There literally weren't any other things I could be! The only way scum wouldn't know is if Tetra was town and kept her role secret. Which she didn't, anyway. Which I was expecting her to do if she was scum.

A series of amused chirps sound from Rocky. "This not big reveal. Rocky already deduct what roles you and Drake have before you tell. Not a surprise. Roles convenient and easy to fake."

"If you are Ravenkeeper, why not trying to get information? Player should not fear death at night. Make big claim! Play bold! Convince bad guys to kill you and not other Good guys, like Dave. Rocky not see that."

A few grumbles to himself, then he turned to the rest of the table.

"Rocky want to ask group, what are chances bad guys only have fake roles that activate at night, question? Roles to guarantee player longevity and explain not being killed at night."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"If Rui Good, Spectrier know Rui not part of bad guy team, but wouldn't know what she'd claim. Spectrier would only know what if Rui was Evil, too."

[[If Rui was really Drunk (or Poisoned) then Spectrier wouldn't know what she'd claim in advance. When she claimed that Hareta/Watt was Scarlet Woman, Spectrier would know that was untrue and vote for Watt anyway. In that scenario it's just opportunism. I think opportunism is actually more likely to be significant than elaborate planning ahead of time.

In other words, it doesn't matter if Spectrier has advanced knowledge. He can react to Rui's intel like the rest of us, just with the knowledge that neither Hareta nor Watt is the Scarlet Woman. That's all he needs to know.]]

"Rocky ask the group this: if Rui Drunk role is correct about Minion type but wrong about player, that confirms Spectrier's read of Drake. How likely is Drunk to have some correct information versus none, question?" Two taps.

[[We have no idea. Or at least, I certainly don't! It seems from the wiki like a drunk Soldier just dies, a drunk Empath gets a coinflip, etc... I assume both the type and the register are randomised for Drunk!Investigator?]]

Malachai huffed. "You asked me to check your logic, and I did. My conviction about Spectrier's guilt doesn't make my argument any less applicable. You have not found well-reasoned proof of Spectrier's innocence. It does not mean they are certainly guilty, only that they may be guilty."

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

"You asked me to check your logic, and I did. My conviction about Spectrier's guilt doesn't make my argument any less applicable.

"Yes, but Rocky want to hear from other peers, too. Many peers, many review!"

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[btw this is not to be dismissive of your replies! There are many players in this game, and hearing different takes on something is helpful.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

btw this is not to be dismissive of your replies!

[[dw about it, Mal's just grumpy and thinks he's right. I don't disagree you should want other takes!]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"If you are Ravenkeeper, why not trying to get information? Player should not fear death at night. Make big claim! Play bold!

[[Sure, my D1 play could've been bolder. It's not really my playstyle, though. I'm also completely new to BotC roles and rules, and I had limited availability D1 in particular. I'm honestly not sure how I could even have made a big claim safely early on. I've never been good at softclaims, I apparently softclaimed Monk accidentally this game, I almost never pick up on them. And if I'd fakeclaimed, I'd expect to just get counterclaimed instantly and executed. I was mostly trying to not be sussed so that I'd be murdered instead of executed, but then we ended up with mechanically confirmed Virgin Odette for N1's (failed) kill and self-admitted Monk Dave for N2's kill, with Odette still up for murder N3. There's no world where I could get myself nightkilled this game, I think.]]

"Rocky want to ask group, what are chances bad guys only have fake roles that activate at night, question? Roles to guarantee player longevity and explain not being killed at night."

[[Aren't most of the roles only active at night? Only being active at night doesn't guarantee longevity, though. Post-reveal Ravenkeeper and Soldier aren't gonna get targeted at night, unless simultaneously Poisoned I suppose... I don't know if this is useful thinking, when we have the whole N1 Virgin, N2 Monk, expecting N3 Virgin, thing. I'm sorry, Pano, maybe I'm not understanding what you're getting at?]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

I'm sorry, Pano, maybe I'm not understanding what you're getting at?]]

[[Getting at the likelihood of scum getting a "you receive your information at game start and have no other utility" type roles, a la Watt, Hareta, and Rui's claims.

Utility to scum would be spreading misinformation, but the downside being having to explain why they are never targeted in the night, and also being leading candidates for execution bc Town would not lose an active power by eliminating them. (the reason for my vote for Rui the first day.)]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[this is a question of game composition]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[[I’m at work but I’m ambivalent about Spectrier at the moment and will try to respond to Rocky later.]]

 

[aer]

[[man i don't know anymore... i was thinking phan/rocky/horse but now i don't think that makes sense...]]