ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
Yeah, it's probably the RP flavor influencing me. It's hard for me to read things that are mostly RP.
[COMPLETE] THE MADEMOISELLE'S BANQUET (December Mafia)—GAME THREAD
- Thread starter Inkedust
- Start date
Yeah, it's probably the RP flavor influencing me. It's hard for me to read things that are mostly RP.
unrepentantAuthor
A cat that writes stories.
[[Wait hang on. If we have a town deflector who targeted Tetra, (and there's no scum deflector, and tetra is innocent), knowing who they deflected to gives us a scum ping. 👀 ]]
ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
We have three possibilities if there is or isn't a deflector.
One, this is the possibility where there isn't a deflector and Tetra is Mafia or TP. We get a scum or TP detection from this.
Two, the possibility where there is a town deflector and Tetra is innocent. If we could get their input on who they deflected then yeah we got a scum read.
Three, the possibility where there is a scum deflector and Tetra is innocent, then we have a certainty of scum as deflector. (Can a TP be a deflector?)
Panoramic_Vacuum
Hoenn around
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[[Do deflectors have the ability to choose who they deflect to? Or do they automatically deflect to not- Town?
The second thought to this is: why would a town deflector choose tetra as their target for last night? From everything I gathered she was suspect #1 going into the night.
My chief concern right now is we have no guesses about any scum powers. For a power that could be used to misdirect town investigation rules, would it really be a town power?
There's at least two scum out there. From what we know of town's powers right now, it feels pretty weighted in the good guys' favor... Happy to hear thoughts on this.]]
Panoramic_Vacuum
Hoenn around
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[[also, frankly, a bit surprised at the lack of skepticism from the room, specifically the people who weren't present at the time of this all going down. No one is uncertain about this? In any way shape or form? I find that hard to believe.]]
ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
Are we even sure if there is a deflector and Tetra wasn't just lying to save her skin? (I mean I haven't exactly read her story so it's not like I really know if she's telling the truth or not)
Panoramic_Vacuum
Hoenn around
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[[Quoting myself here but I wanted to clarify this is not me saying anyone is lying or guilty, but that we should remember this is a role madness game and there are more unconfirmed powers than confirmed at this moment. Is there anything else we could be considering that might be at play?]]
Panoramic_Vacuum
Hoenn around
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[[Not to be rude, but I'd suggest you try to get up to speed about what's going on. Especially because right now the only vote for the day is on you.]]
ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
I've already made a post about that.
But after a few hours and trying to look into any angle with the most paranoia I could muster up, I've created an absolutely insane list that honestly, I think I may have gone a bit overboard and over-analyzed a couple of things.
I'll probably post it a few minutes later 'cause I'm not sure if I'll have any time for EoD.
Panoramic_Vacuum
Hoenn around
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[[Ah I must have missed that. Can you link me to your post? I'm simply responding to your comment about how you "didn't read Tetra's story", which is separate from a vote being cast upon you]]
ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
Post in thread '[Day 2] THE MADEMOISELLE'S BANQUET (December Mafia)—GAME THREAD' https://forums.thousandroads.net/in...et-december-mafia-—game-thread.918/post-50049
Panoramic_Vacuum
Hoenn around
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[[Thank you! I took a quick look over it again and while it's good info on your thoughts from the day's play, I think what is missing is defense of yourself. Yellow cast a vote for you earlier today. Is there anything you'd like to say to convince us that vote isn't warranted?]]
ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
Well, considering they were only poking me to get a response, I'm more inclined to say no. (as in not really needing to defend myself from a nudge vote)
Anyway, in my defense, I'm a really terrible person reader, so while everyone feels pretty town-ish to me, I know that's well, obviously not true.
Onto my own defense for myself, having most of the fight happening while I was at school, I was pretty late to the party as most of it had already dwindle down. I don't really know how to defend myself other than maybe saying that just because I'm quiet doesn't mean I'm active.
The post I'd made felt pretty solid on the reads during that time although I'll be posting a bigger one detailing my more paranoid reads.
