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Seventh Anniversary Mafia

Persephone

Infinite Screms
Pronouns
her/hers
Partners
  1. mawile
  2. vulpix-alola
“Well. Here goes nothing. My thought is that Elgyem could theoretically just have been poisoned and doing weird stuff. Morgan coming in after and offering confirmation seems more likely scum behavior, if one of them were to be. And at least one almost certainly is since I’m innocent. Theoretically, I could be Morgan’s false positive and Elgyem could have been poisoned. Which would be so funny that I wouldn’t even be mad. But, for now, locking in.”

Go for broke!

Kill Morgan @Inkedust
 

unrepentantAuthor

A cat that writes stories.
Location
UK
Pronouns
they/she
Partners
  1. purrloin-salem
  2. sneasel-dusk
  3. luz-companion
  4. brisa-companion
  5. meowth-laura
  6. delphox-jesse
  7. mewtwo
  8. zeraora
I was not worthy for this game, [...] I'll HEAVILY consider resigning.

Malachai frowned at the Squirtle and shook his head slowly.

"Have some fighting spirit, boy," he growled, gently. "You may be daunted by the task at hand, but the battle isn't over. Lift your chin! Be strong! Do not give up when the challenge scares you. Keep fighting for a win, boy!"

[[Seriously, don't throw in the towel. It'll be fine. You'll be fine. Don't worry.]]

Actually, looking at this now, are we *sure* there are no duplicate roles in this game? Kinda crazy that we can just out the Demon and end the game. Would there be multiple Demons in play? Again bonkers to think the Drunk role would be the one with Scarlet Woman, who would inherit. Is there any way the Scarlet Woman *IS* in play but we just wouldn't get a role to confirm it? There's nothing saying we NEED an Investigator IF a Scarlet Woman is in play. Both can be true: no Investigator AND Scarlet Woman exists...

"I am quite certain that there are no duplicates, and that we can readily expect the Scarlet Woman to inherit the role of Imp. There cannot be multiple Demons, and the Drunk cannot also be Scarlet Woman. I expect someone with a yet-unresolved identity will merit our attention shortly. Perhaps the rat, or the dog..."
 

Inkedust

Harbinger of Sunrise
Location
Pokémon Square
Pronouns
she/her
Partners
  1. ninetales-inkedust
  2. solgaleo-inkedust
  3. xerneas
  4. zoroark-inkedust
  5. zoroark
  6. absol
“Well. Here goes nothing. My thought is that Elgyem could theoretically just have been poisoned and doing weird stuff. Morgan coming in after and offering confirmation seems more likely scum behavior, if one of them were to be. And at least one almost certainly is since I’m innocent. Theoretically, I could be Morgan’s false positive and Elgyem could have been poisoned. Which would be so funny that I wouldn’t even be mad. But, for now, locking in.”

Go for broke!

Kill Morgan @Inkedust

...But nothing happened.
 

Persephone

Infinite Screms
Pronouns
her/hers
Partners
  1. mawile
  2. vulpix-alola
An unearthly scream likely covering several expletives echoes across the room. It eventually settles into something almost coherent.

Theonegamei’mnotevenscumthishappenswhywhywhywhywhy…

“Ahem. Well, it has been an honor playing with you tonight, gentlemen. I look forward to our lovely undertaker proving my innocence in the morning.”
 

aer

Bug feeder
Pronouns
they/them
Worried.png
Elgyem watched the (nonexistent?) stake phase right through the ghost's body. Was the ghost transparent or was it the stake? She couldn't tell. But still she felt a lingering sense of unease. The other option for staking would have been her, of course, and it's not like she wanted to have a piece of wood rammed through her chest, even as immaterial as words it would've been, akin to a somewhat more bombastic upgrade to an accusatory vote, but something about the action was weirdly unnerving even if she wasn't the one picked. There was a feeling like, what if we got it all wrong? Were the true culprits even on the table?
Worried.png
Even so, she couldn't argue with logical strategy, despite competing emotions. She supposed she could change her vote after the fiasco with the accused detective but there were unsureities that would be resolved by tomorrow with the current course of action, if not by this very night. So she stayed her hand.
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
But I would've expected the mafia to poison Elgyem over Morgan last night, which is why it seems so fucking convoluted to me to decide Morgan getting poisoned is absolutely definitely what happened because they definitely picked up on the softclaim and definitely decided Morgan was more dangerous.
"Morgan already answer, but Rocky agree that possible explanation is that Elgyem was nightkill target. Kill target with more obvious softclaim, poison other target instead. Monk stay quiet, chose well. Explanation clean, but leaky. Imperfect. But this game about being imperfect. Hard to build perfect solution with incomplete data."

