[MAFIA WIN] Second Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[elyvorg]

[[

That said, I think lynching Mewtwo OR Braixen is probably a safe bet and it’s likely that both of them are Mafia, IMO

Why do you think there could be two mafia doctors? That wouldn't make any sense. If they had two doctors, they could just overdose anybody they wanted and get a near-guaranteed extra kill every single night. That's not what's been happening, and if it were, it wouldn't be balanced at all.

The only way in which Braixen and Mewtwo could both be mafia is if Braixen is lying about being a healer and is something else. Except, if he's fakeclaiming his role, then that's definitely something he deliberately did with this timing to get us to turn on Mewtwo - and why would he do that if Mewtwo were on his side?

It can't be both of them.

And, yeah, listen to what Alexander said about our numbers. We literally can't be in the minority; that isn't how Mafia works.

Please take a look at my logicpost (back at the end of page 40), too. There's a lot of mutually exclusive combinations of people on there who more or less can't be mafia together, so I believe the chances of it being as many as you think are a lot lower than you're assuming!

Plus, remember that there's two third-parties in the game. Nineteen players, with six mafia and two third-parties among them? Only eleven townies against that, with all these possible killing powers in play? We'd never stand a chance. Twelve against five-and-two is still a stretch. I really think it's most sensible to assume that there were only four mafia, and there are only three left.

Mewtwo, on the other hand, had some inconsistencies pointed out in his play, and I didn’t find his defense super convincing. And immediately after pointing this out, Dave was killed. Sure, it could be Mafia trying to get us to lunch Mewtwo anyway, but more likely I think it’s because he was an experienced player and was starting to reveal their cover, so they did away with him before he could do more damage.

Do you know why the mafia killed Dave last night?

Because he would have changed his mind about Mewtwo today.

Suspicions shifting, targets he burningly wanted to ask some fucking questions.

Look at that. His suspicions were shifting. He wanted to ask people questions - implying he'd not gotten to ask those people those questions the evening before, meaning he wasn't thinking of Mewtwo.

Yesterday evening, Dragonfree was caught up in that sudden excitement of having a new theory, feeling like she'd solved a puzzle and that all the pieces fit together to point towards someone obviously being guilty. There wasn't enough time before the end of the day for her to sit and mull it over and realise that all of it was really pretty circumstantial and Mewtwo's defenses were quite reasonable. In that moment, in those last frantic hours of the day, she was sure she was right.

I know this, because this is exactly how I felt about you at the beginning of Day 3. And I was wrong.

That's how Mafia works. People suspect each other for what can often be the tiniest, most circumstantial of reasons, desperately trying to find meaning and reason for suspicion wherever we can, because we have to. It's messy. You and several others whom I now either know or believe are innocent felt that first-hand. Our suspicions aren't always right, and sometimes, we make big mistakes because of it. Dragonfree is an experienced enough player that she would have realised that, given time overnight and into today.

The Mafia killed Dave last night because they wanted our last memory of him, of Dragonfree, to be this:

"I'll tell you why: you're the fucking mafia doctor."

[[I have been rereading and have a lot of thoughts but hello yes this is the biggest one, Mewtwo biggest scumread now, I still think we should lynch Chappie today but I'm gunning for Mewtwo tomorrow if I live, or if not I dearly hope someone else will do it for me]]

...and not what I looked like later on in Day 3 towards you, when I was starting to realise that you might actually be town after all and all my reasons for suspecting you were circumstantial at best. The reasons Dave had for suspecting Mewtwo are just as circumstantial. If you're innocent despite someone having once suspected you this hard, in this way, there's no reason Mewtwo can't be as well.

They killed Dave because they wanted us to lynch Mewtwo - because we wouldn't have done that today if Dave had still been alive.

Please. Trust me.

I trust you, even though I disagree with your thinking right now. I trust Alexander at this point, after the discussions we've been having about my logic and his role. I trust Mewtwo, more or less. More than I trust Braixen, at least, and it cannot be both of them together. Please trust my judgement.

I know I'm not very good at suspecting the right people - but I think I'm pretty good at trusting the right people, in the end. That's what won my team the last game. I believe we can still win this one, too.

]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[ It is impossible for there to be six Mafia right now. Unless the core rule of Mafia has changed in this game, Mafia wins if they are a majority. With only ten players, the absolute max number of Mafia members is 5 right now, and that would be an exact tie with Town+3rd party. ]]



"I didn't suggest an idea because I didn't have any," Alexander growled back. "I don't want to repeat myself more than I need to, but it is plain to me that a system that is both secure and transparent would be needed to minimize the likelihood of Mafia outnumbering us. Rgh, and speaking of repeating myself... Yes. It was very clear to me that after what happened at the end of yesterday, Mewtwo seemed suspicious. But as you can see with this little game, things can change very rapidly as new information comes to light, and new behaviors come to light.

"That strange behavior was Braixen's ill-timed and frankly strange decision to call Doctor as if to replace Mewtwo as a potentially faux-benevolent healer. That suggests that not only are the Mafia not at a tie right now, but they could be setting up for a subtle setup of getting the least suspicious individuals of their team to last to the end.

"I know how these games go. I have seen all of the recordings. Mafia do not take this long to be found, and this is a particularly large game compared to previous ones. Between being plainly unable to find any of them through voting--until now, perhaps--followed by so many of us falling so rapidly, I have a guess on this game's... meta. We are dealing with a high-lethality environment with a small, nimble Mafia squadron.

"That explains a lot of what has been happening, and also the lack of kills on the first night. If the Mafia is small, then perhaps by some coincidence they were unable to land a kill, and with all the late-awakening powers, perhaps the Arsonist, Serial Killer, or whatever other killing third-party role did not kick in until the following nights. Arsonist inherently cannot kill on Night 0 due to how their power works.

"Tefiren had outlined a lot of reasoning that only reinforced my thought process. Had I not been busy meditating"--screaming a the sky [[while I was at work]]--"I might have cast my vote toward Mewtwo myself with a brief explanation based on the previous day's events... but one of the first statements here was by a rogue Zoroark-Braixen claiming yet another healing role as it became most convenient. Regardless of that, I would have certainly redirected to Braixen anyway.

