[TOWN WIN] Fourth Anniversary Vanilla Mafia

[HelloYellow17]

Silence fell as the fountain warped once again, this time creating all kinds of nonsensical formations as it spiraled up into the air. Mew burst from the water, spraying anyone who stood nearby, and flew in rapid circles overhead.

What an exciting day! So many theories and mysterious and not enough answers! She was quite pleased with everyone’s efforts to solve the puzzle. This was proving to be entertaining, indeed!

Now it was time to wind down for another night. But first…

She approached Stygian with a giggle and sent her a telepathic wave of approval. It had wonderful performance from the Absol, indeed! It was a shame it all had to end so quickly.

Stygian met her gaze unflinchingly. The Absol had paid the whispering onlookers no mind, and even as Mew flicked her tail and summoned a massive rainbow bubble around her, she showed no sign of alarm or fear.

Mew chirped at that. A brave one to the end. She could respect that.

Slowly, the bubble containing Stygian rose into the air, and Stygian’s fur did bristle a little as her paws left the ground—but even as the bubble rose higher and higher, she held her chin high, eyes sharp with resolve.

Then Mew poked the bubble, and with a pop!, Stygian was gone.

Mew cartwheeled over the heads of the remaining players, relishing in their shocked expressions. See! Wasn’t this game so fun? Eliminated players got to ride in a bubble! What’s not to love about that?

She rocketed up into the sky until the mists consumed her. Below, the fountain sputtered and light up once more:

STYGIAN THE ABSOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED. SHE WAS MAFIA.

COUNTDOWN TO DAY 2 HAS BEGUN.

[[Vote tally: Unanimous. 8/8 votes for Stygian.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

Jean wasn't surprised when they came for her. She'd exposed one of them, and the Absol had promised she wouldn't survive the night.

It was just a game, but she was still a little scared. It was a little pretend, the thrill of imagining high stakes with no way of getting out, and a little something else, a wavering uncertainty. This was all a bit weird. Her dad always said Mew didn't exist. Nothing was very normal here. So could it be the sort of game where when you die in the game you die in real life...?

She'd been a hero. She had. She'd caught one of the bad guys all by herself. She'd been awesome and she hadn't even had to torch anyone. Her dad would be proud.

---

Dawn broke once more, dispelling the mists and lighting the quiet town square. As the remaining members emerged from their abodes, they noticed that once again, their ranks were smaller. Quieter. And this time, the absence of a bright and energetic presence was poignantly felt. The fountain sputtered and formed the words:

JEAN HAS BEEN ELIMINATED. SHE WAS TOWN.

Mew rose from the bubbling fountain, a little more subdued than before. She had been sad to see the little fox-girl go; she'd been quite fun to have around. She hoped Jean liked the bubble she'd been confined to with the other eliminated players in a separate pocket dimension. Always a bummer to be tagged out of a game, but at least a fun bubble made up for it! Right?

She twirled around the fountain and waved cheerily to the participants. Another day! Another round! What would they discover next? As their numbers grew smaller, the tensions rose higher. She giggled and splashed water at several nearby participants with a flick of her tail.

COUNTDOWN TO NIGHT 2 HAS BEGUN.

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"But there's no reason to think she used the strongman ability. I'm a rolecop, so I just see what their role is, not if they used it. And you knew I was a rolecop, because you marked me as a rolecop in your list."

Whiskey's brow furrowed. "If she didn't use the Strongman ability, why would she have opted to make the factional kill...?"

He glanced aside and muttered something under his breath.

"Possibly because there are no Goon players, and the other Mafia were needed for other Night actions? I felt quite certain that there would be a Goon in this configuration. And therefore, naturally, that they would be selected for the factional kill in preference over Stygian."

He gave Jean a crooked, weary stare. "What do you believe I am misunderstanding, young miss?"

She rose slowly to her feet. "But... If you believe that Stygian is a bad guy, then it wouldn't make any sense for me to not be a good guy. I'm the one who revealed her. If I was on her team, that'd be really weird! And if I was something else like a serial killer, then how would I have known she was a strongman in the first place? That doesn't make any sense."

She shook her head and took a deep breath. "I still think you're one of the bad guys. But thanks for not being mad, Mr. Whiskey." She smiled hesitantly. "Don't worry. It's just a game. I'm glad I got to meet another Pokémorph. One who's grown-up! That's really cool."

Whiskey rolled his eyes and growled irritably, but he couldn't maintain too harsh a tone. After all, the girl was merely a child, and... Well, perhaps he would rather incisive earnestness than duplicity and prevarication.