Dave squinted at Morgan... and then sighed. "Okay, I can see it. I still think it's a whole lot more uncertain than you made it out to be, but fine. We don't have a better lead than Madeline at the moment,
"Rocky think we do!"

A few more scratches in the dirt, and a louder grinding sound. A proclamation. "Rocky run some numbers! Based on Watt claim information, and if no players are currently lying about their powers, there are only 3 possible remaining players who could be Evil: Dave, Drake, and Malachai. Of these three, two cannot be Evil together: Dave and Drake, because they sit next to each other."

Rule: two Evil players cannot be seated next to each other
Confirmed Good: Odette (Virgin), Watt (Chef*), Rui (Drunk), Rocky (that me!)
Self-proclaimed Good: Hareta (Washerwoman), Elgyem (Empath), Spectrier (Undertaker), Morgan (Fortune-Teller)




This falls apart if:
- Watt was the Spy
- any of the Self-Proclaimed players are lying
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[OH FFS WHY DID THAT HIT POST.... There's supposed to be a visual aid with that. gimme a sec, I tried to "tab" to make a bullet list and it tabbed to "Post Reply" button and did that when I hit enter... Anyway, one second, will post visual aid below]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
1778982245459.png

Rocky had scrawled a loose diagram of the seating arrangement, using different textures (ie colors) to write either a G for Good or E for Evil, leaving three pictures blank of players who had not indicated any sort of alignment in their posts.

Pink = Outsider
Green = Mechanically confirmed Town
Yellow = Self-proclaimed Town (without mechanical confirmation)
Red = Evil* (*per self-proclaimed mechanics, so NOT mechanically confirmed)

Rocky stepped back so the others could see, grunting to himself. "Rocky know that fishing for information not necessarily good for Town, because bad guys can also hear information. But Rocky wonder if it is time go fishing on these three--" he tapped at the places for Dave, Drake, and Malachai.

Chirping excitedly, he continued, "Rocky want you three to help catch the lies! Reel in the big catch! So far Drake has been quiet. Dave has been good friend, but has not offered suspects of his own. Is this because he already knows who is on his team and who is not, question? And Malachai has been helpful, lots of good charts and graphs. Good observations, too, but also no offers of where else to look."

"Rocky does not want to point, but numbers do not lie. So help the numbers and find lying people, instead."

[[Alright, lots of Rocky speak in this, but the diagram I think is helpful. I realize that all of this is dependent on taking everything everyone has claimed at face value, which *is* a dangerous thing to do in a game about lying. HOWEVER, I think by establishing this, it will help to focus the second half of the day into asking the right questions in narrowing down who we think is also suspect. I would like to hear from Dave, Drake, and Malachai specifically about who or where we should be looking. Because otherwise we're left looking at you.

This is a challenge, not an accusation.]]
 

Panoramic_Vacuum

Hoenn around
Partners
  1. aggron
  2. lairon
[[TL;DR I find the play of these three to not have been bad or sus at face value, but very passive, which I have found to be the easiest way to play when you have the private knowledge that the scum team has.

I will be doing a re-read of their posts after coming to this conclusion (via the diagram). And I know Tetra has been busy IRL. I just think it is worth a closer look at these three as things stand today with the information we have.]]
 

Chibi Pika

Stay positive
Staff
Premium
Location
somewhere in spacetime
Pronouns
they/them
Partners
  1. pikachu-chibi
  2. lugia
  3. palkia
  4. lucario-shiny
  5. incineroar-starr
  6. grovyle-ralsen
"Rocky run some numbers! Based on Watt claim information, and if no players are currently lying about their powers, there are only 3 possible remaining players who could be Evil: Dave, Drake, and Malachai. Of these three, two cannot be Evil together: Dave and Drake, because they sit next to each other."
Normal.png
Glastrier tapped its hoof. "Boldore is correct. I believe it is impossible for all three of them to be innocent, and equally impossible for Mightyena and Rattata to be collaborating, unless the Plusle were poisoned on the zeroth night. But, I find that unlikely at this point."

