Tefiren stopped pacing in circles and approached the funny-arm Human - the only Human
left, he realised - and stared at the ground in front of him.
"I..." He winced. "I was wrong about you," he said. "And about the thunder cat."
He sighed, wishing he could find some way to make this
exciting, but he couldn't. It was just
hard, and yet he
needed to do it if he wanted to win. "It's definitely not you now. You're the only one it's definitely not. And I can't win this game on my own. So I... I need you to listen to me."
He raised his head a little, staring somewhere at the Human's chest. "I was wrong about the thunder cat, but not... it's not because my
thinking was wrong. All of it, everything I said, made
sense. I'm
clever. I can
figure things out. That's not why I was wrong."
He took a deep breath. (Why was this so
hard? Why did he have to be in the kind of game that made him
need to do this?)
"I was wrong because I didn't
listen to Miya-- to the other Human, the one with the stick.
She figured out that the fun Human got caught by the Arsonist, right away. But I didn't listen to her. I thought it was the Mafia who got him. I was
sure it was the Mafia. Because I was sure of that, everything I said about the thunder cat being a Mafia
made sense. If I'd known it was the Arsonist, I'd never have thought any of that about her, and I'd have gone after the big white bird yesterday instead, and--"
and we both wouldn't have lost someone important
He shook his leaves down, finally looking up at somewhere near the Human's face. "But
listen. I was wrong, because of that. But I'm still
clever. I can
still figure this out. With what everyone's told us about their tricks, we can
figure this out. So, listen..."
[[
(oh man, I never realised in a million years that any mafia game would get Tefiren to confront and learn the concept of
admitting his mistakes, this is wild)
Here follows my big galaxy brain logicpost! I meant to post it a bit earlier but got tired, so here it is now, I guess. Very decidedly
not explained in Tefirenspeech because I absolutely
need people to understand my thinking here. Directed at Wes in-RP mostly for some fun RP but also partly because Wes is the only person I completely trust right now. Still, I want
everyone to read this and try to follow along; it should help out the whole town in trying to figure this thing out.
I know I was wrong before in my logic about about Chappie, but like Tefiren says, that's because I was working from a misguided premise of what happened to Lexx. There shouldn't be any misguided premises here; all of this is based off people's roleclaims and who people have voted for in the past. This is the best thing I can think of to try and solve this game and salvage this disaster, because I don't like our chances if we just start guessing one-by-one.
Like, seriously,
bookmark this post. If I die in the night, which I feel is getting pretty likely for me at this point--]] (a sudden shiver ran over Tefiren from absolutely definitely nowhere at all) [[--then the rest of you can still use the logic I'm going to present here to try and continue to solve this without me.
Okay, so.
These first bits of logic are about our doctors and Nefari, so first I want to establish that I don't believe we have any reason to think any of them are
lying about their roleclaims. If they are mafia, they are mafia with those roles.
(Oh geez, I also wrote this all up before Fusion's roleclaim, uhhhhh. I don't even know what to make of that one. I think, if he's mafia, it's probably just a lie??? Whatever, when I say "doctors", he's not included for the sake of this.)
Logic #1: Only one of the three doctors can be mafia.
That one's fairly self-explanatory. If the mafia had two doctors, they could just overdose whoever they liked every night. That'd be a bit too broken.
I also believe
there's a small chance none of the doctors are mafia at all. Three doctors sounds like a lot, but remember that in Negrek's setup, it's technically not quite three, because Wes is technically only
half a doctor, in that he might not have chosen that. Less than half, because he couldn't use his power on the first two nights. Two-and-a-bit doctors, in a game this size, with overdose to balance it out and give it a downside? I can see it, maybe. Not necessarily very likely, but I don't think it's
impossible.
Logic #2: If Nefari is mafia, Wes and Mewtwo are not.
The mafia wouldn't have two potential-firefighters while the town has none, so it can't be both Nefari and Wes. And Nefari was gunning
really hard to lynch Mewtwo yesterday evening, so I highly doubt it can be both Nefari and Mewtwo.
