[INNOCENTS WIN] First Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[Equitial]

If it turns out there can just be two protectors... heck. Guess I just put a target on my head, but I’m extremely suspicious of Sike now.

There were two protectors last game so...

 

[Equitial]

I already gave my answer to that one, too, more than once--including right in the bit you quoted there, as a matter of fact:

...I honestly have no idea what you're getting at even after re-reading your posts. Sorry? Elyvorg just went over all the possibilities so I guess it doesn't matter now.

Emphasis on I currently have no evidence either way.

That was what confused me. We do have evidence that DawningWind did the swap because they confirmed your story before you said you protected Chibi. Elyvorg outlined some reasons how/why they could be lying, but right now that's a point in their favor. Personally, I'm inclined to treat all the people who've claimed so far as innocent unless other information comes up.

 

[Namohysip]

[[

Oh, look at them. How precious. Thinking that all of them were perfectly innocent because they were acting nice. So quick to trust everyone, even though the real culprit was probably still--

And then the Raichu starts talking. Diyem sighed, rubbing his forehead, praying that he would be able to decipher what was said. If he translated it properly... "Are you telling me," he said, "that you claim to be another protector?"

There was a chance that there would be two... but that's also a question in and of itself. Two protectors. "How can we utilize this information?" he stated. "Assuming they are both telling the truth... we need to make sure they aren't aiming for the same person. Perhaps even divide up their target candidates so the mafia cannot predict for sure who will aim for what. One only aims for those whose names start with M or earlier, and the other for the rest..." He shrugged. "Assuming they're both telling the truth. So far, there is no way to verify that Chibi was another protector, unless a watcher or similar role saw him milling about... But they may not want to reveal their position yet."

]]

 

[elyvorg]

[["That was Chibi's trick?" Tefiren suddenly spoke up, snapping out of his silent moody staring at two-thirds of the group. "He could protect people? And now, the funny-talking Raichu learned that trick off him?"

He huffed to himself. Really? Just protecting people?

...Well, usually, protecting from being caught by Them would be the most important trick of all, sure - and being able to use that kind of trick to also protect others made someone even cleverer. But that was just in Tefiren's normal game back home. This game had so much more to it! It wasn't just about escaping Them, it was about catching Them, too! So the most important tricks in this game, the best, cleverest ones that were so creative that nobody else should be able to copy them at all, would be the kind of tricks that could help someone catch Them.

Tefiren had thought Chibi had had clever, important tricks like that. Something like that, at least. Not something so basic. Those simpler protecting tricks were only really important in this game for protecting the ones with the better tricks.

He let out a huffy sigh and turned back to the conversation. "But that doesn't mean the big blue one is lying. It's not weird that more than one person could have thought up a trick like that, is it?" He stared bluntly at the Raichu. "You shouldn't have said you have that trick. Now They know about both of you. Maybe They'll just go for one of you next, so you can't protect the more important ones later. Or maybe They won't even bother, because They still have Their super-special trick that can catch anyone no matter what anyway."

...The thought of that was still weighing on Tefiren, and it annoyed him. Surely They, even with how much slightly-cleverer They were being in this game, couldn't just suddenly catch Tefiren now like it was nothing? That didn't make sense. That couldn't be right. Tefiren could escape from anyone.

]]

...Sure, Tefiren, you just keep telling yourself that.

Re: role overlaps - I at least think it's pretty likely there could be two doctors in a game this big; there were in last year's. If there is a second doctor, they should definitely stay quiet for the time being.

... *sigh*.

I'm not the only one here who can vouch that two doctors in a game this big is completely normal and not suspicious... aaaand assuming you're genuine, now the mafia knows where both of them are.

There's no reason to suspect Sike and DawningWinds just because they roleclaimed. Their roleclaims were not out of nowhere for the hell of it; they were directly relevant to the question of why Chibi died. Sike claimed out of what was initially confusion at her protection target ending up dead, which sort of accidentally turned into a softclaim that she then decided to commit to. DawningWinds claimed in order to give us the information that the mafia must have been aiming for qva, making qva innocent.