"It had me... thinking. And while yes, very little was said by this individual before, what has been said--ahem, not to mention the literal slip-up that had been uttered--has done nothing but raise my suspicions. I am unconvinced that Mewtwo is a more secure vote today."

The only way in which Braixen and Mewtwo could both be mafia is if Braixen is lying about being a healer and is something else. Except, if he's fakeclaiming his role, then that's definitely something he deliberately did with this timing to get us to turn on Mewtwo - and why would he do that if Mewtwo were on his side?

It can't be both of them.

[[Ah, so we know it’s not six—then we should be playing as if it’s 5 vs 5, then. Though technically, if that’s the case, it’s 4 town vs 5 mafia vs 1 third party, which means we are outnumbered and we are totally screwed if we vote the wrong person.

And you know, you have a good point that Braixen and Mewtwo can’t BOTH be the mafia doctor, which makes me wonder something else:

What if Braixen is third party, then? If Alexander is Mafia, then of course he’ll want us to lunch the suspected third party member because that still nets a win for mafia. I’m telling you right now that I don’t trust Alexander—the numbers don’t line up. I know for a fact that I trust Nefari, Altair, and you. I can’t afford to put my faith in anyone else, not with these numbers and not with such little info on anyone else.

I do trust you! But I think saying that the Mafia killed Dave so that we wouldn’t fulfill his dying wishes is quite a stretch. He made it very clear he was going to gun straight for Mewtwo, and then he immediately ends up killed. To me, that reads like the mafia is trying to protect themselves and protect their potentially strongest player.

I know we don’t agree on this, but pleeeease give me the benefit of the doubt just this once! 😭 If I’m wrong, you have my full permission to send Tefiren after Wes and harass him until the end of his days, LOL. Idk what else I can say that will convince you, but I’m very set on Mewtwo for a whole host of reasons. Sometimes in mafia, people use reverse psychology, it’s true. But other times, it really is as straightforward as it looks! And that’s what I’m betting on, here.]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

[[I'm low on brainpoints today, so no RP. It's just occurred to me now, but I wanted to throw this out -- If anyone else had immediately roleclaimed at the beginning of the day, claimed a role that was extaordinarily convenient, I'd be incredibly suspicious too. But it's also for that reason that if I was mafia, 9 times out of ten it would not have done it this way without a calculated purpose.

Mafia has access to information we don't. They likely communicate the same way we do during the nights. They don't have the numbers or luxury to fumble around like town does. For this reason, it's important to view any mafia actions as strategy and not slipup. If I was mafia, going rogue and doing something reckless wouldn't be seen as okay by the other Mafia. I would have had double the time (plus a half, even, counting the nineteenish hours I had of the night) to get my bearings in this game, and if I hadn't I'd have my ass kicked into gear for me.

But let's assume for the sake of argument that I am mafia, and that I roleclaimed in this way to make a fakeclaim about myself. The train of logic indicates that I did it because I want you to lynch me, and not Mewtwo.

- Presumably, the mafia communicate during the night the same way Town does during the day. I don't know for sure, obviously, but it's not fair on Mafia if the town can convene and they can't. As Namo/Alexander pointed out, there can't be more than five max currently, so it's a smaller group than the town. And compared to Town, they're well-off. Less chaos. more information, dedicated purpose. I'd be going into this day with a much better understanding of what was done, as well as a strategy for the coming day. This means that if I fakeclaimed, it's extremely likely that I did it on purpose. Why? To create confusion and/or divert attention. Who was on the lynchpad next? Mewtwo, the next doctor claim suspected of being mafia. I would have fakeclaimed to divert attention to myself instead of Mewtwo.

- Why would I have done this? If there wasn't some inherent value to the mafia by keeping Mewtwo around, even if just for another day, it's like trading one mafia for another -- only, now you know to go after me first and Mewtwo next. In this scenario, you still want to lynch Mewtwo. If one mafia is sacrificing themselves to keep another one around, there's a darn good reason for that.

- Let's assume my hypothetical plan has another step. Let's also assume, for the sake of argument, that Mewto is innocent. Instead of wanting to get people to lynch me, my plan is to get people to lynch Mewtwo, by "slipping up" and then convincing people that I'm innocent. Presumably, if all goes well, they'll find Mewtwo is innocent, and then turn on Wes since I've been "cleared" -- winning the game for mafia (assuming a party of four or five. Though I doubt there'd be only three in a game of originally 19 players.) This doesn't make sense unless the game is not on the verge of parity, since it bargains for another day. And even then, it's incredibly risky, as it revolves around so many uncontrollable variables. And without that extra day, it's just a snag in the plan. I could hang back, let Mewtwo take the fall, and then win the game for mafia once we nightkill (either bringing the game to parity with the death of a second innocent, or winning the game for mafia). It's risky, and it doesn't make sense.

What seems more likely to me is this:

- I, as town, slip up and make an unfortunate decision
- The mafia sees an opportunity, and decides to cast suspicion off Mewtwo and onto me. This is part of why the switch from Mewtwo to me was so abrupt, and why Namo and Elyvorg are so passionate about arguing for my lynching. Presumably, those are two of your mafia members right there. Plus Mewtwo, if my theory holds water.]]

 

[Namohysip]

"...Did your Guardian Spirit just call the most solidly proven living innocent a potential Mafia."

 

[HelloYellow17]

The mafia sees an opportunity, and decides to cast suspicion off Mewtwo and onto me. This is part of why the switch from Mewtwo to me was so abrupt, and why Namo and Elyvorg are so passionate about arguing for my lynching. Presumably, those are two of your mafia members right there. Plus Mewtwo, if my theory holds water.]]

Wes scoffed. “Well, damn. You made a solid argument and almost had me, until you accused Tefiren of being Mafia.” He shook his head. “The rest of your argument still stands, though, and it’s a good one. I believe Tefiren is genuine and wants to do the right thing...but I can’t say the same of everyone else.”