ShiniGojira
Multiversal Extraordinaire
Okay, here's my take, and keep in mind. All of these are based on extremely paranoid ideas, hypothetical instances, long stretches and low probabilities (basically I'mma go full conspiracy theorist mode on) but hey, low possibilities don't mean impossible, right?
(I don't necessarily think any of this is true as some of them could only be pulled off by an emotionless strategist hell bent on winning. This is just an observation made by a paranoid person who knows nothing about the other players.)
That's about it, give me your further thoughts on this. I probably missed a few things as I'm typing this at night and nearing my bed time.
(I don't necessarily think any of this is true as some of them could only be pulled off by an emotionless strategist hell bent on winning. This is just an observation made by a paranoid person who knows nothing about the other players.)
*Cough*
Player list:
First, we have Jackie. She was the first to hone down Tetra (I'm not counting Wind's nudge) with Dragonfree. We learn that she may have checked Free on N0 and got a guilty lead on Tetra. She claims to be a Cop and the proof she has is Free being an innocent and dead. She could've crafted an insanely big-brained plan that counted on Tetra being stressed and tired, Free's insistence on Tetra being Mafia or TP, and as a Mafia, she'd known that Free would be safe and thus can 'claim' to be a cop. Is this an insane idea? Yes. The chances of this happening? Probably pretty low.
Next, we have Mrs. Motivator herself. Being the first to be called out, contradict herself and general vagueness, and the first to suggest a TP, those in itself could be sus even with all those excuses(ie busyness and irl stuff). The scurrying and screaming with Jackie could easily be faked as there had been a 48-hour period of rest and planning. How likely is this? Pretty low but not off the table.
Then, we have Pano with Snot Bird. The main poker and theory-crafter, could be read as a townsplay or a low-key, safer Mafia play. Information is key to this person, and information helps both Mafia and Town. They don't provide much info themselves but do give out ideas and suggestions and that could be a subtle play of manipulation especially since they know most of the players around. Chances of being the mastermind that crafted this ploy? Low but is reaching the forty-percent marker for me.
Forthly, we have Sind. A very-detailed and methodical player, taking notes and paying attention to a lot of details. The information they give is helpful to plenty of people, though obviously it's more beneficial for town. Through this, there can be a chance that with their methodical approach in the game, they could easily provide information that's relevant to the current information known, and can say things that are carefully crafted due to their mechanical analysis. How likely do I think they're Mafia? Low to probably no chance. Chances of them being able to orchestra this? Pretty high if I have to be honest.
Minty, a new but pretty good player based on what I've seen. Taking notes and paying attention to details much like Sind, but they could use their newbieness to stay out of the spotlight and provide their insights on recent and old information. (ie: like using their new player status as an excuse) Their insights are pretty similar to Sind, which granted is a smart choice as Sind provided a butt load of things. They could've been buddies with Sind and take notes with one another, that and Minty had admitted to being one to benefit from the chaos. Chances of them being masterminds? None. Being partners with another like-minded individual? A high probability.
Another one, Wind, hard to read due to their low amount of responses. But from what I gathered, they have posted things that seem credible but could they possibly be? What if they were only saying it because they 'know' how to redirect suspicion off of them as well as them knowing how to gauge a person's response, and reply back with a well-crafted post. Chances of being the one behind the slaughter mess? Pretty low.
Later, we have Seren the gremlin poster. Their posts have mostly been about an apology to Tetra, another suggestion about something and denial of a TP. While yes, we don't have any evidence of a TP, that doesn't really rule out the possibility of one. Not much to go off due to the lack of posting. Chances of being the mastermind behind this operation? A smidge due to their lack of posting and information, could change depending on future posts. (This was written before Seren's recent post.)
Finally, we have me the Gummy Goomy. Not much else to go off, even their posts were not very detailed, a high suspect in some people's list due to their quietness. Timezone is different from the rest, and inactive while most are awake and active. A beginner but not as good as Minty though quickly learning as the game goes on (There are so many roles in Mafia, oh God why). Is the one who created this insanely large and irrational sounding list due to their lack of experience in both the game and the knowledge of the players' behaviors. Chances of being way too paranoid? High as hell. Wasted a lot of time typing this? A probability
Plays that could've be orchestrated by [*Insert name*] and others:
First fight between Free, Jackie and Tetra.
