[INNOCENTS WIN] First Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[Persephone]

I'm confident enough that Sike is scum that I'd rather go for that kill than another.

If Sike does flip town, then we should take a hard look at Espy. Finding your way into a position with a somewhat easily faked role, a virtual immunity to daykilling, and MOST IMPORTANTLY a takedown of a healer on the same day is almost too good to be true.

My vote is unchanged.

 

[Dragonfree]

To be honest I think Sike having been roleblocked is the simplest explanation here, and the arguments that this is unlikely compared to her being mafia kind of alarm me. The Sike-is-mafia theory involves a really bold double fakeclaim. It's possible, but I don't really think it's more likely than there being a mafia roleblocker who happened to hit Sike.

I'm also kind of surprised elyvorg thinks healers are so much less important than inforoles. Healers can prevent nightkills! They can protect the inforoles! Losing a healer is a pretty big deal!

 

[Namohysip]

[[

"There is one issue that sticks out to me more than anything else," Diyem said, stretching his wings. "I've taken some time to think--"

]]

And slept on it overnight and gave it some extra thought this morning, and took in the arguments by Dragonfree, qva, and so on--

[[

"--and I do not know if the Ntairow is the best vote right now. Per the scenario I had outlined, Ntairow could potentially have been roleblocked, which gives much more credence to the idea that Finnar is lying or using the bus driver ability maliciously for the mafia. I see no reason why the mafia would intentionally target Lauchs unless they knew it would switch over to Chibi, or if a switch hadn't been performed at all."

Diyem paced, thoughtful. "For that reason... I feel that the most cautious vote is to strike Finnar after all. While it seems that the tide has already turned in favor of Ntairow... I am stating my opinion on this now." He lowered his head. "Apologies for flipping so frequently, but Lauch's words are swaying me. It's a small chance, but it is only roughly 10%. Compared to the way Finnar's story is stacking up, I'd rather save Ntairow's fate for another night."

]]

 

[kyeugh]

To be honest I think Sike having been roleblocked is the simplest explanation here, and the arguments that this is unlikely compared to her being mafia kind of alarm me. The Sike-is-mafia theory involves a really bold double fakeclaim. It's possible, but I don't really think it's more likely than there being a mafia roleblocker who happened to hit Sike.

👏yes👏
👏we👏stan👏a👏towny👏dragonfree👏

 

[Dragonfree]

I'm confident enough that Sike is scum that I'd rather go for that kill than another.

If Sike does flip town, then we should take a hard look at Espy. Finding your way into a position with a somewhat easily faked role, a virtual immunity to daykilling, and MOST IMPORTANTLY a takedown of a healer on the same day is almost too good to be true.

My vote is unchanged.

What do you (and Sike) think about the fact SparklingEspeon wanted to be killed to get out of the game? Would a mafia player in that position not first discuss wanting to get out of the game with their teammates, rather than just going and screwing them over like this?

 

[NonAnalogue]

-- Conversation initiated with WitchesBlue [FORTUNATA, FIAMETTA] --

[WB] fuck
[WB] i dont like this
[WB] everythings moving super quickly and i cant wrap my head around all this to keep up
[WB] ugggh
[WB] fine
[WB] what the fuck ever
[WB] my guts sayin to just stick with my guns and vote desper ado
[WB] something about him just pinging the wrong things
[WB] maybe its his accent
[WB] i dunno
[WB] whatever
[WB] not like this is gonna do anything anyway

[WB] i vote desper ado again

 

[Namohysip]

(Side note: I feel like the chaos is getting to Negrek as well because I'm pretty sure I had voted for Sike before flipping, since I had done so tentatively. Unless that was part of a fever dream. Let me double check... Yep I did.)

 

[Dragonfree]

Sike being roleblocked also by itself explains the conundrum of last night, right? Like, I'm not sure the idea DawningWinds is lying but Sike is not explains much of anything that's not explained by a roleblock on Sike. Pretty much just the fact then the mafia'd have had to originally target qva?

Mmmrhhh. I don't like this. I don't like the enthusiasm about killing someone who's claimed doctor, without it being an actual counterclaim situation. The mafia sure would be thrilled if that were the conclusion. I know I said it'd be convenient to sort Sike, but I also said lynching a doctor to get it done is not exactly ideal.

 

[Dragonfree]

Also why do we think the mafia probably has a strongman again? Originally when that came up I assumed that was on Negrek's list of roles in the signup thread and that was why we were talking about it, but I actually checked that today and it was not.