 

[windskull]

[[I definitely follow your logic on this one, although I do want to express caution against assuming that there's only three mafia left. It's not impossible, and I'm certain there's somewhere between 3 and 5 mafia, with four seeming the most likely. Which would mean we're one wrong move away from Elo. How that would affect your setup suspicions, I dunno. Too tired to work that out. But that's why I'm gonna sleep on who I want to place my vote on. But I definitely think it should be Braixen or Mewtwo.

There is definitely some suspicious activity on Mewtwo's part. His previous fake softclaim feels... a little dangerous for a town doctor. And his nudge towards Wes revealing his role I could see being something innocent or more malicious in intent. But nothing else about him really sticks out to me?

On the espy side of things. The fact that dave died and she reveals her role immediately after feels a bit... too convenient to me? Like. I could absolutely see it as a town move, don't get me wrong. Especially since she's a late arrival. But if she had revealed yesterday, it would have possibly taken the train off of Chappie, which the mafia would not have wanted. Doing so right after the player that most suspected Mewtwo only serves to make Mewtwo look more suspicious. Which, if he is mafia, would be pretty bad luck on the mafia's part. If he's not though? It's an easy way to get a lynch train going.

That said... I think Espy is right that it's highly unlikely both of them are mafia But maybe that's just what she wants us to think. But... IDK. I need to sleep on it. I am pretty sure I know which way my vote is going to go, but I'll cast it in the morning. I promise I'll have voted before EoD though.

 

[windskull]

[[note on prev. post: "I follow your logic" is in response to elyvorg]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

[[...huh

I didn't realize Elyvorg/Tefiren had anything going for them; I thought DF and DW were the only ones we were sure were town. Amend that part of the argument, then?

I guess my lack of knowledge on this particular game is showing. again. :V]]

 

[Namohysip]

"Mmmmhm." Alexander drifted across the plane again, contemplating what everyone was vouching for.

"Braixen's hypotheticals rely on the premise of that thing"--he gestured to Tefiren--"and I working together as Mafia co-conspirators, and therefore I'm dismissing it on the outset. I don't see anything in the argument that is not soundly explained by the previous logic of Tefiren and the Guardian Spirit above him. Additionally..."

What if Braixen is third party, then?

"If Braixen is third party, I will personally eat Fusion's tail." He gestured to the alien. "...I see no way that's possible with how strange their behavior and claims have become. At this point, third-party is more likely to be someone trying to lay low or at least not give any hint toward being aligned with Mafia--something that Braixen is not doing by claiming Doctor the moment Mafia would need someone to put the nail in the coffin for a misfire against an innocent healer.

"If anybody has a chance of being third party at this point, it would be... that thing." He gestured to the Lugia in the horizon. "Or someone who is being very clever about laying low and blending in. And if we're going to entertain that whole Psychic Mark theory... Lugia is Psychic. But I do not really know if that applies. I am still skeptical about such clues being so easily handed out to us."

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[...huh

I didn't realize Elyvorg/Tefiren had anything going for them; I thought DF and DW were the only ones we were sure were town. Amend that part of the argument, then?

I guess my lack of knowledge on this particular game is showing. again. :V]]

[[Ah yes, Tefiren’s innocence was established on D1 as he claimed bulletproof, which was used up on N0–which also explains why there were no deaths that night. I also challenged this theory and got dissed HARD because my theory was stupid LOL. Anyways, that was all very early in the game so I don’t blame you for not being aware of it.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Ah yes, Tefiren’s innocence was established on D1 as he claimed bulletproof, which was used up on N0–which also explains why there were no deaths that night. I also challenged this theory and got dissed HARD because my theory was stupid LOL. Anyways, that was all very early in the game so I don’t blame you for not being aware of it.]]

[[LOLOLOL sussed, not dissed. I suppose those could occasionally be one and the same. 😂]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

[[Perhaps strike the last part. There's a lot flying around, a lot of big posts flying around, and I still don't have the best grasp on where everyone stands sus-wise. And I guess Wind has a point that the scenario presented -- that I roleclaimed, and assuming people thought I was innocent, that would put suspicion on Mewtwo for sure -- holds up. But that's assuming people thought I was innocent. Even I knew the post reflected bad on me when I wrote it up; I said the same earlier in the thread. I only would have done it that way if I thought that getting the role out there was more important than getting the role out there, and looking good while doing it. Which, a mafia would want to do, to make sure that plan falls through.

I suppose there's not much that I can do to convince anyone from my position. Either way, it's a blunder. But I do think it's worth considering looking at the scenario, and asking if it looks more like a mafia blunder, or a town blunder.]]

 

[Disco]

"Love you too, Alexander!", the Lugia hollered back at his remark.

 

[elyvorg]

[[Okay, first another (and probably my last) attempt to persuade Wes, and then I will get to Braixen's post, because oh boy.

[[Ah, so we know it’s not six—then we should be playing as if it’s 5 vs 5, then. Though technically, if that’s the case, it’s 4 town vs 5 mafia vs 1 third party, which means we are outnumbered and we are totally screwed if we vote the wrong person.

If it's five vs five - that is to say, five vs four vs one, then we're already screwed. Namco isn't gonna help us, you know. Or whoever else the third party might be (but it's totally Namco). Even if Mewtwo really is guilty, even if you convinced me to change my vote to Mewtwo (which I won't) and every one of the four people you're sure are town voted that, the five mafia could just vote Braixen and it'd be over.

But, really, it's not as bleak as you think! I know mislynching Chappie was rough - believe me, I was more upset about it than anyone - and I know seeing two people dead this morning, including our most trusted person, was daunting. But I think you're getting more paranoid than you need to be. Yes, all of these people you don't implicitly trust could be mafia, but that doesn't mean they definitely all are.

You saw my "readlist" earlier today, right? Where I listed literally everyone except you and Namco under the category "AAAAAAAAAAAAA"? That wasn't because I thought all of them were mafia. It was just because I knew any of them could be, and I didn't know how to be sure of which ones, and I knew that if we made one mistake and got it wrong it might all be over. I still knew that there were some people in there who were on my side and I should be trusting, but I just didn't know who.

