[INNOCENTS WIN] Grand Opening Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[kyeugh]

((also, even in the best case where you're innocent and this is boring to you because you're mechanically confirmed to yourself, this IS useful to literally everyone else. and there's SITLL no obstacle to you talking about other things that you believe are important, but when you had the chance to do that earlier you spent it writing up a thousand word joke about lynching negrek, so i'm not convinced you actually do have anything better to say than whatever you have to in order to ensure you're not lynched at all costs. if you have any actual leads, though, which would be the REAL reason for anyone to unvote you at this point, then by all means come out with it, because we could all use more information.))

 

[Namohysip]

((Email alerts, people! Hah, the ninja feature seems to have a delay of a few minutes compared to email.

I’m still at work. I’m catching up but have no time for anything gigantic... not that Hecto and I are sure what to make of all this anyway.))

Hecto’s ears were practically pinned to the back of his head. “Mia, Starr... frankly I don’t know what to think. It seems like everybody is telling the truth.”

((Well, they all sound passionate and earnest, if that’s what you mean.))

Hecto shifted where he stood, practically walking in place. “There are a few things that I am still... unclear about. To the crowd.”

Hecto’s eyes dimmed. “When, specifically, does the conversion take place? If someone was innocent with a power last night, but then became an assailant... did their action last night take effect? Or is it cancelled? More importantly... if someone is converted, they still have knowledge of what they had learned from their old powers. What if someone had an action that they performed last night... and that was their final act as an innocent? They could feign themselves as innocent by confessing their power. I don’t know the timing for this, or at least, I don’t recall, if it had been stated before... but it is a possibility unless stated otherwise.”

((Meta note: I actually didn’t realize that it was a specific mafia member that did the kill each night, and not just them as a group or something. Just figured I would take note of that.))

 

[Chibi Pika]

((Going OOC but gonna keep referring to everyone by character names. It just feels too weirdly personal otherwise. :T

So I'm really not seeing the supposed backpedaling regarding Lachlan?

I... think this was directed at Lachlan, but just wanted to make sure? Cause I didn't think Mia backpedaled on that, it was more that she kept doubling down while quietly shifting the reason for doubling down each time Lachlan presented his reasoning.

What... does this actually mean? A 'contrary vibe'? I'm honestly confused. Can you elaborate on what you're thinking there?

This is where I needed to follow through with quotes. Here you go:

Spoiler: text

[[OOC: right, right... considering that "voted for Dave last night" makes for almost 50% of the playerbase, I wouldn't be too quick to count it as a factor -- if it's all we can wring out for the day, we might as well chase it wherever it leads, but don't be surprised if it's a total red herring. anyways, for further analysis, I should perhaps start the work on trying to keep track of who even is who-]]

In other words, “Voting for Dave totally means nothing but also it totally might be all we can do so let’s just roll with it idk.” I read this post and found myself coming away with the idea that “voting for Dave is our only lead” despite the fact that I was already assuming that the mafia didn’t vote for Dave*, and was looking forward to seeing what other leads we could find! I couldn’t figure out why a post ostensibly agreeing with my view somehow left me with the opposite takeaway.

*Hecto and I had already expressed severe hesitation toward vote for Dave. The writing on the wall was that he was safe: not voting for him was clearly the better-looking option. I don’t think it’d take godly levels of prediction to jump on that opportunity to establish credibility.

lastly, when we're dealing with low-activity players, it usually pays to think about whether they tend to be quiet players, or if they just lie low when they play as mafia. from past experience, I can confirm the latter of qva, but can't disprove the former -- let's just say qva has ended up being scum in so many games in a row, it makes an assessment of townie behavior harder, ahahahah. not that that makes a scum alignment in this particular game any less or more likely, of course. still, of course, qva is the relatively rare exception of player that I have actually been in at least one game with prior to this; umbramatic isn't, which gives me not much to analyze behavior with. anyways, lynching one of these two sounds good to me, but making the final decision is a bit trickier, ahah]]

Here’s a good one. The text of the post says reasons why there’s no real case for Lachlan being quiet as an indication of scum… and then ends with the conclusion to put him on a lynch list anyway. I went into this post having no real opinion on Lachlan, and came out of it with the vague desire to lynch him for no reason, and it wasn’t until a few hours later that I went “wait what” and went back to figure out what happened. One does not “accidentally” state why a lynch is flimsy and then proceed to advocate for it anyway.

