[TOWN WIN] Fourth Anniversary Vanilla Mafia

[Sinderella]

[[I have a workout class tonight and am about to take a nap; I will get more into the gritty after that, however at this moment in time, I do appreciate Jackie’s very intense analysis on the game. I feel like it holds water, but I’m still not convinced about the no lovers thing. I’m fully willing to eat crow if I’m wrong but I’d sooner believe there were lovers before a night specific-SK, or an SK that also decided to go for Free last night (because for why?????? I guess everyone would play that differently, that move just would not make any sense to me, but again, I’m prepped to eat my words).

I’m not prepared to vote yet because I still want to hear from Flygon. Jackie spoke and FauxFox spoke, so now I’m giving Flygon the courtesy before I cast my vote. There’s still over 24 hours left in the game, I know I have time to mull.

Additionally, I do want to hear from Starlight some more. I know i town-y vibed her but I’m still planning to re-analyze that previous game with her, as well as all my quotes I’ve pulled from her, because

Theo and Espurr had some good points

I’m fully sorry for coming down on you so hard FauxFox, but gurl WHERE? 90% of what he’s said has been him rewording. I’m requesting a full read list out of you tbh cuz i wanna know where your whole head is at]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Nice]]

 

[FauxFox]

I’m fully sorry for coming down on you so hard FauxFox, but gurl WHERE? 90% of what he’s said has been him rewording. I’m requesting a full read list out of you tbh cuz i wanna know where your whole head is at]]

[Don't worry about it, you can probably explain your suspicion easier than I can confirm my innocence, and I'll try to have a read list up in a bit, got some things I have to do real quick.]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Okay whew, finally off work.

addressing concerns about my "deductions": I guess I can see why it feels like I'm somehow the SK but I most definitely am not.(but I cqant expect anyone to believe me off that alone.

I'm not posting elaborate theories that don't make any sense, I made deductions based on misunderstandings or genuine slips in knowledge gaps that do make sense at the time and what information was available.

My opening assumption today, based on not knowing that SK + scum kill = overriding doctor and that I wasn't thinking SK would have the odd night kill thing. My first few posts were just thinking out loud speculations of what reasonable explanation there would be. With my first incorrect belief of SK being able to kill every night, I said it made no sense that SK wouldn't kill tonight. Now knowing that double kills are a thing, this is a possibility.

This was followed by the mistake of not straight up forgetting about doctor only blocking one shot. (As absurd as it sounds I just did not remember past mafia games at all here)

I'll trying to outline the chain of thought that lead to my deductions. The prevailing theories Day 1 were lovers, or SK. I wasn't thinking about the mathematical balance of having odd night kills for an SK, somewhat foolishly had not even considered this a possibility initially. But then I also raised the conundrum that our doctor or bodyguard messed up somehow, which also seems really weird.

My following posts were a rebuttal towards jackie for being sussed and a counter.

If you consider my previous plays of other games of eagerly jumping onto a clue when I think I have found something and getting way to focused, these behaviors aren't out of line.

My whole focus has been trying to figure out how and why we had 2 kills and then 1, and if we need to hunt for an SK or just two scum (or well, one now?).

I've also historically been reluctant to vote hasty unless some quirk catches my eye (lovers trauma triggered) that makes me feel like I found someone to vote for (or if I got voted for something). Have I frequently been wrong or gotten tunnel vision? Absolutely, that whole kerfuffle of jackie and I being town and sussing each other bc of other stuff is prime evidence.

But I don't think I'm exactly making absurd claims or even claiming anything definitive as much as saying something that I had understood to be true but missed a detail.

Rather different from blowing smoke or saying anything safe (in fact i guess I'm trying too hard or being too eager to solve so im playing too reckless and hurting town? sorry y'all). Being good town also means notacting scummy and being more helpful to avoid needless picking and I'm not there yet... Maybe I'll try to wrangle myself in and approach this slower and more logically.

So I'll try to contemplate some theories.

[[OOC. I am making a series of assumptions I consider reasonable.]]

