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[MAFIA WIN] Second Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

Seren

Lurking
Pronouns
He/Him
Partners
  1. sableye
[[To the people who've voted Chappie so far without expanding on it much, I wouldn't mind hearing more of your thoughts, if any, on how likely you think it is for her to be mafia, and how willing you'd be to lynch her if she still wanted to play. I worry that the fact that AbraPunk wants to stop playing is going to make it too easy for people to go "oh well, let's lynch her because she wants to stop playing" and leave it at that, reducing potential useful reads that could be generated from what people think about the chance that she's mafia.
[[ I don’t know if I’ll have time to make a proper post on my thought before end of day due to work so I’ll just leave it at this for now and hope it clarifies my thoughts better:

I know Abra wants to drop out, and that really is my main reasoning for voting her. I’m not really confident either way in what her alignment is, but I do feel like revealing that could be useful to figuring out just how she was involved in everything else going on regardless.

I mean, yeah it would suck if she really was town but if she’s not going to play further anyway the only advantage to leaving her alive is that it takes one more kill for the mafia to win later. I’m honestly perfectly willing to believe your reasoning behind why you think she’s mafia anyway, especially because it might give some clues regarding Spark/Braixen by extension.

I will admit I’m probably a little biased too in just wanting to believe that your theory is correct, too, but that mostly stems from the fact that I’ve been having trouble properly voicing my thoughts coherently all game and mostly they have just lined up with yours so far. And also I’m enjoying the Miyako/Tefiren dynamic going on.

Anyway, if anyone has any other thoughts, as I’ve said, I’d be happy to entertain them and change my vote if someone thinks there’s a better target tonight (although, again, I probably won’t be able to make a long post supporting my reasoning why until next day phase.)
 

Seren

Lurking
Pronouns
He/Him
Partners
  1. sableye
[[ tl;dr : Regardless of Chappie’s alignment, I feel like flipping her will give us the most information out of any other possible targets at the current stage, unless someone has any better ideas. ]]
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
Pronouns
she/her
Tefiren's attention was caught by the sound of a loud clunk, like a big heavy stick being tapped on the ground nearby - that Human? He peered out from the branches to see that she'd approached his tree and was looking up at him in it. She'd... come to talk to him?
"Um... You just kinda... took off back there. For what it's worth, I believe you. I mean, I think you're on the right track. You've been working the hardest at this and I think you've gotten a lot of them to consider what you've said, even if they, uh... might not look like it." She chanced a look back at the group, only for a moment. Motley crew, indeed. "But either way, we'll figure it out in the end, right? So, um... why don't we go back over there and you can help them out? Gods know we need all the help we can get." She continued smiling up at the tree, waiting for some kind of reaction.

Tefiren stared at the Human for a moment, puzzled. Of course she thought he was right and good at the game, he'd already known that about her, but... why had she come all the way over here to tell him that?

But still... she had a point about some of the other things, too, much as Tefiren didn't really like it.

If he wanted to win this game, he had to talk to the others. He had to convince them he was right, or they'd all make stupid decisions and get rid of the wrong people. (Well, except for this Human with the stick here, apparently. She'd listen to him.)

...This was annoying. This part of the game wasn't nearly as fun as the rest of it.

"Fine. Fine!" he said. "But only because I'm doing this to win! This stupid 'voting' thing means that everyone has to get it right, too. Otherwise I could just do this all myself."

With that grumbled complaint, Tefiren climbed back down from the tree and followed the Human with the stick as she led him back towards the group. She kept smiling at him the whole time. He didn't get why.

Back among the group alongside the stick-Human, Tefiren threw a very quick glance over at the thunder cat. He didn't walk closer to her than he needed to, and he definitely didn't think about why she was lying curled up on the ground like that.

"So, we're getting rid of her today, obviously!" he said all of a sudden, perking up just a little and managing to find some of his usual energy (though still not feeling nearly as excited about all this as he had earlier). "But not just because she wants us to. We're doing it because I'm right, okay?"

