Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[Dragonfree]

I would genuinely like to know what I could have possibly done in this situation to not be suspect. I tried to be as calm and level-headed about it as possible. I knew I was a lost cause anyway, but the fact that my posts weren’t even acknowledged by anyone but Phan before EOD really freaking sucked, even if it was largely due to timezone BS. Having Aer come right out the gate today to say “btw I read Rui as innocent” as the very next follow up to that kinda set me off a bit, lol.

I don’t know what I could possibly have done or said in my defense that wouldn’t have read as “sus” at this point. I’d like elaboration on how/why my defense read that way to you?

[[This sort of thing is honestly always pretty vibes-based, and also very prone to confirmation bias. Once you think someone's scum, stuff they do seems scummy even if they did in fact do it perfectly innocently and aren't scum at all; happens every game to everyone. The manner of how you were responding just felt like the sort of thing I'm used to seeing from scum players or even falling into as scum: that's silly because I would never do this as scum, the reasons you're voting for me are completely unreasonable, voting me out is actually voting out an innocent and that's really bad for town so you should all be turning this train around and picking someone else, while you weren't doing anything to contribute to town gamesolving in the process, only talking about why people shouldn't be voting for you. If pressed on it I might have thought back on past games, where I think I've read you as scum while defending yourself for similar reasons before only for you to flip town; possibly I would've recalibrated based on that. But, as I said, I only read this when I was catching up in the morning, and since it was all over by that point, I didn't spend too much thought on it - I just mentioned the vague gut feeling I had reading through it for transparency, because I didn't want to lie and say I totally definitely would've figured it was dead air dead villager and turned the whole thing around if I'd been there.

What would've made it read less like that to me would have been if you'd acknowledged why your info being bad would look suspicious, and you must have been drunk or poisoned, and then you'd tried to weigh in with more of your thoughts on the gamestate and what info we could glean from this. But I must also stress that it's not like there's a single approved playstyle and you need to play that exact way to not look like scum. If I'm scumreading you incorrectly based on how you naturally react when suspected, then it's me that's wrong, not you!]]

Regarding your explanation for the vote: you’ve phrased it well, but the fact remains that, as scum, to make such a specific claim is still a very bold move. Way too many things would have to line up for me to not get caught in a lie there. There were three explanations: I was Drunk, I was Poisoned, or I was scum.

The argument of me being scum just has so many caveats and is a much more complicated assumption than either of the other two options. You called Occam’s Razor, yet went for the most complicated explanation. The simplest and most straightforward explanation was drunk or poisoning—and now that’s been proven right, unless Aer, Phan, and Chibi are all lying, which I don’t think is the case.

[[Occam's razor was perhaps not the ideal term to go for. What I meant by it was sure, there could always be role confusion shenanigans, but also your info might just be wrong because you're lying, and that was clearly simpler and more likely than the whole convoluted theory going on at the time where you were drunk or poisoned but also coincidentally Hareta just so happened to be the Spy so he was still evil (remember, I was there pushing back against the Hareta wagon specifically). But in this game, where role confusion shenanigans are much more prominent than in conventional mafia, there's probably a pretty reasonable argument to be made that role confusion shenanigans are technically the simplest explanation for any given individual discrepancy, so when not speaking relative to the Hareta spy theory, it wasn't the best choice of words.

I do believe at this point that you were probably just the Drunk. None of the reasons why I voted for you meant you couldn't turn out to be the Drunk! I don't totally trust Spectrier, and there's also a possibility you were poisoned if Spectrier is lying/drunk, and theoetically some galaxy brain something where you and Chibi and aer are scum together, but I'm basically discounting that at this point.

As Chibi also mentioned, you would not actually have needed a bunch of things to line up to avoid being caught in a lie if you'd been scum. You would have been making the claim because Investigator would have been your designated unique fakeclaim, with a guarantee that no real player had it; under all normal circumstances your info wouldn't have been disproven so soundly so quickly; and even if it had been, you would still always have had the plausible deniability of possibly hvaing been drunk/poisoned. So it would have been a perfectly safe and reasonable scum play. It does sound like you genuinely didn't think it would have been because you're still very adamant about this, which is fair enough especially if you're not scum and thus didn't actually spend much time strategizing about how having a designated fakeclaim would play out in this game! But I assumed if you were scum with a designated fakeclaim, it'd be pretty likely you'd have read the wiki page for your fakeclaim role and seen the strategy suggestions.]]

I am frankly amazed I wasn't killed last night... I was not worthy for this game, I shouldn't have signed up in the first place! But instead I entered and became a deadly liability... My questions at the start and that fake claim directed suspicion at me, which ended up transpiring events that lead to the death of two players... I'm happy some actual progress seems to be made, with the claim of that Mimikyu being the demon, but I don't feel comfortable being in here for much longer. I shouldn't even have said anything, but instead I have proven myself a danger to everyone else. Perhaps I can be turned around, but if the situation doesn't improve then I'll HEAVILY consider resigning. Might as well vote one more time though...

