[INNOCENTS WIN] First Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[Chibi Pika]

[[

Chibi couldn't help but stare as the... Grovyle? (an experiment? a hybrid?) laid out his assessment of the game so far. He could find any fault in what the grass-type had said, but did he have to sound so damn cheerful about it? It would've been easy to pass him off as just some naive, idealistic type who had no idea what was at stake... but that was wrong, because from the way he carried himself, Tefiren obviously was used to having his life on the line. That bothered Chibi.

"Well, I don't think it's going to be so easy, but you're right about one thing-- I think a lot of of us do have... 'tricks' as you put it." He's not fond of the wording, but it gets the point across.

"Also, the Charizard's right. There's a high chance that the enemy would have some way of muscling past whatever protection we can offer. But they didn't use it last night. That tells me that they don't want to waste it on just anything. But the threat is there and we absolutely can't forget about it."

"We cannot let our hearts get in the way here. Strategically speaking, a day we do nothing is a free day for the assailants. Yes, we risk striking down an essential innocent--but the opportunity cost is dwarfed by the potential gains of striking an assailant early... particularly if the person we are striking has been quiet, or is providing no useful information otherwise."

The Pikachu flicks his tail, pensive. It's a good point, and he sure as hell has no interest in just sitting around and waiting to be taken in the night. However...

""That's assuming that they can't be useful to us. There might be versions of this game where that's the case, but not here. There's more at stake here than information if there's a high chance that they might have useful abilities. We've basically been given a free night for a lot of things to happen behind the scenes. I hardly think that's nothing."

]]

 

[Tanuki]

might as well shoot in the dark, worst thing that can happen is we take a loss we can afford and get no information from it.

[[“We-he-hell, ain’t’chu trigger happy? If’n I didn’t know any better, I’d say you want the whole town six feet deep,” Desper spat. “Tonight, we ain’t got diddly. Shootin’ in the dark, you ain’t ever gonna hit’cher mark. You wanna go all in on’n ace high, that’s high karat, but I ain’t lettin’ you lead us all down the Devil’s trail.”]]
OOC/Translation: We will have at least *something* to go off tomorrow. Killing now would more likely hurt us than help us by numbers alone. Also, pushing to increase the death count so early’s a bit... well, makes it seem like you want to kill an innocent.

 

[windskull]

"...But I disagree," he said, after running through his speech several times in his head to parse it. "We cannot let our hearts get in the way here. Strategically speaking, a day we do nothing is a free day for the assailants. Yes, we risk striking down an essential innocent--but the opportunity cost is dwarfed by the potential gains of striking an assailant early... particularly if the person we are striking has been quiet, or is providing no useful information otherwise."

[["I agree," Nip hissed, crossing his arms. "Let's start with the Raichu. Or maybe the bird over there." He pointedly gestured his head towards Lauchzelot. Did he think they were guilty? He wasn't sure. But they sure were getting on his nerves.
]]
Note: I'm not actually calling for lynching either of them, just rping out Nip's reaction. I'm actually kind of split on the help/harm ratio myself. We take out an innocent, and that's one less power under our belt. On the other hand, if we take out one of the mafia members, that's one step closer to victory. Hm...

Also, on a related note, do we bold our vote like in the previous game?

 

[elyvorg]

[["Hrm... Of course." Temporarily, Diyem turned his attention away from the Sirfetch'd. "Normally, I would actually suggest that we get all of the knowledge we can out. However..." Diyem took a copy of the informational booklet Tefiren was using. "If everybody revealed all of their roles here, or at least the most important ones, it won't be as beneficial to us here."]]

[[Tefiren stared at the fiery one, bewildered. "That's exactly the opposite of what I said! I said everyone shouldn't reveal their tricks, at least not yet! Weren't you listening?"]]

[["There appears to be a power present that allows one to bypass protection and other powers. Revealing our seer and healer, and then relying on perhaps some sort of target switcher or counter-striker of some kind to protect the doctor, may not be viable."]]

[[Tefiren froze, backing away a few steps, vague hints of bracken and undergrowth rippling around his feet. "They... They have a trick like that in this game?"

There was a way that They could catch someone for sure, without Their target ever being able to escape, no matter what tricks they used? No. That couldn't be right. It couldn't be right.

"But... but if They have that kind of trick, why... They didn't catch anyone last night! So They can't have. Or... or it's something so special and so clever by Their standards that They can only do it once. Right? That's gotta be it. There's no way They'd be able to be any more clever than that."