But now, I'm not nearly so worried! Everyone's roleclaims really helped me narrow things down and use some logic to deduce that there's actually only a very small set of possibilities for what the mafia teams could be, and I think I know which possibility it is at this point. Have you read my big logicpost? Because if not, you should, and please try to understand what I'm getting at with it! Things aren't as scary as they seem right now, really. We've got this.

And you know, you have a good point that Braixen and Mewtwo can’t BOTH be the mafia doctor, which makes me wonder something else:

What if Braixen is third party, then? If Alexander is Mafia, then of course he’ll want us to lunch the suspected third party member because that still nets a win for mafia. I’m telling you right now that I don’t trust Alexander—the numbers don’t line up. I know for a fact that I trust Nefari, Altair, and you. I can’t afford to put my faith in anyone else, not with these numbers and not with such little info on anyone else.

I'm glad you understand that Braixen and Mewtwo can't both be mafia! That way, hopefully you won't want to lynch Mewtwo any more tomorrow if you see that I'm right about Braixen today.

The third party idea... doesn't make sense, though? If Braixen is third party, what would be the motive for him fakeclaiming doctor? Either he actually is a doctor and just genuinely claimed, or he claimed because he's trying to get us to lynch Mewtwo (though in the latter case he's probably still a doctor, just a mafia one). As third-party, there's just no reason to do that out of nowhere right then. And if he was third-party, why would Alexander know that? Claiming doctor is not a screamingly-third-party move.

Alexander is voting for Braixen because I voted for Braixen first. *I* don't think Braixen is a third party and that's not why I'm voting for him, so why does Alexander's motive have to be different and less genuine than mine just because you trust me and you don't trust him? Can't it be that he's just also seeing things the way I am?

Again, just because Alexander isn't one of the people you implicitly trust, doesn't mean he's definitely mafia. It just means he might be. It's also entirely possible that he's on our side and voting with me because he really does agree with the reasons I'm voting for this.

I do trust you! But I think saying that the Mafia killed Dave so that we wouldn’t fulfill his dying wishes is quite a stretch. He made it very clear he was going to gun straight for Mewtwo, and then he immediately ends up killed. To me, that reads like the mafia is trying to protect themselves and protect their potentially strongest player.

You're the one who's trying to tell me that the mafia killed Dave so that we somehow wouldn't fulfil his dying wishes. I'm trying to tell you that they killed him so that we would, which is why we shouldn't!

Do you really think that the mafia, all of them - however many you believe there are - are all so stupid that they thought, if they killed Dave, that nobody would even consider going after the last person Dave was openly gunning for before he died? Do you really think they thought we'd just forget all about Mewtwo if Dave was dead, that Mewtwo would be safe, and that what you're doing is some big unexpected thwarting of their plan? Dragonfree literally even said that if she died, she wanted us to continue to gun for Mewtwo in her place. There's no way the mafia weren't expecting at least some of us to at least think about doing just that.

Yes, this is reverse psychology, because the forwards psychology in this situation - thinking we'd just merrily ignore Mewtwo completely and move on with our lives if they killed Dave - is way too stupid and would never have worked. The reverse psychology option is the only option here that makes any kind of sense as a mafia plan. And it's apparently working on you, to a very stubbornness-inducing degree, which makes it all the more likely to me that that is indeed what they were trying to go for.

(One thing I learned from my first game last year, thanks to my spectacular Day 3 bus driver mislynch back then: Tunnel visioning very hard onto one possibility is bad and can easily lead to mistakes. It almost led to me lynching you this game. It seems like that's what you're getting caught up in doing here - you're feeling paranoid, and you're convinced that Mewtwo must be guilty because you want to be right and to make a difference, to the point that you're deliberately ignoring all of the possible ways he could just... not be. Please, take a step back and try to see things how I'm seeing them. It makes a lot of sense from my perspective, I promise!)

So, no, I'm not budging from my vote. I'm voting Braixen, and I think enough of the others - others that I'm becoming increasingly sure are on our side - are going to be able to be convinced to vote Braixen too, so that we can get this lynch through even though you're against me. (It helps that Nefari isn't here today, because I strongly suspect she would be voting Mewtwo, and I don't think that's a good thing.) And then we'll see how Braixen flips, and which of us is right.

(And I'm pretty damn sure I am right now, after seeing Braixen's post, but I'll get to that in a sec.)

But! Even if I'm wrong, I have a backup plan! Because if Braixen flips innocent, we'll get information about the rest of the mafia's make-up! My logic in that big post of mine determined that there's only two possible compositions of the mafia, and only one of them can work without Braixen in it. So we'll know who to go for next, and hopefully there'll still be enough time for us to make it, especially if your healing manages to save someone tonight, or at any point. And you'll get to say "I told you so" if we're both still alive the next day.

((For anyone else reading this, in case they missed it because it's a couple of pages back by now: my big logicpost. That is the most important post I have ever made or will ever make in this thread. I have solved this game, actually for real this time, and I want you to understand how, so that you can all vote for the right people with me.))]]

 

[elyvorg]

[[So, just to make sure everyone else is clear on this: Braixen's big defense post makes some really nonsensical and deliberately manipulative points and basically just confirmed for us that he's mafia.

[[I'm low on brainpoints today, so no RP. It's just occurred to me now, but I wanted to throw this out -- If anyone else had immediately roleclaimed at the beginning of the day, claimed a role that was extaordinarily convenient, I'd be incredibly suspicious too. But it's also for that reason that if I was mafia, 9 times out of ten it would not have done it this way without a calculated purpose.

The very-much-mafia-planned point of you roleclaiming is that, in order to make an solid argument for Mewtwo as mafia-doctor, there had to be a regular town doctor in the setup as well, for a mafia doctor to be of any real use trying to cause overdoses with. Wes doesn't quite count for that, because he could have potentially not chosen to be a doctor at all, and then a mafia doctor would have been basically useless. (Not quite; it could protect scummates from vigkills, but other than that, not much use.)

