[INNOCENTS WIN] First Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[Tanuki]

Why would acting like you can defend against a possible lynch

No, I was acting like I could defend against a possible mafia kill.

 

[elyvorg]

Yes, and yes.

Acting like it totally makes sense doesn't mean that it makes sense. Lynching someone you're 100% sure is town (aka, yourself, if you're town) is not a good town play. You should be going for literally anybody else. Even if you don't have any scumreads, anyone but yourself is more likely to be mafia than you are, if you're town.

In that case, I'll leave my vote where it is for the moment.

Huh. It's almost like you don't actually want us to lynch you or something.


OKAY EVERYONE STOP NINJA-ING ME I FINISHED THE BIG REASONPOST HERE IT IS.

[[ Lauchselot clapped his wings in delight. “Yes, do go on!” ]]

[[Tefiren ignored the messy Human and turned to the leek-duck as he asked him to go on. "Okay! Okay! Listen..."]]

...the rest of this doesn't really work so well in-character, especially since all of DawningWinds's suspicious actions didn't happen in-RP, so lemme do this OOC.

Right, so. The other thing that is super suspicious, aside from yesterday's voting, is the way they acted upon receiving Espeon's info that Sike wasn't seen near Chibi. They just immediately switched their vote to Sike. No doubt expressed over "oh but Sike's roleclaim seemed genuine". No nervousness expressed over "if we're wrong we lose a doctor and that's a risk". No trying to think of any other possibilities that could explain this while having Sike be innocent. Just immediately trying to get a claimed doctor lynched now that they had a reason to. This included an obnoxiously large block of text trying to drill it into everyone's heads that either our claimed doctor or our claimed watcher has to be lying and we should definitely lynch one of them. They dropped that once I pointed out there could have been a mafia roleblocker, but of course they did; to refuse to acknowledge that possibility once it'd been brought up would look way too ridiculously suspicious.

I'm sorry, I think I missed what new info we learned that called the switching into question?

We have nothing that proves the switching definitely didn't happen. But as soon as we got Espeon's info about only seeing DW near Chibi, meaning Sike was either roleblocked or lying, we suddenly have nothing that concretely proves the switching did happen. That's why everyone was starting to become a lot less sure of DawningWinds yesterday.

My next bit of reasoning comes with the assumed premise that Sike is definitely innocent, which there's no proof of, but I genuinely believe they're not lying to us, so just accept this as the premise for now.

See, the biggest thing that made me believe DW's claim yesterday, other than the part where Sike's testimony seemed to prove it had to be true, was just the question of "why would a mafia lie about that?". And at this point I think most of us pretty much agree qva looks very innocent for multiple reasons, so it couldn't be to take suspicion off a mafia-qva either.

But if we believe that Sike is innocent, there has to be a mafia roleblocker who blocked Sike on N1. At the beginning of yesterday, Sike was kind of accidentally fumbling into a softclaim of the doctor who healed Chibi, out of confusion over how Chibi could be dead. This included Sike mentioning the possibility that they'd been roleblocked by someone who wasn't our hypothetical (and probably non-existent) town roleblocker whom I'd advised to roleblock the same person that night as they did on N0. If Sike had roleclaimed alone, we would have become absolutely sure there was a mafia roleblocker. So, if DawningWinds is mafia, they could well have claimed bus driver who switched qva and Chibi in order to hide the presence of a mafia roleblocker. And since they managed to get their claim in just before Sike claimed fully, they could conveniently make it look like Sike's claim just so happened to coincidentally prove their testimony correct, in order to make them look basically confirmed innocent.

(Here's Sike's post just before DW's roleclaim - and note that there's a long enough gap of time between their posts for DW to have been able to think over what Sike's post meant and respond accordingly.)

That part's all essentially post-hoc reasoning under the assumption that they are mafia (and that Sike is innocent), but it is a perfectly valid reason that they'd have to be lying about this.