[[Chiming in with everyone else that you've done fine! Mafia can be overwhelming, especially when you're new to it, but you were actually pretty helpful to town in the end, and now we all believe you're town. No one wants you to leave the game, promise!]]

Actually, looking at this now, are we *sure* there are no duplicate roles in this game? Kinda crazy that we can just out the Demon and end the game. Would there be multiple Demons in play? Again bonkers to think the Drunk role would be the one with Scarlet Woman, who would inherit. Is there any way the Scarlet Woman *IS* in play but we just wouldn't get a role to confirm it? There's nothing saying we NEED an Investigator IF a Scarlet Woman is in play. Both can be true: no Investigator AND Scarlet Woman exists...

"Little confused by this one. If Rui was the Drunk, she had a fake hint that happened to be about the Scarlet Woman, but nothing about that means there's not a real Scarlet Woman role in the game. Even if Rui'd been a real Investigator, her hint could've been about the Poisoner or Spy instead. Nothing to do with the Scarlet Woman specifically."

[[Except it’s not? If I were scum, I would have played it safe and kept the cards close to my chest. I would not have risked getting counter-claimed on day one. At most I’d have hinted at a soft claim.

[[Again, the way scum fakeclaims work here, it would be impossible for your designated fakeclaim to get counterclaimed, because the fakeclaim would be guaranteed unique. I don't blame you being confused on this point if you aren't scum, since it's different from how normal mafia has worked when we've played here, but you would certainly have known it if you were, so hypothetical scum!you would not have worried about counterclaims.]]

Aer claims Empath. (N0: Rui/Hareta both innocent; N1: Madeline/Hareta (1)) I've been pingponging like crazy ever since. Was Rui poisoned by sheer luck and Aer correct? Aer poisoned and Rui drunk? In both these scenarios we have to be careful to fully trust Aer. I'm leaning town because the logic seems to add up for me. But I don't know I trust info. We know for a fact There's a drunk. There's too much conflicting intel and the only gurantee we really have is probably Wind (afaik) and Sind.

Let's think about scum!aer for a second. Scum have fake claims so there's a chance as with any town hardclaim that its fake. And it would be both terrifying and powerful to control the game by using empath powers! Also conveniently easy to claim day 2 and essentially pick whoever. Frankly my immediate jump was to sus like perse beause its just so easy of claim imo, much the way I leaned it being easy for Rui to fakeclaim investigator.

"Elgyem wouldn't have had to be poisoned for Rui to be Drunk. The Drunk is good-aligned, so the Empath would've detected her as good either way, no poisoning needed."

Phantumps claims clairvoyant, claims Perse is the demon. Because at first I was entirely skeptical, if scumteam did have that in their fakeclaims, they could have plotted to insinuate anything given they have the priviledged info and would know there's no clairvoyants. they could boldly say almost anything they want. And since there's no role reveal upon death we wouldn't know that they 'picked wrong'. I mean it would be good scumplay to hint a little (after all a scum doesnt fear death) and then claim? . And the whole bit about 'testing' their reads to see if they weren't drunk. I mean add some uncertinty and frinedly testing and bam! townie.

I did end up rereading D0 though and it doesn't feel like scum theatre (but then again good scum theatre doesn't). But I find that under scrutiny, its too bold. I think what makes it feel most plausible is the consistency and the target; I guess I don't see this kind of elaborate thing to come up? It would be ...risky?

The other option is that Phan was poisoned? On the tiny obscure chance Phan was poisoned on either night (instead of Rui, this assumes Rui is Drunk and not flailing minion or Poisoned) its hard to say. If Scum picked up on any hints it would make sense to target a perceived power role like Aer or Phan?

"Note Morgan's actual claimed results were, night zero, that the Demon was one of Watt and Madeline, and night one, that the Demon was not either of Rocky and Madeline. She thinks Madeline is the Demon despite her N1 result, because she thinks she was poisoned specifically last night. If you don't think Morgan is Drunk or was poisoned specifically last night, then Morgan's result clears Madeline of being the Demon. I think she was not nearly clear enough about this."

Chibi claims undertaker. Chibi says Rui is innocent. What bugs me here is we don't actually know that this clears Rui if Chibi was poisoned? But obviously only two out of all the results we got were poisoned. If Chibi is poisoned here, it means that at the very least, the Rui bit is bad intel and Phant and Aer are correct, assuming that isn't some S+ tier scum theatre between the two of them (we're ultracooked if we don't have a real a Empath or Clairvoyant what the frick).

But if Chibi did see truthfully this does clear up the whole kerfuffle and explain all the confusion as just genuine confusion not anyone playing anything. Town!Chibi lines up with trying to play it cool day 1 to survive long enough to use a power. But then... scum chibi could just as easily play the same? I mean I think historically scum chibi is very secretive or smth...

"If Spectrier was poisoned, then that'd mean Morgan wasn't poisoned, which means Madeline is not the Demon. Again, just getting this clear. Morgan's scenario hinges on specifically her having been poisoned specifically last night and not on night zero. Which might be what happened, but please be clear on this when you propose other people were poisoned last night. I'm not really worried about Spectrier getting poisoned last night. He might be evil but poisoning's a long shot. Either way Drunk Rui seems pretty easy to buy."