He glanced around at the group, trying not to look too closely at any of them, though his gaze couldn't help but linger on the funny-arm Human, the big dark bird and the purple fox for just a little longer than it should have. Maybe he wouldn't say anything more about them. At least not for today. But that didn't mean he wasn't still right about them, as well; he just hadn't figured out how to convince everyone else of it yet. Doing that was part of the game, too.

"And if you don't understand why I'm right about her, then..." He trailed off and glanced at the floor, then at the Human with the stick. She was giving him a look. (but not the bad kind)

Tefiren huffed a breath and turned back to the rest. "Then ask me. I can explain it!"

Yes. He could do that! He'd done plenty of explaining why he was right and others were less right for all of this game, and the previous one. He was good at that. It shouldn't matter whether or not he was doing it at anyone because they'd asked him to. If anything, that should make it easier, shouldn't it?

(Then why did it seem harder?)

[[

help what are people skills

also I love Miyako being perceptive enough to realise that if she tried to make this about his feelings, he'd just insist he was fine. Very correct of her. Tefiren is always fine, obviously!

But more importantly, I'm echoing the sentiment Tefiren expressed here: I don't want people to be lynching Chappie today just because she's basically asked us to, but also because they understand my logic of why it's more likely than not that she's mafia and would have seriously considered lynching her anyway. So if there's something you still don't get about it, please ask. Tefiren is trying, you guys! (And then I will provide a non Tefirenspeech translation for you because he is still not great at this communication thing.)

Anyway, I guess I might as well finally get my official vote out. Here's hoping this D3 instance of me making everyone lynch the bus driver who 'accidentally' killed Chibi on N1 and is giving up and letting us lynch them goes better than last time. (Part of the reason I was so hesitant to lean on this at the beginning of the day was because of my bad history with doing literally exactly this.)]]

Vote: Chappie.
 

Dragonfree

Moderator
Staff
Location
Iceland
Pronouns
she/her/hers
Partners
  1. butterfree
  2. custom/scyther-mia
"My role is potentially beneficial to town, but it has a low floor fer performance an' requires skill to get the best results. I'm smart, but this is only my second time in one of these twisted situations, so I'm not expectin' to get anythin' out of it, necessarily. So, I will sit tight, take my notes, an' wait fer my moment. If anyone wants to speculate about what a person with this or that or the other ability might wanna do t'help Town, y'can be sure I'll be payin' attention. Alright, next item on the agenda..."
[[Just wanted to drop this quote in here as interesting potential evidence that elyvorg might be on to something with him having been a jack of all trades - asking for people to speculate about "what a person with this or that or the other ability might wanna do" could apply to anyone, but perhaps especially a JOAT. Also makes sense, if he wasted a one-shot inspection on Dave N0 but got blocked, that he'd want to get something out of it by probing for what could have caused it.

Re multiple bus drivers, I'm not actually sure how Negrek has GMed it in the past but for at least some possibilities it could have been others were targeted. What comes to mind is like...

- one moves before the other; whatever the first swapped onto the shared target then gets swapped onto the second bus driver's other target
- actions can't be swapped more than once; the ones originally targeting the shared target go to one of the other targets (at random or based on a set order), while the shared target gets targeted with everything that targeted either of the others
- actions on the shared target actually get duplicated towards both of the others (a bit nuts, what are you even going to do with inforoles)]]
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
[[
v̴̡͔̖̋̄͋͘ͅö̵̝̻̠͎̱́̍̇͆͌t̷̛̫͓̬̄̔̽͘e̸͎̊:̵̮̺̫̹̔̓ ̷̨̙̫̮͔͑e̸̟͍̩͊͝͝l̸̰̗͒̎̀̇͌y̸̢̰̜͉̜̐̆͊͘͝v̷̨̛̳͍̪̱́o̷̳̪̰͎̽͊̑͘ṛ̷̪̲̌̄́g̴̬͇͗̂̾
]]
 

Inkedust

Harbinger of Sunrise
Location
Pokémon Square
Pronouns
she/her
Partners
  1. ninetales
From below his perch, Altair listened to the ongoing discussion, counting the votes in his head. In dramatic fashion, Altair jumped off his vantage point, landing on the offwhite ground. He grinned before scanning the gathered crowd; searching for a certain three.