Then there's a bunch of other things that don't prove anything at all, but are just generally scummy behaviour that'd have made them by far my strongest scumread yesterday if I hadn't spent most of it convinced that they were mechanically confirmed. We have:

This bizarrely threatening post promising to "look into" everyone (well, nearly everyone; they apparently overlooked me) who'd been advocating no-lynch on day 1, as if only they could possibly be mafia. Everyone else, despite their differing opinions on the best approach, had generally agreed that there are valid reasons for either side of that debate and that being on one side or the other did not inherently mean someone was more or less likely to be scum. Except DW. Something about that lack of acknowledgement of the rest of the discussion we'd been having struck me as odd and made me begin to side-eye them.

The way they brazenly said they were trying to get Chibi killed with their swap N1, because they were apparently so sure Chibi was mafia after Chibi had advocated no-lynch the day before. No regret expressed over having been wrong about Chibi and way too hasty to judge based on almost nothing. No surprise expressed over having been right that the mafia shot at qva. Just a callous "yeah I wanted Chibi dead and now they are". This was such an incredibly anti-town attitude and demeanour that if it wasn't for the fact that circumstances made their claim look completely legit at the time, I would have been all over them with suspicion for it. Tefiren sure as hell wanted to be.

When I told them it'd potentially be advantageous to town if they didn't announce who they switched on N0, they announced their swap while completely ignoring my post. I don't mind if they disagreed with me on what was the best approach to take, but they could have at least acknowledged what I said and mentioned that they personally didn't think it was best to do that. Again, just the lack of engagement with the rest of town really struck me as off, and again, I would have been pretty suspicious of it if I hadn't believed they were mechanically confirmed.

There's also the part where they suggested Negrek should modkill Espeon, which isn't precisely a big deal on its own because we did think Espeon wanted to leave the game at this point, and I don't think there's anything inecessarily suspicious about how Namo suggested we lynch her for that reason until she told us she could keep doing night actions. But modkilling is an extra step that would have also allowed DW to potentially get Sike lynched as well that day and lose us two useful roles. Again, not necessarily suspicious on its own, but it's another small thing on the pile.

 

[Tanuki]

you’ve, as scum, killed your teammate that no one was suspecting for no reason other than to make youself look better even though no one was suspecting you?

Yes. And I usually let other people point that out for me, since saying “I killed them, so I’m innocent,” was suspicious. In fact, one game where I did this, a cop called me out as mafia and they lynched him.

 

[Namohysip]

you’ve, as scum, killed your teammate that no one was suspecting for no reason other than to make youself look better even though no one was suspecting you?

Okay, to Tanuki's credit here, I've actually read about this gambit. It's basically an "all your eggs in one well-hidden basket" deal, where the psychological aspect of things is taken out in favor of pure luck (nobody catches you in the act.) If there's a strongman and you claim doctor or something, and then someone spots you there, you can just say that they used their shot, etc. Though, all of what I just listed is also something that could potentially apply here, in a way, so... Loud Shrugging

And re:elyvorg.

I'm... kind of agreeing here. Whether it's due to reverse psychology, being resigned from the game, or so on, one way or the other I'm not super comfortable with a switcher who might not be all-in, because that's a really volatile role to begin with, even for the role they're aligned with. So I guess until something more suspicious comes along, my first-half vote is gonna be going to Dawning Winds as well. For essentially the very arguments that had been made. If someone can convince me otherwise, go for it.

 

[DawningWinds]

Huh. It's almost like you don't actually want us to lynch you or something.

I don't want to cut discussion short.

 

[Tanuki]

@Negrek Does this game have a hammer rule in place?

Dawning is pushing way too hard for their own lynching to be innocent.

 

[Namohysip]

Honestly at this point I'm just waiting for Espeon to show up and say something that flips the game upside-down again.


(Have this post in the screenshot if you do another one of those montages, Wind. If I turn out to be right.)

 

[kyeugh]

Yes. And I usually let other people point that out for me, since saying “I killed them, so I’m innocent,” was suspicious. In fact, one game where I did this, a cop called me out as mafia and they lynched him.

i guess this isn’t really less optimal than scum-reading people for looking innocent, so i don’t doubt you did it, but if i was teaming with you in a game and you did that i would be pretty upset, and it’s definitely weird that you’re assuming someone else would do it, and basing reads on it/suggesting others do the same. i don’t know why i keep engaging with this since no one seems to be paying it much mind except me, so i’m probably just going to give it a rest for now, but i’m not moving my vote off you and i really think other people should consider it as well at this point tbh.

