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[MAFIA WIN] Second Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

Namohysip

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[[Was reading back over the messages analyzing the Mafia!Nefari theory aaaand—I done goofed. I was informed of my roles on N0, but did not need to choose which one until N2. I think I misunderstood what you were asking originally—my bad!]]


[[

N2, specifically? Nothing about four innocents dying and so on? Fuse says that his triggered upon being targeted twice. I can't remember off the top of my head the trigger points for other Reluctant / delayed roles, but it looks like they might all be different triggers...?

Yeah, something is weird here unless we're looking too deeply into these delayed triggers. It's all homebrew, I think, so who knows if there's a pattern.

I'll look over that beeg post in a bit when I have a free moment.

]]
 

HelloYellow17

Artsy Whimsical Nerd
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[[

N2, specifically? Nothing about four innocents dying and so on? Fuse says that his triggered upon being targeted twice. I can't remember off the top of my head the trigger points for other Reluctant / delayed roles, but it looks like they might all be different triggers...?

Yeah, something is weird here unless we're looking too deeply into these delayed triggers. It's all homebrew, I think, so who knows if there's a pattern.

I'll look over that beeg post in a bit when I have a free moment.

]]
[[Yep, just N2, nothing said about the number of deaths. So honestly, it just seems like these triggers were tossed in for some variety and possible confusion and not much more. I think we’re reading too much into these details, tbh.]]
 

HelloYellow17

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[[Negrek be like: “Let’s make half the players healers and then sit back and watch everyone scream. >:)” ]]
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
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she/her
[[I am beginning to understand why, when I claimed bulletproof and explained that I had no more protection, some people had been assuming I must have had some kind of fancy secondary power to go with it. Hmph. Tefiren would have vastly preferred that, thank you very much stupid world that's robbed him of all his tricks. (except escaping, he can definitely still do that, he is fine)]]
 

Namohysip

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[[in response to beeg Elvy post]]

Alexander listened to the Guardian Spirit above Tefiren very carefully. Any time he was mentioned as being Mafia, his eye twitched in offense and he scowled, making sure that his opinion on such possibilities was known. But by the time this was finished, he hummed and flicked his tail. "I'd already cast my vote for Braixen, and I am glad that following that feeling was a good one. Yes, it's nebulous. Yes, it's uncertain. But due to the way all of the cards are falling, I am very confident that it is also our best bet, accounting for all possibilities.

"And, of course, because I personally know I am innocent, that makes my process-of-elimination decision making much easier. During the night, I can prove my innocence with possibly the one person who could directly verify that I am able to do what I said I did--that is, target a player. All of my other indicators are... indirect. This is finally something that I can provide more reliable information over." He smirked, but there seemed to be some relief in it this time. Not that he'd admit it.
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
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she/her
"And, of course, because I personally know I am innocent, that makes my process-of-elimination decision making much easier. During the night, I can prove my innocence with possibly the one person who could directly verify that I am able to do what I said I did--that is, target a player. All of my other indicators are... indirect. This is finally something that I can provide more reliable information over." He smirked, but there seemed to be some relief in it this time. Not that he'd admit it.
[[I... don't know if you could actually verify anything with Altair that way? All he can tell you is that your action succeeded, not who you targeted, or even that you targeted anyone at all. I spent most of page 38 of the thread interrogating him on the details of his role and determined that even if he'd checked me, who has no night action, he'd still get a "Success" reading, providing nobody roleblocked me and prevented me from doing nothing my way.


Now, some extra thoughts about the things Alexander's strengthening may have done, if he's innocent and telling us the truth.

He strenghthened Wes last night. Which is giving me this terrifying paranoia that what if actually Wes is somehow the mafia don, and that's why Dave died like that, and it was intended to be a regular mafia kill otherwise? But I still really doubt Wes is mafia! His roleclaim was so genuine and fumbling and has so many details in it (Reluctant! Like Dave!) that I completely believe that has to be his role, and if that's his role in the mafia, surely the one with a power that only appears after a delay like that would be the last one to inherit the don power?

And also, if Wes is mafia, then according to my logicpost, Alexander basically has to be mafia with him, and so why would he risk incriminating his partner by saying he strengthened him, on the night of an obvious strongman kill?

aaaaaaa, end conclusion, stop being paranoid, me, Wes is almost definitely still innocent. I am going to kick myself so hard if it turns out I was wrong to believe in him in the end here but right to suspect him earlier on in the game. negrek why are you doing this to us


Other thought: Alexander strengthened Lexx on night 0. Lexx had no idea of this. He vouched that Dave wasn't rolestopped - obviously because his inspection on Dave went through - and therefore guessed Jesse must have just been blocked. But given the then-unknown strengthening on Lexx, it's possible Dave was in fact rolestopped after all, rather than Jesse having been roleblocked. I... do not know if this fact actually matters to anything (it's not like it could have been Nefari doing the rolestopping that early), but I just wanted to throw that out there.


