Fall 2020 Mafia - Game Thread

[Tanuki]

For night 2 I claimed to see waffle interact with equita. Waffle verified as much after the fact. Which doesn't prove my innocence either, but does say that I'm either providing truthful information or that waffle and I are in cahoots as mafia

Okay, so I mixed up my theory between Waffle and Espy. Really dumb on my part, sorry.

Equita saw me unsuccessfully complete an action on N0, due to being blocked. Although this doesn't prove innocence, it does prove that I can't be the killing role I think.

That much is true. The killer couldn't be Wind in this scenario. It would likely be Waffle since the main connection between these two is they have almost tautologically proved their own innocence. Waffle is telling the truth because Wind verifies her claims, Wind's claims verified by Waffle.

It's a slight stretch, I'll admit, but we've kept a very narrow focus in this game so far, and that might be just what the mafia wants.

 

[Tanuki]

Their role block claim makes less sense than DW and reeks of a mafia member trying to spin their actions as village-friendly after the fact.

I know I already touched on this, but I can't understand the logic of this. My claim on its own did very little and was pretty explicitly at least an attempt to seem village-friendly. By itself, it only served to essentially leech off Equitia's reliability by investing in it further. It made someone people already didn't suspect less suspicious and brought me up alongside.

The best I can guess is that she means my claim didn't serve as much of a purpose as DW's, which is bafflingly obvious. My claim did way less than DW's, but of course it did. It was a pithy attempt at beefing my credibility with someone else's, while DW's had immense weight. It's a counterclaim. By its nature, it serves as an accusation with evidence. Two people with the same role is suspicious enough, two roleblockers even more so.

She's looking at a firecracker and saying the fuse wasn't bright as the explosion. If she's saying DW's blocks themselves made more sense from a town perspective, I'd probably agree. At least, in hindsight. Night zero block, for example, definitely wasn't the way to go, but this was my first time with this role, and I was honestly just trigger happy. Especially with how much we've townlocked Equitia at this point, me blocking him day one is borderline damning.

But we didn't have that stockpile yet. Equitia might not've been the dirtiest target, but I didn't have any strong scumreads at the time. DW's day one looks pretty solid since it might've stopped that night's murder, but DW didn't know that would happen until we all did. It was a shot in the dark just as much as mine was. Admittedly, probably a more educated shot than mine, but they've got a lot more experience than me.

It's just so flimsy an accusation that I feel like I'm making a better one against myself by debating it. It feels like baiting me into being too defensive so I look even more suspicious, but then why not go with a stronger claim against me? The only purpose I can see is to make herself look better by making me look worse since I'm about the closest player to her in the majority's scumreads.

That's at least a little pessimistic, though. If she is honestly on the town's side, then it could be an attempt to go after a potential mafia member. In the most charitable reading, I guess I can't knock her for it.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

I know I already touched on this, but I can't understand the logic of this. My claim on its own did very little and was pretty explicitly at least an attempt to seem village-friendly. By itself, it only served to essentially leech off Equitia's reliability by investing in it further. It made someone people already didn't suspect less suspicious and brought me up alongside.

DWs night one action is pretty defensible, it’s the action tonight that makes no sense. If she’s town, and therefore knows that you’re Mafia, she should be targeting the obvious scum who can roleblock a healer instead of possible scum who might have a passive ability.

The best I can guess is that she means my claim didn't serve as much of a purpose as DW's, which is bafflingly obvious. My claim did way less than DW's, but of course it did. It was a pithy attempt at beefing my credibility with someone else's, while DW's had immense weight. It's a counterclaim. By its nature, it serves as an accusation with evidence. Two people with the same role is suspicious enough, two roleblockers even more so.

Your claim confirmed you as a roleblocker, at least. It also helped to clear up Equital’s confusion and was substantiated by the claim that he had been roleblocked. DWs claim, is not a counterclaim with evidence because she’s never roleblocked anyone, and actively avoids doing so by repeatedly targeting a passive role.

She's looking at a firecracker and saying the fuse wasn't bright as the explosion. If she's saying DW's blocks themselves made more sense from a town perspective, I'd probably agree. At least, in hindsight. Night zero block, for example, definitely wasn't the way to go, but this was my first time with this role, and I was honestly just trigger happy. Especially with how much we've townlocked Equitia at this point, me blocking him day one is borderline damning.

