Umbramatic
The Ghost Lord
"I did not act on night zero. I wasn't sure of the threat level then."
[INNOCENTS WIN] Grand Opening Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread
- Thread starter Negrek
- Start date
- Pronouns
- she/her
- Partners
-
"I'm not sure I understand the advantage in not healing night zero. Worst case, nothing happens. Best case, you save someone. Just like any other night, only with less information available. Could it be that, as someone unsure whether a healer would be able to act night zero, you were just waiting for my response so you could model your own from it? Eheheh."
Loki (Unspecified Protector Role)
- N0: none
- N1: Karo
- N2: Starr
- N3: Dave (Landed on Starr)
- N0: Loki
- N1: none
- N2: Starr
- N3: Starr (Landed on Dave)
“Alright. A lotta shit has gone down today. I’ve sat on the sidelines for a lot of it. Time to get my hands dirty. I’m gonna lay out what I think are some of the most important issues that came up today. Weird stuff, inconsistencies, suspicion, stuff like that.”
Issue #1 Cabot vs Hecto?
Hecto reluctantly voted for Cabot, not out of suspicion for him, but out of process of elimination. In retaliation, Cabot decided to scrutinize Hecto’s posts closely for signs of foul play. The discussion reached an uneasy ceasefire, though Cabot has yet to reveal his most critical piece of evidence.
For the record, I’m not reading either of them as mafia. Their debate is tripping all my ‘innocent vs innocent’ instincts. But I’ll wait until Cabot reveals his trump card to pass my final judgement.
Issue #2: Two protectors?
Loki and Lachlan have both claimed a protector role, and both cast votes for each other.
Questions to be answered:
- How likely is it that we legit have two protectors?
- If one of them is lying, which one?
If Loki is lying, then does that make them mafia, or just a troll? If they are mafia, why did their action not kill me? Can they really perform a killing action and a mafia power in the same night? If so, what power could they have? Why did they investigate as innocent? Being a godfather wouldn’t give them a nonlethal action to target me with.
Issue #3: Mia the recruit?
I really, really feel like we need to be talking about this.
My case against Mia revolved around actions of hers across both days 2 and 3. But Hecto investigated Mia night 2, and found her to be innocent. This is a huge problem, and there are only four solutions to it:
- Hecto is lying and did not inspect Mia.
- Hecto is a naive cop. Mia was original mafia and an invisible killer.
- Mia was the recruit. She did not kill Karo, Dave did, and I saw him.
- Mia was the recruit. She did not kill Karo, an invisible killer did.
So, is Hecto a naive cop? Maaaaayyyybe? I don’t know. I can’t decide how likely that is. It would certainly be inconvenient for us. But I do have to acknowledge that I’m biased. Of course I want to believe that Mia was OG mafia. After all, that was the basis of my entire case against her. But… it would explain why Mia was so angry when I confronted her. It would mean I caught her for the wrong reasons—that would undoubtedly be frustrating.
If Hecto is not a naive cop, then we absolutely have to revisit everything from Day 3 to determine if Dave is guilty. We cannot just bank on it being a different silent killer. We need to address this.
I understand that everyone else is more invested in issues #1 and #2 right now. And that’s fair. But if we follow those trains and it leads to a mislynch tonight, then I’m expecting some damn good scrutiny on this issue tomorrow.
- Partners
-
With a small wash of guarded relief--something Hecto did not realize was possible to feel--he gave a slow, uneasy nod to Starr and the explanation given out between her and her guardian. "I had brushed upon this during my original explanation, I believe. Well, my spirit and I have. The idea that Dave could potentially be mafia, or at least, the possibility that he would be using his redirect abilities to throw us off. Perhaps that's why it only works half of the time?"
((It's been on my mind, but it's such a risk, too... But to be honest, everyone here has a potentially useful power--and Cabot, maybe, too, depending on what he's got.))
"Nobody here is fully clear of suspicion," Hecto said, "but recent revelations have... certainly put things into perspective a bit more. I want to still have faith in my power, but again, I have little else to go by. That being said..." Hecto hummed. "Issues two and three concern me the most, particularly two. Perhaps there is a balance of a double-doctor kill, but then, why did it not happen? That doesn't quite add up, either."
((Also, I have another odd thought after looking over Starr's bullet points. It doesn't look like I was affected by any of the swaps or redirects when I performed my searches--but Starr, check out night 3. Could it be possible that your inspections could be redirected, too? Look at this:
On night three:
Mel swapped Starr and Dave
Dave redirected from Mel to Ess
Starr saw Mel and Loki.
Loki tried to heal Dave, but went to Starr.
According to the manual, inspections happen last, after all other swaps and redirects take place--since it doesn't actually affect anything. If Mel swapped Starr and Dave... does that mean Starr, instead of inspecting herself, actually inspected Dave? Wait, hang on, I'm getting confused again...))
"Let me try and state it again for you: If Mel swapped Starr and Dave, and then Starr inspects herself, Starr would technically have to be inspecting Dave instead. However, Loki claims to have healed Dave, thus landing on Starr due to the swap. Loki should not have been seen by Starr, if Starr was actually inspecting Dave; they were swapped."