I would be leery of Tanuki having basically just roleclaimed for the hell of it straight after saying that doing so is obviously suspicious, but then again it reads to me as genuine unfamiliarity with games like this that have this many power roles in them, causing him to suspect Sike for having the same role as him(/Chibi). So for the moment, I think I believe him, despite there being no proof of it.

 

[Dragonfree]

[["Sure there can be two protectors. There were last time. Nothing weird about it. And it's not really fucking fantastic that here they both are outed for the mafia to pick off." Dave pinched the bridge of his nose. "But okay, I can believe cowboy didn't realize that. There's basically no fucking way he makes this claim if he's mafia, because even if he wanted to cause confusion and get a doctor jailed, he'd have just claimed to be a doctor in the first place, instead of saying he was a backup and got the power from... Chibi? Isn't that small in Japanese or something? Why does everyone have weird-ass names in here. Like, because otherwise the real backup's probably alive and would contradict him, right? Two protectors is plausible but it's very unlikely there'd be two backups."]]

 

[elyvorg]

[[Tefiren glanced at the messy Human. He really did know how to make sense most of the time, it seemed. "That's true! If the funny Raichu is lying and someone else actually learned Chibi's tricks, they can tell us, and they wouldn't even need to say what Chibi's real tricks were.

"...So the Raichu probably isn't lying." So Chibi's tricks probably really were just basic, not-that-creative protecting-people tricks. Hmph.

]]

Dave makes a good point, and now I'm even more sure about Tanuki being innocent.

 

[kyeugh]

i pretty much believe tanuki because i was in that position last game hahaha

 

[windskull]

[[Everything was happening so fast. From claims of protection and switching. Humans and pokemon vouching trust in each other. Hurled accusations that threw a wrench in everything he thought to be true. And then before he can open his mouth to speak, people just keep talking. Finally, he's had enough.

"Listen! Let's just... before we decide for certain someone's telling the truth, can we at least talk about the possibilities?"]]


I've been working this out since Tanuki's claim last night and although the general consensus seems to be that Tanuki is innocent (and, admittedly, I'm leaning that way as well) I still want to run through the scenarios.

Scenario 1: Sike is lying, Tanuki is telling the truth
If Sike is lying about their protector role and we assume that dawningwinds really is a switcher, it would still be possible for Chibi to have been protected night 0 if they targeted SparklingEspeon and the shield got swapped to them (if I'm understanding game mechanics correctly, if I'm not please correct me). Alternatively, the target was never Espy, and Chibi protected whoever the mafia actually targeted. Unfortunately, this seems to be information that we don't have.

And then night 1, it wouldn't have mattered who Chibi targeted so long as it wasn't qva, again as long as we can trust dawningwinds claim. Which, at this point in time, is the claim I trust the most.

Scenario 2: Tanuki is lying, Sike is telling the truth
To break this one down further...
A. Chibi was a protector, but Tanuki is not backup
If this is the case, It would still have been possible for the mafia to target someone else. Sike protects Espy, Chibi protects someone else, and the mafia could have targeted either of them. That much is true so long as Sike is telling the truth. What's questionable is how Tanuki would have known Chibi was a protector if he's not the backup. The only alternative off the top of my head is if he was a rolecop. I absolutely don't believe this scenario because it feels too outlandish, but it was worth throwing out there to explore the possibility.

B. Chibi was not a protector at all
In this case, the mafia target N0 would absolutely have to be Espy if DW is telling the truth. Which, in this scenario, is pretty much set in stone. Unless there's another protector out there.

Scenario 3: Both are telling the truth
Yes, it is entirely possible we had two protectors, and it's entirely possible Chibi was the second one. I'm struggling to think of what to put here that hasn't already been said. The only thing it brings into question is whether Espy was the N0 target, since Chibi would be protecting someone else. Again, unfortunately, that's information we don't have, but at this point, I'm not sure how useful that information would be.

Scenario 4: Both are lying
Okay this... I don't believe this at all lol. But I'm still going to throw the possibility out there for the sake of a complete argument. It's still technically possible that this could be a wild gambit by the mafia, but it would mean that we still know nothing and I would think that someone would counterclaim by now. (And if this is the case and they haven't they need to step up)

So... my thoughts? Right now, I'm heavily leaning towards scenario 3, but I just can't throw 1 and 2b out the window.