He stood there, his leaves rustling, glancing around in fast jerks between everyone else and the boughs of his tree behind him.

]]

Thanks for getting the strongman bit into the RP so I could have Tefiren think about that! (He would not remotely have thought of it as an option on his own.)

That's a matter I've also been considering, but I imagine the strongman kill has to be a one-shot thing, or at least a limited number. Having it be unlimited would A, raise the question of why the hell nobody died last night, and B, rather defeat the point of all these protection roles we probably have that are useless against it. But yes, even if it's one-shot, that's something we have to keep in mind.


I understand that in mafia games, lynching on the first day is meant to be advantageous to town, but there are two factors at play here that shift that balance a little - at least, in my judgement, and I admit I'm not super experienced at this or anything.

One, this is a setup with lots of useful power roles on the town's side. Two, nobody died last night, so we wouldn't be giving the mafia another kill, just the first one that they were supposed to have anyway. I'm not saying we keep not lynching forever, obviously, but abstaining day 1 to take advantage of this extra day and allow our inforoles to gather a little bit more info while they're all still alive to do so seems sensible to me.

...The likely presence of a backup role is something I didn't consider which would make losing a power role in this first lynch not matter though; you're right. Although, if it's an info role, then we would lose the tiny bit of info they've already gathered and not told us yet - but yeah, still less of a concern. (There's no way Tefiren's going to consider that role on his own, so if anyone wants to mention that in-RP, please do.)

 

[Namohysip]

[[

Diyem approached the phone and picked it up, turning it upside-down, then back to normal. "Hm." He had many questions. Was this individual operating elsewhere? How did this phone have access to this dimension while it was elsewhere? ...Did the phone not know it was a phone?

...Not important.

"That's assuming that they can't be useful to us. There might be versions of this game where that's the case, but not here. There's more at stake here than information if there's a high chance that they might have useful abilities.

"We have a fallback," Diyem said leisurely, waving a hand in the air. "The backup role may be in play. It seems it has a chance of taking on an assailant role if they have a special power, too... but the chances are slim, relative to simply taking out a random grunt. Even if we remove a power role, it at least removes the great Backup variable."

He looked at the sky. There seemed to be a counter there that moved down at random and strange intervals. Perhaps it was consistent to some faraway land, but to him, it only meant he could not afford to hesitate.

"You. Leek-bird." He turned to Lauchs. "You did not answer my question. Do you intend to strike me?"

]]

Like I said before, I used to think that not killing on the first day was a bad idea, but further looks into the game theory suggest that, in general, a chance at taking out a mafia member is better than doing nothing and nearly guaranteeing we lose an innocent on the next day--or, worse yet, nobody dies again, and we're in the same position as before. What, do we just wait for the first kill by the mafia instead? This also makes me suspect that any vigilante roles decided not to take any action on N0, probably because they didn't want to kill anyone's game before it even started. Understandable. But at this point, everyone had an opportunity to play.

I personally propose we take a look at the silent ones. They won't be providing much information anyway. Otherwise, we'd need to take a look at those who are going against town interests.

Also, on a related note, do we bold our vote like in the previous game?

I want to say yes... for Negrek's sake.

Although, if it's an info role, then we would lose the tiny bit of info they've already gathered and not told us yet - but yeah, still less of a concern.

Perhaps if we lynch someone who turns out to be innocent, they'll spill their info before we send them off. We'll have to make the votes seem solid before we do that. When we see that they're innocent, we can trust what they said. (Negrek, please clarify: we see alignments upon lynching, but not roles, right?)

 

[Tanuki]

[[Desper sneered. “Well, ain’t th’first time I been treated such a warm welcome, but never does feel good.” These folks were one apple short of a tun. “Y’all really s’new to’n owl hoot’r just desperate to bleed yer hands? If my own hide wa’n’t at stake, I’d shoot f’r the howlin’ wolves, but I’ll least wait ‘til they’ve got blood on their maws.”]]

OOC/Translation: Pushing so hard to kill the only one against more than likely adding another innocent to the list of the dead so soon is really suspicious.

 

[Equitial]

[[
Jen… wasn’t sure about most of the people here. He kept far away from the angry swearing man, but some of the others (the weird Grovyle) didn’t seem much better. He knew that personality wouldn’t reflect on who was actually disappearing people at night, but this was daytime.