1. Town was 7-strong to begin with. (I would consider anything less unbalanced, knowing that a 2-elimination night was possible at least once – imagine if on Day One we were already at eliminate-or-lose lmao – and anything more would be cruel to the Mafia.)
2. We probably only had one info role, and therefore have no Cop. (Any more than that would be very powerful! Our info role was Jean, and she was Rolecop for balance considerations.)
3. Chibi was the only Strongman. (Multiple Strongman uses is just hideously unfair. Why even have Doctor/Bodyguard/Bulletproof??)
4. If a Bodyguard existed, they were Wind or Seren, and are now dead. (A living Bodyguard should have intercepted a kill meant for Jean, unless something dumb and weird is the case.)
5. If a living Doctor exists, then two eliminations were performed on Jean last night. Also, a living Doctor may not actually exist.
6. At least some of us are Vanilla roles – my gut says 2-4. (It would be weird to advertise a Vanilla game with Villager and Goon on the role list and then have the game be Role Madness actually.)
7. Two kills on Night One is best explained by a Serial Killer, or by Lovers, and I heavily favour the former explanation. (I would be aghast if a Vigilante shot blind, I don't think it's likely that scum can double-kill, and I will eat my hat – and then Yellow – if it was Heal Clash.)
8. If we have a Serial Killer, we probably don't also have a Vigilante. That opens up a potential 3-kill night!
9. If we have a Serial Killer, we probably don't also have Lovers. Ditto.
10. Same goes for Vig/Lovers.
11. I just don't think it's very likely that we'd have Lovers in a game this small. Plus, I just think Yellow doesn't like the role! Hell, they're listed at the very bottom of the list. Vibes, I know, but I think they're in the list mostly to pad out the list.
12. To rephrase the gist of the last few points: I believe two kills means one of SK/Vig/Lovers and I think Vig is impossible and Lovers are less likely than SK.

I like this listing of possibilities. Not as a gurantee non-scum or non-sk, but just in the sense that the laying out of chain of thought is good.

I also think the points here generally track. I am still unwilling to write anything off entirely, even lovers, but I definitely agree there would never be heal clash in a yellow game, this is literally never gonna happen, she's not that mean.

Also SK and Vig in the same game is not likely, and a Vig who killed randomly the first night seems implausaible.

SK certainly seems more likely than not.

One other small possibility is bodyguard/doctor protected someone else last night, someone they had strong reason to believe was worth it. That's a small chance to be sure but its definitely worth contemplating still! it would be a very very odd choice but i don't want to discount that perhaps they thought there was something else...

Speculations/Theories:

So I waaass about to do a long write-up about theories about SK's and lovers and etc such but that seemed redudant and unhelpful as far as actually finding the killer or someone to vote. Especially since I spent the first half of the day throwing speculative thoughts into the wind but not doing much.

I hate voting without actual stronger vibes and no matter how many times someone explains it I still feel like not voting is better BUT I know this is wrong and not how the meta works. So its Day 2 and somethings gotta happen... Either there's lovers & SK, or three scum, seven town, but whichever the case there's three killing roles, right? So thats the bit that matters, at least in the sense I'm gonna focus on that. Chibi is dead, so that leaves two potential killers.

So instead I'm gonna just go straight for my readlist.

• Jackie - Mild sus. leaning townier than not but also feeling some kind of way about the manner in which they first presented their theories. The approach. This is a hard one to articulate but it felt like things were said with a sense of definitive assumptions when we don't know yet. As if spoken from a place of knowing too much. I apologize to other townies if this doesn't make sense. I think they're helpful and trying really hard but I also feel like... maybe there's an ulterior motive, is that makes any sense? Then again historically jackie has always been vote happy so maybe this is me not liking getting voted... I'd hate to be salty and lynch town just based on that. I bring this up because maybe someone else will see something I haven't.
• Fauxfox - Mild sus. Nothing personal. Quieter, made some nice posts, and made some good points and level headed, but cautious. maybe too cautious and constrained. it wouldn't be unreasonable to presume this is a play to avoid drawing ire from any party. I actually think your play is fine I just think its... fine. Like I don't think you've done anything wrong but yeah, tracks a bit in a way where maybe its someone riding the background.
• Espy - more sus. Too quiet. I know espy is historically not an active player but its always hard to judge. Because if scum, why bother changing from being less active? perfect defense, but one I am not willing to blindly follow.
• Starlight - Mainly town, feels like they're taking a measured approach and analyzing details in a way town would? Not willing to ignore but I looked over their posts and it doesn't feel like their approach is underhanded.
• Sind - probably pinging the most towny for me, I generally feel like there's a sense that her behaviour matches previous games in a non-forced way? Feels helpful, but not in a way thats with any underlying motive to hinder town either.

