Fall 2020 Mafia - Game Thread

[Waffle]

wait does bulletproof protect you more than once? I didn't know. My reasoning was that I should try to protect people who we collectively were pretty sure were innocent, because the mafia wouldn't kill somone who was sus so they could try to blame it one the other person. I didn't want to protect equitia twice in a row, so I was between espeon and phantump. It now seems that I should have tried espeon, or I guess that wouldn't have mattered if I was roleblocked

 

[windskull]

Excluding the fact that Persepohne is still kinda fishy to me (though less so than Tanuki and Phantump rn), right now I can see the following set of events with a tanuki/phantump setup:

N0: No one dies
N1: No one dies because phantump was blocked by DawningWinds
N2: No one dies because phantump did not target anyone, expecting to be watched by equita (and probably expecting equita to be protected, making it hard to kill without being caught). At this point they would know skipping was an option (due to me checking with starlight due to inactives. Whoops!) so it was a risky gambit, but doable.
N3: Espy is killed to get rid of a doctor/make it easier to kill other targets, since she's unlikely to be protected.

wait does bulletproof protect you more than once? I didn't know. My reasoning was that I should try to protect people who we collectively were pretty sure were innocent, because the mafia wouldn't kill somone who was sus so they could try to blame it one the other person. I didn't want to protect equitia twice in a row, so I was between espeon and phantump. It now seems that I should have tried espeon, or I guess that wouldn't have mattered if I was roleblocked

Depends on the game, though Shiny claimed that she hadn't had her bulletproof be hit yet (Which I admittedly speculated could have been faked to try and cause confusion with the mafia)

 

[Persephone]

Asked towards the end of the last day cycle. Yeah, I get eliminated as well. As much as I want town to go for Phant today, I doubt it happens because of that.

Tanuki seems like the safer kill, in any case. I doubt the mafia would just... not kill anyone. Unless there were three mafia, and they’d hoped to see DW day killed and then make a nightkill for parity. But if that’s the case, the game would be over, right? And I don’t think there would be an independent and three mafia in a game this size...

I have a bad feeling that there’s something we’re missing. Especially after three successive town jails.

 

[Equitial]

3. The game continues until either the mafia make up the majority of remaining players (meaning that they can control all day-votes) or the innocents successfully jail all of the mafia.

Mafia wins at majority, not parity.

 

[windskull]

Continuing on bulletproof from my above comment, last game the town bulletproof was oneshot, while the mafia was multishot. so yeah, depends on the setup, but typically there is a limit.

 

[windskull]

Mafia wins at majority, not parity.

So theoretically we could be at parity right now, though unlikely. Worth keeping in mind. If at parity, if we mislynch we lose today, but if we don't lynch we also lose because all they have to do is go after the doctor. If there's two mafia we can safely screw up - though obviously we don't want to do that.

 

[Equitial]

Speaking of Persephone disappearing if the killer is taken out, I think the options are narrowed down too much for that to be an issue, even if you assume no one innocent.

windskull (Shimmer) -- cannot be the mafia killer because he was unsuccessful N0 - kills were not allowed N0

Persephone (Kekoa) -- cannot be killer because the roleblocker was occupied, I got "no result", and a kill was made

Equitia (Ashwood) -- You're just going to have to trust me guys

Waffle (Luna) - Was roleblocked today, was on me yesterday and I didn't die

Tanuki (Desper) -- Was busy roleblocking

Shiny Phantump (Salac) -- Got "no result" when roleblockers were occupied N2, but there was no kill. The only explanation is that they abstained

 

[windskull]

That's more or less my thoughts too. The only alternative I can see is a Tanuki/Equita mafia, but that's such a huge stretch that I just don't see it working. It would, for the record, mean that tanuki and equita planned their claims on day one to appear more innocent, and then would also bank on them just happening to get the perfect lineup yesterday when nuki blocked dawning. It would also require them to purposefully block their own kill or risk getting tanuki caught in a lie on N1.

I mean, if somehow this galaxy brain play ends up being true, I'd be SHOOK. But regardless, even if it were true, Tanuki is implicated either way and is the safest lynch today.

 

[Tanuki]

To make their roleclaim, they would have to be in it with Tanuki and Waffle, but why would Tanuki have blocked his teammate? Um... to mark Waffle as innocent? No, wait, Tanuki wouldn't have blocked Windskull if they were on his team. Fusion/Del was a bus driver?

I mean, in this scenario, the whole thing could be a lie. I back up Windskull backs up Waffle backs up me. No one besides the three of us would've been in on it.