I think Rui was Drunk, and Aer or Phan was poisoned N0 (awful luck bad bad bad) and Phan or Chibi was Poisoned N1 on a lucky guess.

"Yet again, just reminding you that if you think Morgan is correct that Madeline is the Demon, then she has to have been poisoned on N1, and not poisoned on N0. And nobody would need to have been poisoned N0 for Rui to be the Drunk."

Dave, seemingly being confident about Watt yesterday (as opposed to Hareta at the time), only for Watt to turn up Town and Free to be surprised. Why were you more confident about Watt over Hareta before we had the virgin incident?

"Because we had info from Rui that either Watt or Hareta was Scarlet Woman, Elgyem's info said Hareta was innocent so it must be Watt, and I also got bad vibes off how Watt was defending himself, like I said when I voted for him. He was weirdly reluctant to claim, and then made a very safe claim when he did, and all in all it had me raising an eyebrow. All the info we had at the time and my gut lined up on that one. Easy choice."

Do we actually know Pano is hard confirmed Butler? I read Pano's roleclaim and explanation but surely that doesn't gurantee that you couldn't make that up if you were scum and got an explanation of how it works, right? I'm not suggesting Pano is guilty I'm just speculating possibilites

"He's not hard-confirmed Butler, no. It's an easy fakeclaim."

[[Yesn’t, but mostly yes? Morgan used Rocky as a control in her experiment to pin down Madeline. Assuming Morgan is telling the truth, then this at least confirms Rocky as an Outsider due to how Morgan’s powers work.]]

"Morgan's powers don't have anything to do with Outsiders. They just state whether one of the two people chosen is the Demon. Morgan thinks she was poisoned last night, and thus that last night's result doesn't mean anything at all. If you don't think she was poisoned, and thus that her info last night meant anything, then Madeline is also not the Demon."

 

[Dragonfree]

[[I think it's interesting that Dave plants the idea that Mal is inevitably scum but does admit later in the body of the post that it could easily be Spectrier instead. That feels like a motivated frontloaded claim followed by ass-covering, to me. I'm getting a bit of a scum ping from that, I think? I'm leaning Dave over Drake for tomorrow's vote.]]

"Spectrier wouldn't be scum instead of you. He, or Rocky, would be the third scum instead of Madeline. I mean, I guess maybe it could be Madeline and Drake and Spectrier or some shit, but that's not what I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at you, Drake, and a third person who could be Madeline but my gut says it isn't at this point. I've yet to take a really good look at what's possible, but I doubt I'm reconsidering either of the two of you without a claim."

 

[Dragonfree]

"Spectrier wouldn't be scum instead of you. He, or Rocky, would be the third scum instead of Madeline. I mean, I guess maybe it could be Madeline and Drake and Spectrier or some shit, but that's not what I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at you, Drake, and a third person who could be Madeline but my gut says it isn't at this point. I've yet to take a really good look at what's possible, but I doubt I'm reconsidering either of the two of you without a claim."

"Okay, hang on, I just looked at the fucking seating arrangements again and I see what you mean, since the two of you are sitting next to each other. Cool, then the two of you can't be on a team together. Point in Spectrier's favor."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Yeah my whole argument for the honse hinges on being neighbours with the honse. Sind's hard-confirmed, I trust zdr enough, I'm town, I have a null read on Chibi, therefore it's probably Chibi. I haven't found any scumtells in Chibi's play or anything (especially as they'd had a hell week at their work), I just have to assume there's pretty good odds they might be mafia since you and Tetra (Flyg0n) can't both be scum and there are only so many valid suspects (if I trust who I've decided to trust). If Perse isn't mafia, then I necessarily have to start looking at Pano/Tetra (I do not believe this is a real scumteam) or someone I've decided to trust already, like aer. It's easier to believe that it's you and Chibi. Hope I'm right, sorry if I'm wrong, lol.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Here's my readlist in illustrative roundtable format in case that helps anyone. Note that I have a tendency to trust too easily in this game, so I tend to fill up on greens and have to re-evaluate later. I'm far from infallible! I also have only ever rolled Mafia once and I died immediately from shooting myself in the head, which colours my ability to get inside the head of hypothetical scumteams. Nevertheless, this seating arrangement information (if we believe it) means I kinda have to suspect certain players. You see?]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