I am of two frames of mind, one that if we have an SK would want to be helpful and open as possible or they would lay low and play things ultra quiet. I can't help but wonder about Espy still? I don't like judging based only on activity but...

There's time to change my vote off Jackie so I may yet do so.

Until then I'm either gonna be reviewing old posts or busy writing, heh]]

 

[FauxFox]

[Here is my read list. Take this with a grain of salt, as I have no clue how you all usually play, and am just going with my personal thoughts from this so far with my little experience from playing this game years ago.

Sinderella: Likely town. Sure they are pushing me, but that is because I seem to be acting a little suspicious, so valid reasoning, but wrong target. The more I look the more innocent they seem, even with their seemingly random theories at the beginning.

Unrepentant Author: I’m like 50/50 with this one. Lots of good theories, but could be trying to redirect attention.

Starlight: Either town or really, really good actor. Probably town. Only suspicion on them seems to just be due to a genuine misunderstanding, unless they were trying to waste time.

Flyg0n: I feel like this one is a 50/50 too, for the same reasons some of you think I might be guilty, with the whole focusing on a few specific theories and wrong information, though that could be chalked up to just generally forgetting.

Sparkling Espeon: Probably town, that’s all I’ve really got to say with this one.

I know this isn’t the best list, but it is what I got from what I’ve gathered, and frankly I am not the best at this. Criticisms and advice for working on it better are accepted and encouraged.]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Readlist that says everyone's probably Town except two 50:50s, when there's most likely two anti-town left, but also not committing to suspicion on me or Tetra. That feels like something Mafia would do. Gonna sleep on it. Might switch my vote.]]

 

[FauxFox]

[I say 50/50 because it very well could go either way, and other than me there are only two people who are consistently at least somewhat suspicious.]
"There is a possibility of someone being bulletproof based on the rolelist, right? So what if we didn't have overlapping killers, but one of them instead hit a bulletproof townie? The only way for that to be dealt with would be either Strongman or voting elimination, so they would need to try and convince us that said townie is suspicious." Theo proposed. "I know I am not the first to bring up the possibility of a bulletproof, but I don't think we have touched on it too much. Maybe something worth looking into, though it isn't something we can confirm. I'm not saying I'm bulletproof, but it is something to consider." Theo stopped to think. "And we need to hit a killer with this vote, because if there isn't a bulletproof anymore, then it will be either a mafia or serial killer win, unless my math is wrong. If we vote out a townie, then that leaves five, two of which are killers. If those killers both kill townies, that leaves two killers and one town, and if it is a mafia and a serial killer, then this will most likely end with either one of them winning, or a draw. I realize this is all over the place, but I think I die soon either way."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Been waiting to see if anyone would mention that possibility. Interesting. I'm busy with house move stuff, so discuss that among yourselves and I'll get back to you about it later.]]

 

[Starlight Aurate]

"There is a possibility of someone being bulletproof based on the rolelist, right? So what if we didn't have overlapping killers, but one of them instead hit a bulletproof townie? The only way for that to be dealt with would be either Strongman or voting elimination, so they would need to try and convince us that said townie is suspicious."

Maressa nodded. "That's a possibility, too. And if we do want to cover all possible bases, we could have had a successful Doctor last night--both a killer and a doctor went after the same person, and thus only one death. But it wouldn't have made sense for a Doctor to go after someone other than Jean, so I'm not holding my breath on this.

"I've been thinking about the deaths on the first two nights: people say that they were random, but if you were a killer concerned about who a Doctor would protect, you'd go after people of moderate priority, wouldn't you? Both Stygian and Jean are very good at this game, and so it's most likely that a Doctor would try to protect either of them. A Mafia party member and a Serial Killer would probably recognize that and decide to go after other people, players who are capable, but not considered as prolific as Jean or Stygian. So even though nobody knew about players' abilities, I don't think that the first two deaths were totally random."