"I know, I know," he grumbled, "an outright role-specific accusation leading to a confession confirms beyond reasonable doubt in a vanilla configuration that you are Town. It's the principle of the thing. Can't let someone coast the whole game on 'bussing their scumbuddy', as they say."

Whisky blinked. He'd been ready to say all that, and then the Day had just.... ended.

And nobody had protected Jean in the night.

"There goes the possibility that we have an attentive Doctor or Bodyguard," he growled, bitterly. "Very well – we must assume that no protective role survives. And we can not safely assume that we have a living Cop, either. Jean's Rolecop power was very likely our entire Info Role apparatus. Hopefully some living Town have a useful power. Do try to keep quiet about it, yes?"

 

[Flyg0n]

[[So did our Doctor die or something? I'm trying to wrap my head around this, I hope not but then if lovers are the reason two players died N1, how did our power roles miss protecting our rolecop. Noone should like, claim but I'm just... what?
Hhhh hmmm]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Whiskey stared at the leavened canine. "Why are you so sure that the first two deaths were Lovers? We still have no evidence for that, and at least one other perfectly sensible and applicable explanation. Obviously they were not Lovers, and two eliminations were performed, and we were unfortunate enough that one or both eliminated players were a Doctor or Bodyguard. Either that, or any surviving Town player with a protective power made a poor judgement."

 

[Flyg0n]

Loaf paced, nose to the ground, sniffing for clues. There had to be answers, there had to be, this wasn't adding up. "So either the bad guys killed the 'lovers' (was that the word?) and got lucky, or... The bad guys got two types of killing." He sat down and eyed the crowd. One of them had done this. Somehow. And nobody tried to stop it. "Well, the good guys weren't paying any attention."

[[No I see what you mean, I'm just trying to figure out what happened... my first assumption this evening was lovers made most sense to me instead of SK or bad vig shot for N1. SK doesn't add up anymore to me since we don't have two kills again.

And I can't see the two kills as being an SK anymore, because it wouldn't make sense for an SK to not kill, right?

So either the vig theory is true and they held off killing smartly or I guess we have to assume the Strongman power was seperate from their regular kill?

Is strongman being seperate from the regular kill normal? is there actual precendence to think this is what happened? If that did happened it means chibi spent their strongman early which is... odd. Not impossible but it does feel weird.

Like basically there 's the two kills for scum theory, the vig/SK theory, or lovers.

With SK feeling less likely, its between lovers and double scum kill. I guess dual scum kill must make more sense than a negligent doctor. Because otherwise free would be alive.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

SK doesn't add up anymore to me since we don't have two kills again.

'Doesn't add up,' indeed. What nonsense. Whiskey's hand twitched in what seemed to be a tic of some kind.

"Or both the Serial Killer and the remaining Mafia both targeted Jean in the night!" he declared. "Or I was right about Odd Night Serial Killer, and they had no elimination action last night! Or they did target someone else, but they were protected by sheer chance!"

He raised a hand, suddenly alarmed.

"Ah. If the Serial Killer and the remaining Mafia did both target Jean in the night. It wouldn't matter if a Doctor protected her. She would be dead anyway."

He shook his head sadly. Then glowered at Loaf.

"It appears you don't want us to consider the possibility of a Serial Killer. The gravest assumption I can make as to why is that you are yourself said role. Perhaps I am wrong. But if not, I shall be glad to have voted for @Flyg0n."

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I'm sorry what? So apparently trying to speculate and eliminate possibilities is bad and means I'm sus now. Okay. Hm....

I'm concerned how Free was at least slightly suspicious of you before she died. If your sole onus for voting me is because I ispeculated that it doesn't seem likely there's an SK based on my understanding of events thats bizzare. considering free's last thing was sussing you I'll gladly vote for you.

In fact I'm not a fan at all of your behaviour, you talk as if you know more than you let on and get aggro about people making deductions.... you talk as if you know scum can do these things.

Also I didn't even know thats a thing, double killing. Do we even know thats the case in this game? So if SK and scum both target someone it overrides a doctor? How can I be sus for just throwing things out there when we don't even know for sure about the mechanics of the game?

Explain to me the logic of an SK killing N1 and not N2 if you think thats not the case. Unless maybe it is the odd night thing but thats not really common for a vanilla setup, at least afaik? or maybe it is, I've done a half a vanilla game I think.

vote: jackie/unrepentantauthor]]

 

[SparklingEspeon]

"Or both the Serial Killer and the remaining Mafia both targeted Jean in the night!" he declared. "Or I was right about Odd Night Serial Killer, and they had no elimination action last night! Or they did target someone else, but they were protected by sheer chance!"