READLIST

Portrait	Player	Name	Species	Pronoun	Read	Role	Thoughts
	Dragonfree	Dave	Mightyena	he/him	Sus	unclaimed	My gut's telling me something. Plus I reckon one of Dave or Drake is mafia, and I like Dave better for it.
	Flyg0n	Drake	A-Rattata	he/him	Neutral	unclaimed	Dunno yet.
	Sinderella	Odette	Lopunny	she/her	Hard Town	Virgin	Delicious mechanical confirmation.
	unrepentantAuthor	Malachai	Noivern	he/him	Hard Town	unclaimed	I'm me!
	Chibi Pika	Spectrier	Spectrier	he/him	Sus	Undertaker	Seating arrangement makes me think... maybe. Easy fakeclaim, too.
	Zdrmonster	Hareta	Squirtle	he/him	Hard Town	Washerwoman	Once I saw there were no deaths overnight, I deduced the Mafia probably don't have a Spy, which means Hareta is almost certainly innocent.
	aer	Elgyem	Elgyem	she/her	Town	Empath	The mechanical stuff tracks to me, and the behavioural energy tracks to me.
	HelloYellow17	Rui	Leafeon	she/her	Town	Drunk	Just seems like the most straightforward explanation. That, or Poisoned Investigator.
	Persephone	Madeline	Mimikyu (Skitty)	she/her	Scum	Slayer	I wish I was more certain about this. Easy fakeclaim.
	Shiny Phantump	Morgan	Mismagius	she/any	Please Be Town 🙏	Fortune-Teller	I really fucking want her claim to be true, and it seems like a ridiculously elaborate thing to fabricate, especially without being a Spy.
	windskull	Watt	Plusle	he/any	Hard Town	Chef	I seriously doubt he was mafia.
	Panoramic_Vacuum	Rocky	Boldore	he/him	Soft Town	Butler	Checks out so far but nothing that'd make me ride or die, yet. Easy fakeclaim.

Unclaimed town/outsider roles:

• Librarian
• Monk*
• Ravenkeeper
• Soldier*
• Mayor
• Recluse
• Saint

*We have to have one of these.

Plausible Mafia composition:

• Demon
• Scarlet Woman
• Poisoner

 

[Dragonfree]

"Hmm, Rocky not sure Investigator can be Poisoned. It say Investigator learn information on very first night, right at start of game!" He boldly proclaimed, shoving his carapace forward, bumping into his neighbor Dave in the process. "Apology, apology. Rocky new to body."

"Other player may know better than Rocky, though. This my first game of this kind."

"Thinking about Rocky... Back at the beginning he had this understanding that the Investigator, and other roles that get info with their role at the very start, probably couldn't be poisoned. I assumed the same myself, as town, until apparently there was confirmation otherwise, because the only way the Poisoner could affect these roles was if the Poisoner got their role way before everyone else, and then no one else got their role until once the Poisoner had answered who they'd be poisoning that night, which seemed pretty counterintuitive. But apparently that was what happened. And if Rocky were evil he'd know that, right...? Presumably it would've come up with his mafia buddies, either because they were already talking by then and had to decide who to poison together, or because the poisoner would've had to make a decision before the rest of them and then tell them about it, right? So he'd have had to be faking his confusion on this. Not impossible, but it makes me less inclined to think he could be scum."

Rocky tapped a fist against the side of his other leg in a repetitive rhythm, self soothing, perhaps? "Is possible Hareta is Spy. Knows everything about who is who. Odd that in flip of coin between Odette and Rui they focused on Odette since start of day... Why so focused on Odette, question? Bad bad bad, bad bad bad. Rocky unsettled."

"Rocky did push the dodgy Hareta Spy theory, but he'd just gotten confused on what Rui's result was actually about and didn't realize it'd said Scarlet Woman specifically, which is fair enough."

After a moment of tapping and feeling the warmth of Dave's fur against his skin, Rocky spoke again, sounding more composed.

"Rocky want to remind everyone this is number game. Demon and Minions fear death most. Small numbers compared to good guys. Good guys with information already and no powers should not fear death. Still in game even after they die, no powers to lose. Watt not scared of death. Watt had information. Watt good guy."

Rocky finally peeked towards where Watt had previously sat, before speaking more solemnly.

"Hareta already have information. Hareta claims no power. Yet Hareta scared of death. Why, question?" Two taps.

"Rocky want to hear from Rui after all this, but Dave give Rocky power to vote, so Rocky will vote."

Vote Hareta @Inkedust

"He also had this secondary reason for voting Hareta, which is also fair enough. I think it was just inexperienced play on Hareta's part, but don't think Rocky's showing any obvious agenda here."

Next he turned to face the Elgyem, but not before sweeping over a few of the other assembled players. "Rocky knew Elgyem was Empath yesterday. Listen to their softclaim, knew that was their potential role." He tapped the stack of flashcards at his feet. "Rocky read and learn. Smart. Understand why they not defend Rui, only Hareta. Not mad. Part of game."

"Rocky definitely indicated he picked up what Elgyem was putting down."

Another chirp from Rocky, and a few more calculating taps in the dirt. "Oh, Rocky forget flashcards for a moment. True, true, Rocky appreciate correction of role."

A frustrated grunt and a mumble to himself. "Too many names."

[[Thank you, boy I am having a hard time separating Demon, Imp, Minion, scum @_@ I am used to Mafia having them all be completely interchangeable, but here Demon is *one specific role and no others* and I will do my best to remember that.