Free dies so it's obvious she's not Mafia though that doesn't rule out her potentially being a TP. Anyway, Jackie and Tetra, both had things to do and were stressed out by irl stuff. But N0 had 48 hours of planning and waiting, the fight could be staged and while Tetra later on D2 and D1 explains the irl stuff which could be true but could also be used as an excuse.
Free died and Jackie on D2 claimed to be a cop, and got a guilty read on Tetra, proceeds to argue again. Then Tetra suggests a Bus Driver which immediately catches everyone's attention and 'stops' Jackie from zoning onto her, essentially removing sus on both of them for a lot of people.
This fight could be easily one of the smartest plays in this game as it not only removes suspicions on them but also allows them to 'claim' useful roles, especially with how few people have raised suspicions about the timing of their claims.
The chances of them both being Mafia is rather high if you look at things like this, but at the same time they could also be genuine(who knows). Then, combined with everyone's reactions and the utter chaos that had dissolved, had solidify their cases as cleared.
Pano, like I had said earlier could be a TP or Mafia playing very safe, poking and prodding others into speaking while acting town-ish with their actions. Imagine a scenario where Pano is a TP, it'd make sense with the poking having dissolved into decent info and the small suggestions like the idea of a Silencer or mass-claiming. They were a bit quick to jump on the whole Tetra and Jackie claiming despite earlier saying that 'no one else' should claim anymore. Of course, this could be genuine town play but could also be a TP play or a three-scum play, with Pano being either the third scum with Tetra and Jackie, or a TP cashing in on the free info.
Yellow provided commentary on the fight, only interjecting with a few jibes and questions when Tetra suggested a TP involved. Seems pretty genuine though the pokes at Pano can be viewed as a play in trying to know what role Pano has, trying to get info on a potential threat maybe?
Sind providing useful info about the fight and things that'd happened, though could just be trying to win town, the large amount of detailed information does suggest townsplay but shouldn't be disregarded as a non-Mafia play seeing as earning the trust of others with info is a pretty easy thing to do, especially if you analyze things way too much.
Wind, providing some reads though most of them could just easily be nods to existing leads, possibly trying to get into townie's favour with going for what everyone's thinking.
Seren, I feel like is a bit biased towards their read on Tetra but then again, it could also be a play in trying to get into everyone's favour and Tetra's, or it could be trying to convince everyone on Tetra's innocence.
Minty, could be a bit sus depending on how you look at things, the attention to details, the presentation of information feels like they could be accomplices with Sind. Most posts have been about nods with the rest of the players and some pokes and reads. Could be their inexperience and listening to a more experienced player, though the same could be said for me if I was Mafia. Admitting to actually benefiting from the fight and presenting information to relieve suspiciouns can be looked as a smart play from a Mafia Minty.
Player list:
First, we have Jackie. She was the first to hone down Tetra (I'm not counting Wind's nudge) with Dragonfree. We learn that she may have checked Free on N0 and got a guilty lead on Tetra. She claims to be a Cop and the proof she has is Free being an innocent and dead. She could've crafted an insanely big-brained plan that counted on Tetra being stressed and tired, Free's insistence on Tetra being Mafia or TP, and as a Mafia, she'd known that Free would be safe and thus can 'claim' to be a cop. Is this an insane idea? Yes. The chances of this happening? Probably pretty low.
Next, we have Mrs. Motivator herself. Being the first to be called out, contradict herself and general vagueness, and the first to suggest a TP, those in itself could be sus even with all those excuses(ie busyness and irl stuff). The scurrying and screaming with Jackie could easily be faked as there had been a 48-hour period of rest and planning. How likely is this? Pretty low but not off the table.