 

[Persephone]

Deep breath

Alright let's do this shit.

[[ "S-sorry everyone. I'm not great with words. But I have been quiet so I think that I need to say something? Yeah. Sure. Anyway, here it is.

"So the espurr has been targeted. That seems to make them the most clean. Unless the mafia was shooting themselves in hopes of... yeah, no. Too complicated. Sorry for bringing it up. Then if we believe some other people then qva is also good.

"I know this is ironic and maybe I missed it in a lot of fast conversation but I don't really remember Yami saying anything meaningful? I'm going to try speaking up more and I think they should too. Even if they're really, really scary."

"Last, well, the charizard started proposing we kill people yesterday and then got really mad when people turned to him. It just all seems a little odd. Insisting someone should be suspected and then being furious when it comes around to you. And he seems smart so I'd hate to fight him for long if he was evil." ]]

Look I'm still recovering from finals and I probably missed things but those are my thoughts for now. I'd like to hear more explanation from Namo on how much was RP'ing and how much wasn't. There have been some lurkers, I just threw one out at random but there are others who I can't remember ever making a substantive post (yeah, ironic, I know, sorry). I would like to hear more of their thoughts on who to target as it seems unwise not to target someone and we're running short on time after fitting more dramatic reveals than a soap opera into one day.

 

[kyeugh]

"Last, well, the charizard started proposing we kill people yesterday and then got really mad when people turned to him. It just all seems a little odd. Insisting someone should be suspected and then being furious when it comes around to you. And he seems smart so I'd hate to fight him for long if he was evil."

[[ “Hoho! My thought as well! As I said, not a serious cause for suspicion at this time, but something I’d like for us to remember occurred, in case it’s useful information. Peculiar behavior indeed.” Lauchs seemed rather vexed by Dave’s ability to manifest beer from nothing despite his own misfortune trying to do so with leeks himself. He gave an annoyed look at the bottle before clearing his throat (sounding rather like he’s quacking) and continuing on.

“I find all of this theorizing most insightful indeed, though I admit I think the best explanation here is the simplest one. For the time being, I choose to believe everyone is telling the truth. And it reflects rather well on me if they are, doesn’t it? Oho. As for finding the rapscallion behind this heinous act, well... I don’t think we still have much of a lead to go on, but we now have a fair few people we shouldn’t jail for time being, eh? That’s something!” ]]

 

[elyvorg]

Scenario 1: Sike is lying, Tanuki is telling the truth
If Sike is lying about their protector role and we assume that dawningwinds really is a switcher, it would still be possible for Chibi to have been protected night 0 if they targeted SparklingEspeon and the shield got swapped to them (if I'm understanding game mechanics correctly, if I'm not please correct me). Alternatively, the target was never Espy, and Chibi protected whoever the mafia actually targeted. Unfortunately, this seems to be information that we don't have.

And then night 1, it wouldn't have mattered who Chibi targeted so long as it wasn't qva, again as long as we can trust dawningwinds claim. Which, at this point in time, is the claim I trust the most.

Your logic seems a little backwards. In a scenario in which Sike is lying about protecting Espurr on night 0, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Espurr was even the mafia's target that night at all and therefore no need to try and "explain" it.

Scenario 2: Tanuki is lying, Sike is telling the truth
To break this one down further...
A. Chibi was a protector, but Tanuki is not backup
If this is the case, It would still have been possible for the mafia to target someone else. Sike protects Espy, Chibi protects someone else, and the mafia could have targeted either of them. That much is true so long as Sike is telling the truth. What's questionable is how Tanuki would have known Chibi was a protector if he's not the backup. The only alternative off the top of my head is if he was a rolecop. I absolutely don't believe this scenario because it feels too outlandish, but it was worth throwing out there to explore the possibility.

Same here. If Tanuki is lying, then there's no reason to believe Chibi even was a protector, so the question of "how did Tanuki know Chibi was a protector?" is moot. He'd just have made it up, whether he's coincidentally right about it or not, because we'd never know.

Or, well, we wouldn't except for the fact that if he's lying then there's probably a real backup who can easily contradict him, see Dave's point.

All that said, while your logic's a little shaky, it strikes me as a genuine attempt to help and not an attempt to manipulate us into wanting to lynch one of our two probably-confirmed doctors, especially since you concluded that they're most likely both telling the truth after all.