All in all, you're right that that was my weakest argument, and one based more on gut feeling than evidence. But I'm still including it with the others because it doesn't exist in a vaccuum and when you put it alongside the other things, like backing up Psyduck's points while trying to looking like she wasn't, and basically not posting anything useful for town throughout the entire game thus far--that's why I'm not budging on this.

On a side note, my instincts were also telling me that obsessing over analyzing why the mafia chose their kill in the earlygame felt weird and I’ve just read that it is indeed usually scummy. Because it’s distracting, mostly not useful until there’s more info to combine it with, and looks like an honest attempt at hunting but is easy to lead nowhere. That, and the mafia is just generally more likely to be thinking about it because the motivation is very relevant to them. I wouldn’t read someone as scum just for doing it by itself, but combined with everything else, it didn't make me feel better that Mia and Psyduck were the only ones doing it.

So... town!Mia would've not switched her vote to Psyduck upon seeing Psyduck confessing to being mafia? What? ?_? I don't understand this logic at all. Are you actually arguing she's suspicious for not having voted for Psyduck earlier? That would make sense (to the extent that suspecting people just for not voting for someone who turns out to be mafia generally would), but this really doesn't.

Town!Mia would have no reason to switch votes after the deadline had expired in order to put up the appearance of hammering a mafia who was already hammered. There's no reason to do it other than trying to look good when the votes get tallied up. Town don't need to go out of their way to look like town.

Hecto’s eyes dimmed. “When, specifically, does the conversion take place? If someone was innocent with a power last night, but then became an assailant... did their action last night take effect? Or is it cancelled? More importantly... if someone is converted, they still have knowledge of what they had learned from their old powers. What if someone had an action that they performed last night... and that was their final act as an innocent? They could feign themselves as innocent by confessing their power. I don’t know the timing for this, or at least, I don’t recall, if it had been stated before... but it is a possibility unless stated otherwise.”

It happened at the end of the night, after all other actions, including their own. I've been keeping it in the back of my mind, particularly in regards to one character, but I want the OG mafia out of the way first.

((Meta note: I actually didn’t realize that it was a specific mafia member that did the kill each night, and not just them as a group or something. Just figured I would take note of that.))

No worries, you're not alone, I learned that recently as well. Might've spent all day reading the mafiascum wiki because work was dull, heh.))

 

[Chibi Pika]

((I don’t really feel the need to respond to Mia’s latest batch of arguments. I think I laid out my reasons for not trusting her pretty well, and I obviously have no need to convince mafia of anything. Lachlan's latest interactions with her have only cemented things further. But if anyone else would like clarification on my points, I’ll gladly oblige.

Well, I will respond to one thing—the nod to my potential incompetency. That’s probably the best argument made so far. I’m new. Maybe I am a bad player. Maybe everyone else is bad for following me. Maybe you're hoping to scare me, to make me doubt myself. But when we get two mafia lynched back to back without a single mislynch, I’m gonna be feeling pretty good.))

 

[Namohysip]

((You're new? I must've missed that; could've fooled me! Though I'm also new in the sense that I've never done one at this pace before.))

Hecto's ears perked up. "New?" he said. "...Starr, and your guardian, I must ask, then: What was it that motivated you, today, to reveal your powers? That had resulted in quite the cascade of abilities from other players. Don't you think, as others have pointed out, that would put a target on your back? Frankly, I'm surprised you're still here as well... It doesn't seem like there were any powers made to save you, particularly after your deduction against Psyduck."