I’m fully willing to eat crow if I’m wrong but I’d sooner believe there were lovers before a night specific-SK, or an SK that also decided to go for Free last night (because for why?????? I guess everyone would play that differently, that move just would not make any sense to me, but again, I’m prepped to eat my words).

"I understand what you're saying, but it's also possible that the Serial Killer didn't realize that a Rolecop wouldn't reveal a Serial Killer role. Until Whiskey pointed that out, I had no idea about it--and if I were a Serial Killer, I'd want to eliminate any possibility of being found out."

I’m fully sorry for coming down on you so hard FauxFox, but gurl WHERE? 90% of what he’s said has been him rewording.

Maressa patted the Zuroa's head fondly. "I thought his points were good because he was agreeing with me."

Have I frequently been wrong or gotten tunnel vision? Absolutely, that whole kerfuffle of jackie and I being town and sussing each other bc of other stuff is prime evidence.

"Huh, when did this happen?"

I am still unwilling to write anything off entirely, even lovers, but I definitely agree there would never be heal clash in a yellow game, this is literally never gonna happen, she's not that mean.

"Ugh, a heal clash... I guess it's possible?" Maressa grimaced. The ability to heal, turned into an ability to kill... She shuddered.

"If a heal clash is possible, then it would track that there are two doctors within this game, and one or two Mafia members, no killers, and the deaths on the first night were lovers. Or an even-night Serial Killer, since Anti-Bravo-Man and Kari died on Night Zero."

She shook her head. There were too many things going on.

Two kills on Night One is best explained by a Serial Killer, or by Lovers, and I heavily favour the former explanation.

"But why? I'm not saying it's an unreasonable theory, but you've been heavily in favor of a Serial Killer possibility over Lovers from the very beginning, and I just don't know where it's coming from. This is the biggest thing that's making me pause on you. Why are you so certain we have two killing teams at work here? If you're Innocent, then whether someone is a Serial Killer or Mafia member amounts to the same thing, right? But if you're a Mafia member, then a Serial Killer is a much bigger concern, isn't it?"

If we have a Serial Killer, we probably don't also have Lovers. Ditto.

"Because of the potential for four people to die in one night?"

I’m requesting a full read list out of you tbh cuz i wanna know where your whole head is at]]

Maressa sighed. "I get it, I've just been doing a lot of wild speculation and haven't really gotten us anywhere, okay?" She ran her hands through her long, golden hair. Her head throbbed--she didn't do well in social deduction situations like this. If she did, then she would have never joined Team Aqua...

She shook her head. They weren't here--they couldn't hurt her. She had other, more urgent matters to worry about.

"All right."

She looked up at the person and Pokemon staring expectantly at her.

"The two I'm most concerned about are Whiskey and Loaf, for right now. I know I said that I liked Loaf before, but... I don't know, maybe I'm starting to agree with others that he's been throwing theories around. His misunderstanding is totally forgivable--believe me, I know what it's like to get these game mechanics mixed up. But I don't really feel a reason to defend him.

"As for the others, the Espurr had some good points earlier, but I feel she hasn't said enough for me to get a good read on. Noel, though he's... what he is, has felt helpful. Though, I do think that the person controlling him made large posts with a lot of quoting like that in a previous game to appear Innocent and they turned out to be a killer, isn't that correct? So I'm not super confident about him yet, but I do feel good overall. And yes, Theo has mostly been rewording others, but he's also new, so I'm feeling more forgiving towards him."

Maressa shook her head. "That's where I'm at right now. I'm keeping my vote on Whiskey for the time being, though I might be convinced to change my mind in the morning." She yawned and stretched. Though the others were just fully waking up, she felt like she had just passed a full day. Perhaps, in the world where she lived, the sun rose and set at opposite times than it did for the others. "I need to get to sleep. I'll see what you all are up to tomorrow."

 

[Flyg0n]

"Huh, when did this happen?"

[[Oh, apologies for the confusion, I was referring to a previous mafia game here, something with busses and redirection and other craziness. Jackie and I almost tore into each other because we were thinking the other was sus when it was a bus driver thing... or smth like that. The details are fuzzy.

"Ugh, a heal clash... I guess it's possible?" Maressa grimaced. The ability to heal, turned into an ability to kill... She shuddered.