Okay, to Tanuki's credit here, I've actually read about this gambit. It's basically an "all your eggs in one well-hidden basket" deal, where the psychological aspect of things is taken out in favor of pure luck (nobody catches you in the act.) If there's a strongman and you claim doctor or something, and then someone spots you there, you can just say that they used their shot, etc. Though, all of what I just listed is also something that could potentially apply here, in a way, so... Loud Shrugging

i mean, it’s not impossible, it’s just wildly unnecessary and it’s really weird to be scumleaning someone on the off chance that they executed this specific inoptimal play the face of additional evidence suggesting otherwise.

in re: elyvorg’s push on dw... i believe that you’re town, elyvorg, and i believe that you really believe this, but i just can’t really get there myself. the things you’re saying hold up and are certainly possible, but i think it’s just as possible that dw is telling the truth, just doesn’t really care that much and hasn’t been taking other people’s suggestions into account that much. it’s possible they feel disconnected from the game, have been doing pretty much their own thing, and doesn’t care if they get lynched if they think it’ll be useful information (which i very much disagree with, but is it really impossible that they genuinely believe it?). that’s not to say i don’t think there are real reasons to suspect dw, and if that’s what we agree on at the end of the day, i won’t oppose it... but i don’t think it’s really that clear-cut, and even after seeing your case all laid out i’m still not especially interested in lynching dw right now.

a major point in dw’s favor that i neglected to mention before is that the odds that BOTH wagons yesterday were wolves just seem... astronomically low to me. like, maybe maybe maybe it happened, but i just strongly doubt it. also, dw and persephone’s interactions do not really make sense if they’re both scum.

 

[Sike Saner]

(Here's Sike's post just before DW's roleclaim - and note that there's a long enough gap of time between their posts for DW to have been able to think over what Sike's post meant and respond accordingly.)

...DW's switchclaim also happened to directly follow a post wherein I brought up the possibilty of a switcher. That's kind of damning timing on DW's part in hindsight...

@DawningWinds I still think your attempts to get yourself lynched don't make enough sense from a pro-town perspective. And in the light of elyvorg's post... I'm finding myself connecting some dots here. It really does seem like there's an anti-town color to a good amount of your behavior thus far.

I'm not so sure of your innocence anymore. Really, the only reason I ever thought you could be innocent is because you were voted on by someone we now know was scum, and at the time I wasn't sure how likely it was that scum would throw one of their own under the bus in this case. I'm still not sure how likely it is, but I feel more willing to consider the possibility that it happened now.

 

[DawningWinds]

This bizarrely threatening post promising to "look into" everyone (well, nearly everyone; they apparently overlooked me) who'd been advocating no-lynch on day 1, as if only they could possibly be mafia.

I had an entire thing typed up analyzing literally everything Tanuki had said up to that point but ultimately gave up on that after it got lost into cyberspace when I copied and deleted it so I could do a different post and then accidentally copied something else. Last time I did giant spoilers analyzing everyone's posts it took me four freaking hours with almost no posts between when I started and when I finished, so it kind of discouraged me to finish.

 

[Sike Saner]

No, I was acting like I could defend against a possible mafia kill.

I still fail to see how a fake self-protect attempt during the day phase could get them thinking "we'd better send in the strongman if we're gonna take this guy out tonight", but I'm beginning to feel like your strategies are honestly just beyond my comprehension at this point. I guess I'll consider you a null read, for now.

 

[DawningWinds]

Dawning is pushing way too hard for their own lynching to be innocent.

On Bulba we assume people who do that are Jesters and avoid lynching them. But this isn't Bulba and I'm not a Jester.

 

[kyeugh]

On Bulba we assume people who do that are Jesters and avoid lynching them. But this isn't Bulba and I'm not a Jester.

there’s also (probably) not a jester in this game.

 

[Tanuki]

specific inoptimal play the face of additional evidence suggesting otherwise.

In my experience, it is far from inoptimal and I’ve stated and restated the reason why the evidence suggesting you innocent could soon become the opposite to the point that it seems like you’re ignoring it for the sake of making me look like mafia, which... yeah.

 

[DawningWinds]

I still think your attempts to get yourself lynched don't make enough sense from a pro-town perspective.