First, he looked towards the boy with the mechanical arm, refusing to break eye contact. "I'm sure you’re a good lad, just a tad confused. Don’t you make me regret this." He proceeded to walk towards the curled up luxio. Aside from a few feeble whimpers, she hadn't made a single sound. His voice was gentle. "Lass, it looks to me that your fate is pretty decided, but I ain't having any part of it. Just doesn't feel right to me, even if you are one of them Mafia. Yveltal have mercy."

He turned his back on the luxio, placing himself in the center of the group of illusions. "I still have my vote and I sure as hell ain’t gonna waste it. I was a bit hasty last time but I made sure to put some thought into this one."

[[Aaaaand here comes the point where I shift into OOC. As you’ve noticed, I’ve decided to add some initial flavour into my morning reads, as well as some additional explanation/reasonings as to why I feel the way I do about certain players. If I do not elaborate on a character's placement, then that means that my feelings from this post has remained the same (I stg if it doesn't link again):
HARD TOWN
Nefari
Tefiren
Dave

TOWN
Kyros

SOFT TOWN
Mewtwo
  • Though his position on my readlist has remained the same, the reason behind it has changed. I’m getting some good vibes with his current play, however, the reason I put him here is because of his Doctor claim. Assuming that there are two Doctors, one for each alignment, my reading of him will be completely dependent on how Wes flips. If Wes flips Innocent, then that’s not gonna be a very good look for Mewtwo (as windskull said). If Wes flips Mafia, however, I’ll be convinced that Mewtwo is Innocent. Of course, there might not even be a Mafia doctor and overdose was just thrown into the game to prevent “follow the Cop” strategies but this uncertainty keeps Mewtwo here for me.
Alexander
  • Pretty much the same reasoning as my last read but his initial insistence to get the (potential) Vigilante to claim does give him a bit of the side-eye.
NEUTRAL
Braixen…? and Cold Fusion
  • Haven’t made many posts, so I can’t get a good read on them. Of the two, I’m more confident of Cold Fusion and he’ll most likely be gaining a Town read from me in the upcoming days. Braixen…? on the other hand, just needs to post a bit more before I can get a proper read on them.
Wes
Chappie
  • Definitely a very shaky reading now after considering all the points made against her, but there are also explanations that point to her being Innocent, so I don’t feel right voting on her, even after Abra announced her departure from the game. Very unsure Neutral.
Miyako
  • Still dunno how to feel on this one but she has been reading a lot more neutral today than on D1/2, so Miyako has a good shot at turning my almost-scum read on her around. I definitely would like to hear Tefiren/elyvrog’s reasons for thinking she isn’t suspicious, though.
SOFT SCUM
Namco
  • By process of elimination, Namco has become my least confident read of the day. I’ve been thinking of what Dave said about them near the end of D2 and I feel inclined to agree? Sure, Mellow could just be busy but knowing that lurking is a pretty known strategy for avoiding suspicion and the fact that they’ve been *just* active enough makes me raise a brow. If I’m voting for anyone, it’s going to be them—if only to put on some pressure (since the majority looks to be going for Chappie).
Keep in mind, I wrote this out the night before posting this, as I would not be able to go as in-depth before EoD happened if I wrote this out in the morning, especially not on mobile, so I may miss a bit of new info that happens overnight in these reads.

Okay, back to Altair making an ass out of himself.]]

"The luxio has resigned herself to fate it seems, so instead of piling on, I'm going to give my vote a more practical purpose; to gather information. So, I'll be voting for that feeble mockery of a god, to try and get it to open that yap of theirs. Unlike the lucario, they've been keeping it shut in a way I don’t like, you see. So…" Altair pointed accusingly towards the miniature 'Lugia'. "You better start talking."

Vote: Namco
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
Pronouns
she/her
Tefiren suddenly snapped to attention as he was hit with a sudden, chilling thought, piercing right through his mind. He took a few paces back instinctively, hints of undergrowth and bracken rippling in the malleable ground beneath his feet.

The think-talky one, the one who'd said he'd tried to protect Tefiren a couple of nights ago, wanted to get rid of him.