This would still check out though, with night scum chat making a plan to protect Perse's identity by tampering with your results. They poison you, and take a shot at someone else, but then we have a Soldier or a very lucky/clever Monk. Definitely agree there's less chance of there being a Spy if there was no night kill; they'd know how to navigate around that by shooting at the Monk, specifically. And even though I missed your soft claim, if the scum team didn't, they could definitely zero in on tampering with your results last night to protect their Demon.

"And mentioned missing Morgan's softclaim entirely. If Rocky were scum, the mafia poisoning Morgan last night sounds unlikely, which makes Rocky and Madeline being scum together less likely."

Actually, looking at this now, are we *sure* there are no duplicate roles in this game? Kinda crazy that we can just out the Demon and end the game. Would there be multiple Demons in play? Again bonkers to think the Drunk role would be the one with Scarlet Woman, who would inherit. Is there any way the Scarlet Woman *IS* in play but we just wouldn't get a role to confirm it? There's nothing saying we NEED an Investigator IF a Scarlet Woman is in play. Both can be true: no Investigator AND Scarlet Woman exists...

"This seems like a weird point of confusion if he were scum."

Dave slumped back down on the ground, dragging a paw over his face. "All in all, thinking back on Rocky's play I'm again not feeling him being scum. Ugh. These fucking games."

 

[aer]

[[I finally get to be town and then this happens by conspiracy or terrible luck. I think this is going to be my last game and if I weren’t immediately about to die I’d probably ask for a sub. I’m tired, I don’t see a way out of this, and I’m not even sure how much help I can be in this game anymore if no one is ever going to believe I’m town.]]

[[FWIW if you are town I will owe you an apology by the end of this.]]

 

[windskull]

Name	Claim	Read	Notes
Dave/mighteyena	None	Neutral	Neutral but leaning sus. Again, I struggle with reading Free. That said, based on current information I feel pretty confident that one of Dave or Drake is scum, but not both.
Drake/Rattata	None	Mild sus	Current gameplay feels in line with previous gameplay. The waffling between Rui and Haretta could read as town or scum to me. Cannot be scum if Dave is.
Odette/Lopunny	Virgin (Hard confirmed)	Confirmed Town	Not really much to say. Mechanically confirmed.
Malachai/Noivern	None	Neutral/Mild sus	Mostly vibes based. However, based on my information I think it's most likely that one of Malachai or Spectrier is scum, and I'm currently leaning Malachai.
Spetrier	Undertaker	Soft Town	Very soft town, given that role as it currently stands is an easy fake claim. Claims Rui was drunk. Cannot be scum if Malachai is.
Hareta/Squirtle	WasherWoman	Hard Town	Having slept on it, the fact that Hareta's information panned out makes me pretty confident in the town rating. I can't see them being anything else.
Elgyem	Empath	Soft Town	Gameplay seems pretty towny, information has panned out thus far. Not impossible that Elgyem was poisoned yesterday (see notes on Madeline), but seems unlikely.
Rui/leafeon	Investigator (possibly drunk)	Soft Town	Claimed to be Drunk by Spectrier, which would track with her information being inaccurate.
Madeline	Slayer (if is slayer, failed)	Sus	Right now, Madeline seems like the best vote. The only alternative I can think of to Scum Madeline is if Morgan is scum and Elgyem was poisoned N1 to frame Madeline. It seems unlikely, but I don't think it's impossible, and may be a theory worth revisiting depending on how things pan out. If Madeline is being honest, then Morgan is not the demon.
Morgan/Mismagius	Clairvoyance	Soft Town	Claims Madeline is the demon based on reads, suspects she was poisoned. Posts have generally been helpful. Info is corroborated by Elgyem. The only way I can think of Morgan not being town is the play I described above with Madeline.
Watt/Plusle	Chef	Confirmed Town	Dat me.
Rocky/Boldore	Butler	Soft Town	Posts have been helpful and lean towards game solving, and I generally find myself agreeing with them. I don't think it's impossible that Pano is scum, but right now it feels unlikely. Cannot be scum if Dave is.

[[No energy to put this ic right now. Some stray thoughts:
-Assuming that Rui really is drunk and assuming I wasn't poisoned n0, the only way both Dave and Drake could be mafia is if one of them is a spy. While not impossible, I lean towards the Scarlett Woman/Poisoner/Demon make up as more probable based on role claims thus far. I don't want to rule this out, but I want to focus my energy on more pertinent reads.
-Although unlikely, I don't think the alt theory I presented regarding Madeline is impossible. I remember there was some pretty insane mafia play in one of the previous games. I can't remember if it was a predicted vig-shot that was redirected via bussing or a cop/rolecop read. The point being, it's unlikely play, but not impossible. There are other leads I would follow first before revisiting this one as it currently stands.
-Whether scum or town, Persephone continues to be the unluckiest mafia player around.
-Gonna head out for now but if I have time/energy, I'll probably try to do a more in-depth read of the more sus players before eod.

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[I finally get to be town and then this happens by conspiracy or terrible luck. I think this is going to be my last game and if I weren’t immediately about to die I’d probably ask for a sub. I’m tired, I don’t see a way out of this, and I’m not even sure how much help I can be in this game anymore if no one is ever going to believe I’m town.]]