((So, according to the manual, there's a line here... That there is no consensus for a "bus driver's" effect being something informed by the targets -- that's Mel, a swapper. In other words, it's not necessarily true that Starr would be told that her targets were switched. That implies, however, that investigative roles such as mine or Starr's CAN be swapped. Implying that Starr's readings were swapped on day 3, and she wasn't told!))
"The other time Starr saw Mel was also when she inspected herself. Mel swapped Starr and Psyduck; Starr actually inspected Psyduck, but since Mel also affected her... of course she would still see Mel." Hecto's eyes brightened slightly. "...But what does this mean?"
((It means that there's a contradiction. If Starr's inspection was swapped to Dave on night 3, then that means Loki actually targeted Starr that night, got swapped to Dave, and that's how Starr saw Loki. But Dave isn't gone... Why not?
...There's one power that we haven't seen yet. In a game where everyone seems to have abilities, why is it that we don't have a suppressor? Someone who can nullify someone else's power. What if Loki was trying to stop Starr from inspecting everyone, while picking off Mel?
No, that won't work. Because that means Dave's power would have been suppressed. Unless Ess was targeted intentionally, thinking that maybe he had a secret power even more devastating than Starr's, Mel's or Dave's?
I--I need some input here. Tick tock, but my head feels full. I'm running on the night 3 swap on Starr's inspection, which, at least according to the manual, seems to be the case. Actions that affect other actions happen first; investigators usually go last... meaning that we're undoubtedly swappable. Right?))
((It's been on my mind, but it's such a risk, too... But to be honest, everyone here has a potentially useful power--and Cabot, maybe, too, depending on what he's got.))
"Nobody here is fully clear of suspicion," Hecto said, "but recent revelations have... certainly put things into perspective a bit more. I want to still have faith in my power, but again, I have little else to go by. That being said..." Hecto hummed. "Issues two and three concern me the most, particularly two. Perhaps there is a balance of a double-doctor kill, but then, why did it not happen? That doesn't quite add up, either."
((Also, I have another odd thought after looking over Starr's bullet points. It doesn't look like I was affected by any of the swaps or redirects when I performed my searches--but Starr, check out night 3. Could it be possible that your inspections could be redirected, too? Look at this:
On night three:
Mel swapped Starr and Dave
Dave redirected from Mel to Ess
Starr saw Mel and Loki.
Loki tried to heal Dave, but went to Starr.
According to the manual, inspections happen last, after all other swaps and redirects take place--since it doesn't actually affect anything. If Mel swapped Starr and Dave... does that mean Starr, instead of inspecting herself, actually inspected Dave? Wait, hang on, I'm getting confused again...))
"Let me try and state it again for you: If Mel swapped Starr and Dave, and then Starr inspects herself, Starr would technically have to be inspecting Dave instead. However, Loki claims to have healed Dave, thus landing on Starr due to the swap. Loki should not have been seen by Starr, if Starr was actually inspecting Dave; they were swapped."
((So, according to the manual, there's a line here... That there is no consensus for a "bus driver's" effect being something informed by the targets -- that's Mel, a swapper. In other words, it's not necessarily true that Starr would be told that her targets were switched. That implies, however, that investigative roles such as mine or Starr's CAN be swapped. Implying that Starr's readings were swapped on day 3, and she wasn't told!))
"The other time Starr saw Mel was also when she inspected herself. Mel swapped Starr and Psyduck; Starr actually inspected Psyduck, but since Mel also affected her... of course she would still see Mel." Hecto's eyes brightened slightly. "...But what does this mean?"
((It means that there's a contradiction. If Starr's inspection was swapped to Dave on night 3, then that means Loki actually targeted Starr that night, got swapped to Dave, and that's how Starr saw Loki. But Dave isn't gone... Why not?
...There's one power that we haven't seen yet. In a game where everyone seems to have abilities, why is it that we don't have a suppressor? Someone who can nullify someone else's power. What if Loki was trying to stop Starr from inspecting everyone, while picking off Mel?
No, that won't work. Because that means Dave's power would have been suppressed. Unless Ess was targeted intentionally, thinking that maybe he had a secret power even more devastating than Starr's, Mel's or Dave's?
I--I need some input here. Tick tock, but my head feels full. I'm running on the night 3 swap on Starr's inspection, which, at least according to the manual, seems to be the case. Actions that affect other actions happen first; investigators usually go last... meaning that we're undoubtedly swappable. Right?))
Virgil134
PMD Writer
- Partners
-
((Now that we're theorizing, I think there's something important I want to share that I initially wanted to bring up while cross examining Hecto. Namely why I don’t believe in the possibility that Hecto is a Naive Cop. I did some research into the role myself, and it seems to be rarely present in smaller games, because the Cop likely won’t have enough results to reasonably determine that he’s naive. Given that we started out with 12 people, I think it’s fair to say that this counts as a small game. Another reason why I don't think there’s a Naive Cop is because everyone here seems to have gotten some sort of fancy power to be more special. You know, to fit with the whole fan fic theme. It just seems highly unlikely to me that Hecto would be the only one to receive a useless ability, especially since everyone's role so far has turned out to be something useful. Because of that I believe we should rule out the possibility that he’s a Naive Cop. Either he's a real Cop and Mia really was the covert, he's Mafia and lying about everything, or someone else's role is interfering with his abilities.))