 

[Namohysip]

Check the later post https://forums.thousandroads.net/index.php?threads/first-anniversary-fanfic-mafia.329/post-3267

 

[DawningWinds]

Unvote: Sike Saner
Yeah, actually, I agree with Dragonfree, roleblocker makes more sense then fakeclaiming doc.

 

[elyvorg]

Hmm, yeah. Taken alone, it'd seem like only a 1/10 chance that Sike was roleblocked, but then there's also the odds that Sike and DawningWinds would put together this ridiculously elaborate risky roleclaim, and also the odds that Sike is managing to sound so completely genuine to me. Hunches aren't concrete, but they're evidence, too. It's definitely a much bigger chance than 1/10 that Sike's innocent here.

So, fuck it, if I have to use Author Power to twist Tefiren into voting something he doesn't want to, I can make some fun RP out of that, too, whatever.

Of qva's null pile, most of them I feel at least some tiny amount of good about, but there's one I've always been feeling just a tiny amount of not-good about, and that's NonAnalogue. I realise bringing this up less than an hour before a deadline is not ideal, but here we are.

Part of my vague suspicion was predicated on Sike being guilty, re how NonAnalogue tried to argue that none of the people involved in the Espeon clusterfuck are lying without bringing up the roleblocker possibility (sure, could also have been genuine misunderstanding; I did say this was very vague). But if I've decided Sike's innocent, that's not an issue.

Another part of my vague suspicion is the way she voted Desper, another doctor, for reasons that are really the most believable and reasonable part of Tanuki's actions today.

And part of it is from the fact that she was super actively helpful in last year's game, in which she was town, whereas in this one she hasn't been speaking up nearly as much - even before the thread got stupidly long. Maybe that's just real life matters getting in the way of her time, sure.

I said this suspicion was vague, but it's something more than I have for anyone else if I'm going to follow qva after all and try to shoot into this null pile of hers.

 

[kyeugh]

man fuck it

i feel like windskull is my biggest blindspot here so i’m going there. i would really like not to kill sike, and it seems others feel the same, so i think we need to talk about an alternative or it’s just going to default onto sike. this is my proposition tbh.

 

[kyeugh]

ninja moment

 

[Persephone]

First, what if we have seen a counterclaim? There were two docs last time, sure, but now there are so many power roles that I’m more skeptical that the claim is even accurate in the first place.

Second, after requesting a kill Espy then sharply walked back to “well, actually, no.” The initial kill request may not have been serious so much as a ploy. Not saying they necessarily thought it up, but a teammate might have. Godkill was a risk but she could presumably ask ‘grek in private beforehand.

What I’m saying is, if Sike flips town someone with an info roll might wanna check on her tonight. She wouldn’t necessarily be top of my scum list and truth be told even if Sike flips town I still think it’s more probable she’s actually genuine than not. But the circumstances... they really don’t look favorable to her.

 

[Dragonfree]

Ahhh, there we go, that's the missing link. Yeah, okay, strongman is pretty likely in that case, and theoretically Sike could have been trying to seed a strongman kill having been used already. Doesn't reeeally change my feelings, though.

 

[Tanuki]

Slightly less than one hour remains in Day 2. The vote stands thus:

5 Sike Saner - DawningWinds, Tanuki, Starlight Aurate, Persephone, elyvorg
1 Abstain - Sike Saner
1 DawningWinds - windskull
1 Namohysip - Equitia
1 Starlight Aurate - qva


Not Voting: Namohysip, Dragonfree, NonAnalogue, SparklingEspeon

I’m voting for DawningWinds, not Sike.

 

[Dragonfree]

Iiiiii'm kind of inclined to go Persephone because my vague impression so far has been she's been extra into the idea of lynching Sike, but ugh there's no time to properly reread

 

[elyvorg]

I'll add that if enough people want to get on qva's windskull vote to be able to actually save Sike in time if they get only one more, then I'd be willing to change my vote to windskull, too. You should be trusting qva more than me right now to not be a mafia "randomly" picking someone they know is actually innocent, because she's more or less confirmed innocent.

 

[DawningWinds]

Vote: Windskull
At the moment I'm actually inclined to believe Sike is probably town (man I change my mind fast), so to push the lynch elsewhere I'll jump on someone who my read is maybe 40% at highest (25%/average alignment rand at lowest) on but it's higher than Sike and there's a vote there. Basically, I don't want a no lynch and I don't want to lynch the doc.