Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[unrepentantAuthor]

"I was told that Noivern held the Payback Emera.

POV: you're me right now

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Anyway heads up but I’m not going to be terribly present for this day phase either. Irl has been wrecking my mental health for a long while now and these games put a strain on me at the best of times. (I probably shouldn’t have signed up in the first place tbh, but at the time I signed up, I was doing a little better. Silly of me to think that was going to stay the case, lol.)

Anyway I won’t vanish but I need a breather from Everything rn and Everything includes this game for now. Will still do my best to do some sincere speculation before EOD.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Sorry to hear that – best of luck with the IRL things and I hope it helps to take a break.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Inforole examination, updated for D4:

Hareta: Washerwoman: we got hard proof he was right about Odette Virgin and that means he's almost certainly Town. It's not definitely true but let's believe this.

Spectrier: Undertaker: clocked Rui as Drunk and Drake as Scarlet Woman. Easily faked. We don't know if this is trustworthy.

Elgyem: Empath: there's a contradiction between N1 and N2. We've received at least one piece of bad intel from Elgyem. The simplest explanation is that she was Poisoned on N1, but she could have been Poisoned repeatedly, or be Drunk, or be Evil. If she was Poisoned N1 then Morgan wasn't.

• Both Rui and Hareta registered as Good on N0.
• One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil on N1.
• Both Madeline and Hareta registered as Good on N2.

Rui: Investigator: clocked Hareta or Watt as Scarlet Woman. Watt died to the Virgin, so that's impossible, and we believe Hareta. This means Rui must have been Drunk/Poisoned/Evil.

Madeline: Slayer: Morgan is not the Demon. It's possible to fake this role. It's implausible that these two are on a scumteam together.

Morgan: Fortune Teller: Watt was not the Demon, therefore there's a contradiction between N0 and N1. The simplest explanation is that she was Poisoned on N1, but she could have been Poisoned repeatedly, or be Drunk, or be Evil. If she was Poisoned N1 then Elgyem wasn't.

• N0 one of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.
• N1 neither Rocky nor Madeline registered as Demon.
• N2 neither Drake nor Spectrier registered as Demon.

Watt: Chef: no Evils are neighbours. We have chosen to believe this but nonetheless it's not impossible that the information is false.

Additional Notes:

• At most four inforoles could have been wrong at once on D1, if we had some combination of Evils/Drunk/Poisoning, i.e. Rui/Morgan/Watt/Elgyem. However, it's possible that all our D1 info was good except Rui's. This means 1-4 of our N0 intel pieces were false.
• If you are Drunk, the Storyteller "may lie to you". I believe Inke said something about using coinflips or dice. Drunk/Poisoned intel is unreliable, but not the same thing as getting opposite info necessarily. You can get multiple Evil and Good results for the same person if you are Drunk.
• The Drunk can be any townsfolk. A Drunk Soldier can be kiled by the Demon.
• "No evil neighbours" seems like it has to be true based on reads and corroborating intel... There are no neighbours I think it's plausible are scumbuddies, anyway.
• Based on our suspect pool, at least one of our inforoles has been lying to us. Likely two. Possibly three.

I hope this all helps us figure this shit out. I'm pretty drained lately, I'm not gonna lie.]]

Name	N0 Intel	N1 Intel	N2 Intel	N3 Intel
Hareta	Odette is Virgin. ✅
Spectrier	-	Rui was Drunk.	Drake was Scarlet Woman.	Malachai was Ravenkeeper
Elgyem	Rui and Hareta are Good.	Madeline or Hareta is Evil.	Madeline and Hareta are Good.	Madeline or Hareta is Evil.
Rui	Hareta or Watt is Scarlet Woman
Morgan	Madeline or Watt is Demon	Rocky and Madeline are not Demon	Drake and Spectrier are not Demon	Spectrier or Elgyem is Demon
Watt	No Evil neighbours

[[Elgyem's results are also inconsistent. Drunk, Poisoned, or Lying~!]]

[[Morgan's latest results taken at face value imply Elgyem is Evil.]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[Also, once again, I can't stay up posting in this thread past 1am and I have a limited window in the morning to post. If I post in the morning it apparently doesn't matter because it's right before EoD. But if I don't respond to everything that happens in the night, then I'm "absent from EoD" and that's sus too. This is an unreasonable line of argument.]]