[[Call me a softie, but y’all, this really reads as genuine frustration to me, and I sympathize.

Persephone, I think a large part of the problem is that you haven’t contributed too much to the scum hunting discussion until after you spent your shot on Morgan. It would have been helpful to lay out in more detail why you found Morgan or Elgyem suspicious before then, to have speculated more on other potential suspicious players, etc. So far your play has felt (to me, at least!) strangely isolated for a town player. However, if you’re more used to being scum than town, then that tracks!

I would love to hear your thoughts on the game as a whole, on other players, a read list, anything. Help us help you out. I don’t want to eliminate you if you’re truly, genuinely not scum.]]

 

[Dragonfree]

Right now, Madeline seems like the best vote. The only alternative I can think of to Scum Madeline is if Morgan is scum and Elgyem was poisoned N1 to frame Madeline. It seems unlikely, but I don't think it's impossible, and may be a theory worth revisiting depending on how things pan out. If Madeline is being honest, then Morgan is not the demon.

"Just going to mention again that Morgan would not have to be scum for Madeline to be innocent. If Elgyem was poisoned N1, then Morgan could have been poisoned N0, or you could've been Morgan's designated false positive, to explain Morgan's result then. It's still more moving parts than just Morgan being poisoned N1, but it's perfectly possible and does not require scum Morgan. I keep emphasizing this because I'm very paranoid Madeline is going to turn out innocent."

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[I would also frankly really love more input from the hard/soft confirmed town members! (Though I understand life is busy and it’s a weekend. 💛)

@Sinderella would love to hear more thoughts from you! A readlist, maybe?

@Zdrmonster You’re honestly doing fine! You haven’t made any misplays and you helped confirm both Watt/Wind and Odette/Sind as hard town, which is valuable info especially alongside Watt’s hint. Please continue playing and providing observations and thoughts; not playing at all only hurts town, which I believe you are.]]

 

[windskull]

"Just going to mention again that Morgan would not have to be scum for Madeline to be innocent. If Elgyem was poisoned N1, then Morgan could have been poisoned N0, or you could've been Morgan's designated false positive, to explain Morgan's result then. It's still more moving parts than just Morgan being poisoned N1, but it's perfectly possible and does not require scum Morgan. I keep emphasizing this because I'm very paranoid Madeline is going to turn out innocent."

[[Fair point that I overlooked. Thanks.]]

 

[Persephone]

“Okay, so a general explanation of my play, I guess. The little ghost behind me is most experienced trying not be suspicious and getting someone irritating killed. Less good at deduction when she genuinely does not have information.

My strategy this game was largely stay quiet and not immediately claim. I thought my role, if it was anything like vigilante, was going to be a high priority target if I was forced to claim. I also had no good information to reveal.

When Day 2 came I was spiraling and literally a bit sick. I wasn’t really out of brain fog until later in the afternoon when I moved towards taking a shot. I didn’t have a strong scum read on anyone. The best idea I had was that at least one of my accusers was probably lying since they were wrong and a weird chain of events would have needed to happen for them not to be lying. The second accuser position feels easier to be scum since you’re mixing your “information” with a more credible source.

I also haven’t really been active since due to extreme frustration and the belief that giving my sincere thoughts would be counterproductive. After all, if scum were targeting me so hard, why wouldn’t they poison the undertaker? (Assuming Chibi is town.) If my thoughts were going to be dissected as obviously spiraling scum trying to cover for her teammates, why bother?”

[[And, yes, I know Slayer would be a garbage fake claim. The wiki section on pretending to be slayer is almost as long as the section on actually being slayer. I promise if I was scum I would much prefer to “borrow” one of my teammate’s fake claims in this situation, especially since it seems like most of the potential scum players are unclaimed.]]

“It seems like some people want to hear them. I really need to go back over the thread, especially today after I checked out. I can promise a more detailed analysis of the players who aren’t more or less confirmed town. Hopefully today, but potentially on Day 3.”

[[We’ll see if my cat allows me to have enough computer time when I get home to edit a chapter for crossposting and also read 12+ pages of mafia play.]]

 

[Zdrmonster]

No matter who Madeline is, should we investigate into those who others are reading as "sus?" Assuming there really are just the demon and two minions, and the ACTUAL Scarlet Woman apparently also has to be eliminated... But I can't tell who to focus on tomorrow. By the way, thanks to you all, I must've regained my confidence by a bit.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

"Rocky think we do!"

A few more scratches in the dirt, and a louder grinding sound. A proclamation. "Rocky run some numbers! Based on Watt claim information, and if no players are currently lying about their powers, there are only 3 possible remaining players who could be Evil: Dave, Drake, and Malachai. Of these three, two cannot be Evil together: Dave and Drake, because they sit next to each other."

Morgan's eye lit up. "I forgot! Thank you, Rocky! That's incredibly helpful!"

