“Alright kiddos, listen up. I’m voting for Psyduck and you can’t stop me. Here’s why.”
((OOC: Wow, haha, wasn’t expecting everyone to be hanging on my words. Alright, here goes. I already made it pretty clear that I’ve been expecting the Mafia to talk more, not less. I’ve also been keeping a much closer eye on the people who, for lack of better words, seem to know what they’re doing. Now, I’m not saying that skilled players are suspect. That’s stupid. What I
am saying is that skilled players suddenly using weird/bad logic is
suspect as hell.
And there’s been a lot of that.
Go back and read all of Walrein’s posts, and the responses to them. There’s a running theme of “makes unexplained statement, implying that the conclusion is self-evident, when it isn’t remotely self-evident at all, and then no one questions it.”
Moving on to last night's target, I guess M&F has a point in that 5/12ths of us voted for Dave last night, so maybe we shouldn't try to read too much into the fact that Delirious Absol was one of them. Nevertheless, let's see where that road takes us. If we assume it was done to try to incriminate Dragonfree, wouldn't it make more sense to go after NonAnalogue, since they were the first person to vote for them? But if Dragonfree was the one ordering the hit, why choose one someone who already looked suspicious? Fear of "splitting the vote" between them and Umbramatic maybe?
Why would taking out Del incriminate Dragonfree? Conversely, where does Dragonfree ordering the hit come from and why would that split the vote with Umbra? Where does Umbra even factor into this? He hadn’t even been mentioned in the post yet.
Maybe it might be more productive to look at who wasn't eliminated last night. The Mafia could've cast a lot of suspicion on me by taking out M&F or Namohysip, or on one of them by taking out me. All of us are kind of unique in that we were only accused by one person or were the only person to accuse one other of us. It's possible that this was avoided due to either M&F or Namohysip being Mafia and not wanting to direct attention to that cluster.
What does this even mean. Why would taking out either of those two have put suspicion on him. Why is this said like it’s self-evident, and yet left completely unexplained?
Walrein spends a LOT of time implying why the Mafia chose to do certain things without explaining any of it.
The only conclusion I can come up with right now is that M&F, Namohysip, and Dragonfree all look a little more suspicious right now than they did last night, and I'd be a little hesitant to vote to jail Umbramatic at this point.
Where did this conclusion come from? This has nothing to do with the rest of his post. I have seen no evidence in favor OR against Umbra at this point.
TL:DR; Walrein talks a lot and all of it sounds useful at first glance, but manages to be vague and directionless on second read.
Credit where credit is due though. Walrein pointing out my bad logic on Day 1 made me trust him a bit more, for that moment. But then this happened:
since I've subsequently put the pressure on Walrein, the mafia might have figured that he'd become easy lynch bait if someone thought to use this post against him. at least, I suspect that it's a better bag to invest in than Dave, anyway, given that he's already clear in the eyes of quite a few players -- and if he's mafia himself, which, however inconvenient for me, is still very much a possibility, he'd want to push the spotlight on someone else.
if I'm onto something, this tells us........ not much, actually, but it does clear Walrein.
This gave me pause. I’ve been very vocal about trusting MF thus far. But this made no sense. What about this clears Walrein? If anything, this is the same kind of post Walrein has been making: ostensibly self-evident conclusion based solely on guessing how the Mafia might do things that isn’t supported by anything else anyone has said.
Fast forward to today. Suddenly there’s a Lachlan dogpile and it is way, way, way too convenient. When it gets questioned, it gets doubled down on in a really unnatural fashion.
Still, I'm pretty sure that if someone wanted to try to cast suspicion on me, they'd would've simply eliminated M&F or Namohysip, so I'm pretty sure M&F's theory is incorrect.
Why is this still being treated as self-evident.
But here’s the post that scared me:
also, guys, when I point out something the mafia may have been trying to get the town to do, the correct response is not to go ahead and do it]]
MF completely ignored all of Walrein’s weird logic. I’ve been sitting here going “ok what is any of this, is no one else seeing this?” And I was eagerly awaiting MF calling bs on Walrein because hey, a skilled player would do that, right? But then that didn’t happen. Instead, we got a doubling down on Walrein being cleared by the non-evidence from yesterday! WTF??!!!
But then… then I had a moment of horror.
And I’m sure you’ve realized why. The reason I trusted MF was because of the super-risky “vouching for Dave” gambit. There was a moment here where I suddenly feared that we were facing a Mafia roster of
Walrein, MF, and Dragonfree and if you don’t find that idea
bloody terrifying then I don’t know what to say. (Important note: Dragonfree’s subsequent post sated these fears somewhat. Dragonfree questioned the weird logic even though it would have been very easy to just wait for my post.) And I still very much want to trust MF, for what it’s worth.
But. Even after all that, this is all speculation. I technically didn’t have any real proof. I reread all the posts and said to myself, “ok, this looks bad, but hey… Walrein might be throwing shade at inactives, but at least he hasn’t targeted Sike.”
Literally. Five. Minutes. Later. He voted for Sike. That was the icing on the cake. And if you’re unsure why, I encourage you to read all the posts.
NOTEWORTHY FLAW: MF cast shade on Walrein Day 1. That’s a pretty big hole in my fear that they’re working together (and a point in favor of MF.) Granted, it was a pretty wimpy accusation, and could have easily been used to make the two look less like they were working together, but it’s still worth saying.
And yes, there are a million other counterarguments. I know. Any one of those things up there isn’t damning in the slightest.
It’s all of them combined.
And if you want to know what emboldened me to say all this? It was the realization that I’m
probably not the mafia convert. Up to this point, I was cautious because that was still very much a possibility. I’m now, based on something that was said today, reasonably convinced that I’m not. I can’t say why without putting an unrelated innocent at risk, though.))