It's technically possible Wind and Waffle could be mafia with Wind as the killer, but that's not really worth consideration since I don't think any of Wind's info could've been deduced. In order for Wind and Waffle to be mafia at this point, they would need a third member to feed them info. Occam's razor would make that me, I guess, but I couldn't have known most of the stuff Wind revealed since it's very well established at this point that I am in fact a roleblocker.

Either way, I don't really think this is all that likely. The most plausible scenario for this in my mind is Wind, Waffle, Perse, where Waffle only knew I blocked them because they lied about being a doctor and is instead a mafia inforole. I really doubt this, though. It's too contrived to not have fucked up the story along the way.

I specifically told him to go to Persephone, and he admits she's his biggest scumread.

Honestly, I don't remember you telling me to block Perse, but again, I'm pretty sure her role is passive. I thought we'd established that, but maybe I just assumed as much.

2) If we lynch the mafia killer, Persephone will meet her win condition. Does she get removed from the game if that’s the case? (Some of the independent roles I saw while reading the wiki during lectures do that.) If so, we might not only have to keep lynching scum, but also ensure we get the killer last to that we keep Persephone on our side.

Honestly, why are we even pretending Perse's roleclaim is legit?

Asked towards the end of the last day cycle. Yeah, I get eliminated as well. As much as I want town to go for Phant today, I doubt it happens because of that.

Wouldn't an independent role win if their conditions were met? If your win condition is to kill the vigilante and Godfather, why would doing that eliminate you? Does the game not end if the independent wins? I thought that was the entire point of independent roles. This seems like a blatant lie that contradicts her own claims. Which brings me to

N0: No one dies
N1: No one dies because phantump was blocked by DawningWinds
N2: No one dies because phantump did not target anyone, expecting to be watched by equita (and probably expecting equita to be protected, making it hard to kill without being caught). At this point they would know skipping was an option (due to me checking with starlight due to inactives. Whoops!) so it was a risky gambit, but doable.
N3: Espy is killed to get rid of a doctor/make it easier to kill other targets, since she's unlikely to be protected.

I know that this scenario is me/Phan as mafia, but consider that two of the three main mafia suspects want me dead. If we mislynch with only two mafia, that would bring us to parity at a night when the mafia has a free kill, meaning they'd win the next morning. I think Phan and Perse are mafia, and that's why they're pushing to kill me.

Perse's win condition doesn't make sense going purely by what she's said of her own role. Phan is the most likely suspect for killer. If y'all kill me today, they win tonight.

 

[windskull]

It's technically possible Wind and Waffle could be mafia with Wind as the killer, but that's not really worth consideration since I don't think any of Wind's info could've been deduced. In order for Wind and Waffle to be mafia at this point, they would need a third member to feed them info. Occam's razor would make that me, I guess, but I couldn't have known most of the stuff Wind revealed since it's very well established at this point that I am in fact a roleblocker.

Except I couldn't be the killer unless Equita was lying about his claim. He saw me unsuccessfully make an action on N0, the night the killer wouldn't be able to move.

 

[Tanuki]

I was wondering why everyone suddenly decided Perse was innocent, but I'm guessing it's because I've been attacking her, and everyone assumes I have to be mafia. I really can't say anything at this point, can I? Y'all're just gonna follow Persephone right into the forum's first town loss.

 

[Tanuki]

Except I couldn't be the killer unless Equita was lying about his claim. He saw me unsuccessfully make an action on N0, the night the killer wouldn't be able to move.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. I felt like there was another reason you couldn't be killer, but I couldn't think of it at the time. My bad. At least I said the possibility wasn't worth consideration?

 

[Tanuki]

I know I did a bad job of it, but my point with that post wasn't to make Wind/Waffle mafia possible, but to debunk it. I was trying to point out how much of a stretch it was and how little it made sense. I was trying to clear them, not convict them. I'm probably talking to a void, but is it at least worth consideration that I'm the only suspect that's trying to clear people instead of kill them? Well, except Persephone, I guess, but Perse/Phant just makes the most sense to me.

Everything about Perse is convenient. She's an active role until someone could see if she used an action, and then she's a passive role—independent, too! Her role wants vigilante and Godfather dead until Phant's on the chopping block. I think I already said this, but why would she not want to meet her victory condition? Why would her victory condition eliminate her?