Now to move onto some of today's roleclaimers. Altair and Alexander's roleclaims are pretty interesting, because they're both rather obscure roles that I barely knew and definitely wasn't expecting to see in this game - and they're both roles that revolve around the idea of actions being
impeded in some way. Altair can check if that happened to someone's action, while Alexander can ensure that someone's action is not impeded.
Because of how neatly they complement each other, it feels like these two roles together both came from the same mind. Which is to say, they either both came from Negrek when Negrek was deciding on this game's role setup and are therefore the truth, or they came from mafia!Alexander, Mafia!Altair and their other scummates when they were collectively coming up with fakeclaims to plan to make. It seems extremely likely to me that this is either the truth for both of them, or a lie that they're
both in on. So!
Logic #3: Alexander and Altair are very likely either BOTH innocent, or BOTH mafia.
Alexander and Altair, each of you listen to this. If you're innocent, you should trust each other, at least a fair amount.
This logic of mine isn't
definite - it's
possible that one of the two just happened to come up with a fakeclaim that coincidentally fit well with the other's actual role - but that feels like it'd be a very big coincidence with how obscure these two roles are. I know Alexander claimed second and could have improvised his to match Altair's? But he said he'd been hinting at the nature of his role this whole time, so if his is a fakeclaim, it would have been planned since before Altair's claim. I still need to go back through Alexander's posts to see those hints again for myself, but for now I think I buy that he'd had this claim planned all along, innocent or not.
(Or I
suppose it's possible that one or both of these two might just genuinely have those roles as mafiosi. Strengthener sure sounds like a way to get a strongman kill, but then... why wasn't
everyone killed by a huge chasm in the ground? Is it one-shot? Would a mafia who actually has that power go and
claim it instead of making up something else that makes them look less like a mafia superweapon? And meanwhile, Checker seems barely useful for mafia, even less so than it is for town.)
Then, assuming Alexander and Altair are telling us the truth about their roles (and are therefore most likely both innocent)... think about what it'd mean for the setup of this game, to have those two roles in it. This is apparently a game that really wants to revolve around
roleblockers and rolestoppers, and giving town ways around that. Sure, we're pretty certain there's been a mafia roleblocker hiding somewhere from the start (someone got in Jesse's way on N0), but... that's only
one person's role that Alexander and Altair's powers would be any use against. And, yeah, their powers could also help us with Nefari's rolestopping - but if Nefari is on our side, is that necessary? If Nefari's on our side and might not even
become a rolestopper at all, do we really need
two town roles to be about this?
It feels to me like including a town Checker and Strengthener in the game implies that the mafia probably has
more than one ability to impede people's actions. Like maybe they have their own rolestopper - or at least, that they
could have a rolestopper, if they so chose. So!
Logic #4: If Alexander and Altair are innocent, Nefari is significantly more likely to be mafia.
And the reverse applies, too; if Alexander and Altair are lying about their roles and we don't actually have a Checker and a Strengthener in the game, Nefari is looking a lot more likely to be innocent.
(Oh geez, I have also not taken into account Fusion's semi-roleblocker claim here, but also I don't know if we have any reason to be sure that claim is
true, so.)
Then there's Kyros's roleclaim, which frustratingly doesn't connect to anything else. It could be the truth, but it also feels like a completely safe fakeclaim for the mafia to make - good excuse for why you didn't claim until now, unfalsifiable until death, and discourages people from lynching you. So I just don't know. There's not much I can figure out logic-wise from Kyros based on his roleclaim. (And yeah, I'm not sure what to make of Fusion's, either, because what do you meeeaaan four potential doctors aaaa.)
However! There is one thing about Kyros and Fusion that connects them. Kyros voted for Fusion on the day we lynched Lance, and seemed fairly interested in potentially getting a bandwagon going on it. That didn't actually happen in the end, but it potentially could have done. I think that'd have been a very risky play for Kyros to do if he was mafia and so was Fusion. Therefore...
Logic #5: Kyros and Fusion BOTH being mafia is very unlikely.
