Right now, I see one possibility that is
by far the most likely is that Espy saved someone. We know Espy targeted someone, but not who it was. If the mafia killer targeted her target, no night kill.
If Espy did save someone, I think DWs is scum. Nobody can confirm her townie roleblocker claim, because she chose to target a passive role twice instead of, y’know,
the person who she should think is 100% beyond any reasonable doubt scum, who is also confirmed to be an active role.
So... why? It makes sense if DW is killer. She woke up and saw a failed kill. Claiming to have roleblocked me again is a very safe bet. It throws lots of suspicion onto me as Mafia Killer, and is extremely difficult to disprove. In fact the only way it could possibly be proven to
not be what prevented the nightkill is if Tanuki roleblocked her
and Equital targeted me or her with his scan... Which is
exactly what happened.
Despite being a relatively safe play for the Mafia, it blew up on her. I was successfully confirmed innocent. (Honestly, iirc nobody can confirm her as any form roleblocker, so she could possibly be the killer herself, with Tanuki’s roleblock being the cause of the failed kill.)
Now, I don’t want to
just look at reasons DWs is scum. After all, roleblocking me as a townie has one possible upside: it could’ve prevented the nightkill. Now, that’s nothing to scoff at, but it’s also not a compelling reason because of one significant downside: By preventing my being confirmed as anything, it muddies the waters in a way only beneficial to the mafia. Even if DW knew, beyond any possible doubt, that I was Mafia, all roleblocking me would do is stop me from digging my own grave and setting y’all up for the easiest scum lynching in mafia history. Debatably worth it as it stands, but since she can’t possibly think I’m 100% scum, townie DW would have to consider another possibility:
Blocking me if I am innocent is obviously a huge waste of everyone’s time, and worse, also has a significant chance of causing a
third innocent lynch. Why not block who she would see as the obvious scum in Tanuki instead?
Ultimately, I can’t imagine why townie DW would
possibly take the actions she claims to have taken tonight.
—
However, even if we all agree that DWs is totally scum, there’s also one other matter at hand: Her or Persephone? Both have scummy vibes. While Persephone’s new roleclaim, which means she wanted to be targeted by the Vig, does explain the borderline suicidal roleclaim. Fuse being Vig also explains why he completely dismissed the possibility of getting vigkilled last night. However, let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Persephone is 100% definitely scum with no reasonable doubts, I think we still kill DW tonight.
If we mislynch today, we very well may be cooked if the Mafia doesn’t mess up
really badly. They almost certainly know who Espy targeted by virtue of that fact that it’s who they failed to kill. (Only exception is if DW is Mafia Killer.) If we don’t lynch scum every day, chances that we don’t wake up in the morning are
high. The inforoles can’t stop them from targeting Waffle if they win before the inforoles get to wake up and out them. -2 town ties us, and lynching 1 scum and losing 1 townie in the night doesn’t regain any ground.
If Persephone flips Mafia, we learn... absolutely nothing. (With the exception of the fact that her roleclaim stunk.) Tomorrow, we will still be faced with the Tanuki vs DW dilemma. Unless we prevented a kill, this is a second chance to fuck up and all die.
If we kill DW, we not only get a very likely scum death, we also get information. With the largest point of confusion in the game thus far resolved, it should be
relatively smooth sailing to finish up. Still not easy, but much less perilous.
This is why I am going to
Vote: DawningWinds today, with plans to vote Persephone tomorrow if nothing happens to change my plan during the night.