Then, we have Pano with Snot Bird. The main poker and theory-crafter, could be read as a townsplay or a low-key, safer Mafia play. Information is key to this person, and information helps both Mafia and Town. They don't provide much info themselves but do give out ideas and suggestions and that could be a subtle play of manipulation especially since they know most of the players around. Chances of being the mastermind that crafted this ploy? Low but is reaching the forty-percent marker for me.
Forthly, we have Sind. A very-detailed and methodical player, taking notes and paying attention to a lot of details. The information they give is helpful to plenty of people, though obviously it's more beneficial for town. Through this, there can be a chance that with their methodical approach in the game, they could easily provide information that's relevant to the current information known, and can say things that are carefully crafted due to their mechanical analysis. How likely do I think they're Mafia? Low to probably no chance. Chances of them being able to orchestra this? Pretty high if I have to be honest.
Minty, a new but pretty good player based on what I've seen. Taking notes and paying attention to details much like Sind, but they could use their newbieness to stay out of the spotlight and provide their insights on recent and old information. (ie: like using their new player status as an excuse) Their insights are pretty similar to Sind, which granted is a smart choice as Sind provided a butt load of things. They could've been buddies with Sind and take notes with one another, that and Minty had admitted to being one to benefit from the chaos. Chances of them being masterminds? None. Being partners with another like-minded individual? A high probability.
Another one, Wind, hard to read due to their low amount of responses. But from what I gathered, they have posted things that seem credible but could they possibly be? What if they were only saying it because they 'know' how to redirect suspicion off of them as well as them knowing how to gauge a person's response, and reply back with a well-crafted post. Chances of being the one behind the slaughter mess? Pretty low.
Later, we have Seren the gremlin poster. Their posts have mostly been about an apology to Tetra, another suggestion about something and denial of a TP. While yes, we don't have any evidence of a TP, that doesn't really rule out the possibility of one. Not much to go off due to the lack of posting. Chances of being the mastermind behind this operation? A smidge due to their lack of posting and information, could change depending on future posts. (This was written before Seren's recent post.)
Finally, we have me the Gummy Goomy. Not much else to go off, even their posts were not very detailed, a high suspect in some people's list due to their quietness. Timezone is different from the rest, and inactive while most are awake and active. A beginner but not as good as Minty though quickly learning as the game goes on (There are so many roles in Mafia, oh God why). Is the one who created this insanely large and irrational sounding list due to their lack of experience in both the game and the knowledge of the players' behaviors. Chances of being way too paranoid? High as hell. Wasted a lot of time typing this? A probability
Plays that could've be orchestrated by [*Insert name*] and others:
First fight between Free, Jackie and Tetra.
Free dies so it's obvious she's not Mafia though that doesn't rule out her potentially being a TP. Anyway, Jackie and Tetra, both had things to do and were stressed out by irl stuff. But N0 had 48 hours of planning and waiting, the fight could be staged and while Tetra later on D2 and D1 explains the irl stuff which could be true but could also be used as an excuse.
Free died and Jackie on D2 claimed to be a cop, and got a guilty read on Tetra, proceeds to argue again. Then Tetra suggests a Bus Driver which immediately catches everyone's attention and 'stops' Jackie from zoning onto her, essentially removing sus on both of them for a lot of people.
This fight could be easily one of the smartest plays in this game as it not only removes suspicions on them but also allows them to 'claim' useful roles, especially with how few people have raised suspicions about the timing of their claims.
The chances of them both being Mafia is rather high if you look at things like this, but at the same time they could also be genuine(who knows). Then, combined with everyone's reactions and the utter chaos that had dissolved, had solidify their cases as cleared.
Pano, like I had said earlier could be a TP or Mafia playing very safe, poking and prodding others into speaking while acting town-ish with their actions. Imagine a scenario where Pano is a TP, it'd make sense with the poking having dissolved into decent info and the small suggestions like the idea of a Silencer or mass-claiming. They were a bit quick to jump on the whole Tetra and Jackie claiming despite earlier saying that 'no one else' should claim anymore. Of course, this could be genuine town play but could also be a TP play or a three-scum play, with Pano being either the third scum with Tetra and Jackie, or a TP cashing in on the free info.