[[I do want to address this though because it got lost in the EOD shenanigans previously—I want to clarify that my suspicion on your vote choices wasn’t because of the timing, and more about the fact that you (seemingly, from my perspective) ignored the Drake train in favor of Chibi, which I found suspicious, and only joined the Drake train after the Chibi train didn’t pan out. I definitely could have phrased that better though because it did come off like it was more about the timing than anything else, and I’m sorry for that.

I wanted to clarify because I don’t want it to seem like the only basis for my suspicions of you (or anyone else, for that matter) are on timing. I emphasized the point strongly on D2 because the lack of resistance on my vote train was a red flag, but I definitely shouldn’t have harped on it for so long. I’m sorry about that, too.

In hindsight it would have been a silly play as scum to leap onto a scum buddy’s vote train so late, but honestly I’d probably have found you suspicious regardless because I was pretty dead set on you and Tetra being a scumteam. These games are so much fun! *eye twitch*

[[Sorry to hear that – best of luck with the IRL things and I hope it helps to take a break.]]

Thanks, I appreciate that!]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[Oh my god if fucking Elgyem is evil I am going to flip shit I SAID FROM THE BEGINNING THEY WERE SUS AHHHHHHHH 😂]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[I'm still not fully convinced of either Drake's or Spectrier's innocence at all but I think it's reasonable to execute Elgyem at this point.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[

Based on our suspect pool, at least one of our inforoles has been lying to us. Likely two. Possibly three.

"Rocky agree. This has been reasoning all along. Make them tell more lies, more lies equals more ways to make mistake, get caught in lies."

[[With no way to actually *disprove* anything, having a lying inforole fake claim without possibility of a counter-claim is pretty much impossible to sniff out unless they mess up. The reasoning behind my votes up to now was that my hope was eventually we'd have enough fake information out there that we could sus out who was telling the lies.

Right now both Morgan and Elgyem have contradictory results showing up in their reads. That has to be something, *somewhere*.

The self-vote from Chibi is also really baffling. Whyyyyy do that if we're so close to EoL? We have no way to know if there's one or two scum left, and if it's two, well, voting yourself out if you're town doesn't seem like the smartest play. But someone can correct me if that assumption is wrong.

We need to find the Demon.
- Morgan has been "cleared" by Madeline's Slayer shot (if Madeline is not lying.)
- Chibi has been "cleared" by Morgan's read on them as "not Demon" one night, but not the next. Provided Morgan has not been Poisoned or is lying.

My only other thoughts right now is something Dave said earlier with the Morgan gambit back on Day 2, was it?: We all assumed Elgyem's soft claim was caught by all players, including scum, and was assumed that would make them a target. It was later revealed that they weren't shot at (Odette was, protected by Dave) and Morgan was poisoned, creating their contradictory results N0 and N1.

That means Elgyem was not affected at all. Why?

After a bit more thinking, an Empath result would be just as easy to fake as an Undertaker or Fortune Teller... One thing I want to mention is this: Elgyem has ALWAYS offered their night information first. Morgan always second. Does this mean anything? Is it easier to fake Empath results before anyone else says theirs? Looking for other thoughts on these I'm just tossing things out as they occur to me at this point.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[I also cannot shake the feeling that the scum team has straight up dictated to us exactly what they were going to do every night because they knew there was no way for us to stop or counter claim in this set up.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[quick pop in, The only way for it to be Madeline is Rui to be innocent, but that would mean what? Chibi is actually Drunk??no. I don't believe this but if I did it would STILL prove that I'm the mayor. But now we are at ELO or whatever as far as I calculate.

Also out of everyone Phan sure has been dictating the most and knows the most of anyone how to play. Which lines up with the Chibi/Phan back and forth from yesterday and last second tiebreaker swap to kill Malachai]]

 

[Flyg0n]

I still don't think we're at ELO

Yes we ARE of course you're saying this

I don't even know we can afford not to use ghost votes at this point? We cannot mess up this day again like yesterday

 

[Persephone]

“ELO? Like chess?”

 

[aer]

[[What does ELO mean?]]

 

[aer]

[[I need to go got a bit more rest before I drive home but so y’all can start speculating: I redchecked Honse and Elegym.]]

... that means the horse is a yakuza horse then.

I think.

Well, anyway, why not.

Vote: Glastrier @Inkedust

 

[aer]

"Well, that was entirely predictable. I continue to dislike the elgyem for all the reasons I've said before. I would be willing to target the horses today, if only because killing the two unconfirmed players next to each other does increase our odds. But I still stand behind killing the alien. Too many baffling plays combined with the probability that at least some of our info is willfully false."