Plus, town only having one doctor that might have actually chosen to be a firefighter instead really isn't very much town doctor power at all. This was even something Dave brought up during the quick-fire Mewtwo interrogation yesterday evening:

[[It does give me pause that if Wes is our only town doctor, and he only became a doctor because he chose it but could have chosen another role, that's really not a lot of doctor power for the town to work with. I don't really want any possible other doctor to claim right now, but.]]

Therefore, a "town" doctor needed to suddenly appear on the morning of Dave's death in order to complete the story and make Mewtwo look perfectly guilty. Otherwise people would have questioned his guilt more. And indeed, it looks like Wes only voted Mewtwo after you'd claimed, not before.

So, like. That's the argument. That's all there is to it. It does make perfectly decent sense for the mafia to have planned this, in an attempt to frame Mewtwo.

But also, can we just, like, talk about this whole post? Not just the arguments presented in it - because, literally what I've written above is all I need to refute the actual argument and present a perfectly logical reason why this would have been planned by the mafia - but also, just the way it's written. In short, almost every single bit of this strikes me as off, and I am now pretty much 100% convinced you really are mafia. I wasn't completely sure before! So, uh, thanks for letting me know that and making me much less nervous about tonight's lynch, I guess.

It's, like, almost all of this post is pretty much just elaborate misdirection, talking around the actual point and trying to make it sound like you totally have lots of valid reasoning without actually saying much. You go into great detail about how mafia teams work (as if we don't already know that, yeah, the mafia get to communicate and have more info than us and can make plans based on that) in what appears to be a reverse psychology attempt to convince us that if you were actually mafia and had done this, you must have wanted to be caught. Because, you know, obviously mafia plans are definitely always 100% perfect and flawless and no townies ever see through them, and if a mafioso ever gets found out and lynched, it must have been on purpose of them, right?

No. Obviously. People slip up, even mafiosi who get to work in teams. This was a slip-up. It was a thought-out plan for a purpose that you were hoping would fool everybody into voting Mewtwo, but you misjudged it. Your slip-up was that you underestimated my, or anyone else's, ability to see through it. No mafia plan is flawless and can't be seen through in some way. If they were, the innocents would never win these games.]]

Tefiren grinned a wide, fierce grin at the purple fox. "I told you! You can't fool me!"

- Why would I have done this? If there wasn't some inherent value to the mafia by keeping Mewtwo around, even if just for another day, it's like trading one mafia for another -- only, now you know to go after me first and Mewtwo next. In this scenario, you still want to lynch Mewtwo. If one mafia is sacrificing themselves to keep another one around, there's a darn good reason for that.

[[And then there's the whole part where you're trying to insist that if the totally-hypothetical mafia!you did this on purpose and expected to get caught for it, it'd actually be to distract attention away from Mewtwo, and so we should all totally lynch Mewtwo next. Do you really think we're going to listen to that when you flip mafia, thus proving that we shouldn't trust a word you've said? You apparently really want to take Mewtwo down one way or another, even if it's only along with you, but this is very obviously not going to work.]]

- Let's assume my hypothetical plan has another step. Let's also assume, for the sake of argument, that Mewto is innocent. Instead of wanting to get people to lynch me, my plan is to get people to lynch Mewtwo, by "slipping up" and then convincing people that I'm innocent. Presumably, if all goes well, they'll find Mewtwo is innocent, and then turn on Wes since I've been "cleared" -- winning the game for mafia (assuming a party of four or five. Though I doubt there'd be only three in a game of originally 19 players.) This doesn't make sense unless the game is not on the verge of parity, since it bargains for another day. And even then, it's incredibly risky, as it revolves around so many uncontrollable variables. And without that extra day, it's just a snag in the plan. I could hang back, let Mewtwo take the fall, and then win the game for mafia once we nightkill (either bringing the game to parity with the death of a second innocent, or winning the game for mafia). It's risky, and it doesn't make sense.

[[I don't even get this part at all. You seem to be saying that this was, one way or another - apparently still by insisting that your slip-up was totally 100% planned - an attempt to get us to mislynch Mewtwo and then maybe Wes, somehow without lynching you first. Except then you're saying (I think, hard to tell with all the confusing statements that don't actually logically follow on from each other) that the mafia wouldn't do that, because they're too close to a majority to afford to have the town mislynch? That's literally backwards and exactly why the mafia does want us to mislynch! We're the ones who need to be extremely careful right now and can't risk making any mistakes! Not you guys in the mafia!]]

[[...huh

I didn't realize Elyvorg/Tefiren had anything going for them; I thought DF and DW were the only ones we were sure were town. Amend that part of the argument, then?

I guess my lack of knowledge on this particular game is showing. again. :V]]

Tefiren cocked his head at the purple fox, still grinning. "Hm? You didn't know that everybody trusts me, but you knew that everybody trusts the smaller fox? Even though both our reasons for people trusting us happened on the first day, when you weren't even here?"

He giggled. "How interesting! Thanks for telling us that!"

[[Everyone, when Braixen flips mafia, think about this. How would he have known that everybody trusted Nefari, if he didn't even know that everybody also trusted me?

---

(But also, to step away from playing the game for a moment, Espeon, you still have my sympathies for having come into this game halfway through with so little idea of all the shenanigans that've been going on. That can't have been easy. I'm not going to hold the fact that you tried to sus me as a point against you, because you weren't around for the reason why everyone trusts me and so you can't be expected to have known.)

(...I am amused, though, at how it's apparently become something of a running gag in this game that anybody who tries to sus me instantly gets in trouble for it. Lusamine literally got vigged because of it, I mean, damn.)

[[Ah yes, Tefiren’s innocence was established on D1 as he claimed bulletproof, which was used up on N0–which also explains why there were no deaths that night. I also challenged this theory and got dissed HARD because my theory was stupid LOL. Anyways, that was all very early in the game so I don’t blame you for not being aware of it.]]

