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Seventh Anniversary Mafia

Persephone

Infinite Screms
Pronouns
her/hers
Partners
  1. mawile
  2. vulpix-alola
“Well, Morgan can’t be poisoned. The only scum options left are Elgyem or I. We’re both next to Rui, meaning she couldn’t be scum. If she wasn’t scum, she must have been drunk. If she was drunk, then Morgan can’t be. Morgan’s information must be correct. Well, barring the false positive. So… 11/12 chance that Morgan is correct. I’ll take those odds.”
 

Dragonfree

Moderator
Staff
Premium
Location
Iceland
Pronouns
she/her/hers
Partners
  1. butterfree
  2. mightyena
  3. charizard
  4. scyther-mia
  5. vulpix
  6. slugma
  7. chinchou
  8. misdreavus
  9. meowth
“Well, Morgan can’t be poisoned. The only scum options left are Elgyem or I. We’re both next to Rui, meaning she couldn’t be scum. If she wasn’t scum, she must have been drunk. If she was drunk, then Morgan can’t be. Morgan’s information must be correct. Well, barring the false positive. So… 11/12 chance that Morgan is correct. I’ll take those odds.”
"Technically Rui could've been poisoned the first night, and Morgan could be the Drunk. Everything still lines up that way. I think." Dave had a pounding headache at this point. What he wouldn't give for a fucking drink.

"But I'm not wildly inclined to assume that's what went on here. I still want to look back at Elgyem and Madeline's play again to be sure before placing a vote, seeing as I've only got the one."
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
Slowly, finally, Rocky began to stir, only to shoot upright with a startled hoot. "Apology apology apology, Rocky oversleep again."

Getting his bearings, Rocky peeked first at his own emera, and then at the shattered one belonging to the newcomer to the table. "~Oooh~ Rocky surprised! Thought for sure Rocky's gem would be broken, or maybe Morgan's. Instead, it yours! Big surprise!"

After a moment, he gave a thoughtful hum. "Mmm, Dave smart to wait. Ghost vote only count once. No change. Right now Morgan do big science, lots of words for simple explanation. Rocky want to ask: who else Morgan check last night, question?"

Rocky hummed again. "Elgyem give expected result. No poison with one Bad Guy left. Now, only need to decide if we trust Morgan science or Elgyem results. Rocky will consult diagram, too."

[[A little bit of a surprise for the player eliminated today. Like JFought, I also thought Morgan was a pretty obvious target to eliminate, given her power was guaranteed to be untampered (but not necessarily true b/c lmao Drunk).

Going to revisit some things before I cast a vote, because it's not Mafia if Pano isn't paranoid down to the last second.]]
 

Shiny Phantump

Through Dream, I Travel
Location
Hallownest
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. sylveon
  2. absol-mega
  3. silvally-psychic
  4. ninetales-phantump
  5. cosmog
  6. gallade-phantump
  7. ceruledge-phantump
  8. mismagius
who else Morgan check last night, question?
"Ah, it was you again, of course~ Same as last time I wanted to check one person!"

[[Apparently I've been wrong about the false positive being a random townsfolk, it's any random good. I have no idea where I got that in my head? So I've been overconfident until I checked a moment ago that it couldn't be you. However you actually being my false positive and us needing to switch to Maddie would require me to have received poison-flipped info on at least N1 and N3, and a 50/50 on needing to also be poisoned N0 if Maddie was only Imp by SW inheritance. That changes some of the odds math for edge cases but I still think Watt or Maddie being my false positive is the most likely explanation for my N0 results. I'd sooner suspect myself of being Drunk in which case my info is irrelevant anyway because there is no fortune teller in play.]]
 

HelloYellow17

Gym Leader
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
  3. mew
  4. lycanroc-wes
  5. leafeon-rui
Rui hummed thoughtfully. “I don’t think it’s that surprising that, uh…” She paused. She’d forgotten the Herdier’s name. Okay, in her defense, there was a lot going on. Names had kind of taken a backseat. She still felt bad about it, though.