First off - do we have Spy? My verdict is... maybe. Because while it is technically reasonable to conclude that the lack of nightkill means a lack of spy, it seems worth at least keeping in the back pocket that if they did have a spy, wouldn't they try to control the game by not nightkilling? Make us think they don't have one?? My takeaway is we shouldn't be too hasty to gurantee anything in a game with Poison and Drunk.

"It'd be like sitting down at a poker table, getting dealt a pair of aces, and folding to convince everyone you have crap. It'll technically be persuasive, sure, but you'll have forfeited the advantage of having a good hand. A persuasive lie is only valuable if it helps you win. Walking deliberately into the worst thing a Spy could help prevent to convince people you don't have one doesn't work because at that point they're functionally correct."

[[Traditional BotC rules are that the Demon actually can't abstain unless they lose their power to poison. (This is standard for all every-night roles.) But at this point in this game I honestly think Inke would allow it. There's precedent on this forum for equivalent roles being able to abstain from killing. (Hi it's me I'm the precedent. It sucked. I don't think anyone would do it outside a disaster scenario. Ironically, Perse was my scumbuddy for that gambit.)]]

Do we actually know Pano is hard confirmed Butler? I read Pano's roleclaim and explanation but surely that doesn't gurantee that you couldn't make that up if you were scum and got an explanation of how it works, right? I'm not suggesting Pano is guilty I'm just speculating possibilites

Morgan found herself oddly defensive of the weird little rock. He was so charming, how could she not? But after giving it a moment's consideration to make sure she wasn't blinded to the truth by his attitude, she concluded that it was right to trust him.

"Literally, no. For most practical intents and purposes, yes. We haven't confirmed he's the butler, per se, and we never will. Not directly. The cue that a butler might be fake isn't anything to do with the role, but what's around it. The amount of real outsiders in the game is set from the start, and any fake ones will push the amount of claimed outsiders up beyond that number. Saint and Recluse are both basically forced day one claims, they are out of play. To argue that Rocky is faking being an outsider, you have to argue that the town setup has eight townsfolk, one outcast, two minions, and the demon. It's not impossible, but it's... weird. Very pro-town, and probably the worst day one Outsider fakeclaim you could make in that scenario: Recluse would be much more powerful, and Saint is incredibly hard to vote out."

Fine, my logic, again, on the Morgan shot. While it is possible that one of my accusers hit a false positive and the other was poisoned, that seemed less likely than one or both being scum.

"I... actually agree that, for a hypothetical town-Maddie, I am the best shot she could take. I just don't buy that town-Maddie exists in the first place."

"Just going to mention again that Morgan would not have to be scum for Madeline to be innocent. If Elgyem was poisoned N1, then Morgan could have been poisoned N0, or you could've been Morgan's designated false positive, to explain Morgan's result then. It's still more moving parts than just Morgan being poisoned N1, but it's perfectly possible and does not require scum Morgan. I keep emphasizing this because I'm very paranoid Madeline is going to turn out innocent."

Morgan leered at Dave.

"Sorry, puppydog, but I disagree. Maddie and I are the only two players on this side of the field I could consider to be at all... contentious. The turtle and cat's roles are pretty much on lock, I've just said why I don't think Rocky is a viable suspect, if Nine-Volt was a minion then making them register as just a slightly different kind of minion to the drunk is bizarre, improbably, and cruel and the series of events leading to the Virgin thing coinciding with that is comically unreasonable."

Elegym would probably be the hardest sell here, since it was more of a social read than a mechanical one, but it was also one she was firm on.

"You have to argue a pretty bizarre mens rea for Elegym to be faking what's ultimately very normal behaviour for a new townie with an info role. You know, cautiously trickling us information that seemed obviously important really early in the game, info which has now been more or less confirmed to be true. And doing so while trying to only softclaim some form of info while being just a liiiiittle bit too forthcoming in a way that made it actually quite clear what the actual underlying role was. If that's an insane evil team social engineering gambit then you know what, good job, you've got me eating out of the palm of your hand.

A deep breath, in and out. This was the part that was dangerous to herr.

"But someone not on the right flank has to be evil, based on Nine-Volt's info. And I don't doubt that info. At least, my fucking nerd guardian doesn't."

[[In a town with no Recluse to serve as a fourth possible trigger, the odds of our three evils, spread across twelve seats, being adjacent are nontrivial but not great. (I'm not crunching the exact numbers.) Even if Watt being poisoned was a 50/50, I'd favour the accuracy of their information slightly. But it's also not a 50-50. The evil team has 9 people of unconfirmed role and can poison only one. For Watt to be wrong, we need to have an unlikely seating arrangement with an unlikely poison hit.]]

"Now, we're not crazy, we're not actually arguing that people should start suspecting me of being a Minion..." [[and it would have to be a Minion in specific, since Slayer failed.]] "I am saying that theories positing that neither Maddie nor I are scum can probably be— at least temporarily— discarded! That would be a move to simplify things. It also makes me more confident in my personal reading."

"Rocky run some numbers! Based on Watt claim information, and if no players are currently lying about their powers, there are only 3 possible remaining players who could be Evil: Dave, Drake, and Malachai. Of these three, two cannot be Evil together: Dave and Drake, because they sit next to each other."