But we didn't have that stockpile yet. Equitia might not've been the dirtiest target, but I didn't have any strong scumreads at the time. DW's day one looks pretty solid since it might've stopped that night's murder, but DW didn't know that would happen until we all did. It was a shot in the dark just as much as mine was. Admittedly, probably a more educated shot than mine, but they've got a lot more experience than me.

Your plays before tonight we’re unhelpful, I’ll give you that much. On the other hand, I think you’re giving DWs roleblock targeting me more credit than it deserves. The only thing that had happened thus far was my not taking charge on my first ever day of playing mafia, which she later agreed was a mistake when called out by Equital. Compared to someone who was actively being suspected, like Persephone, her choice of targeting me is odd. I suspect that was because DW and Perse are both mafia, and she didn’t want to friendly fire. Targeting someone who doesn’t know how to defend herself makes sense for scum, though.

That's at least a little pessimistic, though. If she is honestly on the town's side, then it could be an attempt to go after a potential mafia member. In the most charitable reading, I guess I can't knock her for it.

If she wanted to roleblock a mafia member last night, she would have targeted you. Whichever of you is innocent should be 100% sure that the other is scum, and should be targeting them. You know this, Tanuki, it’s what you did. You made the reasonable townie play, while DW’s play would have done nothing but sow more confusion as to my role if you hadn’t have prevented it.

You of all people should know DW is scum. What are you trying to, accuse yourself?

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Like, imagine how confused we would’ve been if DWs block had’ve actually gone through.

That’s what she was trying to cause. Given the option to roleblock he who should be obvious scum in her eyes, she actively chose to try to make things worse instead.

 

[windskull]

Okay, so I mixed up my theory between Waffle and Espy. Really dumb on my part, sorry.


That much is true. The killer couldn't be Wind in this scenario. It would likely be Waffle since the main connection between these two is they have almost tautologically proved their own innocence. Waffle is telling the truth because Wind verifies her claims, Wind's claims verified by Waffle.

It's a slight stretch, I'll admit, but we've kept a very narrow focus in this game so far, and that might be just what the mafia wants.

Quick post I got to get back to work. On the chance that Waffle and I were mafia, I think they only way we could have had our kill prevented is if we hit who espy protected. The alternative is that w just didn't send a kill in. We couldn't have hit phant because phants bulletproof hasn't activated yet. And if both you and dw were innocent in this case, that would mean a role blocker couldn't have prevented a kill.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

So, I’ve done all the thinking I really care to on DW, so I’ve been thinking about Persephone’s claim, since she’s the only real other vote I could be convinced to make. I think I have to lower her scum probablility from the 90% I was at last night down to maybe about 70% chance of scum.

I looked up Godfather on the mafia wik, since it’s something that’s never come up before, and... I think Persephone might just mean the Mafia Killer. (“In more traditional games, the Godfather may be the final arbiter in who the Mafia kills that Night, and who is performing the kill. Alternatively, the Godfather may be the only Mafioso who can kill.”) Her ability to reflect kill attempts makes sense if her goal is take out all the killing roles. I would, however, appreciate it if @Persephone would spare us the guesswork and tell us what her role means.

That aside, in the context of this roleclaim, her actions... kinda make sense?

Last night, her job was to take out the Vigilante and the Godfather. (Mafia Killer?)

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Hit post by accident

 

[Shiny Phantump]

As I was saying: Last night, her job was to take out the Vigilante and the Godfather. (Mafia Killer?) She made her highly suspicious claim last night after the votes were more or less solidified. That means she’d probably live the night, but be top candidate for a Vigilante kill, which she would reflect and therefore accomplish half of her mission.

Then our Vigilante offed himself. (I do believe, if nothing else, that Fuse was Vigilante. He responded to being told he’d be vigkilled in the night with a confidant “I know what I’m doing.” That implies he’s Vigilante and isn’t going kill himself. On the other hand... We all know how that confidence turned out for him, so who knows, it may have just been confidence misplaced.)

Our Vigilante’s death would be a huge game changer for her. After all, the only town role she needed to deceive died. At this point, her only goal is to kill the Mafia. At this point, she may as well be a townie. Therefore, it makes sense for her to make an honest roleclaim.

The question is: Were her actions all reasoned out based on her role, or was her roleclaim reasoned out to make sense based on her past actions? The latter is a very likely option, which is why I’m still keeping her as 70% scum.