 

[Chibi Pika]

Starr stares long and hard at Hecto, something shifting in her expression. "The good answer is 'cause it's worth it. When I accused Dave, I genuinely thought I had incontrovertible proof that he was guilty. Putting a hit on my back to get rid of a provable mafia is worth it. Run the numbers--if that happens every day, we win. But then it turned out things weren't so simple regarding Dave's situation. And then all the fallout from my accusation lined up in the right way to support the suspicions I'd voiced yesterday, when I was trying to prove Psyduck's guilt."

An ironic grin crosses her face. "Now for the selfish answer. I don't think I'm dead. Not yet, anyhow. When we jail a mafia tomorrow, you'll all know I was on the right track. And well... I like to think that makes me worth keeping around, at least in the eyes of the people who can help with that. And if not? If I go the way of Karo, well... it's still a 1 for 1 trade. We still come out ahead. We're still going to win this, even if I die tonight. So yeah. It's worth it."

((I forgot to answer Hecto's earlier question, but Karo heavily implied he was the cop. That's why he was targeted and not me.))

 

[Negrek]

Day 3 will end in 24 hours.

Currently the vote stands at 3 for Mia.

 

[Namohysip]

((Oh, I see how it is, Negrek conveniently ignoring the vote on her... Also, I forgot about Karo implying he was 'hard to get rid of.' So much for that, I guess...))

Hecto listened quietly, looking down in thought. "...That much... I suppose is true. You seemed very sure of yourself that Dave had done it--the only person to be seen before Karo disappeared." He hesitated, as if he had forgotten that detail. He cleared his throat. "I apologize. It slipped my mind, and your reasoning makes sense. I suppose I am just... hesitant as I am." His claws scraped at the ethereal ground below him. "I can't make accusations with the same sort of confidence that you do, nor can I feel so dead-set, yet look at where that took you with Psyduck. Ngh..."

While Hecto seemed to be swayed by Starr's words, he still seemed hesitant to actually cast a vote. But when he started to look between all the members, he still wasn't sure who to actually vote for otherwise--and it certainly was a day to vote for someone.

But something came up that bothered him.

"Cabot," Hecto said. "I'm a bit surprised that you're so eagerly voting for someone. You were incredibly reluctant before. Why the change of heart?"

 

[Virgil134]

"Well... I didn't know for sure if anyone was guilty, so I didn't want to vote for anyone. But like I just explained, it feels different with Mia."

((Sorry if that line felt a little short, but just imagine Cabot repeating some of the stuff from my previous post if it does. Today's gonna be a bit of a busy day for me, so I won't have time to write up long posts. It's why I cast my vote yesterday and had Cabot explain his reasons why. I know that unlike the arguments Chibi and qva have made they're mostly in-narrative reasons, but I already mentioned how I'm gonna play this game, so that shouldn't be too much of a surprise.))

 

[NonAnalogue]

Mel listened to the testimony thoughtfully, occasionally exchanging words with Repeat. When there finally came a lull in the conversation, she spoke up. "So the way I'm looking at it is like this," she said, frowning at nobody in particular. "Aside from me and Repeat, we got Dave, Mia, Hecto, Cabot, Loki, Starr, Ess, and Lachlan. The people who're speaking up the most right now are Dave, Mia, and Starr, and then Lachlan and Cabot a bit less. And on top 'a that, Dave and Starr, and I guess me, have been upfront about what they were doing during the night. If they're not lying, anyway."

"Right so far, boss," Repeat said. "Starr immediately accused Dave, which might ordinarily raise some eyebrows, but then Dave corroborated it. So that makes me think that the only way that Starr is mafia is if Dave is also mafia, or if Dave is pulling some 7th-level chess moves or something."

Mel nodded. "And I don't think it's that, just because the way it happened would be more likely to make him look guilty than Starr. So I think we can say that Starr is probably clear. Can't get much of a read on the people who haven't said much, unfortunately. Might be a good way to lay low for the mafia, but I also don't want to start pulling names out of a hat."

"Which leaves us with Dave, Mia, Hecto, and Cabot, right, chief?"