What? There was something weird about this. Not just about the think-talky one saying it out of nowhere with no explanation, but the way he'd said it, the kind of thought it'd been. What was going on?

[[no seriously, what is going on, Equitial please explain, and if you won't explain, everyone else please help me figure out what the hell this is supposed to be, I am nervous]]
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
[[
1621106110001.png
]]
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
Pronouns
she/her
[[can I get confirmation that this was a joke and have you unvote, please? chatlogs help but I am still scared

---which is to say obviously that Tefiren is fine, just confused, obviously]]
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
[[
'tis only a joke. sorry.

I'm actually going to vote: Chappie with a short explanation I'm writing right now
]]
 

elyvorg

somewhat backwards
Pronouns
she/her
And then, the moment was gone, as Tefiren was suddenly greeted with the feeling in his head that it'd all been a joke.

He stared hard at the think-talky one. They hadn't seemed like the type to do that sort of thing. Some of the rest of the group - the Human with the stick, and a few others - were looking at him weirdly. Apparently the think-talky one had only sent that thought to him and nobody else.

Tefiren whole body was still filled with a sort of energy; he wasn't sure whether he wanted to fight the think-talky one, or dash back to his tree. He settled for neither, instead just baring his teeth and hissing at them. He didn't really know why. He just wanted to. The think-talky one needed to know that their joke wasn't funny.

It wasn't funny.

[[aaaand Tefiren will never trust Mewtwo again, good job.

On my end, joke accepted! Especially because it got such a reaction from Tefiren. But seriously, I was panicking for a moment thinking Equitial had somehow duped us all with the doctor claim and had some kind of custom third-party or mafia-aligned role that, like, had a one-shot ability to guarantee someone's lynch that day if it posted the vote in that creepy font. Yeesh.]]
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
[[so basically in RP canon this was Lexx's spirit somehow communicating through Mewtwo and playing a prank on Tefiren, right? Seems like the kind of thing he'd do, from what I could gather about him. Too bad Tefiren has no idea and is going to hold a grudge against Mewtwo for that.]]

oh good headcanon, yessssss
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
[[
I am so tired but I want to roleplay Mewtwo's POV to that, ahhhhh
]]
 

Fusion

Da ba dee, da ba di
Location
Egg.
Pronouns
Him/His
Partners
  1. zoroark
Haven’t made many posts, so I can’t get a good read on them. Of the two, I’m more confident of Cold Fusion and he’ll most likely be gaining a Town read from me in the upcoming days.

As he had returned to a meditative position on Nimbus, Fusion's tail swish back and forth in thought. He wasn't surprised he was seen as neutral, more so relieved. He shrugged, and spoke to the uh... voices above the characters. Guardian Spirits. Players. Whatever they were. "Hey, I just don't have much to say. I'm reading back on everything everyone's saying, but I don't think I'm processing everything as finely as the rest of you."

"That being said... I apologize for not having much to contribute at any given time, and I thank you all for not thinking me as scum for it," he said with a sincere nod. "If something does catch my eye, I'll bring it up as soon as possible."
 

Namohysip

Dragon Enthusiast
Staff
Partners
  1. charizard
  2. milotic
[[Hello everyone, I am at the dentist. Sending what I had last night before I passed out. This was intended for many hours ago]]

"And so once again," Alexander said, "we have no headway on who wishes to vote for someone. On the day when perhaps it is the most crucial." He crossed his arms. "I do not know if the Mafia would be very willing to rid themselves of town dead weight if it turns out to be the case that Chappie is innocent. But they could also leave Chappie alone if, of course, she is actually Mafia..."

[[The rest was written now]]

And all things considered... it seemed everyone else was coming to a similar agreement for various reasons. Alexander, however, said, "I do not think, due to the various ways that Chappie has been behaving, that she is Mafia. But I also do not think that keeping her for the Mafia to be rid of is of any benefit... and because there is so much doubt over the actions taken, the hypothetical innocent flip will be what we need to get more information. The Mafia will not strike Chappie because they want the doubt to propagate and stall our planning. It must be us.