Jen decided to stick close to the Charizard. Again, no evidence that he wouldn’t be snooping around and choosing a target in the night, but for now he seemed quiet and reasonable. That was, until he started talking about lynching a random person.

Jen remained quiet for a while, but when people started talking about lynching inactives, he hesitated. Remaining silent wouldn’t be the best strategy.

“Jailing someone at random is a dumb idea,” he said. He looked down and crossed his arms from drawing attention to himself, but it was too late now. “We’ll probably take down someone innocent, and we’d be just as likely to jail someone with a useful ability, which we might need later to win, as jail a mafia member.

“Lynching inactives is better, but if we’re talking info, jailing someone isn’t the only way to get it. We’re getting info right now, with arguing whether to jail someone or not. The mafia will almost definitely get someone tonight. They’ll choose someone, and this argument will inform their choice. If we jail someone, we’d not get more info and statistically we’d remove someone on our team.
]]

For what it’s worth, I’ve been doing reading as well and read somewhere that lynching randomly is a bad idea if the game is role heavy, though I can’t re-find where I read it. So yeah, lynching inactives has merit, but I’m leaning toward lynching no-one. Lynching at random is just a bad idea.

 

[Namohysip]

For what it’s worth, I’ve been doing reading as well and read somewhere that lynching randomly is a bad idea if the game is role heavy

Is it actually? I'd like to see a reference for that, because I'm beginning to wonder if my reference material assumes something like 50% vanilla players...

 

[Negrek]

Also, on a related note, do we bold our vote like in the previous game?

Yes, please!

(Negrek, please clarify: we see alignments upon lynching, but not roles, right?)

Correct, alignments but not roles.

 

[Sike Saner]

[[Ntairow hissed, conflicted. The proposed course of action wasn't ideal. Removing someone from the picture, someone more likely than not to be innocent, all for a mere chance at neutralizing a threat...

But nothing about the situation was ideal. And even the smallest chance might be better than none at all.

It made sense, but Ntairow still disliked it. She pulled a face as if it literally put a foul taste in her mouth. But however distasteful she found it, the notion of not acting at all felt worse the longer she considered it...]]

Ntairow is basically me right now sdfhssdf... I've been flip-flopping hard on whether or not to abstain... but I might?? be leaning toward going through with a lynch. Maybe. I think what it hinges on for me right now is: if the mafia does have a pierce-kill, is it bound to one person, or can any of them pull it off? If it's bound, and we manage to take out the one who's got it, that sounds like one heck of a score for town.

 

[Equitial]

Is it actually? I'd like to see a reference for that, because I'm beginning to wonder if my reference material assumes something like 50% vanilla players...

I'm going through my history to find where. I'm 95% percent sure I read it somewhere though, and the idea seems to hold water (at least with my admittedly limited experience with mafia). I'm working at it but my internet is also super slow at the moment so it might take a bit.

 

[Namohysip]

[[

These creatures were always so eager to be nice to each other. Oh, but what if this dashing, knightly duckling was actually the hero we needed? What if this adorable, gun-slinging Raichu was the golden heart that shined through the night? What if this cool, edgy Pikachu was secretly the smartest Pokemon there?

Pathetic. And he was outnumbered. Still, some of them brought up good points...

"This brochure suggests that there are powers abound," he relented, looking it over with a furrowed, scaly brow. "Misdirects. Healers. Blockers. Backups. Nngh... And now that I think about it..." His tail flicked again. No. They couldn't be right. He refused to believe that the gibberish Raichu was right.

Not making eye contact with the thing, Diyem went on to say, "The mafia is guaranteed to kill an innocent... and then the backup individual, assuming they exist, will gain their innocent power.

]]

if the mafia does have a pierce-kill, is it bound to one person, or can any of them pull it off? If it's bound, and we manage to take out the one who's got it, that sounds like one heck of a score for town.

Refer to Diyem here: I just realized that this is a bad way to think for day 1. If we kill the strongman... the backup becomes the mafia strongman. I'm suddenly leery about my own strategy.

 

[Sike Saner]

Oooh... yikes. So we'd basically be losing two innocents for the price of one, then; do I understand correctly?

 

[Chibi Pika]

((OOC: I’m like 90% sure that backups don’t switch alignment, will double check when I get home))

 

[Equitial]

Okay, this wasn't what I originally read, but here is a discussion on no-lynching where it argues that, while lynching day 1 is better in a vanilla game, it gets to be less of a good idea if there are more roles: https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=609&t=222775&sid=3880058bd895b2262bce56dc2ee66dc7

 

[Sike Saner]

I sure as frell hope they don't switch aligmnent.