"As far as I can tell. Plus us, of course, but we're not about to start working up an argument as to why we're the guilty ones. I want to think a bit about the way things woulda had to happen over the past few nights in order for everyone to be telling the truth." Mel looked up to the featureless void that passed as the sky and began pacing around the room. "Last night, Dave was seen near Karo, who disappeared. This could only be for one of two reasons. Either Dave was trying to protect him, or Dave was trying to get rid 'a him. The night before, when Infinite disappeared, you misdirected Dave and Cabot, and Dave said he deflected from himself to Infinite."

"Starr also said, boss, that she watched Hecto that night and didn't see anything," said Repeat.

"Right. And since Starr saw when you were misdirecting around her the first night, I'm guessing that means that she can see when someone takes action - so Hecto didn't do anything that night, which might mean that he's also not mafia, though I can't say that for sure. Now, Cabot hasn't said anything about what he was doing overnight, and neither has Mia. And between the two of them, Mia's acting more suspicious, but that's not always a tell either way. Now, back to what I was saying - what I want to know is, what order did everything happen in?"

"Boss?"

"So, like, you misdirected Dave and Cabot, but Dave also deflected away from himself. If the swap happened first, then if Dave was targeted, then Cabot would have actually been targeted. But if Dave deflected first, then what if the misdirection as a whole got deflected and you actually ended up swapping Cabot and Infinite?"

"Um..." Repeat fell silent for a moment, his eyes darting back and forth as he followed the train of logic in his head. "Wouldn't that have turned out the same either way? I mean, Infinite definitely did disappear."

"Right, but... I've been running the options through in my head. The only ways I can see it working are that:

- The mafia targets Cabot. Dave's deflection kicks in, and you end up misleading Infinite and Cabot instead. This causes Infinite to disappear.
- The mafia targets Cabot. Dave and Cabot get misled, then Dave deflects the hit to Infinite. Infinite disappears.
- The mafia targets Infinite right out. Nobody else's actions kick in.

So either the mafia targeted Cabot or Infinite. And frankly, I'm not sure why either of them would be targeted aside from being easy marks. Neither of them had made huge waves, from what I remember, right? So maybe the mafia figured it'd be best to pick off targets who wouldn't be defended."

"Either way," Repeat said, "not much to go on there. But about last night..."

"Right. If Starr is telling the truth, and given that Dave backed up what she said, so we don't have any particular reason to disbelieve her unless both she and Dave are mafia, then only Dave was seen around Karo. So either the mafia have a way to make someone disappear without being seen, or Dave is actually behind it."

"So what are you getting at, boss?"

"I think..." Mel let out a breath. "I hate to do this, because I'm worried I'm wrong, but I think Dave has the most suspicion around him right now. Karo's disappearance becomes super simple if Dave is lying."

((Here's the train my head followed:
Mafia targets Dave - Dave deflects everything onto Infinite - Infinite gets swapped with Cabot X
Mafia targets Dave - Dave and Cabot are swapped - Cabot disappears X
Mafia targets Dave - deflect fails - Dave and Cabot are swapped - Cabot disappears X
Mafia targets Cabot - Dave deflects - Infinite and Cabot are swapped - Y
Mafia targets Cabot - Dave and Cabot are swapped - Dave deflects - Infinite disappears Y
Mafia targets Cabot - deflect fails - Dave and Cabot are swapped - Dave disappears X
Mafia targets Infinite - Infinite disappears Y
Let me know if something doesn't hold! All this has my head spinning. And apologies if I misremembered something. Things are complicated right now!))

 

[Dragonfree]

Town!Mia would have no reason to switch votes after the deadline had expired in order to put up the appearance of hammering a mafia who was already hammered. There's no reason to do it other than trying to look good when the votes get tallied up. Town don't need to go out of their way to look like town.

((Uh, well, I absolutely would have switched votes there, as town. I don't know about anyone else, but as far as I'm concerned you vote for who you want to lynch, and if something happens to make me realize actually we should be lynching someone totally different, then yeah, I'm changing my vote for the principle of the thing, even if they're already being lynched either way? Like, does everyone else here agree that in this situation, if they saw Psyduck having confessed, they'd decide to just leave their vote on Lachlan because they don't need to go out of their way to look like town? I'd be extremely surprised if the answer was yes.