- Partners
-
((Cabot's guardian... brings up a pretty good point, actually. I mean, from a meta standpoint, I don't really know what a small game counts as, but this felt larger than the ones I usually did. So I guess that's one reason why it seemed possible to have a naive cop. I mean, after all, Dave claims to have something that only works 50% of the time! So... it didn't seem out of the question.
That being said, if Hecto and I are NOT naive cops... what's going on with what I just said about Loki? Unless someone actually is misdirecting us, just like Starr had been swapped... unless I'm misunderstanding the meta.))
That being said, if Hecto and I are NOT naive cops... what's going on with what I just said about Loki? Unless someone actually is misdirecting us, just like Starr had been swapped... unless I'm misunderstanding the meta.))
NonAnalogue
Losing her head
- Location
- Yes
- Pronouns
- she/her
"Okay, look." Repeat hopped down off of Mel's shoulder. "I think Starr made a really good point that we need to make sure that we pay attention to. And since Chief isn't up to it right now, I'll take point. I don't know what's going on here any more than she does, but I don't intend to let some... some whatevers get one up on me without a fight. So here we go."
Repeat began pacing in the only way a Ditto could, i.e., slowly and unevenly. "There's one power that's been described so far that is a clear outlier from the rest. One that would be a perfect one for a mafia to say they have. I'm, of course, talking about Dave's." Repeat turned to Dave, an unreadable expression on his face. "Dave, I really do hate to do this, especially if you were telling the truth about protecting us last night. But your power... the fact that it has a 50% percent failure rate means that you automatically have a built-in failsafe for if your claims get called out. Let's pretend that, some night, you make a claim that you redirected away from someone. But then it comes out that the chain of logic doesn't hold - nobody else's actions over the night line up with yours. Well then, you can just say your action 'failed'. It's the perfect cover, especially if you get noticed lurking around someone who eventually disappears, like Karo."
"Now, that said," Repeat continued, "I'm not saying that Dave is the only suspicious one here. I'm really not 100% on anyone, which is I guess by design. Especially if we assume that both mafia members we've found so far have been original recipe, we might still have a recruit out there, which may make all of our assumptions void anyway. But I'm fairly certain that Starr is on the up and up, and Loki's actions were verified by her too, so I'm less inclined to have a go at them. I must say, though; I'd heard of this game before, although with much lower stakes - a flock of Murkrow I knew were really into playing it - and I've never heard of mafia members having powers other than straight-up killing. If we assume that the mafia can do other things like all of you are saying, it makes everything way more complicated."
He looked up in a vaguely skywards direction. "And it hasn't escaped my notice that, with all these 'guardian spirits', we don't seem to have one. Or if we do, that they aren't speaking up very often. I've occasionally heard a whispered voice, right over Mel's other shoulder, but... Maybe I was imagining it. And I... I don't know what that means for us. But no matter what, I'm not going to let anything happen to Boss while I'm here."
Repeat began pacing in the only way a Ditto could, i.e., slowly and unevenly. "There's one power that's been described so far that is a clear outlier from the rest. One that would be a perfect one for a mafia to say they have. I'm, of course, talking about Dave's." Repeat turned to Dave, an unreadable expression on his face. "Dave, I really do hate to do this, especially if you were telling the truth about protecting us last night. But your power... the fact that it has a 50% percent failure rate means that you automatically have a built-in failsafe for if your claims get called out. Let's pretend that, some night, you make a claim that you redirected away from someone. But then it comes out that the chain of logic doesn't hold - nobody else's actions over the night line up with yours. Well then, you can just say your action 'failed'. It's the perfect cover, especially if you get noticed lurking around someone who eventually disappears, like Karo."
"Now, that said," Repeat continued, "I'm not saying that Dave is the only suspicious one here. I'm really not 100% on anyone, which is I guess by design. Especially if we assume that both mafia members we've found so far have been original recipe, we might still have a recruit out there, which may make all of our assumptions void anyway. But I'm fairly certain that Starr is on the up and up, and Loki's actions were verified by her too, so I'm less inclined to have a go at them. I must say, though; I'd heard of this game before, although with much lower stakes - a flock of Murkrow I knew were really into playing it - and I've never heard of mafia members having powers other than straight-up killing. If we assume that the mafia can do other things like all of you are saying, it makes everything way more complicated."
He looked up in a vaguely skywards direction. "And it hasn't escaped my notice that, with all these 'guardian spirits', we don't seem to have one. Or if we do, that they aren't speaking up very often. I've occasionally heard a whispered voice, right over Mel's other shoulder, but... Maybe I was imagining it. And I... I don't know what that means for us. But no matter what, I'm not going to let anything happen to Boss while I'm here."