!!! But--! Me claiming bulletproof in and of itself is not why my innocence was established, and you thinking of it that way was exactly why I sussed you! asdgasdfa

...It's fine, I trust you now anyway, there's no point me explaining the whole thing again, I am just sad when people don't understand the point of Tefiren's totally very clever and exciting guessing game. :<
]]

 

[elyvorg]

Tefiren stared in frustration at the Human as he still stubbornly refused to listen or admit he was wrong about the think-talky one. Tefiren had been agitatedly trying to explain to him exactly why that was obviously what the Mafia wanted, and how he'd figured it all out, and things were actually going to be fine and they would win this so long as the Human listened to him, but none of it had got anywhere. It was starting to feel like they were just talking around in circles. This game and all the talking it required was so annoying.

But he'd also realised, as their argument had gone on, and he'd been paying attention in the background to the things the rest of the group were saying - some of the others were listening to him and his thinking, even if this Human wasn't, and some of them were saying some very interesting things - that he wasn't feeling quite as agitated any more. In fact, he was starting to feel a little bit excited about things again! It didn't seem nearly so urgent that the Human in particular had to listen to him, not if everybody else was doing so, not if he knew now that the Human wasn't the only person it definitely couldn't be.

Tefiren stared a little bit more at the Human and huffed. "Fine!" he said. "If you're not going to listen to me even after I told you to listen and explained everything, then go ahead and be wrong! I don't need you to win this, anyway!"

And he stalked off, muttering under his breath, "Not like I didn't try to get him to listen. Not my fault."

(He wasn't sure who he was saying that to. It shouldn't have mattered any more.)

[[

I imagine one of the major barriers to this in-RP, if not OOC, was that Tefiren and Wes are both very bad at this whole "trusting people" thing in their own different ways.

(and obligatory do not mind Tefiren he can be a dick. he tried not to be one, bless him, but his patience only lasted so long.)

So, hey, now that we've had everyone roleclaim, how about another roleclaim table? Not even for any particular reason, because I think I've figured everything out anyway; just because I felt like it. I enjoy doing this kind of thing, okay.

Living Players

Name	Role	Night 0	Night 1	Night 2	Night 3
Tefiren (elyvorg)	One-shot bulletproof	Was shot, now vanilla	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nefari (DawningWinds)	Chooses firefighter or rolestopper after 4th innocent death	N/A	N/A	N/A	Chose ???; targeted ???
Wes (HelloYellow17)	Chooses doctor or firefighter, starts N2	N/A	N/A	Chose doctor; healed Arctozolt	Tefiren
Mewtwo (Equitial)	Doctor	Lexx	Tefiren	Arctozolt	Nefari
Braixen (SparklingEspeon)	Doctor	none	none	none	Altair
Altair (Inkedust)	Checker (checks if his target's action succeeded that night)	Lusamine; success	Mewtwo; success	Arctozolt; success	Miyako; failure
Alexander (Namohysip)	Strengthener (ensures his target's action will succeed and not miss)	Lexx	Lexx	Jesse	Wes
Kyros (windskull)	Vengeful (if lynched, can kill one person who voted him)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cold Fusion (Fusion)	Chooses doctor or roleblocker after being targeted twice	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A (has not been targeted at all so far)

Dead players

Name	Role	Night 0	Night 1	Night 2	Night 3
Chappie (AbraPunk) [Innocent]	Bus driver (swaps two people)	Altair and Lusamine	Lexx and Braixen(/Spark)	Mewtwo and Namco	(lynched D3)
Dave (Dragonfree) [Innocent]	Chooses between two unknown roles, gets it on a delay	Chose his role (he did "something" that "couldn't not work")	??? (probably N/A)	???	???; killed
Jesse (unrepentantAuthor) [Innocent]	???	Targeted Dave with something that he knew failed (therefore an info power)	???	???; killed
Arctozolt (IFBench) [Innocent]	Universal Backup Cop	N/A	Inherited Cop from Lexx	???; killed
Lexx (Chibi Pika) [Innocent]	Cop	Dave; innocent	???; killed

]]

 

[windskull]

The sky was beginning to dim. Their time was running short. And Kyros still wasn't certain what the right thing to do was. But he had to make a decision.

And he was so, so tired.

He looked up, looking to the braixen, then the mewtwo, before he turned his gaze back to the braixen.

"...Sorry. I know you only just arrived, but this is the way it has to be, Braixen. I just hope I'm right."

And he hoped that Tefiren was right. That only three remained and that this would all be over soon...

Vote: Braixen (Sparkling Espeon)

 

[elyvorg]

Tefiren looked around the group, peering at each of them one by one (except the white bird; he left that idiot alone), grinning and feeling the excitement beginning to creep back into him as he realised - he was sure again! Just a few hours ago, he'd had no idea about any of them, and it had all felt so - so difficult, so challenging, nothing else! - but now, he'd figured it all out, and it was easy. He knew exactly who was on his side, and who the Mafia were. All of them.

Bouncing on his toes, he almost wanted to begin stalking around the Mafias like he usually did, explaining all the reasons he was definitely right about them, revelling in his victory, but--

that look in the thunder cat's eyes as she'd glared at him, the tone of her voice as she'd asked to be caught

--Nah. He didn't even need to do that. He didn't need to tell them they were Mafia - they already knew, anyway! All he needed to do to win was convince the people on his side. So...

"I've figured it out!" he announced, to everyone. "The Mafia. All of them! I know who they all are."

He saw some of the others giving him looks, not seeming convinced, and he bristled, flaring out his leaves. "I do," he insisted. "Maybe I was wrong last time, but I'm right this time. I am. So listen to me if you want to win this game."

He took an excited breath and began. "The big white bird is the Arsonist, obviously. We'll get rid of them tomorrow, before they can catch anyone else, and good riddance. The purple fox is a Mafia, and we're getting rid of him today. The Mafia won't be able to over-heal anyone in the night without him."

(And good thing, too. Not - not that it would have been a problem for Tefiren, of course. He could figure out a way to escape from anything, even... even people trying to help him too hard. He could.)

"And then the last two Mafia? It's the tall blue one, and that other fox. The one you all trust so much. She's been tricking you all along."