"Lastly, I should take a guess at who else I suspect. I think there's serious risks to playing the game a turn ahead of time, so I don't want to go too far..."

Morgan looked between the oddly-large Noivern and the dog. Both of them were accusing each other, one of them was almost surely right and the other lying. Then, she shot a look at the Noivern, trying to lock eyes.

"But I'm just going to soulread Noivern for a moment: I've decided to trust him for now. I have my reasons. I'm curious to see if he acts how I expect him to, though. That's all."

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[I finally get to be town and then this happens by conspiracy or terrible luck. I think this is going to be my last game and if I weren’t immediately about to die I’d probably ask for a sub. I’m tired, I don’t see a way out of this, and I’m not even sure how much help I can be in this game anymore if no one is ever going to believe I’m town.]]

[[Oh, also, forgot to include this: No matter what the roles are under the hood, I firmly believe you're having a shit time of this. I'm sorry about, earnestly. I've felt similarly before, during the slow crawl towards an inevitable loss in Vanilla Mafia. It was the last game I played for four years, I only picked it back up extremely recently and was pretty apprehensive about doing it. And I think stopping was the right decision for me there, probably the best mafia-related decision I've made. I can't speak for you but it sounds like given you're considering it, it'd probably be good for you too. I'm sorry, and I wish you well.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Then, she shot a look at the Noivern, trying to lock eyes.

"But I'm just going to soulread Noivern for a moment: I've decided to trust him for now. I have my reasons. I'm curious to see if he acts how I expect him to, though. That's all."

Malachai met the Mismagius' gaze with an even one of his own, then bowed lightly.

"I appreciate your trust, Morgan. I can promise you that you will not regret it. I only hope you are worth the trust I am placing in you."

 

[HelloYellow17]

Just going to mention again that Morgan would not have to be scum for Madeline to be innocent. If Elgyem was poisoned N1, then Morgan could have been poisoned N0, or you could've been Morgan's designated false positive, to explain Morgan's result then. It's still more moving parts than just Morgan being poisoned N1, but it's perfectly possible and does not require scum Morgan. I keep emphasizing this because I'm very paranoid Madeline is going to turn out innocent."

[[At this point I share the same paranoia. Since this is a numbers game after all, I reaaaally don’t want to eliminate another town today. It’s possible Persephone is scum and Free is her scum buddy, but that doesn’t really track to me—I think Free would have spoken up much sooner, in that case. Defending someone when a train is already very set on them only brings more attention/suspicion to oneself as scum. Traditionally I think scum buddies try to step in before a train gets too set in stone.

This flaw in Morgan’s plan does bother me. There are definitely explanations for it where she isn’t scum, though. Buuut the aggressive assertion that Persephone is scum no matter what despite it not being certain is strange to me. And, well, the adamant stance that killing two townies on D1 is favorable still doesn’t sit right with me. I know, I know, we talked that out extensively and she was operating off traditional BotC rules. But I can’t shake the gut feeling, I’m sorry. 😅

More observations: I’m starting to lean towards very soft town on Free for now, but she’s always a tricky one to read, haha. Tetra’s absence this phase has me side-eyeing a bit—I know she was busy yesterday but there’s been complete radio silence today as well…would very much like more input from you!

I don’t see Pano’s play as scummy, but I’ve been wrong before. But prodding less active players to give thoughts—and specific thoughts at that—feels like town play. Scum, from my experience, tend to be ok with less active members because they naturally draw more suspicion. (Again, none of this logic is foolproof.) she also freely offered a role claim pretty early without waiting to be prodded for it, which I’ve found to be a less common scum strat. I realize now Rocky hasn’t been soft confirmed of anything, and again Butler is a safe fake claim for scum, but for now I don’t have any strong pings for scum coming from Pano.

Historically, both Jackie and Tetra are usually way more aggressive town players. They’re often vocally in favor of voting someone out at random on D1. They are rarely absent from EoD shenanigans, especially when an unexpected twists happens, and are actively part of the scrambling to resolve things in the chaos. I saw none of that here, and while the EoD likely chalks up to time zone differences, I’ve noticed very little scumhunting overall from either of them, like Pano said. This pings me as very very odd.

So, for now, I’m speculating a potential scum team of Drake, Malachai, and (very very tentatively) Morgan. Main reason for placing mild sus on Morgan is the aggressive assertion of Persephone’s guilt and the fact that Morgan has been rather fiercely defensive of Malachai specifically right out the gate.

Again: I could be completely off-base. But this is my speculation for now. Take it or leave it!]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

If my thoughts were going to be dissected as obviously spiraling scum trying to cover for her teammates, why bother?”

[[Fwiw I very much relate to this mindset and this was where I was at end of D1. And wouldn’t you know it, I was right! Because eventually a point is reached where nothing you do or say is going to be taken in good faith, and that’s incredibly frustrating. That’s why I want to hear you out, so thanks for outlining your perspective. (And I’m so sorry you’ve been sick.) Would still really like your reads on specific players when you have the chance!]]