"Goddamn it, the moment I think I understand how that Ditto's power works, I wind up getting it wrong." Starr grabs her forehead, taking a deep breath. "Okay, so... yeah. Sounds like I actually saw everything that was happening around Dave on Night 3. Loki wound up near Dave. Which means they started out near me."
Her unimpressed gaze slides over to the Zygarde. "So, any particular reason you're trying to screw with us? I don't even think you're mafia. There's too many hoops to jump through. Hecto's investigation. Dave still being alive. There'd have to be like three of us lying for you to be mafia. So what the hell is your deal?"
"As for a mafia getting to screw with us and kill someone in the same night..." Starr grabs the manual that Hecto was reading and flips through its pages. She'd had a copy of her own, but had torn it up after staying up all night reading it one too many times. "Says here that 'A Mafia Roleblocker may or may not be allowed to perform the Mafia kill on the same Night they are also performing a roleblock. (This applies to other Mafia roles as well.) The decision of whether to allow the last Mafioso to kill and use their role at the same time is usually based on what would make the game better-balanced.'"
"So, it's still up in the air. Kinda doubting Loki can block us, though. None of the actions that I outlined in that chart I made seem to have failed (except for Dave's, obviously). Also, there's still the part where they investigated as innocent. And as much as I really, really didn't want to admit it..." Starr sighs. "Hecto's probably not a naive cop."
Her unimpressed gaze slides over to the Zygarde. "So, any particular reason you're trying to screw with us? I don't even think you're mafia. There's too many hoops to jump through. Hecto's investigation. Dave still being alive. There'd have to be like three of us lying for you to be mafia. So what the hell is your deal?"
"As for a mafia getting to screw with us and kill someone in the same night..." Starr grabs the manual that Hecto was reading and flips through its pages. She'd had a copy of her own, but had torn it up after staying up all night reading it one too many times. "Says here that 'A Mafia Roleblocker may or may not be allowed to perform the Mafia kill on the same Night they are also performing a roleblock. (This applies to other Mafia roles as well.) The decision of whether to allow the last Mafioso to kill and use their role at the same time is usually based on what would make the game better-balanced.'"
"So, it's still up in the air. Kinda doubting Loki can block us, though. None of the actions that I outlined in that chart I made seem to have failed (except for Dave's, obviously). Also, there's still the part where they investigated as innocent. And as much as I really, really didn't want to admit it..." Starr sighs. "Hecto's probably not a naive cop."
- Pronouns
- she/her
- Partners
-
"Naive? Probably not. I also agree that it's unlikely that Loki's been blocking and killing at once. The likelihood that they're a godfather is nonzero, though. Is it possible someone else, maybe someone who's now dead, was a roleblocker instead?"
- Partners
-
((Time is running short. Dave is a bit of an unknown at the moment, but we need to her from Loki next. Also, Cabot? Uhh—not much time left. You gonna talk about that... whatever it is you wanted to bring up? The theatrics are kinda cutting it close, here!))
Starr stares. "Uh. No. The only way Loki is a godfather is if we have four mafia, not three. If Loki is a godfather, then they don't have a nonlethal action. It also means they can't be a silent killer, which means they didn't kill Karo, which puts us right back where we started."
"And yeah, I get it... technically it's possible that there were four mafia, not three. But whoever trapped us all in here clearly wanted to get some kinda sick entertainment value out of it, and it'd be way less entertaining if the sides weren't at least somewhat evenly matched. Four mafia would pretty much require all of us to play fucking flawlessly have a shot of getting out alive."
"And yeah, I get it... technically it's possible that there were four mafia, not three. But whoever trapped us all in here clearly wanted to get some kinda sick entertainment value out of it, and it'd be way less entertaining if the sides weren't at least somewhat evenly matched. Four mafia would pretty much require all of us to play fucking flawlessly have a shot of getting out alive."
((Hecto is right. Cabot, please conclude your case. I don't suspect you, and it can only help us find a real suspect. And just so everyone knows, I'm not voting for Loki, because while they're sure as hell not trustworthy, there are just too many reasons why they can't be mafia.))
((I mean, technically there's nothing stopping Negrek from deciding a mafia member both inspects as innocent and has is a roleblocker... but I agree that it's not very likely.
I'm not going to be around at the end of the day; going to a concert that starts about an hour before. I too would really like to hear what Cabot has to say as soon as possible. If anyone's got questions for me in particular, ask them now.))
I'm not going to be around at the end of the day; going to a concert that starts about an hour before. I too would really like to hear what Cabot has to say as soon as possible. If anyone's got questions for me in particular, ask them now.))
((...oh crap. I don't wanna drop my next post while you're gone. That'd just be... not cool. I'll try to hurry it out.))
Virgil134
PMD Writer
- Partners
-
“I’m just so confused…” Cabot murmured.
((It’s not any easier for us authors either I’m afraid. After you got accused it seemed obvious that Hecto was the last Mafia member, but I’m honestly not sure anymore.))
