Tefiren watched the messy Human sitting and thinking to himself, and was suddenly struck with the most weirdly clear realisation: he was thinking Tefiren might be doing this as a Mafia plan
, and that innocent people shouldn't guess
Well. Hmph. If the messy Human was going to ruin
the chance of getting more guesses like that, Tefiren might as well just go ahead and announce it all now. He'd been meaning to do it before the day ended anyway, just in case the Mafia were even stupider than he already thought
they were and messed everything up - and it was starting to get dark.
"Do you all want the answer now?" he began, shaking off his disgruntlement at the messy Human and starting to bounce on the balls of his foot-claws. "How do I know who They - the Mafia - tried to catch last night? How do I know? How do I know?"
He looked around the group, grinning all over his face, feeling a storm of giggles bubbling up inside him.
"Because it was me
they tried to catch!" The giggling burst out of him as he remembered the thrill of the chase he'd been caught up in last night. not just all this talking stuff, the thrill of a chase, the likes of which he hadn't felt since--
"I didn't see who it was, but someone was trying to catch me, and I got away, just like I always
do! I didn't need anyone else's tricks
but my own!"
He was still buzzing with energy as he looked around the rest of the group. The messy Human was glaring at him. Some of the others looked like they'd been expecting more from this, too.
"See? A lot of you thought it was more complicated than that, but the answer's so simple
! The Mafia tried to catch me because at least one of them must have known that I'm the best
at this game. But they still underestimated me
! Telling everyone this doesn't put me in any danger at all; why would it? Nobody can catch me
! That's what I do
The others still didn't look nearly as impressed as they were supposed to. Well, no matter - he hadn't even got to the real
"So, then, why did I even make you all guess, if the answer was so simple all along?" He giggled. "That's the cleverest part! The whole point of the guessing game wasn't really the answer
. It was seeing how people guessed
He continued to pace around the group excitedly as he explained. "See, see, the Mafia know
they tried to catch me last night. So when I said I
know who they tried to catch, they'd easily figure out the real answer for how I know, and why they failed - that it's because I got away! I made it sound like the trick was more complicated than it was, which made most of you think it was an especially clever and unusual sort of trick - but the Mafia would be less likely to think that, because they'd already know
how simple it really was!"
He looked in turn at the fun Human, the fire cat, the think-talky one, the tall fiery fox, and the big dark bird. "So all of you who guessed like you thought it'd be something really complicated? Like you thought it was a mystery? Like you weren't sure it was me
who got chased? You're probably not Mafia! ...Well, maybe
someone in the Mafia was clever enough to realise what I was trying to do and deliberately guessed something more complicated than what they really thought. Maybe one of you is that clever. But everyone's guesses are information
! I got information
from all of you, just by talking
! I didn't even have to use one of my usual sorts of tricks!
"And maybe some of it was
good information. Because, you?" Tefiren turned to face the dark dragon. "I'm not so sure about you. You were definitely listening to me, but you didn't guess
for a long time, even after I told you I knew it would be safe. You just dodged the question entirely. Are you just that bad of a guesser you didn't want to embarrass yourself? Or... were you afraid
to guess, until the messy Human had already guessed right so you wouldn't look suspicious? Hm?"
That's it. That's the gambit I've been attempting since Tefiren semi-claimed last night.
. I know who the mafia targeted last night, because it was me. (Well, it was me barring very unlikely edge cases involving misdirection or a trigger-happy vig.) I realised that I could potentially make use of this nugget of information I had that only the mafia would otherwise know about by having Tefiren give partial information that'd be likely to tip the mafia but not others off to the reason the kill failed, and then, knowing that the mafia were more likely to know the answer, watch who was willing to speculate on it, and how.
And, yeah, Tefiren would never admit it, but I'm perfectly aware this doesn't actually amount to that
much. The information I've managed to gather from this is still very ambiguous, and maybe the mafia managed to figure out what I was up to and deliberately give the sort of response that I'd be likely to read as innocent. But it's something
, okay, shush, this was the best thing I could think of to do with the fact that my role has a complete lack of a night action, let me have this, dammit
I would be giving a slightly different reason to what Tefiren would as to why this isn't particularly bad to make public at all, but I still feel like it might be better if I remain somewhat vague about this. Suffice it to say that I weighed this up and decided that the potential information gathered from this gambit is worth any potential downsides of the claim.
So, for everyone's perusal now that I've made it known what I was going for, here are the posts with people's "guesses". Some of them weren't exactly a guess
as such, but any kind of indication of what they thought about my role and who was targeted is an indication of how likely it was that they knew the truth.
(and an actual guess higher up on this page)
(plus two further Daveposts higher up on this page)
Jesse (higher up on this page)
In particular, quite a few people seemed to be assuming that I, or the mafia's target if not me, would be in danger of losing something important if I fully roleclaimed, which pretty strongly suggests that they weren't thinking of the bulletproof option, so I have a pretty good feeling about these people.
Dave did ultimately guess bulletproof, but I'm reading that as genuine bewilderment as to what I was up to and Dragonfree being smart enough to guess the simplest option despite not actually having any knowledge influencing it.
It's probably not strong enough evidence for me to feel comfortable doing a Day 1 lynch about it, especially when we have so little time left to discuss it properly, but I am vaguely suspicious of Alexander for acknowledging what Tefiren was doing but then still not actually voicing any kind of speculation as to the nature of his role like Tefiren was encouraging everyone to do.
But mostly, now that I've played my hand, I'd like to see what everyone else makes of all this, too.