[[

Hello, everyone! Here is my updated and final readlist for this game:

Definitely town
Tefiren
Wes
Mewtwo
Alexander
Altair
Kyros

Definitely arsonist
Namco

Definitely mafia
Braixen
Fusion
Nefari

I'm telling you this now just in case I don't make it into the coming days, because I guess this is going to drag on for three more days before we can actually lynch all these scum and win this, annoyingly, even though I am now completely confident that we can win. Tefiren is very much lamenting the lack of his vigkill power that he had last game to speed things up.

But I'm right about this. I'm really, actually sure of it this time.

And... think about it. We've had so much trouble sniffing out the mafia all this time, been so caught up in suspecting each other for tiny little circumstantial things that could technically have mafia intent but could also be completely genuine and human slip-ups and misunderstandings, while doing very little actually becoming sure of where the real mafiosi are. Everything's just been so frustratingly vague and fuzzy with all the suspects we've been considering. Nothing's ever jumped out and been obvious, except for whem Lusamine blew her cover by sussing me. Why is this?

Because this whole time, aside from Lusamine, the real mafiosi have been the one person who gained everyone's trust right at the beginning to the point that nobody even thought twice about her when considering suspects, and the two people who've only just got here such that we've barely had any time to even see anything to suspect them for. That's why this has been so hard.


So, the case against Braixen is pretty clear at this point, and we're lynching him today already. (At least, we better end up lynching him today, or so help me, our resulting destruction is not on me.)

Apparently it's going to take some more convincing for most of you about Nefari. I'm working on that; I'm planning to look through all of her posts before EoD and find some of the ones that sound towny on the surface but could easily have been said with a mafia agenda, because I can think of a few of those at this point.

But for now, let's go over the second one, Fusion.

The Case Against Fusion

• Out of everyone roleclaiming today, he claimed last. Granted, maybe that's just a timezone or availability thing and I'm not going to side-eye that in and of itself. But what it does mean is that his roleclaim is incidentally the least credible one before even getting into what it is, because, if he's lying, he had the chance to ensure he didn't pick something that someone else had already claimed. Nobody can counterclaim the last roleclaimer of the game.
• There is nothing about his claim itself that makes it inherently unlikely to be faked. Not even the fact that it's one of those multiple-choice delayed-onset roles, because at this point it's clear that several people in this game have that, so he could easily have just made one of his own up after the fact.
• The two roles that he can choose from are also very vanilla, straightforward roles. That doesn't entirely feel right to me, given some of the more complex and obscure roles that this game has had. It feels like Fusion could have just picked the first two useful powers that came into his head.
• Another doctor, really? Potentially four of them in the game if he and Wes both choose that? This could easily be either a slip-up in that he didn't realise how ridiculous it'd look for there to be that many doctors, or it could maybe be a deliberate attempt to take the heat off Braixen, because look, guys, there's just lots of doctors in this game, it's totally fine that Braixen claimed with such suspiciously specific timing. Either way, not a good look for him.
• His condition of having to be targeted twice before he can get his power; I don't buy it. At least Wes and Nefari's conditions will definitely eventually happen at some point in the game. It's delayed, but guaranteed sooner or later. With this one, Fusion could live until the very end of the game and potentially never get his power. The only way for him to guarantee it would be to roleclaim and ask people to target him, but then that just puts him at risk of getting killed. A role like that would be bad design, methinks.

So that's all well and good; his roleclaim is has a decently high chance of being a lie, just by the nature of it. But why would he lie about it being this in particular?

Fusion answered that question for us when the very first thing he did after roleclaiming was ask specifically Alexander to target him, supposedly in order to activate his power. He didn't even ask Altair, the one who could could target him with no consequences, the one whose power is probably the least useful to us and therefore fine to use on this. He asked the person who could ensure other people's actions always succeed, and nobody else. And it was Fusion himself who suggested Alexander do this, not Alexander.

• So basically, what this roleclaim actually amounts to was Fusion going, "Hey guys, I'm the mafia don, I'd love it if Alexander gave me some more strongman kills after I used mine up on Dave last night."

Then, after I suggested Alexander definitely shouldn't strengthen him in case he's lying and actually the don - which, at the time, I was mostly just using as a cautionary hypothetical and not because I strongly believed it to be the truth - Fusion immediately popped in to go, "but I'm not, though?". This felt unnecessary - like, if he were actually innocent and understood my point as the complete hypothetical that it was, he wouldn't have felt the need to say anything. It feels like he did that as a kneejerk defence to the fear of having been figured out.

(Can I just say though, "I'm literally just vibing here" is probably my favourite "I'm not mafia" defence I've ever heard.)


Also, as another point against him unrelated to his roleclaim: He's voting Mewtwo today. He did so extremely quickly at the start of the day without spending any time thinking about it.

• Now Wes, I can kinda understand gunning for this so quickly and so hard, because he essentially has "history" with Mewtwo at this point in the game that might lead him to make some snap judgements and cling to them in the wake of Dave's accusation and death. (Basically, for a while yesterday a lot of us were thinking Wes was definitely the mafia doctor while completely trusting Mewtwo, and I can understand why that'd make Wes frustrated and lead him to feel that Mewtwo might have cultivated that on purpose with sneaky mafia intentions.)
• But Fusion? He has no reason to be so adamant about this. He just... is voting Mewtwo, just because.
• So, when Braixen flips mafia and we all learn for sure that Mewtwo is innocent (because there cannot be two mafia doctors, and because Braixen's post is clearly a desperate flail to get us to still suspect Mewtwo even after Braixen flips mafia and that's exactly why we shouldn't), think about why Fusion would be doing this. Aside from Wes, because I believe he's genuine and just being stubborn and misguided, the only other people who vote Mewtwo today should be the mafia members who are trying to make us lose.

And something else to keep in mind, if Fusion is mafia (which he is):

• Another purpose to his roleclaim could have been to try and make it seem like there's loads of these sorts of multiple-choice delayed-onset roles in the game, and they're all weird and different in their activation-condition (especially because we conveniently never got to fully learn about Dave's and if it mirrored Wes's; another reason they wanted him dead?) and don't necessarily come with Reluctant in the name - and therefore Nefari's totally isn't actually the odd one out compared to Wes's and Dave's and so there's no reason to suspect Nefari because of her role's nature at all.