“Well… maybe you could say what my role is then?” the Cranidos asked. “I’d still really like to know and I think Hecto and Starr’s… authors or whatever are right that we’re running out of time.”
((Very well, I’ll try to keep it as brief as possible then. So, because everyone got a special role it’s logical to assume that someone here is a Role Cop. It’s not that uncommon of a role and it would make sense given the powers everyone got. This is usually a Mafia member, but it doesn’t always have to be. Your role, Cabot, is called “One-Shot Bulletproof”. It would basically ensure that when you’d normally be eliminated during the night, you’d survive instead, but it can only happen once. I don’t know how things would play out exactly if this got triggered; maybe you would have fought off your attacker, or maybe you somehow would have resisted whatever method the Mafia use to make people disappear through sheer determination. Regardless, it means that if you are targeted during the night, nobody disappears. Or at least, for one time only.
I still believe that there’s only 1 Mafia member left, so if this member would find out about Cabot’s role, he’d logically try to set him up during the day. In a 1 vs 6 situation, that member simply can’t afford a night where nobody disappears, so he would do whatever he can to get Cabot jailed. As for how this member would know about Cabot’s role in the first place, that’s where the Role Cop comes in. I can see two potential situations here:
1. Psyduck was the Role Cop and discovered Cabot’s role early on. This information was shared with her fellow Mafia members, which would explain how the final member would know about Cabot’s role. This would also explain how Walrein knew about Karo or why he mentioned my name alongside Sike’s.
2. The convert was a Role Cop for the Town and discovered Cabot’s role before being converted. This means he’s simply using the info from before his conversion to his advantage. This assumes that the final member left is indeed the convert.
This is also why I was convinced that you were the final Mafia member Hecto. Not out of spite or I because I felt a “NO U!” situation was appropriate, but because you did exactly what the last remaining Mafia member would need to do in order to win. You said yourself we should look if people were acting any different between the first two days and now, and frankly you were. You mentioned how Cabot had trouble deciding who to vote for, but if there’s anyone who always had trouble deciding who to vote, it’s you. Yet today you voted very early on and for Cabot, which would match up with the scenario I just described. So I hope you and Noah understand don’t really blame me for suspecting you in return.))
((It’s not any easier for us authors either I’m afraid. After you got accused it seemed obvious that Hecto was the last Mafia member, but I’m honestly not sure anymore.))
“Well… maybe you could say what my role is then?” the Cranidos asked. “I’d still really like to know and I think Hecto and Starr’s… authors or whatever are right that we’re running out of time.”
((Very well, I’ll try to keep it as brief as possible then. So, because everyone got a special role it’s logical to assume that someone here is a Role Cop. It’s not that uncommon of a role and it would make sense given the powers everyone got. This is usually a Mafia member, but it doesn’t always have to be. Your role, Cabot, is called “One-Shot Bulletproof”. It would basically ensure that when you’d normally be eliminated during the night, you’d survive instead, but it can only happen once. I don’t know how things would play out exactly if this got triggered; maybe you would have fought off your attacker, or maybe you somehow would have resisted whatever method the Mafia use to make people disappear through sheer determination. Regardless, it means that if you are targeted during the night, nobody disappears. Or at least, for one time only.
I still believe that there’s only 1 Mafia member left, so if this member would find out about Cabot’s role, he’d logically try to set him up during the day. In a 1 vs 6 situation, that member simply can’t afford a night where nobody disappears, so he would do whatever he can to get Cabot jailed. As for how this member would know about Cabot’s role in the first place, that’s where the Role Cop comes in. I can see two potential situations here:
1. Psyduck was the Role Cop and discovered Cabot’s role early on. This information was shared with her fellow Mafia members, which would explain how the final member would know about Cabot’s role. This would also explain how Walrein knew about Karo or why he mentioned my name alongside Sike’s.
2. The convert was a Role Cop for the Town and discovered Cabot’s role before being converted. This means he’s simply using the info from before his conversion to his advantage. This assumes that the final member left is indeed the convert.
This is also why I was convinced that you were the final Mafia member Hecto. Not out of spite or I because I felt a “NO U!” situation was appropriate, but because you did exactly what the last remaining Mafia member would need to do in order to win. You said yourself we should look if people were acting any different between the first two days and now, and frankly you were. You mentioned how Cabot had trouble deciding who to vote for, but if there’s anyone who always had trouble deciding who to vote, it’s you. Yet today you voted very early on and for Cabot, which would match up with the scenario I just described. So I hope you and Noah understand don’t really blame me for suspecting you in return.))
((....ogod I just finished my post but Cabot's post changes everything aaaaaghhhhhhh. I wanna take time to read it, to take it all in.))
((Argh, screw it, I'm making the post anyway. Sorry everyone. I swear I'll give an opinion on Cabot's post soon.))
Starr stands at the front of the room and takes a deep breath. “Saying it straight out: I don’t have an ironclad guilty read on anyone. My vote is gonna be solely by process-of-elimination, starting from most likely to be innocent and working down. Sometimes, figuring out who to trust is not as important as figuring out who NOT to trust.”