 

[Persephone]

Godfather means the killing role here. I thought that was common parlance since it had been used in the thread. Yeah, my goal is to eliminate all (initial) killers to protect the fair citizens of Ghostville.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

I guess I should say my plan more concisely:
1) we abstain from voting today.
2) Me and DW block Perse and Phan respectively.
3) If no one dies, we lynch Perse first and block Phan that night.
4) If, again, no one dies, we lynch Phan.
5) If both flip mafia but we haven't won, we deliberate between me and DW, voting one off first, then the next.
6) Uh, win. Yay.

Also, going back to this, there’s a problem here. If we say “If there’s no mafia kill tonight we lynch person” and person is innocent, the Mafia will just choose to not kill that night and laugh as we all lynch each other.

 

[Waffle]

my biggest fear is that nuki and dw are both innocent somehow and the mafia isn't killing so they can just have us vote out 2 innocents

 

[Tanuki]

Also, going back to this, there’s a problem here. If we say “If there’s no mafia kill tonight we lynch person” and person is innocent, the Mafia will just choose to not kill that night and laugh as we all lynch each other.

That’s why we change plans the moment Perse or you flip Town.

 

[Tanuki]

We simply don’t have the numbers to mislynch today. The mafia would instantly win. We have to either be entirely certain someone isn’t town, or we hand the game to the mafia. Also, if you or Perse are innocent, our pool of scum is very small.

 

[DawningWinds]

Whichever of you is innocent should be 100% sure that the other is scum, and should be targeting them.

The point is, nobody's alignment is EVER 100% confirmed unless the host says they are

I've seen two legit town Millers in one game, I've seen town Godfathers (Bulba meaning not TR meaning), I've read a game with three town cops, as nonsensical as it is, not even being counterclaims should mean 100% certainty on another player's alignment. 80%, 90% even, sure, but unless you're masons or scum partners (and in Bastard games not even then) or the player has flipped (though here ITPs seem most likely to be flipping as Innocent Town People based on the chat), you should never be 100% certain of someone else's alignment.

Godfather means the killing role here. I thought that was common parlance since it had been used in the thread. Yeah, my goal is to eliminate all (initial) killers to protect the fair citizens of Ghostville.

I've never seen this meaning for Godfather before. :/

 

[DawningWinds]

Also unless Equitia is lying, Tanuki is definitely a roleblocker regardless of scum/town, so targeting him had no chance of stopping the kill.

 

[Tanuki]

my biggest fear is that nuki and dw are both innocent somehow and the mafia isn't killing so they can just have us vote out 2 innocents

I’ve expressed this concern before as well, and I don’t think we’re giving it enough thought. We’re fine with a lot of repeat kills, but not roleblocker since it’s usually mafia. We should look for more evidence if we wanna convict me or DW.

 

[DawningWinds]

Also unless Equitia is lying, Tanuki is definitely a roleblocker regardless of scum/town, so targeting him had no chance of stopping the kill.

While with targeting Phan I had a person who maybe carried out the kill based on N1 and repeating that was the best way to attempt to confirm it. Unless Tanuki and Equitia are both lying, though, we know Phan is not the killer.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Also unless Equitia is lying, Tanuki is definitely a roleblocker regardless of scum/town, so targeting him had no chance of stopping the kill.

He could’ve roleblocked a healer. Doing that to Espy would’ve caused a kill today.

 

[Starlight Aurate]

A reminder that roughly 24 hours are left in Day 3. Current vote:

1 skip: Tanuki
1 Persephone: Equitia
1 DawningWinds: Shiny Phantump
1 Tanuki: Persephone
Not voting: SparklingEspeon, Waffle, windskull, DawningWinds

 

[windskull]

I really should vote huh?
Uh for now I'm going to vote on DawningWinds but I'll reevaluate later morning after I've looked over the thread more.

One thing to keep in mind. To an extent, Tanuki has a point. If we mislynch today and the mafia has 3 members, then them succeeding in a kill tonight will leave us at parity. I can't remember if this game ends at parity or at mafia majority. HOWEVER we have no clue if there are 2 or 3 mafia. The only claim we had that there was three was from Persephone, and she's since said that her oracle claim was fake. If there's only 2 mafia, then we would be perfectly ok with a mislynch.