Just. Just putting that out there.

(Guys, please, please open yourselves up to at least the possibility that Nefari has been hoodwinking you this whole time. Just because her role itself is clearly the truth and she's been posting generally townishly doesn't mean she can't still be one very sneaky mafia. It's possible. However unlikely you might feel it is, I want you to consider it an option. And then I want you to look at my logicpost once Braixen and Fusion have flipped mafia and realise that it's the only option left that fits.)


So, honestly, Fusion's roleclaim? Actually a kinda clever fakeclaim that covers a lot of bases in terms of the things he was trying to achieve with it. But also, because of that, pretty noticeable and easy to figure out that it's really a mafia ploy.]]

Tefiren grinned at the tall blue one. "The fire cat said, when he wanted to get rid of you a few days ago while you were still napping, that he thought you'd be clever and dangerous if you were a Mafia. And maybe he was a little bit right! That wasn't a bad try at tricking us!" He giggled, relishing the fact that this was beginning to be fun again. "But like I said to your friend the purple fox, you can't fool me that easily. I can figure out anyone's tricks. All you're doing is making it obvious to me where you are!"

 

[HelloYellow17]

I'm glad you understand that Braixen and Mewtwo can't both be mafia! That way, hopefully you won't want to lynch Mewtwo any more tomorrow if you see that I'm right about Braixen today.

[[I think we are talking past each other here! I absolutely think that Braixen is mafia. (I still suspect them of possibly being third party but I’m not super set on that theory.) BOTH Braixen and Mewtwo are bad eggs, but Mewtwo is the bigger threat here. It’s highly likely that one of them is NOT the mafia doctor, but I still think they are both mafia in some form.
So, that said, I’m not against lynching Braixen in the long run. But I am SO wary of Mewtwo and I really really really REALLY think he should be done away with FIRST. The more I see people jumping on the Braixen train, the more convinced I am of this, because we are likely outnumbered and everyone voting for Braixen is probably mafia.

Think about it. If you’re mafia, at this stage in the game, you HAVE to sacrifice one of your members to save face and avoid suspicion. It’s HIGHLY possible that Braixen deliberately “slipped up” so that we would focus on them and lynch them, therefore sacrificing themselves—probably because they are the weakest Mafia member? Maybe their ability isn’t all that useful? And if we can lynch them while leaving the strongest Mafia members alone, they will still have the advantage.

Kyros and Alexander voting for Braixen only makes me MORE SURE of this because they are almost definitely mafia! Of course they’re going to hope on that train if this was the plan all along!

But! Even if I'm wrong, I have a backup plan! Because if Braixen flips innocent, we'll get information about the rest of the mafia's make-up!

If Braixen flips innocent, the game is over and we lose. Granted, I don’t think Braixen will flip innocent. But at this point in the game, we NEED to go for the jugular and lynch the bigger threats ASAP, and I’m REALLY set on Mewtwo for this exact reason.

That said, I don’t think lynching Braixen is the worst option. But if they happen to be third party, then we lose anyways. Now, you might want to say “But Namco is third party!” Annnnd I’m inclined to agree, but also, they are being SO painfully obvious—what if they, too, are making a sacrificial play for the mafia? Idk. We’ve decided not to worry about them today and I agree with that. But tomorrow, I’m thinking we need to gun for Mewtwo INSTEAD of Namco—more on that in another post later.

Guys, please, please open yourselves up to at least the possibility that Nefari has been hoodwinking you this whole time. Just because her role itself is clearly the truth and she's been posting generally townishly doesn't mean she can't still be one very sneaky mafia. It's possible. However unlikely you might feel it is, I want you to consider it an option. And then I want you to look at my logicpost once Braixen and Fusion have flipped mafia and realise that it's the only option left that fits.)

The Nefari theory is stretching so far and I really don’t think we need to be spending time on it. It’s down to the wire and we can’t afford to be sussing someone who has an extremely solid alibi. Her alibi is WAY more solid than Alexander or Kyros??

Definitely town
Tefiren
Wes
Mewtwo
Alexander
Altair
Kyros

Definitely arsonist
Namco

Definitely mafia
Braixen
Fusion
Nefari

I’ve said this several times and I’ll say it again, we need to play as if there are four Mafia and Nefari does not fit the bill. I’m gonna be posting my own reads in a bit but seriously. PLEASE drop the Nefari theory. It won’t get us anywhere.

As for Fusion...yeah, he’s pretty sus. BUT. You may not know this since you’re not in Discord, but Fusion is notorious for trying to get Mafia to win regardless of his alignment. So he could easily be innocent or mafia and just making sus moves to throw us for a loop. We don’t know enough about him yet, and I don’t think he’s a huge concern for us just yet.

But yeah, I’m gonna say it one more time, Alexander and Kyros NEED to be watched and you should be at least a little suspicious of them. I have more to say but I gotta regather my thoughts before saying more.]]

 

[elyvorg]

Tefiren stared back at the Human he'd moved away from a while ago as he started spouting more of the same nonsense he'd been saying before.

He huffed in frustration and turned back to the other four who weren't Mafia, gesturing frustratedly over at the Human with his wing. "That Human's making exactly as little sense to all of you as he's making to me, right? You lot better not start agreeing with him and doing what he wants to do and ruining everything when we've already won."

[[Look, Wes, at this point I can't even make the effort to argue with you any more, you are literally not even listening or making any effort to understand like 90% of the things that I'm trying to say to you and it's clearly not worth my time.

Thinking that Mewtwo still needs to be lynched even if Braixen flips mafia is exactly what Braixen's post is trying to make you think. I cannot believe you genuinely think that Braixen would tell us that we should lynch Mewtwo after he's gone if that would actually be bad for the mafia. I swear to god if you actually fall for that and end up somehow ruining the game for us, so help me.

You and Mewtwo are so definitely surviving tonight, because you are currently making yourself into the mafia's biggest asset by scapegoating Mewtwo so determinedly like this. Geez. At least this means we're keeping both our doctors for another couple of nights, I guess.]]