B. Chibi was not a protector at all
In this case, the mafia target N0 would absolutely have to be Espy if DW is telling the truth. Which, in this scenario, is pretty much set in stone. Unless there's another protector out there.

Not that it probably matters much - although I suppose it does if anyone's going to be chalking Espurr up as definitely innocent for just this reason - but I'm still not super-convinced the mafia's N0 target was SparklingEspeon. She seems to be a pretty inexperienced player, and the mafia would probably rather take out someone more experienced to start with when they have nothing else to go on.

I kind of assumed from the beginning that we probably had two doctor roles - again, that's normal in a game this big; there were last year. We also might well have a one-shot bulletproof among us, since that was on the role list as well, so it could also be that person the mafia tried to kill night 0. And, well, I guess at this point the townie roleblocker theory is probably off the table. But still, that puts us at most likely three different possible reasons the night 0 kill failed. So Espurr is slightly more likely to be innocent because she was protected night 0, but it's very much not close to confirmed yet.


I agree with Persephone that we ought to hear more from the people who haven't been speaking much. Almost everyone who's been contributing a lot is somewhere on my judgement scale of probably-to-definitely innocent right now, which narrows things down but doesn't directly point us towards someone to lynch today. Hearing more from the quieter ones to get a better read on them too would be helpful. I also wouldn't mind hearing a bit more from Namo, since they're the one I'm most undecided about among the bigger contributors.

 

[Tanuki]

[[Desper stood broke ‘s a Preacher on Friday. “‘F I ain’t got a plate full a hard bo’led wh’n I ordered over easy,” Desper grumbled. “Mayhaps I shoulda list’n’d more’n I spoke. Made m’self a deputy callin’ the sheriff dim. ‘Course, there ain’t a sheriff wit’ more brains’n a barstool, but’s how the ee-dee-um goes.”

Now seemed better a time than any to try this newfangled conjurin’ f’r s’m booze. By the stars’n bard, he got a bottle look’n’ straight from the Twitchy Taillow’s Tavern. A gulp, a cough, ‘n’ he was sure this was certified devil’s blood.

Another swig, sans the cough, ‘n’ he turned t’Ntairow. “M’apologies. Wa’n’t right of me to go throwin’ accusations like that. Bit green’n this neck o’ the woods, y’see? Hope I didn’t cause ya too much heartache.”

One apology too many, he took another swig too many’n’ decided he’d need to pace himself. “I’gree we ain’t heard much from Tubs, ‘sides his showin’ off knowledge of th’alphabet. I do miss the days when Ol’ Sour Scales’d groan’n gripe at e’ry lil bump in his lynchin’ ideals. Tell me, who’s you itchin’ t’hang t’day?”]]

 

[windskull]

Your logic seems a little backwards. In a scenario in which Sike is lying about protecting Espurr on night 0, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Espurr was even the mafia's target that night at all and therefore no need to try and "explain" it.

That's a fair point. I got a little too focused on trying to work out whether a theoretical protect-swap could have happened, but I agree with what you're saying here, and with the rest of your post in general.

I'm going to hold off on making any judgement calls until tonight since that's when discussion usually picks up, but I agree with persephone in the sense that I'd like to hear more from the lurkers and Namo (who's probably asleep at the time of me posting this?)

 

[Sike Saner]

That was what confused me. We do have evidence that DawningWind did the swap because they confirmed your story before you said you protected Chibi. Elyvorg outlined some reasons how/why they could be lying, but right now that's a point in their favor. Personally, I'm inclined to treat all the people who've claimed so far as innocent unless other information comes up.

I guess you and I just have differing definitions of "evidence". Ultimately, DawningWinds' testimony is hearsay, and there'll probably always be something in me that'll balk against treating hearsay as anything too concrete--even when it'd be convenient to. Even when it backs up my own claims, because it could absolutely just be doing so coincidentally.

Of course, trouble is, this game's close to 100% hearsay when it comes to evidence, isn't. For the most part, we don't know anyone's alignment until they're eliminated. For the most part, we don't know roles until after the game's end. All the majority of us have to go by is hearsay, and all we can do is decide who to trust based on what makes the most sense to each of us. So I guess ultimately I'm going to have to swallow some pride and decide whose hearsay to trust most.