"Yeah..." said Espurr suspiciously, perching on her stump. The absol-man was quite neurotic and twitchy, but he was speaking sense. "If I were a serial killer, I would have targeted the rolecop first - it's far by the largest threat. And if I couldn't kill on that day, the mafia simply would have taken them out for me. It's a win-win, and all I'd have to do to buy more time was make sure no-one thought I existed. At the very least, there's no sense at all in ruling it out... unless I didn't want people to think about it?"

[[

Jean blinked in confusion. "But normally a strongman just means they can kill someone even if they're being healed. It doesn't mean they get to kill a second person. And if it was separate, then why would she use it on the first night, when she had no idea who's important or who's going to get healed? I don't think she would've done that, not if she knows how the game works. And... and you said the same thing yourself before, so it's not like you didn't realize!"

I also want to bring this up as supporting evidence for the existence of an independent killing element - even if mafia had some kind of second kill lying around, a mafia with at least one (1) experienced player in it probably wouldn't blow that kill on night one with no info unless they thought they had to go scorched earth immediately, or gambled in hopes they'd hit a powerful player.]]

Explain to me the logic of an SK killing N1 and not N2 if you think thats not the case. Unless maybe it is the odd night thing but thats not really common for a vanilla setup, at least afaik? or maybe it is, I've done a half a vanilla game I think.

"If there is a serial killer," started Espurr, "then I'm partial to the odd night theory. Two guaranteed kills a night would end the game within three days, faster if there was a mislynch. But one kill alone would leave the mafia high and dry if we managed to pick one of them off early. If we assume town didn't also have night-killing powers, it doesn't seem like a very fair stackup to me either way, does it?"

I'm concerned how Free was at least slightly suspicious of you before she died

Whiskey - I don't like him, he's a Pokémorph but I don't! He and Stygian were always agreeing and saying good things about each other and he said some weird things, especially the thing about the strongman that's not the same as what he said before about the strongman. I have a really bad feeling! We don't have to talk about it now because we need to get rid of Stygian, and maybe I'm... Maybe he's okay and I'm wrong. But... but if I'm not going to be here for the next day in the game, I think you should be careful!

Whisky raised an eyebrow. "My assumpton would be that any Strongman role would modify the nightly Mafia elimination, not provide an additional, second action available from the first night."

He chuckled, a little nastily.

"Even if that were so, performing it on the first night would be a truly incompetent use of a powerful ability. They'd no longer be able to penetrate protective measures to eliminate a confirmed Cop player."

Whisky rubbed his chin thoughtfully.

"Since we now have confirmation that Stygian was a Strongman, it would appear that, contrary to my assumptions, the Mafia did indeed perform two eliminations on the first night. We may yet have a Vigilante, Lovers, and/or Serial Killer, but none were relevant to the eliminations performed so far."

[[We know that Jean was town, so that means Free's reads are genuine and not misleading. The reason I bring this back is because it's not very clear to me how the jump in logic from "strongman modifies the kill" to "we know there was a strongman, so mafia performed two kills" was made, and now we're back to "there was obviously an SK, and you're on the block for suggesting there couldn't be". Scum would have an interest in killing the SK, but scum would be equally okay, or more okay even, with letting a mislynch happen under the guise of "SK". For now, trying to dismiss the possibility of an SK is a bit more concerning to me, but this is also something to think on.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

"I'm not sure whether you're being deliberately deceptive, or you haven't been paying attention. 'Sole onus', indeed. I was already talking about voting for you today, yesterday."

Whiskey laughed darkly and shook his head.

"I don't believe it's worth the effort on my part to pick apart your poor reasoning and unsupported conclusions. Jean may no longer be with us, but surely there is someone incisive and rational still participating, who will go to the trouble of comparing us and coming to a sensible conclusion about which of us makes more sense."

[[Have a readlist, folks. Of note, I really like that last post by Espy. Feels Towny.]]