And also, during that day's voting, Alexander expressed interest in potentially switching his vote from Lance to Fusion as well if other people agreed. Simply talking about it is less of a risk of getting Fusion lynched than actually voting for him, but that still seems like a risky move for him if he and Fusion are scummates. So, also...
Logic #5b: Alexander and Fusion BOTH being mafia is somewhat unlikely.
So those are all the logic-combinations I can come up with for now, based on the information we have. With these, and
with my assumption (god I hope I'm right) that there's only three mafiosi left, we can make some theories as to the potential composition of the mafia team.
Let's start with Alexander and Altair, because them being so conveniently paired together like that helps narrow things down. So let's take Logic #3, and choose, for the sake of argument, the option where they're both mafia. Who'd be the final one? Probably not Nefari; see #4. Probably not Fusion; see #5b. And... look guys I just really don't think it's Wes at all, okay, I guess I'll throw him on the end there but I don't really want to.
Possible Mafia Composition A:
Alexander; Altair; Kyros/Braixen/Mewtwo/(Wes)
So that's one possibility, albeit with some uncertainty on the final member.
Now, how about if we take Logic #3 and choose the other option, where Alexander and Altair are both
innocent? That makes Nefari look a lot guiltier, so let's put her in there; see #4. Then, if it's Nefari, it can't be Wes or Mewtwo; see #2 - so the mafia doctor must be Braixen, if there's a mafia doctor at all. The other two possible suspects (except me, but I know it's not me, guys, trust me) that Nefari doesn't rule out are Kyros and Fusion - but wait, it can't be
both of those, because of #5. So Braixen
must be a mafia doctor in this instance, to even be able to fill out all three slots.
Possible Mafia Composition B:
Nefari; Braixen; Kyros/Fusion
These are the only two possible mafia compositions, you guys. Yes, there's a small amount of uncertainty and room for unlikely coincidences or strange past voting choices that'd make my logic not hold, but these two possibilities I'm presenting are
by far the most likely.
I really believe it this time. I don't think I'm running this off of any mistaken assumptions about the facts like I was with Chappie. (But of course, if you see any holes in my logic,
please point them out to me. And also, if there's anything you don't understand about what I'm saying here,
please ask.)
We're too close to losing to be able to afford to just
guess. We need to lynch someone who we both think is pretty likely to be mafia because we can barely afford to mislynch, and who might also
give us information as to which of these possibilities we're on, so that we can figure out the
rest.
(And, yeah, all of this is predicated on me not even being a potential candidate for mafia, obviously, because I did all this thinking from my perspective where I know it's not me. I'm assuming you all trust me enough that you're at least reasonably willing to write me off as not a very likely suspect. For what it's worth, even if you did consider lynching me today, I don't think that'd give you any information at all as to which possibility we're on, because my role doesn't link to anybody else's, and the only person here I once tried unsuccessfully to get lynched was the person I now very vocally trust, so I don't think my voting history tells you anything either.)
...
So, I
was going to suggest lynching Nefari today, since I'm starting to get pretty suspicious of her. See, I think I'm getting a good enough feeling from Alexander and Altair collectively that I want to believe at least
one of them isn't mafia, and if one isn't then neither should be, and we're on Composition B, and it's Nefari. Buuuut also that feels a bit unfair to do that when DawningWinds isn't here today to defend themselves. And also this idea is apparently still wildly controversial to the entire rest of the town, so :/
My other proposal, then, is we lynch Braixen. If we're wrong and he flips innocent, at least we get information. We know we can't be on B, because that one
has to contain Braixen, so we're definitely on A, so we can get to lynching Alexander and Altair next and
maybe salvage things. Meanwhile, if Braixen flips mafia, we could still be on either possibility - but at least we didn't mislynch, and the mafia's lost their doctor so they can't overdose anyone and get two kills, and then tomorrow we can get back to figuring out which composition we're on (maybe by actually looking at Nefari this time, please, guys?).
Though, honestly, I'm not entirely sure what the best approach is. I'm very not familiar with how to handle these endgame scenarios where things are getting scarily close to mislynch-and-lose.
So, because all of this thinking I've done here is pointless if I'm the only one who makes a decision based on it - thoughts, everyone?
]]