"Assuming they are both telling the truth... we need to make sure they aren't aiming for the same person. Perhaps even divide up their target candidates so the mafia cannot predict for sure who will aim for what. One only aims for those whose names start with M or earlier, and the other for the rest..."

I like this idea. Tanuki? If you are another doctor, I'd recommend you call dibs on one side of the alphabet or the other. I know there was no overdose clause in last year's game, but better safe than sorry, yeah?

I hope you are another doctor, incidentally. Having claimed doctor myself, I have a nightkill target on me the size of... well, of a seven-foot monstrosity, I guess. :B Hence why I really didn't want to claim, and wouldn't have done so had I not basically stumbled ass backward into doing so. If there are two of us, that does mean an extra night of a potential innocent immunity (barring a pierce-kill, of course).

On a related note, if you are the doctor, I do wish you hadn't claimed. Unless you're just seriously that suspicious of me--which, fair; again, all we really have to go by is hearsay, and anyone can say anything--there was no real reason to claim. (Arguably, "welp, cat's out of the bag anyway" isn't a real reason to claim, anyway, so feel free to suspect me on those grounds too, I guess.) Meanwhile, there was a pretty damn good reason not to: doctors are surely appetizing targets for the mafia.

So in the event that you're not legit, but there's still another doctor out there? I highly recommend you do not claim anytime too soon.

Another swig, sans the cough, ‘n’ he turned t’Ntairow. “M’apologies. Wa’n’t right of me to go throwin’ accusations like that. Bit green’n this neck o’ the woods, y’see? Hope I didn’t cause ya too much heartache.”

[["Heartache" wasn't exactly the word Ntairow would have chosen. Indignation, maybe. Suspicion, maybe. She bit both back for the time being, certain it would reflect poorly on her if she reacted too defensively.

She drew a deep breath in an effort to calm herself. There was potential good news in the raichu's words, she reminded herself. "I'll let it slide," she said, "on the grounds that you may save some lives in the nights to come. Although I do hope you realize the risk you've taken by stepping forward." She didn't fear for herself all that much, but could a raichu really hold his own against the threat they faced?]]

 

[Equitial]

[[
Jen perked up when Sirfetch'd and the human teenager started talking about what they should actually do tonight, rather than arguing what percent certain they all were that the people who'd claimed were telling the truth. Sure, maybe some of them were lying. But if they were then they’d have more and more difficulty keeping up the charade as time went on. Might as well focus on routing out other the members of the mafia in that case.

He nodded when others agreed questioning Charizard more was a good idea. When they agreed questioning Diyem was a good idea. Everyone was referring to the Pokémon, who mostly seemed like adults, by names. Was calling grown Pokémon by their species only a thing in Jen’s world?

The human teenager also mentioned inactives. For that Jen said:

"For people who’ve barely said anything, there’s yourself, Yami, and Espurr. And Espurr should be included in this. What Grovyle said. And if we’re going to suspect them, remember that the mafia probably targeted Sirfetch’d.” If any of them are mafia, they and their teammates would have chosen their target to move suspicion away from themselves to others. If any of them were mafia it’d be unlikely that’s all of them, but still.

“Sirfe… Lauchzelot led the idea that we should have jailed someone. Genesis was the only one of the three who actually voted yesterday, and she voted against Lauchzelot’s idea. Espurr didn’t vote or say anything. Yami didn’t vote, and he only supported jailing someone after Lauchzelot and I cast the first voted and the conversation was mostly over.”
]]

Btw, Jen’s assuming the mafia targeted qva because I’m still really inclined to believe DW when they said they swapped Chibi and qva. I also want to make clear that I agree that Namo should explain himself.

Also, I’ve been exhausted recently and may not be active much tonight. I’ll try to get in more thoughts before the end of the day, but yeah.

 

[Tanuki]

And it reflects rather well on me if they are, doesn’t it? Oho.