Mel: 100% - I have no suspicions of Mel whatsoever. Mel’s swap action has consistently checked out both before and after day 3. It was her targeting me that led me to realize—as early as day 2—that I wasn’t gonna get converted. Her motivations for voting Dave over Mia yesterday feel thoroughly pro-innocent. She’s consistently tried to get to the bottom of things, and none of her posts have ever tripped a manipulating or distracting flag.
Hecto: 80% - I already mentioned why I don’t think Psyduck would have pointlessly cast suspicion on the recruit when it would serve zero purpose for earning our trust, aka, the number one reason to get your fellow mafia killed. All of Hecto’s earlygame posts check out when combined with his rollclaim. The agenda behind his posts consistently reads as pro-innocent. Even his debate with Cabot doesn’t read as trying to get an innocent jailed. He arrived at Cabot by process of elimination, and was openly looking to be proven wrong. I’ll be honest, I was running low on people to suspect and found my mind drifting idly toward Cabot as well (at least, until Cabot spoke up). It doesn’t seem malicious to me. ((NOTE: this needs to be updated for Cabot’s latest post.))
Cabot: 75% - Look, I admit that going into today, I had a weak read on Cabot. The fact that he was acting mostly alone, without his author, made things difficult. I think he reacted a bit excessively to Hecto’s vote, given that Hecto was just at a loss to who was suspicious and had nowhere else to turn. But I’m not reading malice. Everything about his posts reads as someone genuinely trying to find inconsistencies in what Hecto said. ((NOTE: this needs to be updated for Cabot’s latest post.))
Loki: 70% - For them to be mafia, we have to assume that (1) they’re not the recruit, so (2) they have some kind of nonlethal mafia power, and (3) that they’re allowed to both kill and use that power in the same night, possibly due to being the last one standing. Also either Hecto is naive cop or Loki also gets godfather on top of everything else. That’s just a humongous pile of unlikely circumstances. They’re not trustworthy, but I’m just having a hard time figuring out how they even could be mafia.
Lachlan: 60% - At the start of the day, I felt mostly okay about Lachlan. The fighting between Mia and Lachlan doesn't read as scum vs scum at all. And the fight kept the exact same tone across day 2 and 3, so I wasn’t chalking that up to any recruit business. And it would be pretty stupid for the mafia to initiate such heavy suspicion at their recruit, aka, their trump card. Lachlan’s posts were instrumental to me realizing Mia was mafia. Lachlan suspecting Loki after both Hecto and I had given Loki a weak clear doesn’t read as scum jumping on an opportunistic lynch at all. And claiming a protective role at that point was very much not the path of least resistance--another point against it being scum-motivated.
But also there are some things that make me leery of Lachlan. He’s still fixated on Loki, despite most of us agreeing that Loki being mafia doesn’t make any sense. But he hasn’t brought up arguments to the contrary either. I also wanted his input on whether Mia seemed like the recruit or not, and he didn’t say anything, even though I would think that was very relevant to his situation. And his last few posts have felt weirdly distracting; while the rest of us are scrambling to unravel this web of confusion, it’s almost like he doesn’t care.
It’s not nearly enough for me to feel comfortable making a case against him right now. But it still makes me wary. If both he and I are still around tomorrow, I will be scrutinizing him closely.
Dave: ??% - I’ve been having a very, very difficult time getting a read on Dave. Either innocent or guilty. Sure, there have been situations surrounding Dave that seemed to point toward either innocence or guilt (at the time). But his tone, his intent, his interactions, his agenda. All the messy, subjective stuff. I can’t read it. His redirects have consistently managed to not interact with Mel’s swap in any meaningful way, making them hard to verify (assuming they even worked), and the only time I got a watch on him was with Karo. I chalked that up to Mia being the silent killer, but Hecto’s investigation cast doubt on that.
And… something there’s something else bothering me. When I started closing in on Mia, she made no real attempt at all to point us at anyone else. Did you notice that? The only thing that could’ve saved her at that point was convincing us to jail someone else. And the only remotely feasible target was Dave. But she didn’t even try. She could’ve tried to screw him over to look good in our eyes. But I think she was already too fargone at that point. Bussing him wouldn’t have helped because she was more suspicious than him. But… if she instead just took the fall in order to make sure that he’d fly under the radar… he already had a pretty good alibi. Hell, we just straight up forgot about the Karo thing for most of the day.”
“I didn’t want to believe Dave is lying because that would’ve required some kinda god-tier prediction on his part to make everything line up perfectly. And making up the 50% redirect thing is like… why the hell make up such a weird-ass lie? But what if it’s not a lie? What if that really is his power. Mafia Redirectors exist. It’d be pretty damn easy to tell a story that was mostly truthful, but tweaking one or two details. And it would automatically be supported by everything he’d said or done up ‘til this point.”