"Mewtwo, Wes. Do NOT overlap tonight if you can help it. And whatever information roles the rest of you have... think carefully about who the Mafia may interact with. It will likely be people who have not been deemed suspicious, but are indeed among the town. Dave, Elyvorg. Those two need protection. But if there is a Mafia doctor, I do not know if we can safely heal in a straightforward way.

"Rrgh. And I do not like this vote, either, but it seems our hand is being forced by a plummeting morale. I have no choice but to vote for Chappie after all this has been weighed."

[[Echoing Alexander: how can we arrange our actions such that the Mafia would have no way or a very small way, to interfere? What assumptions are we making about their tools?]]

[[Vote: Chappie]]
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
[[
meh, brain mush--warning: prob more than a little disorganzied. tl:dr is that 1) Abra has more mechanical evidence for them being scum and 2) their flip will give us the most info out of all the players (for my part, if Abra is guilty I'd turn my eye to Wes next)

For my part, I wouldn't lynch someone if I didn't think they had a good chance of being scum, so Abra being inactive isn't a major reason, at least. I think that Elyvorg outlined a good explanation of why their Bus Driver claim would be more unlikely for innocent than scum. I'm always going to go for a more mechanical reasoning than an intuitive one (as with Wes), as there's way less room for error.

Also, as Seren briefly mentioned, Abra looks to be able to give us more info than other lynching possibilities. Compare with our other discussed targets today: Wes and Namco.

Namco

If we vote Namco, they haven't been doing much and haven't claimed. We do not gain much extra info from their flip.

Wes

If we vote Wes, we get info regarding a Mafia Doctor. If he flips guilty, that means we can probably assume that his role was such Mafia Doctor. If he flips innocent, that means either a) there was no Mafia Doctor (who has claimed at least) or b) I could be Dr. Scum, but guys I'm looking at my role PM rn I'm telling you it's good

Abra

We don't really learn anything mechanically, but if they flip Mafia we can make some good guesses as to the Mafia's composition. Abra was almost certainly a Bus Driver to go through the claim, and their claimed swap was probably truthful as well. (That makes Spark more likely to be innocent, though really in any case Spark/now Zoroark!Braixen is more likely to be innocent in any case, because both ways suggest they were targetted by the Mafia.)

The thing I like the best, however, is the reasoning that Abra being Mafia Bus Driver makes it more likely that there's a Scum Doctor. If Abra flips Mafia, I feel the presence of a Mafia Scum Driver means the overdose wasn't an accident. That's pretty valuable; right now I'm shaky in Wes's scumminess, but I'll likely go for him next if Abra's also scum.
]]
 

Equitial

Ace Trainer
Pronouns
he/him
Partners
  1. espurr
  2. inkay
  3. woobat
  4. ralts
"Mewtwo, Wes. Do NOT overlap tonight if you can help it. And whatever information roles the rest of you have... think carefully about who the Mafia may interact with. It will likely be people who have not been deemed suspicious, but are indeed among the town. Dave, Elyvorg. Those two need protection. But if there is a Mafia doctor, I do not know if we can safely heal in a straightforward way.

[[
Oh right, should probably get this discussed for innocent!Wes. So @HelloYellow17, I don't know what you've been doing but my method to try to avoid overdoses was this:
  • gather all the people I think likely to targetted (active players who didn't seem sus to me)

  • weight them by how likely they are to be targeted by scum. I assigned each candidate a weight of 1, 2, or 3,, with extra weight given to experienced players (like Chibi), players mechanically suggested innocent (like Elyvorg), or those who seem like they might have powerful roles (like Bench, alas). For example, both Chibi and Elyvorg were in my pool like 3 times N1, while Bench was in there twice last night.)

