Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[HelloYellow17]

But I must also stress that it's not like there's a single approved playstyle and you need to play that exact way to not look like scum.

[[Once again I really appreciate you answering my questions and outlining your thoughts for me, it’s so helpful for my sanity! 😂 It’s a good learning opportunity for me too. You’re right that there’s no one way to play, but I can always learn better ways for future games.

@ everyone else, I’m going to be busy the rest of the night and probably the rest of the day phase. At this point, I think it might be best to abstain rather than vote out Persephone. It’s probably too late in the day phase to pressure anyone else (how convenient for scum!) so I’d rather we play it safe. Just something to consider!]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

So, for now, I’m speculating a potential scum team of Drake, Malachai, and (very very tentatively) Morgan.

“I believe you’ve left something unconsidered in attributing evil to two out of three unclaimed character. You are, however unintentionally, attributing the failed kill to the dog. If he’s the soldier, and believes himself to have been targeted by evil for his experience, he should have contradicted my theory by claiming it long ago: The evils would already know it, and it’d put a massive puncture wound in my argument. One large enough that, frankly, a hypothetical evil version of me would have known better than to posit it in the first place out of fear of that exact counterclaim. You could also argue he’s the monk and just didn’t target anyone who’d make my hypothesis plausible, but it still looks odd both that he didn’t protect our clear info role and that this knowledge didn’t result in him visibly believing in anything. Instead there’s been a bunch of helpful reminders about ever possible confusing gamestate, very little effort put into narrowing the possibilities to anything not logically required for him to be town, including claiming things that would continue to confuse the gamestate even if I’m proven innocent later, particularly that Maddie and I can somehow both be innocent. Every reminder and suggestion in a vacuum has been seemingly helpful and incontrovertibly plausible, but the net force of that behaviour is uncertainty and confusion. It leaves a foul taste in my mouth.”

She shrugged, trying to look nonchalant even though openly positing what she currently beloved felt dangerous.

“Frankly, I believe you’ve accused our monk of being evil. It could be either of the rat or the Noivern, I’m not sure, but I favour the Noivern of the two.”

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Historically, both Jackie and Tetra are usually way more aggressive town players. They’re often vocally in favor of voting someone out at random on D1. They are rarely absent from EoD shenanigans,

[[I don't think this is true, and I would like to explain why.

I'm not always more aggressive than this, and when I am, I get shouted down by more cautious players. I have had low-key games as town. Usually I play more low-key when I'm the cop!

Tetra's never been in favour of random D0 lynches that I can recall. She usually is one of my strongest opponents on that point, given that I am generally in favour of D0 random eliminations. However, we didn't have a D0 this game.

As we got multiple trains going easily on D1, I didn't need to argue firmly for a D1 elimination, because it was going to happen whether I supported it or not. I usually have to argue for elimination because we have much less info in Daystart games. This was a Nightstart game, however.

Once again, the EoD shenanigans happened up to about 5am my time. I am not going to stay up later than 1 AM, so I am simply going to be absent every EoD this game. Please don't take this to mean anything about my alignment. I also wasn't part of the train on you EoD1, and you suggested that scum were on that train, so by that reasoning I am probably not scum.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

[[*currently believed. Not beloved. Fear not there are no lovers in this game.

Anyway, the crux of my argument is this: If the Flygon/uA scumteam hypothesis is to hold up to scrutiny, Free’s only viable claims are Soldier or Monk. I also believe the window for her to claim Soldier probably closed sometime yesterday. I believe the window for her to claim Monk is doing the same as Tetra/uA becomes by far the most likely component of any scumteam that doesn’t include her, suggesting that scum already knows what the last townie is and therefore we should just do a massclaim. (Which I don’t think we should— my initial apprehension to talk about this was concern that it would lead to me accidentally forcing a massclaim and removing the Tetra/uA monk ambiguity.)]]

 

[Dragonfree]

I believe the window for her to claim Monk is doing the same as Tetra/uA becomes by far the most likely component of any scumteam that doesn’t include her

"For the love of fuck. Yes, I'm the fucking monk, and I protected Odette, because of your helpful fucking analysis about how it's actually often better for scum to kill ironclad confirmed innocents and poison inforoles instead. Fucking--"

You could also argue he’s the monk and just didn’t target anyone who’d make my hypothesis plausible, but it still looks odd both that he didn’t protect our clear info role and that this knowledge didn’t result in him visibly believing in anything.