Flyg0n: Loaf [Dachsbun, Male] SUSPECTED SERIAL KILLER

Sinderella: Noel Massè [Human, Male] NULL, PENDING CLOSE READING

Starlight Aurate: Maressa [Human, Female] NULL, PENDING CLOSE READING

FauxFox: Theodore [Zorua, Male] NULL, NO SUBSTANTIAL POSTS TO CLOSE READ

SparklingEspeon: Espurr [Espurr, Female] SOFT TOWN

unrepentantAuthor: Whiskey [Absol Pokémorph, Male]
Seren: Kari [Human, Female] ELIMINATED—TOWN [N1]
windskull: Anti-Bravoman [Human...ish, Male] ELIMINATED—TOWN [N1]
Chibi Pika: Stygian [Absol,Female] ELIMINATED—MAFIA STRONGMAN [D1]
Dragonfree: Jean Ambrose [Vulpix Pokémorph, Female] ELIMINATED—TOWN ROLECOP [N2]

[[I'll eat crow if I'm tunnelling Tetra here. It wouldn't even be the first time that Town!Tetra and Town!Jackie have butted heads and tunnelled each other. But I am very sus of her right now, and there's nobody else I'm sus of except by what feels like inductive reasoning. I'm

The bitter-faced absol folded his arms and drummed his claws in a rhythmic pattern.

"There's one more thing. Have any of you asked yourselves why Jean was a Rolecop and not a Cop? Perhaps it's for the sake of balance – Cops can get lucky and shut down a Serial Killer immediately, but the same is not true of Rolecops."

[[From the Mafiascum wiki:]]

Vanilla players have role names that vary by faction; a Role Cop scanning these will get "Vanilla" as the response, again anonymising the win condition. Thus, a Mafia Goon or a Serial Killer should give the same result as a Vanilla Townie.

 

[Flyg0n]

"If there is a serial killer," started Espurr, "then I'm partial to the odd night theory. Two guaranteed kills a night would end the game within three days, faster if there was a mislynch. But one kill alone would leave the mafia high and dry if we managed to pick one of them off early. If we assume town didn't also have night-killing powers, it doesn't seem like a very fair stackup to me either way, does it?"

[[I had previously not really thought this to be a reasonable thing (mostly because I guess I had assumed that wouldn't be vanilla) but it actually does make sense. It would track that it would have to be odd or even SK... Maybe more than vig? I guess nothing is technically off the table though...

I still want to know more about this supposed SK + Scum targeting Free = breaking through a doctors healing because I've never heard of that mechanic before and its oddly specific and interesting to me... I'll have to google this myself]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Also if anyone finds anything to support this very specific bringing up of 'SK + mafia both targeting someone bypasses doctor/bodyguard' please let me know, I'm trying to search it now but not finding anything for it...]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Okay wait nvm I found it under the doctor listing... fascinating, I did not know this, good to know.

So maybe that is how free died, it would certainly be more likely now than a negligent town...]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

A Doctor protects players from being killed overnight. Each Doctor protection cancels out one kill.

[[From Mafiascum again. First line on the page. Pretty sure Doctor failure by this method has actually happened before in games Tetra has played in but I don't know where to go look for a specific example, so I can't be sure. And it was super relevant that two shots overcame Bulletproof protections in Humble Vale, under the same logic as this, and Tetra was in that.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[Already clarified mistake above. Genuinely just straight up did not remember, there's no agenda behind that lol. Goldfish memory]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[This evidence does make me much much more wary about there still being an SK. I was jumping the gun and eager that maybe we finally had concrete info from what transpired overnight but i overlooked some glaring holes in the logic bc of what I forgot. hecc. So we still have no proper guranteed theory yet as to the 2 N1 kills and 1 N2 kill...

I think i wanna more carefully read past posts... Maybe i missed something else...]]

 

[Starlight Aurate]

"There goes the possibility that we have an attentive Doctor or Bodyguard," he growled, bitterly. "Very well – we must assume that no protective role survives. And we can not safely assume that we have a living Cop, either. Jean's Rolecop power was very likely our entire Info Role apparatus. Hopefully some living Town have a useful power. Do try to keep quiet about it, yes?"

Maressa frowned. "You're making several assumptions, here. First, why do you say she was unprotected? We knew that Stygian had a strongman ability. These abilities can be transferred among Mafia party members when one dies, right? Once Stygian died, it's likely that the power was transferred and immediately used.

"You're also saying it's likely she was our only information role. What makes you say that? You also think we have no protective powers among us, but like I said--she was probably subject to a Strongman kill."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

These abilities can be transferred among Mafia party members when one dies, right?

[[Nope.]]

 

[Starlight Aurate]

[[oops I posted before I finished typing it out]]

Whiskey stared at the leavened canine. "Why are you so sure that the first two deaths were Lovers? We still have no evidence for that, and at least one other perfectly sensible and applicable explanation. Obviously they were not Lovers, and two eliminations were performed, and we were unfortunate enough that one or both eliminated players were a Doctor or Bodyguard. Either that, or any surviving Town player with a protective power made a poor judgement."