  • once everyone is weighed, used https://www.random.org/lists/ to draw my ultimate target out of a metaphorical hat.
Now that there's a chance of a Mafia doctor, I'm probably going to try to make it more unlikely who I'll ultimately pick??? Maybe by only giving select players a maximum of double weight, especially now more people are getting more sus and my pool is smaller.
]]
 

HelloYellow17

Artsy Whimsical Nerd
Pronouns
She/Her
Partners
  1. suicune
  2. umbreon
[[OKAY big post time, here we go

First of all, someone asked who I targeted on the first 2 nights. I was not allowed to begin using my role until N2 for....reasons, I guess? I don't really know, perhaps to prevent too many healer clashes too soon in the game? I'm not sure. So the only player I have been able to target so far was Arctozolt last night. @Equitial I'm tagging you because I can't find your specific post to quote and I don't have the energy to dig for it, BUT I do agree that we should keep our targets random for now, since I can't yet confirm your innocence and you can't confirm mine.]]

Wes' head was aching from all the theories flying around--not that this was unusual, though. He'd been struggling to keep up with everything since the first day.

He dusted himself off after the Hydreigon pounced on him--holy hell, that was an experience he would never care to repeat. He'd rather face down that Tyrunt with no weapons at all, ten times over, than have to stare up at those three heads with their vicious fangs again.

By process of elimination, Namco has become my least confident read of the day. I’ve been thinking of what Dave said about them near the end of D2 and I feel inclined to agree? Sure, Mellow could just be busy but knowing that lurking is a pretty known strategy for avoiding suspicion and the fact that they’ve been *just* active enough makes me raise a brow. If I’m voting for anyone, it’s going to be them—if only to put on some pressure (since the majority looks to be going for Chappie).

"I have to agree that this looks suspicious," he muttered, casting a glance over to where the Lugia was lurking in the shadows, apparently snoozing. They were a Lugia, for Arceus' sake; did they really think they could avoid being noticed altogether?

[[Obviously the Lugia thing is just RP flavor, I'm not gonna sus someone just because of their character lol. But I agree with Ink that the lurking has been...suspicious. HOWEVER, I will not be voting for Namco just yet, and I'll explain my reasoning further. But if they survive the night and continue to only lurk into D4, my vote is very likely going to land on them.]]

Wes glanced at where Chappie sat, curled into a ball and shutting out the world. [HOVERTEXT] She looked...so much like Kohna, curled up and whimpering like that, and the realization stabbed at him like a cold shard of ice. [/HOVERTEXT] It seemed that even in this dimension, he was letting others down, and he couldn't help but feel somewhat responsible for Chappie's current state...

He approached the Luxio and knelt at her side, brushing a comforting hand over her head. "You did your best," he said quietly. Then he stood and turned away from Chappie, giving her the space she needed. At the very least, she could rest peacefully soon...clenching his jaw, he squared his shoulders and promised himself to do better. He would keep fighting until all those guilty were found and helf accountable.

[[I will be voting for Chappie, though not just because she is dropping out of the game. I'll admit, if she wasn't dropping out, I'd be eyeing Namco more closely, but also the inconsistencies in her defenses that Dragonfree and others have pointed out have also made me change my stance quite a bit. I was pretty certain she was town, but after reading these recent theories, I'm really not sure anymore. At the very least, we'll be able to get some info based on which way she flips.]]

This is partly why I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around all of this. When I suspected Lexx might have been an arsonist target early on, it was written off as "sub-optimal play", as well as the flavoring not being fire, that the flavoring didn't matter. But it looked more like the residue of some sort of psychic explosion to me, which is why I mentioned it anyway (otherwise, why bother mentioning the scuffle marks and twisted ground at all in Rascal's/Lexx's death scene? No other death really shows the results on the ground other than lynching someone, far as I've seen. Or at least that I can remember off the top of my head). But now, for a reason I'm not entirely following, we do believe the psychic mark flavoring is actually true, despite it looking to me now like Lusamine went up in flames (the bright light?).

That... doesn't say "arsonist using fire" to anyone else? Because I feel like I'm reading the exact opposite of what other people are seeing. I mean, it looks like, at least in Dragonfree's take, that neither mention of the marks on the ground after a death (Rascal/Lexx, and Lusamine) is an indicator of how the death happened. I'm just... very confused on why we seem to suddenly think the favoring now matters and that this isn't it.

