Seventh Anniversary Mafia

[aer]

[[not actually mad + it does amuse me to hear that 3 people have been having bad sleep yesterday, myself included. nightmare trio]]]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

Frankly, I've been hoping we WOULD lose if my theory that there was no scum at all was true, but that was obviously thrown off the window by that kill... Though I find something weird in what that evolved Zorua was saying...

[[Fwiw, this was advertised as a basic game, so no, there’s no world where there are zero scum unless Inke lied about this being a vanilla setup and this game has what is called a “bastard mod” where the mod can straight up lie to people in-game. If this was a game of no scum, it would have been advertised as role madness or, at the very least, an uncommon setup.

For that reason, it’s not really worth analyzing Inke’s posts for game hints, either. Flavor is just flavor from the GM. It’s far more beneficial to analyze the players’ posts for information.]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[back later to reply directly to any questions and thoughts

Either that or I quit my job to play this fulltime ]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

But how could we have gotten incriminating results on the same Mimikyu last night unless we were both poisoned, which is impossible? How can we be in agreement if Madeline is innocent? If I were poisoned, then you couldn't have been, but we both got evil results. If you knew that you weren't poisoned, then why would you claim that you were and got false results? Were you not reporting who you checked for some reason?

"We got them on different nights, and I have a built-in false positive. My false incriminating result would be caused by either my being poisoned night 0 (y'know, the night you got clean reads on Rui and Hareta) or just Watt being my false positive. Yours was almost certainly caused by your being poisoned night 1. Admittedly, I initially thought these two false incriminations were a lot less likely than me having one false exoneration yesterday— to such an extent I was willing to push Dave over it— but now that we can be pretty sure you were poisoned and not I when I got the clean read on Madeline, it's looking like I have to face up to the fact that reality is the less-likely seeming case."

I spent a while going over previous assumptions made about the game state because I was taking what Morgan says as fact, and upon reassessment, these reactions are also weird to me. Considering that Rocky is mostly verified based off of Morgan's logic. Is it only based on the idea that we have to have exactly 2 outsiders? Why can't we just have 1?

Morgan shrugged "I'm not the only one saying it, as you've cited there. It's not impossible we have 1 but it'd be a little low— eight town power roles is quite strong. Right now we just have better lines of inquiry, especially because I used him as the other half of my second Madeline test, when I got a clean read, so even if he was lying he's a minion at worst."

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

Is it only based on the idea that we have to have exactly 2 outsiders? Why can't we just have 1?

[[Because of how setup works.]]

[[We have twelve players. Therefore there must be exactly 7 town, 2 outsiders, 2 minions, and 1 demon. One of our inforoles is almost certainly Drunk. And if Rocky isn't a Butler then we must have a Recluse or Saint somewhere who should have spoken up by now.]]

 

[Sinderella]

It feels obvious to me that Dave was killed because he was most likely the Monk. However, being that Dave was also the only other goddamn person here putting some sus on Morgan's weird ass playing, and being that my sus of Morgan hasn't AT ALL left yet, I could see that kill being beneficial in that regard too

[[Ignore this, I’m a stupid fuck—Dave can still talk in the game, duh]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[guys i don't think sind is mafia]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[guys i don't think sind is mafia]]

[[Pikashock Hmmm.... Can we be sure /jjj]]

 

[Shiny Phantump]

guys i don't think sind is mafia

[[woah now lets not make any hasty assumptions here— we all trust Sind more than anyone else but have you considered how DANGEROUS this would make her if she WAS evil??? </joke>]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Reposting myself as I continue to try and figure out who can possibly be the Demon.

1. Dave. Monk. Locktown. Dead.
2. Drake. Almost certainly Poisoner or Scarlet Woman. Lockscum. Dead.
3. Odette. Mechanically-confirmed Virgin. Locktown.
4. Malachai. Ravenkeeper. Locktown. Me.
   
5. Spectrier. Either Undertaker or the Demon.
6. Hareta. Washerwoman. Locktown.
7. Elgyem. Probably Empath. Hard Town.
   
   1. Both Rui and Hareta registered as Good on N0.
   2. One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil on N1.
   3. Both Madeline and Hareta registered as Good on N2.
      
8. Rui. Claimed Investigator. Must be Drunk, Poisoned N0, or Scarlet Woman. Dead.
   
9. Madeline. Either the Slayer or the Demon.
10. Morgan. Almost certainly Fortune Teller. Must have wrong info at least one night. Firm Town.
    
    1. N0 one of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.
    2. N1 neither Rocky nor Madeline registered as Demon.
    3. N2 neither Drake nor Spectrier registered as Demon.
       
11. Watt. Chef. Locktown. No scum were neighbours on N0/D1. Dead.
12. Rocky. Probably Butler. Doesn't make sense to not be an Outsider. Hard Town.

If it's not Spectrier or Madeline, it can only be Morgan or Elgyem, I think. I don't think it's Hareta because I think he is legitimately the Washerwoman, although I'm not as certain of this as the Butler Rocky thing, which I've come around to believing is a necessary concrete fact.