"It resulted in me visibly believing that the mafia was pretty likely to have poisoned and not tried to nightkill Elgyem, and thus probably not have poisoned you and left Elgyem alone. Like I've been going the fuck on about all day, but shut up about when I realized you were assuming they'd tried to nightkill Elgyem and the reason I hadn't considered that was I knew they hadn't. Fuck!

"And yeah, I was considering claiming earlier because it's practically got to be Drake and Malachai and they probably knew it's me, but maybe there was a tiny fucking chance it was somebody else. But here you are insisting the window to claim it is closing and that it didn't result in me visibly believing in anything FUCK OFF. So fine. It's me."

 

[Flyg0n]

Historically, both Jackie and Tetra are usually way more aggressive town players. They’re often vocally in favor of voting someone out at random on D1.

[[I'm sorry what? That's literally just not true? I've always always been deepely vocally against random lynching!! Jackie loves random lynching/day 1 lynches!

Activity is not good evidence of guilt or lack of it. Sure sometimes scum can be looking to coast but its' just genuinely been bad timing irl and the worst timezone because the last 6 hours or so of any day fall in the middle of the night (4am) and I didn't even get home until late evening on Saturday and Sunday mornings are usually always busy. I actually posted every single time indicating this that I'd be away, either on discord or here.

Anyways I'm here now. And to answer the reference about aggro and D1 I was plenty Aggro early when we had the kerfuffle, I just missed EOD because its. y know. 4am. I waffled a lot then only changed to vote you because I changed my opinion on the likelihood.

At any rate, I've been thinking a lot about this whole situation. I completely misunderstood Phan's claim. Okay so if I understand phans claim and test right it doesn't actually mean perse is guilty, does it? What it actually means is that she was definitively a poison target on one of the nights.

Either N0 or N1 she was poisoned, which means we can eliminate other possible poison suspects.

So maybe Phan got unluckily hit night 1 and we have to entertain the possibility of wind being hit night 0, since we don't have any other contradictory Info, and if we assume a high probability of Rui being the Drunk (not Phan as Phan feared.)

This *might* absolve Perse actually if night 0 was correct and night 1 wrong? The aftermath of Perse's flailing does feel town-ish.

But it still means that probability says Perse could be demon and we can't take the risk. If she's not I think this puts us in a good position tomorrow because then obviously we can make some good deductions based on the seating arrangements.

I know everyone is worried about the math/ghost votes but I have to remind everyone its not completely over still. There's other ways to win.

But we can't ignore the results of Phans play beause if there's even a small chance her test holds water we win the game. Its least blind and most informed.

Anyways now I am beginning to lean towards the small chance of Poisoned Wind, which could change things?

"Elgyem wouldn't have had to be poisoned for Rui to be Drunk. The Drunk is good-aligned, so the Empath would've detected her as good either way, no poisoning needed."

"Note Morgan's actual claimed results were, night zero, that the Demon was one of Watt and Madeline, and night one, that the Demon was not either of Rocky and Madeline. She thinks Madeline is the Demon despite her N1 result, because she thinks she was poisoned specifically last night. If you don't think Morgan is Drunk or was poisoned specifically last night, then Morgan's result clears Madeline of being the Demon. I think she was not nearly clear enough about this."

"If Spectrier was poisoned, then that'd mean Morgan wasn't poisoned, which means Madeline is not the Demon. Again, just getting this clear. Morgan's scenario hinges on specifically her having been poisoned specifically last night and not on night zero. Which might be what happened, but please be clear on this when you propose other people were poisoned last night. I'm not really worried about Spectrier getting poisoned last night. He might be evil but poisoning's a long shot. Either way Drunk Rui seems pretty easy to buy."

Yeah I fundamentally was very confused and misunderstood Phan's claim.

Is it possible then Phan was actually poisoned both nights and the info is entirely false? Or even Poisoned N1, because then perse is definitely not guilty.

@Shiny Phantump Can you... explain your logic again about this claim? I think I lost the plot along the way

 

[Flyg0n]

[[oh my GOSH just saw Free's post]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[I suddenly don't like this situation, smells fishy as ever.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

“Frankly, I believe you’ve accused our monk of being evil. It could be either of the rat or the Noivern, I’m not sure, but I favour the Noivern of the two.”