Yellow provided commentary on the fight, only interjecting with a few jibes and questions when Tetra suggested a TP involved. Seems pretty genuine though the pokes at Pano can be viewed as a play in trying to know what role Pano has, trying to get info on a potential threat maybe?
Sind providing useful info about the fight and things that'd happened, though could just be trying to win town, the large amount of detailed information does suggest townsplay but shouldn't be disregarded as a non-Mafia play seeing as earning the trust of others with info is a pretty easy thing to do, especially if you analyze things way too much.
Wind, providing some reads though most of them could just easily be nods to existing leads, possibly trying to get into townie's favour with going for what everyone's thinking.
Seren, I feel like is a bit biased towards their read on Tetra but then again, it could also be a play in trying to get into everyone's favour and Tetra's, or it could be trying to convince everyone on Tetra's innocence.
Minty, could be a bit sus depending on how you look at things, the attention to details, the presentation of information feels like they could be accomplices with Sind. Most posts have been about nods with the rest of the players and some pokes and reads. Could be their inexperience and listening to a more experienced player, though the same could be said for me if I was Mafia. Admitting to actually benefiting from the fight and presenting information to relieve suspiciouns can be looked as a smart play from a Mafia Minty.
That's about it, give me your further thoughts on this. I probably missed a few things as I'm typing this at night and nearing my bed time.
Flyg0n
Flygon connoisseur
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[[....This all hard to know what to do without knowing how exactly deflector/bus driver would work, but I assume they should be fairly close to the wiki description.
I do think we have an experienced player around doing some odd gambles. The biggest question is how likely a deflector role is to be town. That seems fairly anti-utility maybe? It seems more useful that on a small scumteam they might had a deflector.
Shinji still feels potentially scummy to me, but I also am hesitant to jump on that train. Something that has me side-eyeing loosely (very slightly) is HelloYellow tbh?
In my few times playing mafia, I often note that mafia players tend to be very measured, precise, helpful and a but... clinical? Thats not quite the right word but its close. Basically they sometimes feel like their demeanor feels like a front. I've seen yellow's scum play once and it feels a little similar. But then again I know full well plays can feel weird.
I've been rereading and the only other mild susses I have are maybe Wind and Seren? Its hard to be mad at Seren's defense though when it feels fairly reasonable. Not unlike mine.
I am tempted to vote shinji as well but everything feels so uncertain. The only person here I feel fairly sure of is maybe Pano, def jackie (unless this is the most preposterous galaxy play in the world llol). And maybe Sind...
Gonna review more]]
I do think we have an experienced player around doing some odd gambles. The biggest question is how likely a deflector role is to be town. That seems fairly anti-utility maybe? It seems more useful that on a small scumteam they might had a deflector.
Shinji still feels potentially scummy to me, but I also am hesitant to jump on that train. Something that has me side-eyeing loosely (very slightly) is HelloYellow tbh?
In my few times playing mafia, I often note that mafia players tend to be very measured, precise, helpful and a but... clinical? Thats not quite the right word but its close. Basically they sometimes feel like their demeanor feels like a front. I've seen yellow's scum play once and it feels a little similar. But then again I know full well plays can feel weird.
I've been rereading and the only other mild susses I have are maybe Wind and Seren? Its hard to be mad at Seren's defense though when it feels fairly reasonable. Not unlike mine.
I am tempted to vote shinji as well but everything feels so uncertain. The only person here I feel fairly sure of is maybe Pano, def jackie (unless this is the most preposterous galaxy play in the world llol). And maybe Sind...
Gonna review more]]
unrepentantAuthor
A cat that writes stories.
[[Tetra may have had the most heat on her but I got strong pro-Tetra vibes off Yellow, to the point I was considering gunning for her conditional on securing the Tetra lynch. Still, Mafia Deflector seems more likely to me than Bus Driver or Town Deflector. I just hate the idea of making firm assumptions without keeping other possibilities in mind.]]