Also, if Madeline is the Slayer, Morgan can't be the Demon. So if we trust Madeline, we have to also trust that Morgan is either Good or a Minion.

I think this means I gotta play out each scenario with every possible combination of Drunk/Poison/Lying and figure out which ones are and aren't workable... Idk if I have the energy for that rn but it's the next step I think.]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[No I'm roleclaiming demon right now you caught me]]

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[FRICK! GET HER!!!]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[I'm clearly very good at this game as you all can tell]]

 

[Sinderella]

[[Getting mechanically confirmed town D1 snapped my tryhard muscle so bad man now my thumb has permanently been inserted into my own ass. I SWEAR I'm actually going to contribute something productive this phase. Which is explaining why we need to vote Morgan]]

 

[Flyg0n]

[[No I'm roleclaiming demon right now you caught me]]

[[I know where you are irl and I am coming to lynch you myself, we finally won guys× ]]

 

[HelloYellow17]

[[SIND IS THE SK 😱]]

 

[Zdrmonster]

Drake/Morgan/Elgyem - Requires the redchecks from yesterday to have been an insanely bold Morgan+Elgyem setup, which I still don't find plausible. Also why would Morgan would throw away the free Madeline elimination at the last second.

This makes sense to me, but I'd want to await Odette/Sind's explanation of Morgan being scum to be sure. I'd also want proper confirmation that Madeline isn't scum, because again the poison could be in effect. IDK, I still feel like we're all being played for complete fools.

 

[unrepentantAuthor]

[[Inforole examination:

Hareta: Washerwoman: we got hard proof he was right about Odette Virgin and that means he's almost certainly Town. It's not definitely true but let's believe this.

Spectrier: Undertaker: clocked Rui as Drunk and Drake as Scarlet Woman. Easily faked. We don't know if this is trustworthy.

Elgyem: Empath: there's a contradiction between N1 and N2. We've received at least one piece of bad intel from Elgyem. The simplest explanation is that she was Poisoned on N1, but she could have been Poisoned repeatedly, or be Drunk, or be Evil. If she was Poisoned N1 then Morgan wasn't.

• Both Rui and Hareta registered as Good on N0.
• One of Madeline and Hareta registered as Evil on N1.
• Both Madeline and Hareta registered as Good on N2.

Rui: Investigator: clocked Hareta or Watt as Scarlet Woman. Watt died to the Virgin, so that's impossible, and we believe Hareta. This means Rui must have been Drunk/Poisoned/Evil.

Madeline: Slayer: Morgan is not the Demon. It's possible to fake this role. It's implausible that these two are on a scumteam together.

Morgan: Fortune Teller: Watt was not the Demon, therefore there's a contradiction between N0 and N1. The simplest explanation is that she was Poisoned on N1, but she could have been Poisoned repeatedly, or be Drunk, or be Evil. If she was Poisoned N1 then Elgyem wasn't.

• N0 one of Madeline and Watt registered as Demon.
• N1 neither Rocky nor Madeline registered as Demon.
• N2 neither Drake nor Spectrier registered as Demon.

Watt: Chef: no Evils are neighbours. We have chosen to believe this but nonetheless it's not impossible that the information is false.

Additional Notes:

• At most four inforoles could have been wrong at once on D1, if we had some combination of Evils/Drunk/Poisoning, i.e. Rui/Morgan/Watt/Elgyem. However, it's possible that all our D1 info was good except Rui's. This means 1-4 of our N0 intel pieces were false.
• If you are Drunk, the Storyteller "may lie to you". I believe Inke said something about using coinflips or dice. Drunk/Poisoned intel is unreliable, but not the same thing as getting opposite info necessarily. You can get multiple Evil and Good results for the same person if you are Drunk.
• The Drunk can be any townsfolk. A Drunk Soldier can be kiled by the Demon.
• "No evil neighbours" seems like it has to be true based on reads and corroborating intel... There are no neighbours I think it's plausible are scumbuddies, anyway.
• Based on our suspect pool, at least one of our inforoles has been lying to us. Likely two. Possibly three.

I hope this all helps us figure this shit out. I'm pretty drained right now, I'm not gonna lie.]]

Name	N0 Intel	N1 Intel	N2 Intel
Hareta	Odette is Virgin. ✅
Spectrier		Rui was Drunk.	Drake was Scarlet Woman.
Elgyem	Rui and Hareta are Good.	Madeline or Hareta is Evil.	Madeline and Hareta are Good.
Rui	Hareta or Watt is Scarlet Woman
Morgan	Madeline or Watt is Demon	Rocky and Madeline are not Demon	Drake and Spectrier are not Demon
Watt	No Evil neighbours

 

[Chibi Pika]

Glastrier could not find any fault with the list of roles and night-actions that Noivern had provided. It began scratching markings into the icy ground at its feet to sort out its own conclusions.