Oh, also, I meant to reply to a thing Altair said about his role yesterday but never got around to it. Not that I know whether this actually means anything significant either.
[[Okay, one more question (I think), and then I'll stop spamming the thread with so many short posts: Why did you check Miyako last night? Lusamine was probably random on N0, Mewtwo makes sense after Day 1, Arctozolt is obvious, but why her? She hadn't claimed anything.]]
[[Lusamine's death flavour (bright light, scorch mark). It correlates to Miyako's character, who had a Persona that specialised in Fire/Light/Holy magic (as well as her being present within the flavour), it gave the impression that she might've been the Vig and I wanted to see if the Mafia caught onto it. Obviously, they did as she was blocked N3.]]
See, the thing is... I extremely doubt that Miyako was the vig. There is significant evidence that she wasn't.

Not from the flavour - maybe that could have been her Persona, sure - but from everything she said that day, about the flavour. She seemed to genuinely believe the scorch mark must have meant arsonist flavour, arguing for it in a way that... honestly didn't entirely logically hold up, because Negrek would not have changed the flavour from ripples to scorch mark just because nobody picked up on it the day before (and also two arsonist kills that quickly weren't mechanically possible). If she knew it was actually her own vig flavour, she wouldn't have tried to argue that.

Maybe she did that to try and deliberately throw of the scent of her being the vig, but there'd be no need for that. Everyone was already pretty sure it was a vig and had no idea who (and I'd thrown out that maybe it was Jesse. I still think it was Jesse. Scorch mark!). And I feel Miyako's posting style was too straightforward and earnest for her to have even thought of that sort of galaxy-brain deception tactic, pretending to be wrong in such a genuinely fumbling way to hide information as town. (Also I feel like she's inexperienced enough that she may have just come straight out and claimed when Alexander rather hastily asked the vig to do so at the start of the day.)

Plus, she mentioned offhandedly on Day 2 that her night action that night - implying she'd used one - had had no relevance to the Lexx and Rascal's deaths, so she felt no need to bring it up. If she was a vig, that doesn't fit, because either she did nothing that night, or one of those kills was actually her (but clearly not, because no scorch mark).

So, I find it a liiiittle bit strange that both Altair and the mafia apparently separately had this obviously-incorrect-to-me vig-Miyako idea, to have blocked her/checked if she was blocked? But then again, apparently I'm the only person who ever gave a damn and paid any real attention to Miyako's actual posts and her way of thinking, so maybe it's not so unreasonable that multiple other people would only look at the flavour and jump to conclusions from that. I dunno.

(Now I'm getting paranoid that maybe Altair could be mafia!Checker and Alexander be town!Strengthener and my whole assumption about how they must both be on the same side could be wrong, aaaaaaaaaaaaa, stop second guessing things, me)]]
 

Namohysip

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I... don't know if you could actually verify anything with Altair that way?

[[ Ah, Alexander was referring to Strengthening Fusion tonight, and he would get an indicator that someone targeted him tonight per his power description (if I read it correctly) assuming he's telling the truth. Nothing to do with Altair... but now that I think about it, Altair would be able to check on me to possibly verify? If Altair, too, is telling the truth. We have a lot of uncertainties with this plan and I don't like it, but I also don't have any better ideas...]]

But given the then-unknown strengthening on Lexx, it's possible Dave was in fact rolestopped after all, rather than Jesse having been roleblocked.

Alexander raised one of his smaller heads in protest, but then stopped and brought it to his chin instead. "...Mrm. I hadn't considered this. I do not know how that specific scenario would interact. If I successfully aided Lexx, then yes, I do not believe a Rolestop would prevent it... if I am reading the planes correctly. Therefore it is possible... But what are the odds of that?" He paused, then scoffed. "It feels as though we have harmed ourselves in the past with 'what are the odds?' questions, though. Perhaps we should consider this possibility. But you are right... I do not know how this interacts with our current situation one way or the other. We already know that Dave is Innocent. Somehow, Lexx went through."
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
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[[ Ah, Alexander was referring to Strengthening Fusion tonight, and he would get an indicator that someone targeted him tonight per his power description (if I read it correctly) assuming he's telling the truth. Nothing to do with Altair... but now that I think about it, Altair would be able to check on me to possibly verify? If Altair, too, is telling the truth. We have a lot of uncertainties with this plan and I don't like it, but I also don't have any better ideas...]]
[[Oh, right, yeah, I forgot you were discussing that with Fusion recently. However, I'm not sure you should do that, regardless of verifying your role, because...

what if Fusion's lying, and he's actually the mafia don, and you give him a free strongman kill?