"If a heal clash is possible, then it would track that there are two doctors within this game, and one or two Mafia members, no killers, and the deaths on the first night were lovers. Or an even-night Serial Killer, since Anti-Bravo-Man and Kari died on Night Zero."

She shook her head. There were too many things going on.

I think you misunderstood my post? Heal clash is decidedly not possible, I was agreeing with the sentiment expressed that yellow would never be so cruel. Or if it is, then clearly I don't know yellow, lol.

I'll be at work most of the day and then some important errands so if I'm not around, thats why. I'll check in before day close though.]]

 

[Sinderella]

Note that when I voted FauxFox, Chibi didn't join the wagon, they voted for Espy, who has pretty Towny vibes to me right now.

Stygian cast a glance over the crowd, considering everyone. "The Espurr hasn't spoken yet, either. We need to hear from her." The Voice in her head was saying that this Espurr's allegiances very often came into question from saying very little. The sooner they could get that out of the way, the sooner they could know if it was a waste of time to deal with her.

"Espurr, what are your thoughts?" Stygian asked, ruby-red eyes fixed on the psychic cat.

@SparklingEspeon

Noel raised a brow at the absol-morph. His name was...Bourbon? Whisky? Actually, Whisky sounded more right.

"Actually, that didn't...strike me as an attempt as a train, I thought that was a vote to get him to come out? And that other absol, as you can see here, didn't vote anyone. Just poked [[tagged]] the espurr for thought. So I'm not sure what you're on about there."

Chibi was the only Strongman. (Multiple Strongman uses is just hideously unfair. Why even have Doctor/Bodyguard/Bulletproof??)

[[Iiiiii have to politely disagree with this. In my opinion, I think a scumteam of two each with one single strongman shot and no other killing parties feels in the realm of balanced to me? It's always possible to bait a strongman shot to wash it out, so idk, not totally sold.]]

This was followed by the mistake of not straight up forgetting about doctor only blocking one shot. (As absurd as it sounds I just did not remember past mafia games at all here)

[[Gurl I don't blame you, I forget certain mechanics even exist half the time LMAO]]

"There is a possibility of someone being bulletproof based on the rolelist, right? So what if we didn't have overlapping killers, but one of them instead hit a bulletproof townie?

Noel nodded in agreement with the zorua. "Oh! That's a nice theory, actually. I didn't think of that..." He touched a finger to his lip. "I suppose in a realm of possibility for a relatively balanced game."

A Mafia party member and a Serial Killer would probably recognize that and decide to go after other people, players who are capable, but not considered as prolific as Jean or Stygian.

[[Sure but we could also have more inexperienced players who wouldn't know any better and just shoot at whoever]]

"I understand what you're saying, but it's also possible that the Serial Killer didn't realize that a Rolecop wouldn't reveal a Serial Killer role. Until Whiskey pointed that out, I had no idea about it--and if I were a Serial Killer, I'd want to eliminate any possibility of being found out."

Noel shrugged. "Skill issue."

[[I don't actually mean that lmao. I did say everyone would play that differently so it is what it is, I just personally think that's a HORRIBLE move for a potential SK]]

Noel, though he's... what he is, has felt helpful. Though, I do think that the person controlling him made large posts with a lot of quoting like that in a previous game to appear Innocent and they turned out to be a killer, isn't that correct?

Noel threw his hands out to his sides. "Sis, what is your issue? Do you have a male aversion? Is it my tracksuit? You know what, don't answer that." He held up both his hands. "I'm gonna stay a nice 20 feet back from you; I don't deal well with uncalled-for passive aggression."

He took his strides back and sat on the fountain. "Anyway, yeah. The bot I have over my shoulder has had tri-folds like that made in every game since they played one with some woman named Mademoiselle and has flipped scum...one time since then. So I guess you can be wary, but I can assure you wholeheartedly that in this instance, we're town."

"Ugh, a heal clash... I guess it's possible?" Maressa grimaced. The ability to heal, turned into an ability to kill... She shuddered.