"Do not forget that no one died last night. This is almost certainly because one of those three is the 'monk' or the 'soldier.' But why would the enemy have aimed at one of those three when there were two targets hinting at valuable powers, and two targets guaranteed innocent? I propose we have a monk, and not a soldier. The enemy no doubt already knows this, as they know who they targeted. The monk may wish to stay concealed another night, but once they do come forward, I believe they are guaranteed to be innocent, unless the enemy intentionally refrained from killing." The ice horse shook its head, as if finding the notion absurd.

It glanced at the cloth-ghost that had been cornered by Mismagius and Elgyem. No sense waiting any longer.

Vote: Madeline
 

Flyg0n

Flygon connoisseur
Premium
Pronouns
She/her
Partners
  1. flygon
  2. swampert
  3. ho-oh
  4. crobat
  5. orbeetle-shiny
  6. joltik
  7. salandit
  8. tyrantrum
  9. porygon
  10. giratina-origin
  11. houndoom
  12. charcadet-shiny
[[jeeez lousie the one FREAKIN saturday I'm doing something has to fall on the day of mafia ugh. 1 billion things happen. First of all, uh WHAT, okay, guess we have an empath?? I was actually freakin mad for a hot second as I was trying to read bits and pieces throughout the day but I think this works out better than we think for us. And I guess scum hit a solider or our doctor guessed right. I do have some other theories rattling around that might explain this oddness.

There's so much to unpack but there's literally been like 4 pages so I don't think I have time or energy to hit everything. Also my head hurts trying to digest all of this oh my gosh.

Fwiw @HelloYellow17 I want to assure that even with the consideration of how votes work its not all bad. You did fine and there's not much to do given the situation. For now I see where Free was coming from in her vote and I think the logic lines up because it wasn't galaxy brained. The situation actually did give us intel too. So you did fine < 3. Even with the risk of how votes work I think we can still do something.

I saw Free answered some of the queries so I hope that helped. If it helps my reasoning for starting/joining the vote for you was because as fr as I could reason that day there was at first only a 33% chance of you being scum, but after realizing this was standard play as Free said, I felt that even if you were drunk the info we'd get from voting you out meant we'd get something. You had already shared intel and wether that was drunk, poisoned or fake intel, it was safer and had at least a partial chance of hitting scum. We wouldn't be accidentally hitting a power role!

Sadly in hindsight right now it sounds like you were drunk and Aer thought they could be drunk/poisoned but it makes at least some sense for Town!Aer to doubt themselves.

((Uhm can a Drunk activate Virgin???))
As an aside @Zdrmonster you did great, honestly it was a wild play but hindsight is clarity and also it gained a ton of vluable intel and got things moving, it was fun! Things always go wild in these games < 3

Let's see we have. Three claims. Aer, Phan & Chibi.

I will break here to note that I just read Pano's posts halfway through writing my own. It really is sucky timing that I couldn't be around more. Basically didn't even get home until an hour or two ago and then am trying to reread all the posts. I see your logic though, its a good angle, even though I think we have to be careful about face value.

First off - do we have Spy? My verdict is... maybe. Because while it is technically reasonable to conclude that the lack of nightkill means a lack of spy, it seems worth at least keeping in the back pocket that if they did have a spy, wouldn't they try to control the game by not nightkilling? Make us think they don't have one?? My takeaway is we shouldn't be too hasty to gurantee anything in a game with Poison and Drunk.

Onto the claims I guess.

Aer claims Empath. (N0: Rui/Hareta both innocent; N1: Madeline/Hareta (1)) I've been pingponging like crazy ever since. Was Rui poisoned by sheer luck and Aer correct? Aer poisoned and Rui drunk? In both these scenarios we have to be careful to fully trust Aer. I'm leaning town because the logic seems to add up for me. But I don't know I trust info. We know for a fact There's a drunk. There's too much conflicting intel and the only gurantee we really have is probably Wind (afaik) and Sind.

Let's think about scum!aer for a second. Scum have fake claims so there's a chance as with any town hardclaim that its fake. And it would be both terrifying and powerful to control the game by using empath powers! Also conveniently easy to claim day 2 and essentially pick whoever. Frankly my immediate jump was to sus like perse beause its just so easy of claim imo, much the way I leaned it being easy for Rui to fakeclaim investigator.