I don't think it's worth the risk. Our doctors are the best defence we have right now, and we can be pretty certain, even if one of them might be mafia (though hopefully that fear can be resolved tonight if we're right about Braixen) that their power is still just healing, so nothing bad should come if you strengthen one of them. At worst, nothing happens; at best, you let them overcome being roleblocked or rolestopped (I wonder, might the mafia have a special kind of rolestop that stops everything except kills? too broken?) and potentially help them save a life.]]
 

Fusion

Da ba dee, da ba di
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[[As flattered as I am about you thinking that I'm lying and the Mafia Don, which I don't think I know what that is, I'm kinda just not. Not that the Mafia wouldn't lie about having a role like mines, but I know I'm not lying at least.

Regardless, it's fine. If I get targeted twice, I just get to be another healer or a blocker. If not, the Mafia has next to no reason to wanna pick me off since I'm just Vanilla Town. Either way I'm kinda just vibin' here.]]
 

Inkedust

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So, I find it a liiiittle bit strange that both Altair and the mafia apparently separately had this obviously-incorrect-to-me vig-Miyako idea, to have blocked her/checked if she was blocked? But then again, apparently I'm the only person who ever gave a damn and paid any real attention to Miyako's actual posts and her way of thinking, so maybe it's not so unreasonable that multiple other people would only look at the flavour and jump to conclusions from that. I dunno.

[[I don't find it that big of a stretch as sometimes, flavour is all you have to go on. Yes, Miyako did state that she used an action N1 and theorised the scorch-marks being from the Arsonist but it is something that can be taken as a diversion tactic. A Vigilante is a huge target for the Mafia, so it can be reasonably assumed that they'll target the top candidates, especially if the flavour is the only real lead. Maybe I just got lucky and the Mafia targeted her for different reasons, but Miyako was my top choice of target last night due to lack of information regarding any other role (aside from who the Doctors are but I assume the Mafia doesn't want to block them because of overdose).]]
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
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[[Oh, right, yeah, I forgot you were discussing that with Fusion recently. However, I'm not sure you should do that, regardless of verifying your role, because...

what if Fusion's lying, and he's actually the mafia don, and you give him a free strongman kill?
[[On the other hand, because strongman kills apparently have such big obvious death flavour (at least I am still assuming that is what happened to Dave, what else could that be), maybe if you did that, we could use that to effectively confirm Fusion as mafia? Assuming he's specifically the don, but. (Honestly, if he's mafia, I think he probably is the don, because we have all these other more-certain roleclaims like doctor and firefighter/rolestopper that'd also make sense as mafia roles and therefore wouldn't have the killing power.) We'd lose an innocent for sure, but it could be considered worth it, to confirm a mafia? Is it worth that? But we still need to lynch Namco tomorrow aaaaaaaaa.

...Maybe it's a strategy to keep in your back pocket for if both you (Alexander) and Fusion are still alive later and you need to find a way to confirm whether it's him or Kyros, I dunno. Strategising hard.]]
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
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Fusion caught the recording and listened, then remembering that he already knew Alex's power. "Oh, right... Hm..."

"For a moment, I thought that maybe you using your ability on me would allow me to bypass prerequisite... and frankly I still kind of do," Fusion hummed. Behind his mask was an almost excited grin. "Under normal circumstances, I'd be happy to experiment this... but this might not even work in the first place, and the last thing we need is a wasted role..."

The frost demon sighed, then shrugged. "Feel free to try it on me if you feel no one else is in need of your power, but don't make me sway how you use it."
[[Yeah, I am extremely side-eyeing the "oh hey guys I have one of those pick-a-power-after-some-arbitrary-condition-is-met roles too, and my condition is, uhhhh, being targeted in the night! So hey, you over there, you with the power to make actions always succeed no matter what, you should totally target me! This can only be a good thing for town!"

I had to read over that Alexander-Fusion exchange again to remind myself whose idea is was to have Alexander target Fusion, but since it was Fusion's idea, yeeeaaaaah that's suspicious as all hell.]]
 

Namohysip

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"...Yet more good points," Alexander said with a hint of fatigue. "This is true. Very well. I will not reveal who, but I shall attempt to Strengthen one of the doctors I feel is more trustworthy by the end of the day. That way, should there be any attempts at blocking somehow, they won't know who to disrupt and who won't be strengthened. They may even default to blocking me, thus giving free reign to all other doctors." He smirked. "That seems like a fine enough plan. I think, to prevent an overdose risk... we should consider how the doctors should arrange their heals without clearly telegraphing it to the Mafia."
 

HelloYellow17

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[[ @elyvorg sorry I’m tagging you directly because I can’t find the part of your message that I want to quote annnd I don’t want to dig for it LOL.

Anyway! You mentioned that you’re certain there is three or four mafia left—but honestly, there COULD be five or six. (Don’t think there’s more than six because I have four on my list of hard Town.) I strongly suggest we play as if we are in the minority here. I’ll leave some notes before EoD, but basically anyone who is not you, me, Nefari, and Altair should be regarded as Mafia until more solid evidence is shown.

