So... I take my eyes off the room for a few hours [[wake up]] and the suspect is dead AND innocent. What
I am not missing the discussion this time!! Good morning everyone I am the
Empath!!! Here were my results from the first night:
- N0: 0. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be
Rui/
Hareta) who are evil)
But... THAT all just happened. Watt is confirmed innocent through Virgin...
Last night I was going ??????? because if Watt was innocent, that means that Rui was the spy, and it was a setup to kill a townie d1. Neither Rui or Hareta is evil, but Rui’s information means that it was either Hareta or Watt, so it has to be Watt. Watt gets confirmed innocent through Hareta’s information. So Rui’s information was wrong... but does it make any sense as a play? I don’t think so... it seems more likely we got confused. It didn’t seem like Rui knew what was going on for it to go badly, while if there was a Spy involved they would’ve known that Hareta was the Washerwoman and Watt was the Chef, like shouldn’t they have picked people without verifiable information instead of the two that could outclaim each other? And just out of how Rui was talking it sounds like she was very confident in the information... I think she was drunk or poisoned.
And then I got my night action results:
- N0: 1. (The number of Elgyem's 2 alive neighbors (this would be
Madeline/
Hareta) who are evil)
so yeah i ughhhh
Dave facepalmed - or tried to. "Well, okay. That would've been nice to know a bit earlier before we fucking killed her." Not that even that was a sure thing. This drunk and poisoning thing sure just threw everything into the fucking air. Like every experiment just having a base chance of being contaminated and returning random results.
"Okay, let's take an inventory of what we actually know for
certain. We
know Watt was innocent. We
know Odette is. We
basically know Hareta had accurate information on the identity of the virgin - some
theoretical chance he just fucking guessed, but I'm not buying that, and if he were drunk or poisoned or whatever the fuck, his 'info' would be random and as good as a guess. So it's very unlikely Hareta could be anything other than Washerwoman, like he says, or theoretically Spy.
"Meanwhile, here's the other claim info we have. None of
this is certain, because one person could be drunk, and one person could be poisoned."
“S-so, last night, I got some information. Because of my role.” She raised her head and forced more confidence into her tone. “I’m an Investigator. And I was told that one of two people here has the Prolong Emera.”
Oh, gods, she remembered the names, but not even which species. She didn’t know yet whose gaze to avoid, so she stared at a tree across the clearing instead. “I learned that either Hareta or Watt has it.”
She sat back. “That’s all my role does, I think. I won’t learn anything else for the rest of the…of this.” Felt weird calling it a game when Zevya had been hurt. Then she gave a small start. “Oh! But, um, there’s always the possibility I could be Drunk or Poisoned, right? I think I heard something about that. So…there’s always the possibility chance my information isn’t accurate. But it was too important to keep to myself.”
[[Role claiming Investigator. I was told either @windskull or @Zdrmonster is the Scarlet Woman, who is a Demon. But Drunk/Poisoned is in play so my info might not be accurate.]]
"Rui said she was an Investigator and learned either Hareta or Watt is the Scarlet Woman. Because we know Watt was the Chef, and Hareta is either Washerwoman or Spy, her info is clearly busted. So it's still the case that either she was lying, she was poisoned, or she's the drunk. The game not ending means she's not the
Demon, but it's still possible she's a minion."
... okay. I can corroborate
Rui's claim with my ability. With the particulars of my ability and the power of logic, I
strongly believe that
Watt is the Scarlet Woman, and
Hareta is innocent.
I would've preferred to wait some more for Inke's response, but if no one else is claiming, it seems important to give this information now. It just seemed too perfect, everything linked up too well, that someone would pick a claim that I could verify as true and we could narrow down to one immediately. Like, if there was a Spy, this would be the perfect manipulation, but like... it does seem like a really risky gambit for the Mafia to do on the first day. So I'll believe Rui.
"Elgyem vaguely corroborated Rui and said Hareta is innocent yesterday, but has now clarified that what she actually learned was that there are zero evil players between Rui and Hareta. This could be true info, in which case Rui was drunk or poisoned, and Hareta is definitely Washerwoman. Or Elgyem could be the Drunk, in which case Rui
can't be the Drunk. Or Elgyem could have been poisoned last night, in which case, again, Rui could not have been poisoned that night. Or Elgyem could be lying, but scum lying specifically to vaguely corroborate and narrow down info they know to be false sounds very unlikely. The
simplest explanation is it's true, and would've been a point of actual evidence in Rui's favor yesterday when we could've really used it, goddamn it."
"Rocky not Drunk because Rocky is other Outsider role. Mathematically impossible to be two Outsider roles at the same time."
The first blue rock was tossed behind him haphazardly, while the second one hovered in front of Rocky's face, held aloft proudly.
"Rocky is Butler, therefore not Drunk!"
"Rocky claims Butler. Butler can't be Drunk. Not much more to say there. Could still be evil and lying but I doubt it."
"Look, I'm the chef, alright? All I know is that there aren't any bad guys sitting next to each other. Which means Elgyem and Spectrier are innocent." He paused, scrunching up his nose. "Unless I'm drunk. Then I don't fucking know anything." Even if he was, though, that would still make Hareta the Scarlet Woman. "I can at least rest assured that if I'm NOT drunk, the information is accurate. It came free with my fucking emera."
"We know 100% that Watt really was the chef. His info is that
no scum are sitting next to each other. Note that that doesn't mean anything about Elgyem and Spectrier; he was extrapolating that based on Hareta being evil, but Hareta's probably not evil. We can use this info later but right now it doesn't tell us anything other than ruling out possible scumteams."
"Oh, I have great news for you, if you're worried about who got the unreliable emera. Earlier, before anyone was claiming, my creepy voice had the chance to run some guesstimates on the odds of my info being accurate or not. Like a loser~ Anyway, the odds of it being true aren't great, but if Rui's drunk then that means it almost certainly is true, and I'd be down to execute you anyway."
"This got overlooked yesterday. Morgan said
she had information that she's pretty sure is not accurate, and implied that if
her info were true she'd be down to execute Watt. Obviously it turned out Watt's innocent. This implies
Morgan would have been drunk or poisoned. Any chance for an elaboration there? Because only one person can be drunk and one poisoned at a time, so if we have a guarantee of something, that'd be great."
@Shiny Phantump