“This is the point where I’d like to make a bigass case for why Dave is guilty. But I can’t do that. I don’t have a read on him. This is just process of elimination. I’m not voting for Mel, Hecto, Cabot, or Loki, period. Lachlan’s situation is weird, but not enough for me to feel comfortable voting for him (yet). Dave is the only one left. The only way he’s innocent is if Hecto is a naive cop (or if Loki is a ninja+godfather+other), and even then, that just shifts the goalposts toward him being the recruit instead of OG mafia, (which would honestly explain why I can’t get a read on him).”
“But if process of elimination isn’t enough, then let’s run risk/reward on if I’m wrong:
((And this was where I was GOING TO vote for Dave, but asdf I need to examine Cabot’s post aaaaaaaaa.))
Starr stands at the front of the room and takes a deep breath. “Saying it straight out: I don’t have an ironclad guilty read on anyone. My vote is gonna be solely by process-of-elimination, starting from most likely to be innocent and working down. Sometimes, figuring out who to trust is not as important as figuring out who NOT to trust.”
Mel: 100% - I have no suspicions of Mel whatsoever. Mel’s swap action has consistently checked out both before and after day 3. It was her targeting me that led me to realize—as early as day 2—that I wasn’t gonna get converted. Her motivations for voting Dave over Mia yesterday feel thoroughly pro-innocent. She’s consistently tried to get to the bottom of things, and none of her posts have ever tripped a manipulating or distracting flag.
Hecto: 80% - I already mentioned why I don’t think Psyduck would have pointlessly cast suspicion on the recruit when it would serve zero purpose for earning our trust, aka, the number one reason to get your fellow mafia killed. All of Hecto’s earlygame posts check out when combined with his rollclaim. The agenda behind his posts consistently reads as pro-innocent. Even his debate with Cabot doesn’t read as trying to get an innocent jailed. He arrived at Cabot by process of elimination, and was openly looking to be proven wrong. I’ll be honest, I was running low on people to suspect and found my mind drifting idly toward Cabot as well (at least, until Cabot spoke up). It doesn’t seem malicious to me. ((NOTE: this needs to be updated for Cabot’s latest post.))
Cabot: 75% - Look, I admit that going into today, I had a weak read on Cabot. The fact that he was acting mostly alone, without his author, made things difficult. I think he reacted a bit excessively to Hecto’s vote, given that Hecto was just at a loss to who was suspicious and had nowhere else to turn. But I’m not reading malice. Everything about his posts reads as someone genuinely trying to find inconsistencies in what Hecto said. ((NOTE: this needs to be updated for Cabot’s latest post.))
Loki: 70% - For them to be mafia, we have to assume that (1) they’re not the recruit, so (2) they have some kind of nonlethal mafia power, and (3) that they’re allowed to both kill and use that power in the same night, possibly due to being the last one standing. Also either Hecto is naive cop or Loki also gets godfather on top of everything else. That’s just a humongous pile of unlikely circumstances. They’re not trustworthy, but I’m just having a hard time figuring out how they even could be mafia.
Lachlan: 60% - At the start of the day, I felt mostly okay about Lachlan. The fighting between Mia and Lachlan doesn't read as scum vs scum at all. And the fight kept the exact same tone across day 2 and 3, so I wasn’t chalking that up to any recruit business. And it would be pretty stupid for the mafia to initiate such heavy suspicion at their recruit, aka, their trump card. Lachlan’s posts were instrumental to me realizing Mia was mafia. Lachlan suspecting Loki after both Hecto and I had given Loki a weak clear doesn’t read as scum jumping on an opportunistic lynch at all. And claiming a protective role at that point was very much not the path of least resistance--another point against it being scum-motivated.
But also there are some things that make me leery of Lachlan. He’s still fixated on Loki, despite most of us agreeing that Loki being mafia doesn’t make any sense. But he hasn’t brought up arguments to the contrary either. I also wanted his input on whether Mia seemed like the recruit or not, and he didn’t say anything, even though I would think that was very relevant to his situation. And his last few posts have felt weirdly distracting; while the rest of us are scrambling to unravel this web of confusion, it’s almost like he doesn’t care.
It’s not nearly enough for me to feel comfortable making a case against him right now. But it still makes me wary. If both he and I are still around tomorrow, I will be scrutinizing him closely.
Dave: ??% - I’ve been having a very, very difficult time getting a read on Dave. Either innocent or guilty. Sure, there have been situations surrounding Dave that seemed to point toward either innocence or guilt (at the time). But his tone, his intent, his interactions, his agenda. All the messy, subjective stuff. I can’t read it. His redirects have consistently managed to not interact with Mel’s swap in any meaningful way, making them hard to verify (assuming they even worked), and the only time I got a watch on him was with Karo. I chalked that up to Mia being the silent killer, but Hecto’s investigation cast doubt on that.
And… something there’s something else bothering me. When I started closing in on Mia, she made no real attempt at all to point us at anyone else. Did you notice that? The only thing that could’ve saved her at that point was convincing us to jail someone else. And the only remotely feasible target was Dave. But she didn’t even try. She could’ve tried to screw him over to look good in our eyes. But I think she was already too fargone at that point. Bussing him wouldn’t have helped because she was more suspicious than him. But… if she instead just took the fall in order to make sure that he’d fly under the radar… he already had a pretty good alibi. Hell, we just straight up forgot about the Karo thing for most of the day.”