That said, I think lynching Mewtwo OR Braixen is probably a safe bet and it’s likely that both of them are Mafia, IMO—but I’m MUCH more certain of Mewtwo than I am if Braixen, largely because we don’t have much evidence against Braixen except for an untimely and unfortunate role claim, all of which could just be circumstantial and bad luck if he is innocent.

Mewtwo, on the other hand, had some inconsistencies pointed out in his play, and I didn’t find his defense super convincing. And immediately after pointing this out, Dave was killed. Sure, it could be Mafia trying to get us to lunch Mewtwo anyway, but more likely I think it’s because he was an experienced player and was starting to reveal their cover, so they did away with him before he could do more damage. Idk, I don’t want to force anybody to make a vote they don’t want to, but I think there’s a lot more reason to suspect Mewtwo over Braixen right now. And even if both of them are Mafia, I personally think Mewtwo is the bigger threat. He’s been around longer, is more experienced, has managed to keep a much lower profile than Braixen, etc.

I’m also gonna point out that Alexander trying to push for Braixen does raise some red flags for me and I’m officially suspicious of him. I could be jumping the gun here, idk. But at the tail end of D3, it became painfully obvious that we should have lynched Mewtwo instead, and so I find it weird that suddenly they are pushing for Braixen over Mewtwo.

TLDR: I really very very strongly feel we need to lynch mewtwo and we can deal with Braixen later. ]]
 

HelloYellow17

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I think, to prevent an overdose risk... we should consider how the doctors should arrange their heals without clearly telegraphing it to the Mafia."
“And how do you propose we do that?” Wes asked dryly. “We can’t exactly advertise who we plan to heal, or else the Mafia doctor can simply plan for a healer clash. Although...” he paused and glanced at the sky in thought. “We could always throw out a few potential targets to heal and see what happens. It’s risky, but we don’t have much time left anyways, so it could be worth it.”
 

HelloYellow17

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[[Also I should add that if I die this next night...I’m gonna assume that means I’m right about my theories. 😂]]
 

Namohysip

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[[ It is impossible for there to be six Mafia right now. Unless the core rule of Mafia has changed in this game, Mafia wins if they are a majority. With only ten players, the absolute max number of Mafia members is 5 right now, and that would be an exact tie with Town+3rd party. ]]

“And how do you propose we do that?” Wes asked dryly. “We can’t exactly advertise who we plan to heal, or else the Mafia doctor can simply plan for a healer clash. Although...” he paused and glanced at the sky in thought. “We could always throw out a few potential targets to heal and see what happens. It’s risky, but we don’t have much time left anyways, so it could be worth it.”

"I didn't suggest an idea because I didn't have any," Alexander growled back. "I don't want to repeat myself more than I need to, but it is plain to me that a system that is both secure and transparent would be needed to minimize the likelihood of Mafia outnumbering us. Rgh, and speaking of repeating myself... Yes. It was very clear to me that after what happened at the end of yesterday, Mewtwo seemed suspicious. But as you can see with this little game, things can change very rapidly as new information comes to light, and new behaviors come to light.

"That strange behavior was Braixen's ill-timed and frankly strange decision to call Doctor as if to replace Mewtwo as a potentially faux-benevolent healer. That suggests that not only are the Mafia not at a tie right now, but they could be setting up for a subtle setup of getting the least suspicious individuals of their team to last to the end.

"I know how these games go. I have seen all of the recordings. Mafia do not take this long to be found, and this is a particularly large game compared to previous ones. Between being plainly unable to find any of them through voting--until now, perhaps--followed by so many of us falling so rapidly, I have a guess on this game's... meta. We are dealing with a high-lethality environment with a small, nimble Mafia squadron.

"That explains a lot of what has been happening, and also the lack of kills on the first night. If the Mafia is small, then perhaps by some coincidence they were unable to land a kill, and with all the late-awakening powers, perhaps the Arsonist, Serial Killer, or whatever other killing third-party role did not kick in until the following nights. Arsonist inherently cannot kill on Night 0 due to how their power works.

"Tefiren had outlined a lot of reasoning that only reinforced my thought process. Had I not been busy meditating"--screaming a the sky [[while I was at work]]--"I might have cast my vote toward Mewtwo myself with a brief explanation based on the previous day's events... but one of the first statements here was by a rogue Zoroark-Braixen claiming yet another healing role as it became most convenient. Regardless of that, I would have certainly redirected to Braixen anyway.

"It had me... thinking. And while yes, very little was said by this individual before, what has been said--ahem, not to mention the literal slip-up that had been uttered--has done nothing but raise my suspicions. I am unconvinced that Mewtwo is a more secure vote today."
 
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