[[Nobody was saying heal clash was possible lmao Flygon was saying it was likely NOT possible]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

[[Okay I knew anything from me was probably going to come in ~the last six hours due to time constraints. I am also not the best at talking role meta, so rather than throwing my hat in and causing more confusion I thought I'd wait and let people who were better at that than me hash the meta stuff out before I jumped in fully. Probably should have posted about that up-front. but after reading the thread very carefully multiple times over and taking some time to think, here's another bigpost:

It seems to me like whatever the actual balance is, the cleave-through point is that we still have at least one, likely two, people in the game who are managing to fly under the radar. I'm not really too worried about figuring out whether it was a SK/lovers or what our doctors/bodyguards were up to, bc to me the balance doesn't super matter at this point? Literally all we have to do is hit scum today, and then either the game ends, we hit the SK and answer that question, or there were three mafia. (which I consider unlikely, so I'm fairly sure it's one mafia playing defence here) I'll also say, and I guess let me know if I sound nuts, that I don't think we particularly need to judge by theories on the meta not adding up - bc imo this entire thing is a smokescreen. It actually benefits scum to be correct/sound plausible here, if we're already convinced the scum thing to do is make up a weird story/be inconsistent. Scum could totally have/posit the correct theory, but at the end of the day we're pretty much guessing no matter what :/. With that in mind, my intuition is...

Feel good about:
Sind - I'd be very surprised if not town? They've been far by the most proactive of the town-aligned players, and while they're savvy and could absolutely be evil I generally feel good about this one.
Tetra - The main thing that pinged off to me about Tetra was the abrupt dismissal of the idea of an SK at the start of D2, but it also seems to me like that might have been a genuine slipup. In actual behaviour Tetra doesn't strike me as someone playing to obfuscate, and so while there might be a small chance of her being like, a SK, I don't necessarily think this is the best hit for now.

Don't feel good about:
Starlight - I'm leaning town, but also recognise that she's not really posted much of anything beyond meta discussion and so I feel kinda dodgy vibes. general scum/not-town undetection strat to me seems to be to seem as normal as possible while not really adding anything useful. This feels to me like it could be lowkey not town.

Feel not-good about:
Fauxfox - his style in general strikes me as quite First Time Player, but it is also kinda shady and I don't know if this is a case of feeling out of their depth or a case of being mafia and trying to go lowkey to hide it. Big on my sus-list.
Jackie [soft mafia] - if any of us are likely to be mafia, I do suspect it's Jackie. Jackie has an aggro playstyle, but I don't think it's wrong that she kind of came in guns-a-blazin' at the beginning and with a lot of strange assumptions. Turning around and then analysing the meta very thoroughly isn't necessarily proof of innocence to me (they have also been far by the most consistent about keeping our attention on the meta), and they've been the most trigger-happy over the course of the day about starting vote trains.

tldr if we eliminate someone today, I don't feel like we have anything more than gut feelings for anyone, but the most likely of our options to be mafia is Jackie/Fauxfox, leaning slightly Jackie.

 

[SparklingEspeon]

[[aaaa I posted the wrong version of the readlist (this is what I get for having multiple forum tabs open) 🙃

Feel good about:
Sind - I'd be very surprised if not town? They've been far by the most proactive of the town-aligned players, and while they're savvy and could absolutely be evil I generally feel good about this one.
Tetra - The main thing that pinged off to me about Tetra was the abrupt dismissal of the idea of an SK at the start, but it also seems to me like that might have been a genuine slipup. In actual behaviour Tetra doesn't strike me as someone playing to obfuscate, and so while there might be a small chance of her being like, a SK, I don't necessarily think this is the best hit for now.

Don't feel good about:
Starlight - I'm leaning town, but also recognise that she's not really posted much of anything beyond meta discussion and so I feel kinda dodgy vibes. general scum/not-town undetection strat to me seems to be to seem as normal as possible while not really adding anything useful. This feels to me like it could be lowkey not town. But if we hit someone today and they flip innocent, I'd probably start side-eyeing Starlight next.