[[“Oh ain’t you the sweetest in barrel? Why, I’ll bet yer outhouse smells like dandelions’n’ roses’n’ flowers grow where y’pee.” Desper rolled his eyes. “‘Ga’dless, I’gree we’ve gots’nough’nfermation’n’at’r inaction’ain’t gonna fly’ny longer. I believe me’n Scales’ve shared’r beef, so I won’t divulge much more, but we’s at least got’nough info t’know who’s’nnocent.”

He turned and bowed his brim to Ntairow once more. “I’ll do my duty to the best m’ability. I hope we’ll see each other at the end’f all this. Shouldn’t’a shown my hand. Dealer knows more’n us now, and he wins the push.”

His claws clinked against his bottle and turned back to the group. Not quite time yet for more, so he only took a sip. “I’m’spicious Scales more’n anyun, but most e’s done’s argue what he thought was right. ‘F’e were a sheriff, nary’d a wrong would be admitted ‘fore the sun got snuffed.”

This’n’d take a swig’n then some. “I... am inclined to believe him innocent f’now. He didn’t even start the discussion on hanging. We’re runnin’ after the cue ball f’r rollin’. I’m thinkin’ he got tricked into runnin’ into’s own conviction. Pray tell, who started playin’ sheriff first?”]]

OOC/Translation: I wish I hadn’t revealed too, honestly. It was a bad move, and there’ve been multiple doctors in irl games, too. This was an awful play on my part, sorry.

Regardless, Namo didn’t even start the discussion on killing, he just ran with it for a suspicious amount of time. He cited game theory, which leaves me inclined to believe he honestly thought it was the best move. In my experience, Mafia are way quicker to drop the first round execution idea... like the people who actually started the discussion did. I think they should answer for themselves more than Namo should.

 

[elyvorg]

I'm pretty sure Namo was the first person to bring up lynching yesterday? Correct me if there's anything before this post that broached the topic. Not that I think that in itself is a reason to be more or less suspicious of them.

If you two doctors are going to do the alphabet-split thing, then you're going to need to decide which names you're going by, usernames or character names. Or a better way to split it completely equally, since our names aren't necessarily neatly spread out across the alphabet, might be to just go with the top half and the bottom half of the player list.

[["What Grovyle said."]]

[[Tefiren tilted his head as the small brown Human called him that. "Do I look like a Grovyle? I evolved ages ago! Isn't it obvious that I'm an Archopy? I thought Humans knew Archopy. The messy one did."

Surely that meant this small brown Human couldn't be one of Them, if he didn't even know what an Archopy was? Then again, it could be a trick, just to make him think that. There was no way to tell.
]]

Tefiren, the mafia are not actually genodical Sceptile in disguise, this is not helping. Also way to set yourself up for disaster by asking if humans have heard of Archopy.

[["But yes. The quiet ones should talk more. The one trying to hide in the glowing slate hasn't talked much today either. We won't be able to catch Them slipping up and saying something stupid if the ones who might be Them don't even say anything."
]]

Fiametta, he means Fiametta.

 

[Sike Saner]

I usually go by character names when sending actions, so I think I'd be less likely to screw up and defend the wrong person if we go by character names for splitting the duties.

 

[kyeugh]

Regardless, Namo didn’t even start the discussion on killing, he just ran with it for a suspicious amount of time. He cited game theory, which leaves me inclined to believe he honestly thought it was the best move. In my experience, Mafia are way quicker to drop the first round execution idea... like the people who actually started the discussion did. I think they should answer for themselves more than Namo should.

elyvorg raises a good point but also my understanding is that it isn’t really just about this, it’s also about his weird reaction to when i gave him the lightest of shade.

 

[Dragonfree]

[["By the way, this alphabet thing... it sounds cool in theory but I'm not so sure it's a great idea." Dave frowned, rubbing his forehead. "Look, yeah, this'd make sense if two people healing the same person could kill them or something. But otherwise? Yeah, I guess the heal is technically wasted if they both heal the same person, and guaranteeing two different people get healed would be great against a mafia firing off shots at random. But they're not, and giving the mafia more information on who may be healed and preventing healers from going for the most healworthy targets is a little dubious. In particular, if the grouping has both of the healers themselves in the same group, like one of the possible alphabetical groupings? Then, assuming the healers can't heal themselves, they know that the healer who's healing within that group is going to be unprotected. Free doctor they can kill. That's a bad idea."]]