"Again, you're making assumptions. We can't say that we had no lovers, and that both of our protective roles died. I still think the Lovers theory holds plenty of water and that it's much more likely that the Strongman power was still alive among the Mafia. If two eliminations were performed, that meant that Stygian possibly had an extra kill in addition to her Strongman power. We could have a serial killer, sure, but I still think that's not likely in a 'game' this small," she said bitterly.

[[So either the vig theory is true and they held off killing smartly or I guess we have to assume the Strongman power was seperate from their regular kill?

Is strongman being seperate from the regular kill normal? is there actual precendence to think this is what happened? If that did happened it means chibi spent their strongman early which is... odd. Not impossible but it does feel weird.

Like basically there 's the two kills for scum theory, the vig/SK theory, or lovers.

With SK feeling less likely, its between lovers and double scum kill. I guess dual scum kill must make more sense than a negligent doctor. Because otherwise free would be alive.]

Maressa nodded and looked on the Loaf with approval. "Yes, I do think that the Strongman power gets transferred among party members, and that it must have gone through protecting Jean last night. I think it was a Strongman kill and a Lovers death that we're dealing with."

"It appears you don't want us to consider the possibility of a Serial Killer. The gravest assumption I can make as to why is that you are yourself said role. Perhaps I am wrong. But if not, I shall be glad to have voted for @Flyg0n."

"Okay, woah, hold up!" Maressa held her hands up and ran in between the Dachsbund and Absol-morph. "You're throwing the accusations now just because Loaf doesn't think the Serial Killer is the likely theory? I'm all for voting scummies out, but I don't think we've got a Serial Killer at work here, either."

I'm concerned how Free was at least slightly suspicious of you before she died. If your sole onus for voting me is because I ispeculated that it doesn't seem likely there's an SK based on my understanding of events thats bizzare. considering free's last thing was sussing you I'll gladly vote for you.

Maressa bent down and patted the Dachsbund while she eyed Whiskey warily. "I'm feeling the same way, Loaf." And it wasn't just because the sight of the Absol-morph was still off-putting to her.

"There's one more thing. Have any of you asked yourselves why Jean was a Rolecop and not a Cop? Perhaps it's for the sake of balance – Cops can get lucky and shut down a Serial Killer immediately, but the same is not true of Rolecops."

[[From the Mafiascum wiki:]]

Maressa tilted her head. "I'm not following your logic. Why wouldn't a Rolecop pick up on a Serial Killer? They can identify if someone is killing, can't they?"

[[We know that Jean was town, so that means Free's reads are genuine and not misleading. The reason I bring this back is because it's not very clear to me how the jump in logic from "strongman modifies the kill" to "we know there was a strongman, so mafia performed two kills" was made, and now we're back to "there was obviously an SK, and you're on the block for suggesting there couldn't be". Scum would have an interest in killing the SK, but scum would be equally okay, or more okay even, with letting a mislynch happen under the guise of "SK". For now, trying to dismiss the possibility of an SK is a bit more concerning to me, but this is also something to think on.]]

"I agree, Espurr. I don't agree with strongman being indicative of mafia performing two kills is logical* and believing we have a serial killer. I'm not saying we should completely dismiss the possibility of a Serial Killer. We just have to think of how it would affect our strategy of tracking them down."

Maressa paced back and forth, moving her hands as she spoke. "One Mafia is dead. If there's a Serial Killer, then that means we have two killers, each working independently. If there is no Serial Killer, then we have either one Mafia working alone or two working together. So, does this change how we track whether someone is trying to kill us?" She turned her golden eyes to the people and Pokemon looking at her. "This is an honest question. I'm not being sarcastic."

[[Okay wait nvm I found it under the doctor listing... fascinating, I did not know this, good to know.

So maybe that is how free died, it would certainly be more likely now than a negligent town...]]

Maressa nodded. "Then I guess we have a few possibilities:

1. There were two kills on the first night.
2. There was one kill on the first night, and the two deaths were Lovers.
3. There was a no one protecting Jean last night, either a negligent Doctor OR no Doctor at all
4. Someone tried to protect Jean last night, but it was a Strongman kill
5. Someone tried to protect Jean, but two people tried to kill her and one of the kills went through

"Hmm... IF it's the fifth, then we can rule out the possibility of odd-night Serial Killer, I think. But can we even confidently claim that?"

[[my bad from when I was confusing Strongman with Vigilante... oops]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Or at least, this would be the first I've heard of it. In some games, the factional kill transfers in this way, but that's between Goons, and it's specific to that power, and it's not true of all games. Also, if Strongman transfered, wouldn't that just mean the Scumteam could always ignore all protections forever? What would be the point of having Doctors? What on earth...??]]