Yes, I'm the fucking monk

[[Unfortunately, I'm not the Monk, so I can't discredit Free's claim, here. If nobody pipes up and admits to being Soldier or Monk then that's as good as confirmation that Free is the monk, which is dreadful because I really have started to believe she's scum. I'm not the Soldier, either. I don't like this at all. Goddamnit.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[If Aer got poisoned on the second night and Phan on the first, that seems probable too?

And.... Dave might be our Monk or its Dave/Malachai as at least two scum with the Monk role and the reason nobody died is because with a Monk fakeclaim abstaining from killing can justify the existence of a Monk?? Unless the kill was redirected?]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[But frankly Now I'm beginning to doubt everything and want to take a second to actually reread all of this]]

 

[windskull]

[[Man if I was poisoned fuck me I guess lmao]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[That would be insane bad luk if our chef was poisoned and our investigator drunk lLOOOLL]]

 

[aer]

... Well, uh, I was thinking about making a post earlier about how the monk shouldn't claim because we were doing pretty good on the 3 investigative claims we had already (empath/fortune-teller/undertaker), so the monk could have protected one of us tonight, but, uh... it was nice knowing you, Dave? I can't see you surviving tonight because the monk can't protect themself like a doctor, so it's a free kill for the mafia.

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

a Monk fakeclaim abstaining from killing can justify the existence of a Monk?

[[We did speculate a little about the possibility that the scumteam deliberately abstained from murder on N1 for some reason, such as to successfully fakeclaim Monk/Doctor or Soldier/Bulletproof. But that would be so fucking weird, if it's even allowed. I can't imagine not killing on N1, personally.]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[[If this was scum Phan deliberately trying to fish the claim out of me by being sufficiently infuriating, then congratulations on some extremely devious scumplay. (I'm not mad mad, though, please don't take Dave's expletives the wrong way. Just admitting I had meant to shut up and see what happened in the night, and then Phan was just being too Wrong on the Internet. Kind of regretting it, because I was also thinking maybe they'd hesitate to actually kill me when that would confirm me as town and I was getting to be one of the easiest miselimination targets. Who knows, maybe they'll still hesitate to kill me and keep trying to push me being mafia with a monk fakeclaim I guess, which'd be great because then I can keep protecting people.)]]

To be clear, my vote is still on Madeline at the moment, because my evidence is still circumstantial and Madeline is still a player with two redchecks on her and I'm not actually sure who else would be the third scumteam member (I've begun to entertain the thought that maybe there isn't a third scumteam member?) and I'd feel like the world's biggest clown if I singlehandedly persuaded everyone to back off a player with two separate redchecks and then it turned out she was the actual Demon after all. But. All cards on the table, the mafia almost certainly targeted Odette with the nightkill last night, which means if they really did poison Morgan last night, that means they chose to ignore Elgyem, and that sounds a bit funny to me. (In fact, if that's what happened, it sounds like Elgyem might be scum?) If Morgan wasn't poisoned last night, then her result means Madeline is not the Demon. But she could still be a minion.)]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

Rocky turned to Dave. "Mm, no understand word. What is 'fuck', question?" Two taps

[[sorry I couldn't resist. Been out all day, back in time for EoD shitfuckery, reading and will add thoughts in a minute b/c I have thoughts.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[If nobody's going to claim Monk/Soldier then we have to believe one of two things is true: either Free is Town, or we have neither Soldier nor Monk and the scumteam passed up an opportunity to kill somebody just to give Free credibility.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

"Only people to counter claim would be you [Malachai] or Drake. Everyone else already make claim or fake claim. Not many roles left to claim from, unless fake claimers are pulling from list NOT provided by GM."

All cards on the table, the mafia almost certainly targeted Odette with the nightkill last night

"What make Dave say that, question?" Two more taps.

 

[aer]

[[People were talking about who to suspect and I was like uhhhh idk I was hoping for another night and then we can get a second round of investigation results.]]

All cards on the table, the mafia almost certainly targeted Odette with the nightkill last night, which means if they really did poison Morgan last night, that means they chose to ignore Elgyem, and that sounds a bit funny to me.

I was actually really curious about this too - was I poisoned last night which would mean that Madeline might be innocent? Was I not and Hareta is holding out as mafia on us? Something else? I was going to guess what happened based on which people figured out I was softclaiming yesterday - so Morgan, Rocky, and (maybe) Dave? There were definitely people who had no idea what was going on, so if I was ignored I'd think the Mafia were the people who didn't know.