(Granted, this is entirely ignoring the logicstics of "it makes more sense for it to be a Vig kill" but... would a vig kill look like someone erupting into bright light? Idk. Everyone talks about how the arsonist kills are supposed to be flavored in a way that makes it obvious, but somehow they aren't being treated like the flavor is right for any particular kill so far. Would that just mean that the arsonist has yet to kill anyone (and probably won't since we suspect it was Lance anyway)?

Does any of this make sense or am I just overthinking this?

Again, it does mention scorch marks specifically, doesn't it? I hope this isn't a case of "the first kill wasn't flavored enough to be obvious so the second kill tried to make it flavored as such but by this point everyone changed their minds on it being psychic rather than fire and no longer see scorch marks and an arsonist kill" because... that would be bad.

That said... I'm absolutely willing to believe Dragonfree and elyvorg if they think there is no other arsonist and Lusamine's death wasn't what it looks like, but... I dunno, it just looks like that's what happened to me, and I'm glad I'm not alone in that, at least. I absolutely wouldn't put it behind Negrek for including multiple third-party roles tbh, considering how many experienced players are/were in this game. Gotta keep spicing it up, yeah? ]]

[[You are not alone in being confused, Seren! Honestly I was observing the first couple deaths too, and really thought that one of them was likely to be an arsonist kill, and Lusamine's death just SCREAMS arsonist to me. But if the Arsonist is still alive, who was Navar?? What other third party roles are there that he could have been?

But I'm torn, because it's also very possible Lusamine's death was a vig and that the arsonist really IS gone. Ugh, I don't know, I really don't. And just for clarification, a vig is a Town role, correct?

Anyways I'm just replying to say that I've been following these theories and I...honestly don't know which one is more possible. I'd like to roll with the second one because that seems the most straightforward, but Mafia is often anything but a straightforward game, LOL.]]

Hard Town:
Dave: Just to be absolutely clear, Dave is 100% confirmed innocent because of Lexx's read, correct? I just want to clarify because I honestly missed that original conversation and feel like I'm still missing some info lol.
Tefiren: confirmed

Soft Town:
Kyros: Playstyle seems town to me.
Alexander: Same
Fusion: Mostly neutral and only barely in soft town territory, but I'm getting Town vibes for now

Neutral:
Miyasatokakato: Just haven't been able to get a solid read, honestly. I want to put her in soft town but I'm still figuring her out.
Mewtwo: Was going to put them as hard town because of their claim, but then someone else brought up the possibility that they could be a mafia doctor and now I'm paranoid lol.
Braixen: Just haven't seen enough of their posts to get a good read yet.

Suspicious:
Altair: Getting kinda scummy vibes, but honestly I'm horrible at reading people so. This might not mean anything.
Namco: Have stated my reasons above for why I'm reading them this way.



I apologize for not providing a paragraph for each reading and why I'm reading them that way. A lot of them are genuinely "iahdfoihksbf I DON'T KNOW" and I'm still reading through previous posts to glean more info. However I am running on a schedule and probably won't be able to get all of this done before I have to work for the rest of the night, so I'm posting my reads now. I'm hoping to kick off D4 with more in-depth analyses.

Vote: Chappie
 

HelloYellow17

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[[
Oh right, should probably get this discussed for innocent!Wes. So @HelloYellow17, I don't know what you've been doing but my method to try to avoid overdoses was this:
  • gather all the people I think likely to targetted (active players who didn't seem sus to me)

  • weight them by how likely they are to be targeted by scum. I assigned each candidate a weight of 1, 2, or 3,, with extra weight given to experienced players (like Chibi), players mechanically suggested innocent (like Elyvorg), or those who seem like they might have powerful roles (like Bench, alas). For example, both Chibi and Elyvorg were in my pool like 3 times N1, while Bench was in there twice last night.)

  • once everyone is weighed, used https://www.random.org/lists/ to draw my ultimate target out of a metaphorical hat.
Now that there's a chance of a Mafia doctor, I'm probably going to try to make it more unlikely who I'll ultimately pick??? Maybe by only giving select players a maximum of double weight, especially now more people are getting more sus and my pool is smaller.
]]
[[Hello this is very helpful, thank you!]]
 
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