Mia's behaviour has definitely been a bit unusual, particularly regarding Psyduck, and I guess I can kind of see what you mean regarding the 'contrary vibe'; that's not really how I read those posts to start with, but there definitely is an element of these paragraphs talking back and forth over a single point in a confusing way that could be deliberate obfuscation, or trying to seem to be contributing but ultimately coming down not coming to much of a conclusion. She's also been acting particularly hostile and unpleasant upon accusation, which isn't entirely out of line with her previous behaviour, and may just be a matter of personality/playstyle rather than alignment (I'm thinking again of how I played with qva a while back and found her frustration and hostility in response to being accused scummy, right up until it turned out it wasn't)... but it's not exactly endearing.

Also, while I'm unconvinced that her voting for Dave immediately upon Starr announcing her results was necessarily scummy - you yourself said you were extremely confident that your results meant Dave was mafia, and I tend to agree that a result like this would generally be a pretty reasonable justification for voting - there may be something to the bit about how she immediately started talking about what next, like this was a done deal - just a bit too eager, maybe.

All in all, I'm still a bit wary and I don't think all of Chibi's stated reasons are great; I doubt that's malicious so much as sort of getting overeager to interpret things badly when already convinced of a result, but I definitely think it's a bit overconfident. Buuuut I'm going to say Mia's still probably our best bet here.))

"Shut the fuck up!" Dave snarled at nothing, looking wildly up at the sky.

((Uh oh, I think it's happening.))

"Look, I don't know what's going on with these fucking voices, but..." He turned back towards Mia. "She's...."

He took a deep breath, staring at her. Slowly, he took a step back. "...I'm not sure that's her. She's acting fucking weird. 'Big bad' fucking scythes? She doesn't fucking talk like that. And she's not responding, all while this fucking... voice keeps speaking for her. What the fuck are these voices and why are they fucking talking about us?"

 

[Dragonfree]

((oh my god more ninjas help))

 

[NonAnalogue]

((For what it's worth, if someone confessed, I would definitely change my vote to reflect it.

That said, even odds that I would change my vote away from them just for the hell of it, so I might not be the best barometer. ))

 

[kyeugh]

Mia's behaviour has definitely been a bit unusual, particularly regarding Psyduck, and I guess I can kind of see what you mean regarding the 'contrary vibe'; that's not really how I read those posts to start with, but there definitely is an element of these paragraphs talking back and forth over a single point in a confusing way that could be deliberate obfuscation, or trying to seem to be contributing but ultimately coming down not coming to much of a conclusion. She's also been acting particularly hostile and unpleasant upon accusation, which isn't entirely out of line with her previous behaviour, and may just be a matter of personality/playstyle rather than alignment (I'm thinking again of how I played with qva a while back and found her frustration and hostility in response to being accused scummy, right up until it turned out it wasn't)... but it's not exactly endearing.

((i'm not really sure it's the same. as someone who (obviously) gets a bit frustrated when i'm sused as town, i sort of have empathy for people who act this way, up to a point. but this level of frustration— particularly the insinuation that people susing her are either scum or "batshit" right off the bat— is kind of setting off major alarms even to me, and i think it definitely crosses some sort of line for a reasonable level of townie frustration. even in comparison to previous games she's been a part of that i was in or read, this seems pretty excessive, and in combination with the other marks against her, i'm definitely leaning on reading it as alignment-indicative.))

 

[Umbramatic]

((There's all sorts of galaxy-brain plays being thrown around here and I'm like "halp what does my disaster Zygarde child do"))

 

[Chibi Pika]

"Right. And since Starr saw when you were misdirecting around her the first night, I'm guessing that means that she can see when someone takes action - so Hecto didn't do anything that night, which might mean that he's also not mafia, though I can't say that for sure.

“Eh… close. It’s more like I didn’t see anyone else do anything to him. I wouldn’t have been able to tell if he himself did something. Doesn’t change anything about your rundown there, but could be useful later.”