I honestly feel like my lynch is the second-best one for the town, only after a scum.

 

[elyvorg]

I'd almost be worried that DawningWinds is actually some kind of third-party role that wins if they're lynched, but that can't be it. If they're not a bus driver, what Espeon saw was them killing Chibi. And my reasoning for why the odd back-and-forth voting last night only makes sense if they're mafia with Persephone.

I'm not so sure of your innocence anymore. Really, the only reason I ever thought you could be innocent is because you were voted on by someone we now know was scum, and at the time I wasn't sure how likely it was that scum would throw one of their own under the bus in this case. I'm still not sure how likely it is, but I feel more willing to consider the possibility that it happened now.

Tefiren explained why it makes sense in this instance that Persephone would vote for them if they're also mafia - of the two we were gunning to lynch, DawningWinds was more suspicious to us at the time than Persephone was. Also note how Persephone only switched their vote away from Starlight Aurate onto DawningWinds once it was very clear that they were the only two people in the running to actually end up getting lynched.

 

[windskull]

I'm getting kind of tired so my thoughts probably aren't going to be super coherent forgive me. I'm kind of following elyvorg's logic as well, tbh. Though I guess I can understand dawningwind's logic as well if they are town. Like the idea of "if we don't have any better leads to go off of, this should at least help prove some other people's innocence?" That makes sense to me. I don't think it's the best town play, but I can see where the idea comes from.

I can also see why, if she is mafia, why she might vote for herself but change last second to persephone: roles. Theoretically, if she is mafia and is not a mafia bus driver, her role might be more useful than Persephone's. Although.. I think this would make her voting for herself again today not make sense? Or at least, it would make less sense, but powerwolfing is a thing, like qva brought up.

That said... even though I'm leaning towards voting dw with the current information we have, I want to wait and see if Espeon has anything useful before I make any further decisions. Oh yeah, on that note...

Honestly at this point I'm just waiting for Espeon to show up and say something that flips the game upside-down again.


(Have this post in the screenshot if you do another one of those montages, Wind. If I turn out to be right.)

I should probably share this for anyone that missed my post on discord. (video)

 

[kyeugh]

In my experience, it is far from inoptimal and I’ve stated and restated the reason why the evidence suggesting you innocent could soon become the opposite to the point that it seems like you’re ignoring it for the sake of making me look like mafia, which... yeah.

if you are mafia, killing your teammate is inoptimal. you might be able to spin some advantage from it but it still makes the game harder to win and hurts your side overall.
i’m not ignoring it—potentially being (unverifiably) targeted by the mafia doesn’t matter as much as 1) helping lead town to shooting scum yesterday, and 2) making posts that attempt to solve and push town to victory. i don’t really see how dw’s flip affects how i look because it doesn’t change anything about the way i have actually been playing the game, barring assumptions about how i’m secretly mafia shooting my teammates because i made a weird play that anyone who’s played the game with me before knows i would never make in a million years.
also, i don’t really feel a strong need to explain myself anyway? i’m not in danger of dying, no one’s really scumreading me except you, and i know for a fact that i’m town. engaging with it just lends it credence, which is why i should really stop, but for some reason i can’t make myself because it just really bothers me out of principle.

Tefiren explained why it makes sense in this instance that Persephone would vote for them if they're also mafia - of the two we were gunning to lynch, DawningWinds was more suspicious to us at the time than Persephone was. Also note how Persephone only switched their vote away from Starlight Aurate onto DawningWinds once it was very clear that they were the only two people in the running to actually end up getting lynched.

hm, yeah, this actually makes a lot of sense. also, this is kind of weird? hmmm... i guess the persephone wagon was sudden enough that it’s actually kind of plausible that both she/dw could be scum together, since mafia wouldn’t have had a ton of time or ability to diffuse. might need to sleep on this tbh...

 

[kyeugh]

diffuse

* defuse?

 

[Namohysip]

but that can't be it.

I think Negrek mentioned there may be "custom roles" present -- but tanners etc. aren't custom, so who knows. I suppose it's not worth considering something that's so far away as an unknown right now.

Ah--yep.

I can also confirm that there will be at least one custom role used in this game. However, please don't feel pressured to scour the internet trying to figure out what I might be using besides what's on the list; you won't find it/them.