As far as I can tell skimming the wiki, independent roles winning usually makes the other teams lose. I saw a few that can become town or mafia, but none that stay independent but oh also it's okay we can work together and both win. Maybe I didn't look deep enough, but with how contrived her role seems, I don't understand why everyone's just taking her word for it.

If you're going to ignore everything I say because I have to be mafia, why are you listening to and going along with the other two suspects without any resistance?

 

[windskull]

I was wondering why everyone suddenly decided Perse was innocent, but I'm guessing it's because I've been attacking her, and everyone assumes I have to be mafia. I really can't say anything at this point, can I? Y'all're just gonna follow Persephone right into the forum's first town loss.

It's because equita cleared her of being the killer since she didn't do any action today. She could be mafia still, and I don't think anyone is denying that, but yourself and phantump are looking like safer lynches right now.

That said, do we want to go after Tanuki or phantump? Literally the only possible killer at this point is phantump, outside of the extremely convoluted equita/tanuki setup I mentioned. Phantump could be in cahoots with either Tanuki or Persephone (or theoretically both). But there is a minor chance that Tanuki really is town, however small. We kill him we're left with 5. If he's town, then the mafia kills waffle, probably, and we reach parity and the best chance we have of winning is a roll of the dice.

If we kill phantump, however, that still leaves us with 5. 4 if Persephone is telling the truth and she's ejected from the game when all killers are dead. in which case we'd have 3 the next morning when someone dies, we lynch either tanuki or persephone depending on the result and it's gg Town wins.

Tenatively switching my vote to Phantump, but if anyone else has any input I'm open to it. Either way I think we should either be going for Phantump or Tanuki and save the Persephone issue for the next day if necessary.

 

[Tanuki]

We kill him we're left with 5. If he's town, then the mafia kills waffle, probably, and we reach parity and the best chance we have of winning is a roll of the dice.

I'm not sure why you're going with the assumption there's only two mafia. Perhaps it's only a potentiality, but we have no way of knowing if there are two or three, and I feel like it's a lot safer to assume the latter. I'm not trying to implicate you or anything with the asinine claim that "you know there's only two mafia," because, as I've stated before, there's too many hoops to jump through for you to be scum. The only one more townlocked than you at this point is Equitial (but of course I'm biased for him 💛 ).

It's an extremely risky assumption, and we don't have any room for risk here. I know I'm tying my own noose with this since it's easy to sweep me into the three with Phan and Perse, but I genuinely think it's better to prepare for the worst than assume the best here.

 

[Tanuki]

Also, I read Starlight's role PM to me.

Was reading back and I just wanted to say this made me giggle.

 

[windskull]

At this rate we may not make it to 42 pages to tie the last game. Sad.

 

[Persephone]

Phantump, but only because I can't get a wagon going on Starlight :(

 

[Equitial]

Having a bit of a day, sorry if my thoughts are scattered, but I think we should definitely lynch Tanuki, not Phantump. We have six players left. I'm going to be and say two are Mafia. If we are right about Phantump, then we take out a mafia, but also lose an innocent, plus the probable innocent will be nightkilled. Sure, if there are two, that means we should be safe, but why take that risk? If three, that'll be a win for the mafia.

Also, I've been thinking... could Persephone be some kind of ninja? Idk, brain is noodles tonight, maybe that makes sense, maybe it doesn't. But I think it more likely that Tanuki is guilty than Phan, what with DW being town roleblocker and Tanuki blocking our healer. I think we should take out the more certain today.

I think our plan of action should be to vote out Tanuki, who has to be guilty at this point I think. Then @Waffle protects either me or Windskull -- do not say who and maybe choose at random. Windskull and I use our info-roles to sus out the killer. Hopefully, the mafia will lose its roleblocking ability with Tanuki. Then the mafia, whether they are one or two, will have three options: 1) take out an info-role, with a 50/50 chance of failure, 2) take out Waffle, knowing that we'll have, ahem, have eyes on them, or 3) take out Perse, whose innocence we won't have to debate next day (sorry for the coldness if you're innocent, Perse).

Whichever path the mafia take, there are advantages for town. So, unless you see some flaw in my logic, I am urging everyone vote for Tanuki.

(Also for RP purposes I have to go for Tanuki at this point.)

 

[Tanuki]

If we are right about Phantump, then we take out a mafia, but also lose an innocent, plus the probable innocent will be nightkilled. Sure, if there are two, that means we should be safe, but why take that risk? If three, that'll be a win for the mafia.

If there are two, why did Persephone specifically cultivate her role to the point of contradicting herself to kill me instead of Phan?