 

[Namohysip]

((Oh would you look at the time! There isn't really much that I can do, so...))

As much as Hecto didn't like it, he didn't know who to vote for or what to do. Mia indeed seemed like the most suspicious candidate, but unlike Psyduck, he simply didn't have the same confidence as before. Despite the new information that had come up, it all amounted to even greater mysteries--if any one of them had been lying, the entire theory fell apart.

But all things considered, it was all they had. "I'm sorry," he said to Mia. "This is all we have to go by."

 

[Chibi Pika]

((Ack, real quick post before bed, since I might get nightkilled, I wanna share my thoughts on the recruit situation first. Namely--Hecto is most likely not the recruit. Our only piece of evidence, of course, is Psyduck's initial theorymongering on the subject. While it's teeeechnically possible that she brought that up intentionally in order to make it seem completely ridiculous for him be the recruit... that would require an ungodly level of prediction (for starters, predicting and banking on us lynching her, long before any suspicions appeared, solely to make Hecto fly under the radar?) And it would still be a better call to just not draw attention to him in the first place. I'm not 100% confident on this (I'd put it 60-40) so I urge everyone else to reread Psyduck's post and see if I missed anything. That's all I got. Best of luck.))

 

[Negrek]

There is a sixteen-hour extension on Day 3. Day 3 will end on Saturday at 6 pm EST/10 pm UTC. I missed the end of the day already and really need to reset the time to something I'm more likely to be able to make. We're also missing votes from 1/3 of the active players! Please feel free to vote if you haven't already.

Sorry for the delay! Please feel free to use the extra time to discuss/vote, catch up on the thread, or just hang out. Currently the vote stands as such:

Mia - 5 (Namonhysip, Dragonfree, Chibi Pika, Virgil134, qva)
Dave - 1 (NonAnalogue)

Not Voting: Umbramatic, NebulaDreams, M&F

 

[Negrek]

The day starts innocuously enough with rampant speculation about Dave and Karo's relationship, but it isn't long until other suspicions arise. Specifically, Starr doesn't care for the scyther-morph who's been lurking around near the edge of the group.

"You think I'm a member of the Mafia?" Mia asks. "That's stupid. Why won't any of you make sense?" The group isn't convinced, and the morph grows increasingly agitated as accusations continue to pile up, flexing her arms so her arm-blades glint faintly in the dim, directionless light of the confluence. Her gaze flits back and forth from one person to the next, and her lip curls, showing teeth.

One voice in particular catches her attention. "Dave? Even you? You think I'm Mafia?"

Dave holds up his hands. "Mia, that wasn't me. That was some other... fucking... I don't know. Don't--"

But Mia's gaze jerks away from him to focus instead on Starr. "No sense," she mutters. "You're not the real Dave, anyway."

Starr folds her arms and stares back. "What? Don't look at me like this is my fault. If you're not Mafia, you should be able to defend yourself. That simple."

Mia lets out a growl, raising her blades, then breaks into a terribly fast charge. Dave starts after her.

This time it's Hecto who warps the interdimensional space, turning the ground beneath Mia's feet liquid. She strains forward even as the strange off-white substance that passes for earth sucks her down, gaze still fixed on Starr, but it's no use. The strange, putty-like substance closes over her head, and she's lost to sight, leaving Dave staring helplessly down at a flat patch of ground, indistinguishable from any other.

Ultimately there isn't much evidence to go on. None of them managed to bring much with them, and Mia in particular didn't seem to have any personal effects. Even a thorough examination of the place she'd claimed to sleep in turned up nothing but a crumpled sheet of paper.

Next target is Karo.

Let's meet tonight.

The vote stands as follows:

Mia - 5 (Namonhysip, Dragonfree, Chibi Pika, Virgil134, qva)
Dave - 1 (NonAnalogue)

Not Voting: Umbramatic, NebulaDreams, M&F

Mia (M&F) has been jailed. She was Mafia.

Night Three has begun. You have forty-eight hours to submit night actions.