She settled for gesturing at him with her tail. “I think it’s not surprising that you died last night! You were the most certainly town player. Doubt could still be cast on any of the other players left alive, but not so much you.”

She turned her focus back to the group. “I really hate not being certain who the last one is,” she admitted. “But I’ve gone over some things in my head.”

At one point, Rui had tried drawing out her thoughts in the dirt, but it turned out ghost paws were pretty useless drawing tools. Which was annoying. So she opted for the next best thing and started pacing in her spot.

“My Voice has said this several times, but I’ll say it again.” She jabbed a paw at Drake, whose name she did remember only because he’d been a relentless snob from the beginning. “You’re definitely scum.” In more ways than one. “There’s just no way you aren’t. And you’ve been very careful to never cast direct suspicion on Elgyem this whole time. Oh, you’ve tossed some half hearted suspicion in their direction a few times, but you’ve always tried to direct it away or bury it under lots of other observations. Yet you were more than happy to toss out Madeline or Morgan at any given point.”

Rui shook her head irritably. “But I still don’t know who the second scum is. I was so sure it was Malachai—” She glanced at him then quickly looked away from that intimidating gaze. Even as a ghost, he scared her a little. Okay, a lot. The mon was enormous and she was pretty sure he was setting off some kind of prey instinct in this Leafeon body. Sue her. “But after the Ravenkeeper thing…I don’t know. He was really certain the, uh, the ghost horse—horses?—would read his role accurately, and then they did. How could he have been so sure unless he actually was Ravenkeeper? The only other explanation is if he was the Spy, because that registers as good, but he still wouldn’t know what role the Undertaker would have read.” She stopped to frown at the grass like it was personally responsible for everything.

“But if the horses were evil, then Drake voting for them makes no sense. Unless it was some kind of a crazy reverse psychology thing? Which, if it was, I guess it kind of worked. But that’s a really risky move and he wouldn’t pull that stunt twice. He’d work hard to protect his other teammate no matter what.”

She turned around to face Elgyem. “And that comes back to you. After everything, you’re the only person left that he hasn’t been chomping at the bit to vote for. And like Morgan said, whoever the Poisoner was, they’re gone now. Unless Morgan is Drunk, her read on you is correct.”

She narrowed her eyes at Elgyem and lashed her tail, bristling with conviction. “I won’t use my vote. Not yet. But you’ll have to give me a very, very good reason not to use it on you before today is over.”
 

windskull

Bidoof Fan
Staff
Partners
  1. sneasel-nip
  2. bidoof
  3. absol
  4. kirlia
  5. windskull-bidoof
  6. little-guy-windskull
  7. purugly
  8. mawile
  9. manectric
  10. zoroark-hisui
  11. wind-ramb
[[Not feeling well so I'm going to wait to cast my vote or do a deeper read, but at this point I feel like it's a matter of deciding who we trust more out of Perse and Aer. Given that the only scum left is the demon, Phant logically cannot be the demon. If Phant were the demon, Perse has to be town and would have killed with the slayer role. Right now I'm leaning more towards Aer given Phant is townlocked at this point, but Phant HAS gotten redchecks on both.]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
"Ah, it was you again, of course~ Same as last time I wanted to check one person!"

[[Apparently I've been wrong about the false positive being a random townsfolk, it's any random good. I have no idea where I got that in my head? So I've been overconfident until I checked a moment ago that it couldn't be you. However you actually being my false positive and us needing to switch to Maddie would require me to have received poison-flipped info on at least N1 and N3, and a 50/50 on needing to also be poisoned N0 if Maddie was only Imp by SW inheritance. That changes some of the odds math for edge cases but I still think Watt or Maddie being my false positive is the most likely explanation for my N0 results. I'd sooner suspect myself of being Drunk in which case my info is irrelevant anyway because there is no fortune teller in play.]]
"Amaze amaze amaze! Smart. Good science from Morgan. Rocky glad to help."