• If Elgyem was poisoned n0, Morgan was not. In this scenario, Madeline is innocent, and Morgan either lied in a seriously strange and roundabout way for someone trying to implicate Madeline, or Morgan was actually poisoned by pure random chance n0, or Watt was the designated false-Demon.
  • Poisoned Elgyem implies that the scumteam suspected Empath and wanted to frame Madeline.
• If Morgan was poisoned n1, Elgyem was not. In this scenario, either Madeline is demon, or Elgyem lied and got very lucky that her intel lined up with Morgan's, considering that scum would have had no way of predicting what Morgan's n0+n1 conclusions would be.
  • Poisoned Morgan implies that the scumteam feared her inforole softclaim.
• If Elgyem was poisoned n2, then Madeline is evil.
• If Elgyem is lying, then she tried to frame Madeline, but then got cold feet or something and backed off, which reduces the pool of targets, which is bad for scum in this setup.
• If Morgan was poisoned n2, then she should have gotten a Yes. At this point I don't really have any doubt that Drake was evil, so I believe my intel was correct. The only way n2 poisoned Morgan even works is if Drake was actually demon, someone else is scarlet woman (to explain the game continuing) and also my intel was wrong, but not opposite-alignment wrong (also if my intel is wrong then I'm drunk and Rui's not). This is just too complicated for me to consider it.
• If Morgan is lying, she's also not demon.

[[I'll admit I haven't gone through the options where either Morgan or Elgyem is drunk because it feels the least likely out of everything. Also that would require me to have been poisoned n1, in which case... why??]]

"I see no reason to suspect either I or Morgan of being poisoned last night. I still believe the evidence points to Madeline as our demon. If I am correct, we will simply win on the spot. Even if I am wrong, I am certain we have already eliminated one evil. If the game somehow still persisted after Madeline were eliminated, this would be definitive proof of which intel was false, which would allow us to promptly solve the game. But I believe the game will simply end."

Vote: Madeline @Inkedust

 

[Persephone]

“Aww, love you too, horsies! Anyway, my ghost has been underperforming lately. For shame.”

[[I was busy or very tired the last two nights and couldn’t do a more in-depth analysis of the thread. I would instead like to go through the players and give a read list again.

First, though, it seems basically certain our mafia composition is Demon-Scarlet-Poisoner. There aren’t enough outsiders for baron and a spy wouldn’t have taken two nights to kill Dave.

Rui: Mechanically confirmed town

Dave: It’s technically possible he isn’t town, but it seems highly unlikely.

Watt: Mechanically confirmed town if there isn’t a spy.

Rocky: The lack of other outsider claims means he’s confirmed town.

Madeline: Totes town, guys~~~

I honestly don’t have a solid explanation as to why I’m town other than me being scum would require either of my accusers to be lying about their teammate for… some reason or for the exact chain of events where Morgan was not poisoned N0 but was N1. I don’t know why scum would have poisoned Morgan when their inforole claim was that soft, but it’s certainly possible. They did seem to know more about bloody clocktowers than the rest of us.

…maybe I should shut up here.


Morgan: My gut says town. Their big snare for me was so galaxy brained and kind of ill advised that I can’t see scum falsely claiming it. She accused me after Elgyem did. It would be so much simpler just to say “yeah I checked [set not including me] N0 and then Madeline N1 and she read as the demon.” The fact that she didn’t do that tells me that she did, in fact, execute her plan and is town. But I could be wrong here.

Drake: I have nothing to confirm him as scum but the horse’s neigh and basic positioning. If Morgan isn’t scum, then Drake must have been. Mayor is also a very easy claim to make and then justify saving until the very end.

Malachai: I have nothing on him one way or another. Ravenkeeper is another claim that requires nothing of him but also sort of tracks on not immediately claiming. He’s playing this perfectly whether he’s town or scum. So my thoughts on his guilt are naturally inversely proportional to my thoughts on the horsies.

Rui: I maintain that they played Day 1 perfectly whether town or scum. If they are scum, it would require the horses being drunk or scum or maybe poisoned, but I don’t know why someone would have poisoned them N1. It’s not impossible, especially since I’m very skeptical of the horses. But I also wouldn’t be voting for them right now if they were still alive.

Elgyem: I just don’t know. Voting for someone you would later claim to know the innocence of could be scum being very excited to bandwagon someone to death. I’ve certainly been there. Or it could be a new player being overly conscious of their optics without fully thinking things through. I’ve also been there.

But, really, why not confirm that Rui was innocent when she had the chance? I could see a new player rushing to make their information useful. It’s not even like they were trying really hard to stay under the radar since she soft-claimed an inforole that could work on multiple nights. That’s a good way to get yourself killed.

Spectrier / Glastrier

Undertaker is very easy to fake. There‘s also a play I don’t understand. I might be amenable to changing my opinion if it can be explained.

Why claim D2? I don’t have any Clocktower experience, but once the undertaker is claimed it seems so likely they could be poisoned that they stop being at all reliable. Was the information that Rui was a drunk worth it? Since there’s no risk of night kills silencing you forever, I think it would have been safer to wait a bit. Unless you want your very unlucky scum buddy to be able to participate freely.

(Also, can you provide the soft claim / hint you supposedly made on Day 1 for having an info role? I just tried to find it and couldn’t.


My gut is telling me that it’s probably Elgyem and the horses, but I feel a lot more confident in the first.

VOTE ELGYEM @Inkedust ]]