Although... even if they do... hang on. So, we're statistically likelier to hit an innocent at this point in the game, aren't we? And I'm getting the sense that a lot of us have roles. So, then, while there's a chance to hit the strongman (which may or may not mean double innocent casualties)... aren't we likelier to take out an innocent role? Which in turn would assign it to the backup, thus preventing said backup from becoming a strongman anyway?

Backups: they break my brain ksjdfhsdjfs

 

[Tanuki]

[["Oooooh, s'once the lookin' glass's on you, y'seem a bit more steady on the trigger?" Desper cackled at Diyem. His grin shifted into a sneer 's he moseyed up to the zard. "As'f now, we know who wants what, 'n diddly else. Next crow's cry, at the absolute worst we'll get a reaper'n some reasons." Foot height didn't do him good, 'least when he'd so many tall mon to talk to.

To his luck, one wannabe dragon of a platform was right in front of him. He scurried on up to the 'zard's head'n' held a horn like a saddle's tongue. "For 'xample, ain't no doubt who dunnit if it's my hide in the morning, ain't that right, Sour-Scales?" He bent over to look upside down into Diyem's eyes."]]

OOC/Translation: Even the worst case scenario mentioned of the mafia getting a free kill, we know what players want now, and we know whose ideas are butting heads. So, if an innocent dies, we can at least look at why the mafia would've wanted them dead.

 

[Persephone]

[[ Murder. Well, not murder. Only because of luck. That still meant there was a murderer here. One out for you.

And now everyone wants to murder someone for real.

You have a feeling that this is going to be a long day. ]]

OOC: Law finals until Friday. Can’t guarantee much activity until then.

Outside of self interest I think day killing R1 is unwise with no kill the night prior, *especially* now. People have varying levels of conflict that don’t necessarily mean anything with regards to their mafia roles and it would essentially be at random. One random kill is probably villager and brings the game a little bit closer to a mafia win. I would wait a round until we’re killing based on anything more than bad luck induced by the timing of the round.

Day 2? Absolutely. Then we’ll have twice as much information and potentially a mafia kill to go off of. Not firing in the dark.

 

[Namohysip]

So, we're statistically likelier to hit an innocent at this point in the game, aren't we?

Technically speaking, this is always the case in mafia because when mafia outnumbers innocents, mafia wins, no questions.

[[

"Consider yourself lucky I'm in a non-violent mood," Diyem growled, picking Desper by the scruff of his neck before tossing him aside. "Rather than constantly point your gun toward someone, I'm actually trying to be productive and analyze the situation so we can be rid of this problem as quickly as possible."

]]

 

[elyvorg]

[[Tefiren had gradually inched further back towards the base of his tree as he thought about this. There might be someone here who could learn the tricks of whoever got removed from the game first? That was good, right? - it would mean those tricks wouldn't be wasted after all. But... could they also learn one of Their special tricks, if the group did catch one of Them first? Would that person become one of Them?

That seemed absurd. Someone who wasn't one of Them couldn't suddenly become one, could they? That didn't make any sense - but then again, in this new game where They could appear to be anything, maybe...?

No. No, it was still absurd.

]]

Yikes, I didn't consider the possibility of the backup changing alignment if we happen to lynch a mafia with a power role, making said mafia-lynch essentially useless if we do it before no innocents have been killed. But yeah, that seems... unlikely? The wiki page doesn't mention anything about changing alignments. Obviously it all depends on how Negrek chose to arrange it (and there might not even be a backup and we're all just speculating over nothing), but I'm coming down on the side of they probably won't.

I sure as frell hope they don't switch aligmnent.

Although... even if they do... hang on. So, we're statistically likelier to hit an innocent at this point in the game, aren't we? And I'm getting the sense that a lot of us have roles. So, then, while there's a chance to hit the strongman (which may or may not mean double innocent casualties)... aren't we likelier to take out an innocent role? Which in turn would assign it to the backup, thus preventing said backup from becoming a strongman anyway?

Backups: they break my brain ksjdfhsdjfs

Even if the backup did take on both the strongman's role and alignment, the original strongman would be dead, so there'd still effectively only be one, and it'd be like we just didn't actually kill them the first time. Right?

The wiki page on backups mentions that they keep the remaining shots of an x-shot role, so assuming Negrek's going by that, we don't have to worry about the one-shot potentially becoming a two-shot.