[[I was gonna write up a whole post about how I *think* I've gotten to the Most Likely scenario in terms of trusting information, but then on a re-read of my last scenario, I thought of another variable I hadn't accounted for yet and... lol it's a mess. At least I'm *reasonably* sure you're not Drunk. In that case, Perse would have to be the Demon, and the math ain't mathing for her to be, given how many times aer was left untampered to get an Evil read on Perse...

Will sleep on it and go over the scenarios again before casting a vote, though (if you could see this damn spreadsheet lmao)]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[Not feeling well so I'm going to wait to cast my vote or do a deeper read, but at this point I feel like it's a matter of deciding who we trust more out of Perse and Aer. Given that the only scum left is the demon, Phant logically cannot be the demon. If Phant were the demon, Perse has to be town and would have killed with the slayer role. Right now I'm leaning more towards Aer given Phant is townlocked at this point, but Phant HAS gotten redchecks on both.]]
[[As far as I can tell, annoyingly, there is another option that Perse could be our Drunk... It all hinges on a very specific set of things happening (like Yellow being Poisoned N0 on a blind shot by the scumteam), but it's not impossible.]]
 

unrepentantAuthor

A cat that writes stories.
Location
UK
Pronouns
they/she
Partners
  1. purrloin-salem
  2. sneasel-dusk
  3. luz-companion
  4. brisa-companion
  5. meowth-laura
  6. delphox-jesse
  7. mewtwo
  8. zeraora
[[I have a contribution to share that occurred to me like two night phases ago but the heatwave fried outta me. Which is this:]]

[[Also I voted Rui D1 because I thought she was scum because her intel got Watt killed. Which might be because Watt was evil? ... but, no, that couldn't have happened, because Watt has to be innocent because Watt was killed by the Virgin, a sure sign of Virginity I mean Innocence. So then Phan had to have got an evil result for Mimikyu, or was poisoned, or was drunk, or was lying. But if Phan was drunk, then Rui couldn't have been. But if Rui is drunk, then Phan had to be poisoned. Or lying. But there's probably no spy, which would mean that Elgyem wasn't poisoned N0, because then Hareta and Rui wouldn't have been innocent.]]

[[I don't know that I can make any kind of truly solid case that this babbling is definitely scummy, especially as many of aer's other Elgyem posts have seemed really towny to me, but this specific post struck me the other day as just being complete waffle. It's stream of consciousness that the brain slides right off and gives the impression of contributing while not actually really doing so. I try to look for what we sometimes call 'mashed potato' posts, and we've not had much of that this game, but this is close to that, I think? I don't really know, I'm really just looking for information to make me feel more confident in trusting Morgan's redcheck.]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
Rocky has been furiously scribbling more notes in the dirt. Some still looked to be in progress, but he seemed to regard one equation in particular with confidence.

"Rocky been looking at simplifying game. Right now, 4 players left. 1 Bad Guy. Rocky not Bad guy, so really only 3 players left. 1 Bad Guy."

"Out of 3 players, 1 lying. That means, from their perspective, they are not Bad Guy (or lying,) so a 50% chance one of remaining two gets their vote. Rocky like 50% odds better."

He stomped the ground.

"Rocky walk through game events three times, assuming one of the remaining three players is lying each time through. Follow the events, try to figure out behavior based on lying person."

"Only 3 players left, only 3 scenarios to check for 1 liar."

"Rocky think scenario where Madeline is liar is unlikely. Would mean Morgan has to be Drunk. Morgan read Elgyem as Demon last night, no poison to interfere. This mean Spectrier was liar, and Rui was Poisoned N0. Not impossible, but Rocky also see if Madeline is liar, Bad Guys left Elgyem alone too many times. Not good protection by Bad Guys for themselves. Stupid, dumb."

"That mean only Morgan or Elgyem could be the liar! Rocky check them next."

[[Very likely this chart makes no sense to anyone who isn't me, but like any good engineer, I'll show my work.

2016.png
]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[I also realize that bastard information makes nothing airtight (lmao) so I'm very open to peer review on this.]]
 
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