But Aer voted Rui and that seems a silly scumplay (I dont mean you're stupid, sorry aer, just that its not got any reason unless you dont know who is drunk, otherwise you don't need to join a train? I believe that well enough.

Phantumps claims clairvoyant, claims Perse is the demon. Because at first I was entirely skeptical, if scumteam did have that in their fakeclaims, they could have plotted to insinuate anything given they have the priviledged info and would know there's no clairvoyants. they could boldly say almost anything they want. And since there's no role reveal upon death we wouldn't know that they 'picked wrong'. I mean it would be good scumplay to hint a little (after all a scum doesnt fear death) and then claim? . And the whole bit about 'testing' their reads to see if they weren't drunk. I mean add some uncertinty and frinedly testing and bam! townie.

I did end up rereading D0 though and it doesn't feel like scum theatre (but then again good scum theatre doesn't). But I find that under scrutiny, its too bold. I think what makes it feel most plausible is the consistency and the target; I guess I don't see this kind of elaborate thing to come up? It would be ...risky?

The other option is that Phan was poisoned? On the tiny obscure chance Phan was poisoned on either night (instead of Rui, this assumes Rui is Drunk and not flailing minion or Poisoned) its hard to say. If Scum picked up on any hints it would make sense to target a perceived power role like Aer or Phan?

Chibi claims undertaker. Chibi says Rui is innocent. What bugs me here is we don't actually know that this clears Rui if Chibi was poisoned? But obviously only two out of all the results we got were poisoned. If Chibi is poisoned here, it means that at the very least, the Rui bit is bad intel and Phant and Aer are correct, assuming that isn't some S+ tier scum theatre between the two of them (we're ultracooked if we don't have a real a Empath or Clairvoyant what the frick).

But if Chibi did see truthfully this does clear up the whole kerfuffle and explain all the confusion as just genuine confusion not anyone playing anything. Town!Chibi lines up with trying to play it cool day 1 to survive long enough to use a power. But then... scum chibi could just as easily play the same? I mean I think historically scum chibi is very secretive or smth...


Fourth claim is Slayer Perse. Look we can't all be telling the truth augh. This one rings weakest to me? We have to always acknowledge the possibility its either town or scum fakeclaim. What I dont like about this is that it felt hasty and improperly thought. Too easy, since you would want to pretend to spend it, but Phan just doesn't seem like a good target if you're town? There was too much hard town. On the other hand if Perse is Town this absolves Phan.

However, I feel decently sure of Phan being town even if not the intel. "Pretending" to Slay someone would be a good scumplay maybe from scrambling scum after being confidently outed, whereas for townplay its a little harder to buy?

For sanity's sake my brain rambling is going under a spoiler to hit the brass tacks.

Only thing I feel certain of its nothing is certain. But based on todays actions...

I think Rui was Drunk, and Aer or Phan was poisoned N0 (awful luck bad bad bad) and Phan or Chibi was Poisoned N1 on a lucky guess.

regardless, that leaves only one between our possible Empath/Clairvoyant poisoned. (Unless one of them is Drunk and Rui was poisoned).

However, based on the odds I am going to say that our safest pick is still Madeline. Even if they are Slayer, their power is gone. They're either flailing Demon and we can win, or town and we still have their vote. I'll vote them, on the off chance the odds are in our favor. I think there's another way we can still win anyway though.

Something else is bothering me though. Several things and thoughts, but more for tomorrow because we can't ignore the odds lining up that we found the demon. And I feel fine taking the risk.


  • Drunk Chef? oh thank frick okay this cant happen
  • Dave, seemingly being confident about Watt yesterday (as opposed to Hareta at the time), only for Watt to turn up Town and Free to be surprised. Why were you more confident about Watt over Hareta before we had the virgin incident?
  • Do we actually know Pano is hard confirmed Butler? I read Pano's roleclaim and explanation but surely that doesn't gurantee that you couldn't make that up if you were scum and got an explanation of how it works, right? I'm not suggesting Pano is guilty I'm just speculating possibilites
  • Malachai, who mostly has made roundup posts and readlists. And didn't Vote perse even though Perse rang guilty and they believed Phan and Aer?
  • One other tiny awful though is a Poisoned Chef making our one good 100 true intel useless...? But something about that seems so unlikely, idk.
I need a break 😓

Vote: Madeline/Persephone
(@Inkedust )
 
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