“I didn’t want to believe Dave is lying because that would’ve required some kinda god-tier prediction on his part to make everything line up perfectly. And making up the 50% redirect thing is like… why the hell make up such a weird-ass lie? But what if it’s not a lie? What if that really is his power. Mafia Redirectors exist. It’d be pretty damn easy to tell a story that was mostly truthful, but tweaking one or two details. And it would automatically be supported by everything he’d said or done up ‘til this point.”
“This is the point where I’d like to make a bigass case for why Dave is guilty. But I can’t do that. I don’t have a read on him. This is just process of elimination. I’m not voting for Mel, Hecto, Cabot, or Loki, period. Lachlan’s situation is weird, but not enough for me to feel comfortable voting for him (yet). Dave is the only one left. The only way he’s innocent is if Hecto is a naive cop (or if Loki is a ninja+godfather+other), and even then, that just shifts the goalposts toward him being the recruit instead of OG mafia, (which would honestly explain why I can’t get a read on him).”
“But if process of elimination isn’t enough, then let’s run risk/reward on if I’m wrong:
- If we jail Loki and we’re wrong, we lose a protector.
- If we jail Lachlan and we’re wrong, we lose a protector.
- If we jail Dave and we’re wrong, we lose a 50% redirector.
((And this was where I was GOING TO vote for Dave, but asdf I need to examine Cabot’s post aaaaaaaaa.))
- Partners
-
“One-shot...”
(Bulletproof... I had just read about that role. I thought it was possible that Cabot could have been a ninja, just outfitted with ninja gear, but...))
“...Why is author’s imagination so distractable and whimsical? I fear what this means for my world.”
((And—and, er, bulletproof. That’s also possible. And that would be a huge utility for us, Cabot! I’ll—I’ll be honest, we were mistaken in suspecting you. I think I made that clear enough by retracting my vote. And, again, like Starr said, I only chose you out of process of elimination. Everyone else seemed to have roles that checked out, and Lachlan was really adamant against Mia. You were quieter, but... now I see why. We changed our tune because we’re in a different mode now, where we narrowed everything down by... a lot. I had to come forward, but maybe in my haste, I accused someone too early.
More importantly, new things came up to make it so you’ve, Uhh... fallen behind on the suspicion again. Because we have two healers, one person whose story doesn’t add up, and a Dave. Oh, hi Starr. Let me just refresh the paaaage...
Ah, nothing. Okay. In that case, let me say a few things: just like everyone else, Cabot isn’t clear of suspicion until we see that bulletproof in action to thwart the mafia once with it. But until then, here’s something:
Loki is suspicious to me because their story doesn’t add up anymore, pure and simple.
I’m still not sure about Lachlan just because that’s the other healer.
Dave is suspicious because if it turns out he’s lying, a lot of our readings still make sense or, in some cases, make even more sense, particularly with Karo. Aaand Chibi said something again. Okay.
Oh god that’s a lot and I’m about to go into a meeting. I’ll post this now and add an amendment in response to Starr after. Be back in under an hour, hopefully!))
(Bulletproof... I had just read about that role. I thought it was possible that Cabot could have been a ninja, just outfitted with ninja gear, but...))
“...Why is author’s imagination so distractable and whimsical? I fear what this means for my world.”
((And—and, er, bulletproof. That’s also possible. And that would be a huge utility for us, Cabot! I’ll—I’ll be honest, we were mistaken in suspecting you. I think I made that clear enough by retracting my vote. And, again, like Starr said, I only chose you out of process of elimination. Everyone else seemed to have roles that checked out, and Lachlan was really adamant against Mia. You were quieter, but... now I see why. We changed our tune because we’re in a different mode now, where we narrowed everything down by... a lot. I had to come forward, but maybe in my haste, I accused someone too early.
More importantly, new things came up to make it so you’ve, Uhh... fallen behind on the suspicion again. Because we have two healers, one person whose story doesn’t add up, and a Dave. Oh, hi Starr. Let me just refresh the paaaage...
Ah, nothing. Okay. In that case, let me say a few things: just like everyone else, Cabot isn’t clear of suspicion until we see that bulletproof in action to thwart the mafia once with it. But until then, here’s something:
Loki is suspicious to me because their story doesn’t add up anymore, pure and simple.
I’m still not sure about Lachlan just because that’s the other healer.
Dave is suspicious because if it turns out he’s lying, a lot of our readings still make sense or, in some cases, make even more sense, particularly with Karo. Aaand Chibi said something again. Okay.
Oh god that’s a lot and I’m about to go into a meeting. I’ll post this now and add an amendment in response to Starr after. Be back in under an hour, hopefully!))
((**Sometimes, figuring out who to trust is JUST as important as figuring out who not to trust” oh my god this is not the time for typos.))