[[Tetra's play was absolutely my least favourite so far on Days One and Two, with inconsistency, waffling, and some really dodgy claims. I've spent a while tunnelling on that. But a sensible scumteam would know that killing Free would have me go all in on Tetra whether I'm a cop or not. I can see them deploying Deflector/Bus Driver on her to fuck with me. For that reason, I'm trying very hard not to be blinded by my previous biases.]]
unrepentantAuthor
A cat that writes stories.
[[Emphasis mine. We are in the dark, here.]]
unrepentantAuthor
A cat that writes stories.
[[Excuse me, just woke up from a nap. The point of posting that was to emphasise that it would be weird and unusual and also pretty unfair if any redirection roles of any name had one target be random. (I know Humble Vale had some RNG but that's unusual for Mafia and it worked really well under Bluwii's weird custom ruleset.) I don't think this redirection was random. And I am, with stress ulcers forming, trusting Tetra for now. Which requires at least one redirection role to exist for me to have pinged her as guilty.]]
Flyg0n
Flygon connoisseur
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[[So, I am thinking about it more and the real question is - who would have killed Free? What did they hope to gain? On one hand, keeping Free alive could have easily let town mislynch me, between Jackie/free gunning for me.On the other, killing Free would be a good ploy to make jackie hone on me! Understandable, circumstances caused both of us to fumble/waffle a bit and gun for each other.
But why killed Free if my mislynch may have almost been guaranteed? (or at least it felt that way).
Who would have thought killing Free would be the ideal play? And did scum plan to kill free and Deflect Jackie? Which means it was someone who guessed Jackie was cop? It would require forethought but its insidiously effective.
Also, a question: Can a deflector be third party?
I trust you now :3. It's the only way you could be so determinedly certain. it explains why you tunneled me regardless of any defense and didn't really seem to consider my defenses (which fair! I would have done the same tbh).
Some potential thought lines below:
Anyways. So this means:
-someone watched D1, saw the sus on me and saw Jackie's sus + free's.
-Guessed Jackie was cop based on their plays
-Saw that high sus was on me
-Killed Free N1 and deflected a ping on me to someone else (not them maybe?) that they knew was guilty
-Set up Jackie to receive guilty, ensuring they could hone on me the next day
So maybe (maybe), the guilty person would be:
-Someone who only pretended to be shocked about deflector/bus driver
-Didn't want to side with Jackie too fast to avoid suspicion
-Is not surprised/faked surprise at Jackie's cop roleclaim
-Someone who was hesitant to believe I was innocent post roleclaim
-Someone keen enough to guess Jackie was a cop
-Someone keen enough to decide to kill Free (decent scum hunter) to further cause chaos
These are maybes though, since its hard to be certain of anything. Plus there's other explanations for a few of the above stuff.
-someone watched D1, saw the sus on me and saw Jackie's sus + free's.
-Guessed Jackie was cop based on their plays
-Saw that high sus was on me
-Killed Free N1 and deflected a ping on me to someone else (not them maybe?) that they knew was guilty
-Set up Jackie to receive guilty, ensuring they could hone on me the next day
So maybe (maybe), the guilty person would be:
-Someone who only pretended to be shocked about deflector/bus driver
-Didn't want to side with Jackie too fast to avoid suspicion
-Is not surprised/faked surprise at Jackie's cop roleclaim
-Someone who was hesitant to believe I was innocent post roleclaim
-Someone keen enough to guess Jackie was a cop
-Someone keen enough to decide to kill Free (decent scum hunter) to further cause chaos
These are maybes though, since its hard to be certain of anything. Plus there's other explanations for a few of the above stuff.
Purple=Neutral
Yellow= Vaguely side-eyeing
Readlist/thoughts
CHARACTER | SPECIES | PLAYER |
Loïc | Mimikyu | Sind |
Diamond | Sableye | Seren |
Anti Bravoman | Phantump | Wind |
Steven Stone | Empoleon | Pano |
Hana | Flygon | Me |
Professor Eleos | Gardevoir | Minty |
Litno | Goomy | Shinji |
Salem Weir | Purrloin | Jackie/UA |
Neo | Espeon | Yellow |