Feel not-good about:
Fauxfox - his style in general strikes me as quite First Time Player, but it is also kinda shady and I don't know if this is a case of feeling out of their depth or a case of being mafia and trying to go lowkey to hide it. Somewhat large on my sus-list but the awkwardness is also a factor.
Jackie [soft mafia] - if any of us are likely to be mafia, I do suspect it's Jackie. Jackie has an aggro playstyle, but I don't think it's wrong that she kind of came in guns-a-blazin' at the beginning and with a lot of assumptions. Turning around and then analysing the meta very thoroughly isn't necessarily proof of innocence to me (they have also been far by the most consistent about keeping our attention on the meta), and they've been the most trigger-happy over the course of the day about tunneling in on other people. Which is a lowkey 'pls vote someone else asap' strategy to me.

tldr if we eliminate someone today, I don't feel like we have Hard Proof(tm) for anyone, but the most likely of our options to be mafia is Jackie/Fauxfox, leaning slightly Jackie.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[We're running out of time and I've exhausted myself today doing house move stuff so I'm not likely to get an effortpost in sharpish but:

• I'm still feeling good about Sind and Espy
• Not sure how I'm feeling about Tetra and Star
• Moderately suspicious of FauxFox

Have a bunch of thoughts about the effects of timezones, Discord use and suchlike on Mafia behaviour.

Also have thoughts about what people have said about Bulletproof. It's true that one kill last night could be explained by one shot hitting a bulletproof. But I am quite certain that this is not what happened, which is why I didn't consider the possibility.

Bit disappointed at the lack of confidence in me as Town, if I'm honest. I suppose I can see understand some of the given reasons, but I was low key expecting to safely coast considering how much powertowning I've been doing. Why is aggressive voting being described as a scumtell? I'm always leading votes as Town in these games, and I dare you to find me three examples of Mafia leading wagons. Besides, Town's only win condition is voting people out, while Mafia can pick everyone off at night and prevaricate during the day – trying to vote players is (often) less sus than trying to prevent it, and the only player we've voted out so far confessed first. We haven't made any blind eliminations! We have no voting information to judge people by! Let's bloody well kill someone and then stitch up anybody whose arguments are sus in hindsight once we know the result.

Anyway, this post was a softclaim.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Alright, we're approaching Night Three. It's exhausted no filter unhinged rapidposting time.

"If a heal clash is possible, then it would track that there are two doctors within this game, and one or two Mafia members, no killers, and the deaths on the first night were lovers. Or an even-night Serial Killer, since Anti-Bravo-Man and Kari died on Night Zero."

She shook her head. There were too many things going on.

Multiple people dimissed Heal Clash as impossible so I really don't know what to make of the quoted text.

"But why? I'm not saying it's an unreasonable theory, but you've been heavily in favor of a Serial Killer possibility over Lovers from the very beginning, and I just don't know where it's coming from. This is the biggest thing that's making me pause on you. Why are you so certain we have two killing teams at work here? If you're Innocent, then whether someone is a Serial Killer or Mafia member amounts to the same thing, right? But if you're a Mafia member, then a Serial Killer is a much bigger concern, isn't it?"

- Mafia having multiple kills on night one is dumb
- Vigilante shooting on night one is dumb
- I'll eat my hat if Yellow put Lovers in this game
- I'll eat fifty hats if Yellow put Heal Clash in this game
- It has to be a fucking SK and I'm sus of anyone who insists otherwise

"Because of the potential for four people to die in one night?"

Three people, not four. But yes.

...Where'd you get four from?

Though, I do think that the person controlling him made large posts with a lot of quoting like that in a previous game to appear Innocent and they turned out to be a killer, isn't that correct?

Sind's done it more times as Town than Mafia. It's standard.

[[Oh, apologies for the confusion, I was referring to a previous mafia game here, something with busses and redirection and other craziness. Jackie and I almost tore into each other because we were thinking the other was sus when it was a bus driver thing... or smth like that. The details are fuzzy.

I was cop and pinged you as scum, then "tunnelled" you, so you tunnelled me super hard back. Eventually I claimed cop, and you freaked the fuck out and made a dozen posts in rapid succession about every crazy possibility that would explain how a cop could ping a townie as scum. The theory that we deduced was correct was that a bus driver had swapped you with someone else. This secured the game for town iirc.

"Actually, that didn't...strike me as an attempt as a train, I thought that was a vote to get him to come out? And that other absol, as you can see here, didn't vote anyone. Just poked [[tagged]] the espurr for thought. So I'm not sure what you're on about there."