"I'm voting you next for how you keep coming at me."

[[Oh my god if fucking Elgyem is evil I am going to flip shit I SAID FROM THE BEGINNING THEY WERE SUS AHHHHHHHH 😂]]

[[I'm not evil 😭😭😭!!!!]

[[I'm still not fully convinced of either Drake's or Spectrier's innocence at all but I think it's reasonable to execute Elgyem at this point.]]

... okay so it was the bat/rat/someone else. I want to say bat/rat/horse, but the horse is next to the bat, so they can't both be it. If the horse was poisoned tonight and it was the rat, that could mean it was one of the ghosts.
If by information that we know it was the rat... but... contradictory results...

We all assumed Elgyem's soft claim was caught by all players, including scum, and was assumed that would make them a target.

Well no I would not assume that. Sind and Rui seemed to not know what was going on at all, I'm not really sure about if the mimkyu picked it up either. I don't know about the others though.

[[quick pop in, The only way for it to be Madeline is Rui to be innocent, but that would mean what? Chibi is actually Drunk??no. I don't believe this but if I did it would STILL prove that I'm the mayor.

I think Rui is innocent though... I mean I've been saying that the whole game.
[[sorry I can't find the dark rat's profile picture]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

The self-vote from Chibi is also really baffling. Whyyyyy do that if we're so close to EoL?

[[Either they're losing motivation to defend themself (not alignment-indicative) or it's a ploy to seem towny.]]

last second tiebreaker swap to kill Malachai

[[Ehhhh, that was to make sure we killed someone. Who made it a tie to put Phan in that position? Oh, uh. It was Odette apparently. Hm. Oh dear.]]

"I'm voting you next for how you keep coming at me."

okay so it was the bat/rat/someone else.

[[hey]]

[[also if you're town and you're sincere you need to rethink this]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[What does ELO mean?]]

[[It's a typo of EoL: Eliminate or Lose. Meaning we need to eliminate a Bad Guy or else they'll kill another townie that night and then be able to outvote town the next day and win.]]

 

[Panoramic_Vacuum]

[[Unless somehow Electric Light Orchestra is in play. I do like their music, but I doubt it.]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[I do want to address this though because it got lost in the EOD shenanigans previously—I want to clarify that my suspicion on your vote choices wasn’t because of the timing, and more about the fact that you (seemingly, from my perspective) ignored the Drake train in favor of Chibi, which I found suspicious, and only joined the Drake train after the Chibi train didn’t pan out. I definitely could have phrased that better though because it did come off like it was more about the timing than anything else, and I’m sorry for that.

I wanted to clarify because I don’t want it to seem like the only basis for my suspicions of you (or anyone else, for that matter) are on timing. I emphasized the point strongly on D2 because the lack of resistance on my vote train was a red flag, but I definitely shouldn’t have harped on it for so long. I’m sorry about that, too.

In hindsight it would have been a silly play as scum to leap onto a scum buddy’s vote train so late, but honestly I’d probably have found you suspicious regardless because I was pretty dead set on you and Tetra being a scumteam. These games are so much fun! *eye twitch*

[[No worries, I get it. I don't think there's any point litigating the specifics, so I'll just say that I understand the reasoning you were trying to get across. No hard feelings.]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Which lines up with the Chibi/Phan back and forth from yesterday and last second tiebreaker swap to kill Malachai

[[This may shock you but I in fact do not control the actions of Sind, I had no way to know Perse would have clutched up for us and thought I might be the last one to bed.

Anyway we’re not at parity so if you wanna maintain your innocence you gotta decide if you’re scumreading Rui or Malachai.]]

“Can we please kill the horse now? I’ve wanted them gone for days and I’m tired of beating a dead horse. Unless we live in the unlikely universe where we’re a night ahead of our deadline, or we live in the utterly ludicrous Maddie-Elegym world, I don’t see a way it couldn’t be them.”

“I’m still curious what’s up with the poisoner. I feel like they’re still alive, since I believed them to be such last night and it’s not Mal. If I think the horse is the demon, then I have to conclude that I was poisoned last night and not tonight. If I think it’s one of the other two, I don’t know, I think you can argue it being Elegym or Madeline.

“I’ll force my guardian to run some estimates on the other two later, but there’s one thing I’m confident in and it’s that the horse has been bad news for a while. So I’ll just go with that for now~”

@Inkedust VOTE: SPECTRIER aka GLASTRIER / CHIBI PIKA