That's fair! I just have a pet theory that Chibi would have fought back or worked to plant misleading ideas if the scumteam had been strong. The way they instantly confessed and dipped has been bugging me a little, and it's lead me to suspect that they had one less-active or timezone-incompatible buddy, and became demoralised as a result of the difficulty of coordinating. That could implicate FauxFox. That could implicate Star. It could implicate Espy but I don't feel like it's her.

[[Iiiiii have to politely disagree with this. In my opinion, I think a scumteam of two each with one single strongman shot and no other killing parties feels in the realm of balanced to me? It's always possible to bait a strongman shot to wash it out, so idk, not totally sold.]]

I'll eat my hat if there were multiple Strongman shots. And then I'll defenestrate Yellow. However, your insistence makes me read you as Hard Town, tbph. I think if you were scum you wouldn't be saying this whether it was true or not.

the balance doesn't super matter at this point? Literally all we have to do is hit scum today, and then either the game ends, we hit the SK and answer that question, or there were three mafia.

This is true, actually. I've been kinda blinkered about the meta discussion bc I've had a chip on my shoulder about the SK discourse. But Espy's right.

if any of us are likely to be mafia, I do suspect it's Jackie.

If you're town and you get me killed I am going to DM you this along with my alignment flip every single day for a month.

(Love you very much, my dear friend. <3 But I genuinely will give you so much shit about this lol)

Anyway if folks don't wanna vote Tetra, fine, I'll switch my vote. Won't vote for Sind or Espy. Will vote for Faux, or Star. Very reluctant to vote No Elimination because we've got multiple night kills going and haven't miseliminated yet and lost our info role and desperately need social info via vote history to start actually catching people out. C'monnnnnn!! Town should be aggressive as hell right now!]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Also, I ask you this: if Chibi and I, as partners, both rolled Mafia together, as a pair of grumpy absol, I guarantee you that A. we'd have been too giddy with delight not to do some serious coordinated effortposting to get Free daykilled or set up future plans and B. I would've instantly lost motivation for the game so hard that I'd not have bothered with any of this effortposting, let alone between exhausting hours of work completing my house move!]]

 

[FauxFox]

"Since I haven't voted yet today, I'm voting Loaf." Theo stated. "They are the one I personally feel is the most suspicious right now."
@HelloYellow17

 

[Sinderella]

[[I still......don't feel particularly convinced by any of my scum reads and now I'm getting a little hand wave-y at Starlight the more I'm re-reading her posts. But there's definitely not enough time to fully re-examine her and Tetra and Jackie both made posts that I feel pretty good about but one again, I'm still not 100% certain neither one of them aren't innocent. And now I've just lost water in my home because of a plumbing emergency and am very frazzled and I know the day is about to end.

Sigh. I am so sorry about this my man, I feel like I have REAMED you and this is your first game here, but I have to go with my gut rn. Vote FauxFox @HelloYellow17 (no hard feelings i feel so bad :((( ) ]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

That's fair! I just have a pet theory that Chibi would have fought back or worked to plant misleading ideas if the scumteam had been strong

Also, I ask you this: if Chibi and I, as partners, both rolled Mafia together, as a pair of grumpy absol, I guarantee you that A. we'd have been too giddy with delight not to do some serious coordinated effortposting to get Free daykilled or set up future plans and B. I would've instantly lost motivation for the game so hard that I'd not have bothered with any of this effortposting, let alone between exhausting hours of work completing my house move!

Let's bloody well kill someone and then stitch up anybody whose arguments are sus in hindsight once we know the result

[[I think these are fair and we do need to vote for someone now before the hammer falls, so gonna vote FauxFox. (no hard feelings I promise :/) At the very least, an innocent flip is one less thing to worry about tomorrow.]]

If you're town and you get me killed I am going to DM you this along with my alignment flip every single day for a month.

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Pay careful attention to how that vote went down. "Dead air dead town" doesn't really apply when there might only be one mafia left, but we don't know that FauxFox is scum, and if we're all voting for him, and he flips town, one of those votes (or two lol) came from anti-town and we'll neeed to figure out which. Anyway, looks like everyone's going for Faux, which is fine by me. My voting intention for tomorrow depends on the outcome of the elimination and N3 actions, but it's most likely going to be Starlight, I think.]]

@HelloYellow17 votin' fox